UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@rappinpapsoda 

Jiri's takedowns are a joke. Only way he would sub is from the clinch or if Alex takes him down and he gets a nice reversal. I think the fight will be a stand up brawl.

@CrimsonChinGuru 

craziest part is the playground is 15 min from my house. Wish I would've known but he isnt staying in the greatest of neighborhoods.

Ricci vs. Godinez
Tabatha Ricci, DEC
29-28

His a BIG PiG you troll-ey !

@Kniferusty 

Damn that was a low blow, think i'm a have a sad spliff after work now 
I lost both my dogs over this last 2 years, ****s tough my dude 🙏

Rębecki vs. Roberts
Roosevelt Roberts
Indo pela odd desajustada msm achando o rebecki favorito

@nosukow I was feeling pretty good about Castaneda but the fact he’s requesting another catchweight concerns me. If it was because he’s sick again, then I know his cardio is going to fail him. If he’s healthy, then it was likely due to the fight being moved a week earlier. Unfortunately, we don’t know why so now I’m very on the fence; probably going to wait till weigh ins to make a definitive pick

@joeyveneri 

All he needs is one TD.  He did sub Glover after all. I know he was tired but a sub is a sub.

Not the easiest card to predict

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, TKO, R3
Jiri is wild and I think the odd movements win here.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Rooting for Tom but Sergei hits so ******* hard I don't think anyone can stay awake.

Ricci vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, TKO, R2
Loopy way stronger.

Gordon vs. Madsen
Mark Madsen, DEC
Draw?

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, DEC
This Is A Close Fight.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R2
Going With Tom Aspinall With This One.

Andrade vs. Dern
Mackenzie Dern, DEC
Dern Going To 30-27 Andrade.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R2
Matt Frevola Is Good But I Just Think BSD Is So Much Better Tbh.

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Diego Lopes, SUB, R3
Tough Fight For Lopes.

Erceg vs. Costa
Steve Erceg, TKO, R2
Steve Erceg Shocked Me With His Performance Against David.

reported.

Lmao explain it then. Andrade literally said she is taking these fights to pay for her divorce. She got a new contract for taking the Blanchfield fight and has been taking these fights to get paid. Why would the ufc be forcing her to take these fights? It’s not like they need title fights for ppvs she is asking to stay active and they’re obliging. 

Your original point is she said she was making more money outside of fighting so the ufc is giving her bad matchups to bury her. That is just incorrect because if they were why did she recieve her biggest contract yet for taking the Erin fight? And you’re acting like she’s being forced to take these fights, bro she is SIGNING THE CONTRACT. Nobody is putting a gun to her head to sign the contract. In fact, the fact she’s getting a 4th fight after being finished brutally in her last 3 shows the ufc in fact wants to keep her around. They just cut taila santos for no reason, if they really wanted Andrade gone then why is she getting another fight? They could just cut her without having to pay her her large show money

And furthermore, why Andrade of all people? She’s a fan fav (as far as wmma goes), also in exciting fights, and is a company woman. Literally checks every box for the ufc to keep her around. So many other fighters have mentioned other forms of income outside of fighting (and much more harshly than Andrade mentioning only fans money) and they’re still around 

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 1:35 PM ET *

You look at the fights she has had, all submission losses and then the so called "match-up" against Dern, you realize that she is obviously going to sign the contract she has to she can't get out of it, so whoever is picked as her opponent which has obviously been all picked as the worst match-up for her, there is something going on here.

Maybe I'm wrong, probably just being an idiot right now but you cannot deny this is pretty weird that after all these lossses she is been giving Dern. Did she accept this because she felt she needed to? No, she would have been given a different opponent than one who can submit her as the others have.

I'm not saying aliens. honestly sometimes I wonder what the **** I'm saying and I tell myself wolfgang **** bury this and **** you cause **** but I mean this is just such a weird match-up. It doesn't maybe sense at all, to me. Do you think she would pick these match-ups? Or could possibly be forced into them? Run out her contract and cut her.

I don't mind, I don't think I am proper, but this just seems strange to me. 

I disagree. She took both the blanchfield and Suarez fights on short notice. I can’t explain dern and xiaonan but the fact she is taking these short notice fights not caring about the matchup is what’s leading me to believe she’s fighting for paychecks. She knows she’s not fighting for the belt again after the xiaonan loss, she is on the biggest contract of her 17 year career, and she has bills that need to be paid. She is staying active to fight out what’s left of her career and get paid in the process. 


If the ufc was trying to get rid of her, there are many other ways they could do it, instead of having to pay her large sums of money just to pad someone’s record. I mean ****, this year alone the ufc has probably had to pay her close to a million dollars, if not more. If they wanted her gone for monetary reasons then they would not be giving her more fights. It’s a known fact Dana likes people who take short notice fights. Andrade is getting paid a lot of money and Dana gets to add a ranked women’s fight to whatever ppv/fight night he wants; it’s a win win for both parties, I don’t think there’s any wrongdoing here 

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 2:32 PM ET *

@flying_frontkick 

before Greg checks your ass

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 2:33 PM ET *

First i hope you and your families are all safe and doing well. Here is the breakdown for UFC 295. 
Steve Ecreg -102vs. Alexander Costa +160: There is no great value on either side. However our official prediction is Steve Ecreg. From a value perspective we suggest passing on this fight. John Castaneda -135 vs.Kyung Ho Kang +114: Okay here is where things get interesting. The implied probability for Kang is sitting at 46.73 percent. Based off our analysis we believe Kang should be a slight favorite here. Thus keep Castaneda out of your parlays and you can thank us later. Tabatha Ricci +140 vs. Loopy Goodinez -180: We are going to pass on this fight. However, from a value perspective there is some value about 5 percent on Ricci if you think she can get it done. On the other hand it would not be shocking at all if Goodinez wins but at 64.29 implied probability she is about 10 percent overvalued here. Conclusion: Pass. Nazim Sadykhov -122 vs.Viacheslav Borschev +162: Nazim is a great fighter and alot of people will be bullish on his name alone. We urge caution as in every combat sports fight both sides need to be thoroughly considered. Borschev is an excellent, at this time possibly overlooked striker. At +102 we calculate an edge of approximately 5 percent on Borschev. On the other hand Nazim is overvalued here. Thus, we would urge caution for those betting on Nazim. Furthermore, Nazim’s wrestling has failed to improve despite that being a central focus at the camp where he currently trains. Taking all this in mind we suggest keeping Nazim out of your parlay.Dennis Buzukja +230vs Jamall Emmers -285: Most people are choosing Emmers here however with an ip of 74.03 percent we would highly advise you leave him out of your parlay. Conclusion pass on including this fight in any parlay. Jared Gordon -198 vs. Mark Madsen +164: At 66.44 percent implied probability gordon is overvalued here. Conclusion Madsen or pass keep out of parlays... For further analysis check out the substack in the bio. Best, MMAWISE