UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Welp, there go Kang and Borschev's chances. GG everybody.

@thesnake I was thinking the exact same thing🤣🤣🤣

I was feeling good about slava claus underdog pick but now Nostradamus is picking him to win

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 3:05 PM ET *

I think I'm over thinking this 

@AyyLmaonnaise 

And I don't want to have my ******* checked 

@*****_swaggins 

Went to get my prostate get checked, the doctor was behind me I heard him put this massive amount of lube on his finger and he didn't even warn me just stuck it up there and said "can you feel that?" I thought yeah and why didn't you buy me dinner before this. Borderline ****. 

Jessica Andrade is Jessica Andrade she is not just one of all brazilian Wmma fighters she is one of the 3 big stars- Amanda Nunes,Cyborg and Jessica,after this losing streak they will feed her with some easier fights and in the next max 3 years she could be a title contender again she will fight until 40yo this now is just a small part of her career

@CharleeGrevy 

Dvorak is sucks brotha, Costa going break his leg

62.0% - 80.6%

Aspinall Pavlovich is such an interesting fight.

I would say Aspinall is a little bit faster and a bit cleaner with his technique and has shown more tools in terms of his grappling. Pavlovich has so much power and an insane reach though. Aspinall has relied a bit too much on his speed to avoid punches for my liking in the past, backing straight away from his opponents with his hands low and leaning back. He did show some improvement in that regard in his last outing against Tybura though, circling to his right with the right hand coming up to guard as he exited the pocket.
If he does his usual step in, deliver a few quick strikes and then back out I can see Pavlovich exploding back with his massive reach and clocking Aspinall with the second or third strike unless Aspinall is disciplined with his exits.

I can also see Aspinall turning this into more of a grappling fight. Pavlovich looked really lost against Overeem on the ground after getting easilly foot-swept then promptly finished from the top, granted it was 5 years ago and in his UFC debut. We've seen Aspinall with some good entries and top control.

Cardio wise it's really a mystery, the longest fight of Aspinall's fight career is a 9-minutes amateur decision win over a decade ago. Pavlovich has some decision wins but the last one that wasn't a sparring match against a friend was 7 years ago. A lot can change in 7 years. I feel like we don't really know what we can expect from either guy if the fight goes long, especially if it starts at a high pace. I don't expect it to go over 2.5 though.

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, TKO, R3
This is a fight for the fans right here. I've been dreaming of seeing this since Pereira was still fighting at middleweight. Both of these guys love to stand and throw bombs. Pereira is more technical and has scary power, but Jiri has relentless pressure and throws everything at you from all angles. I'm going to go with Jiri here because judging off of the last couple of fights Pereira is starting to slow down. He's already been knocked out by Izzy and he just looked okay against a 40 year old Jan. At 36 years old and being in so many wars in kickboxing and mma I think his chin may be beginning to crack. Jiri throws way too many unorthodox strikes to not connect clean at some point. When he does, it's lights out. Not confident in this pick at all though because Pereira is just as capable of putting Jiri's lights out due to how low he keeps his hands. That's a dangerous game to play with someone like Pereira.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R2
If anyone can survive the first round with Pav it's gonna be Aspinall. He's got the IQ, footwork, and hand speed to be able to skate out of range and pick his shots for a round. If he survives, I'm betting on Pavlovich gassing hard in the 2nd. Aspinall breaks him and gets the ground and pound finish, possibly a SUB.

Andrade vs. Dern
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
Props to Andrade for always taking the tough fights in both strawweight and flyweight. I don't see her beating Dern though. She's been submitted in 2 of her last 3 fights and Dern's jiu-jitsu is dangerous. Dern's wrestling is average at best, but if this fight hits the mat just one time it could end quickly. I gotta believe she gets her down at least once in 15 minutes, even if it's in an unconventional way.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R1
This is going to be a car crash! Both guys love to come forward with insane pressure and brawl. I'm picking Benoit here because I'm more confident in his chin. He steamrolls the steamrolla, adds another finish to his resume, and cracks the top 15.

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Pat Sabatini, DEC
This is a bad stylistic matchup for Lopes. We've already seen Brito and Evleov use wrestling and top control to beat him and Sabatini is a high level wrestler. He's got great jiu-jitsu and should be able to avoid Lopes' relentless submission attempts too. 29-28 UD unless Lopes puts him down early then jumps on him for the finish.

"Jessica Andrade is Jessica Andrade." - 

@FcBayern 

A true wordsmith!

Upset is going to happen in the emmers or van fight. Probably emmers losing by decision

* Edited at 11.09.2023, 5:45 PM ET *

Something I noticed while rewatching Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura, while Tom completely dominated him, Tom was slipping a lot while moving around, losing his footwork. I don't know whether it's because of his leg not fully healing, or the mat was slippery or just him not stepping correctly. Tybura landed a couple of weak shots after the slips. If those slips happen against Pavlovich it's game over.

@titanofcreation Thank you, I will make a parlay of Castaneda, van, and aspinall

Woot woot!!!! 

2 days before fight night and I am not banned. 

My mental fortitude is amazing. I have resisted all temptation to confront the clown shows. 

👏 👏 👏 

Procházka vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, TKO, R3
Lucas Tracy said R3 Jiri KO so I'm picking Alex R3 KO.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Sergei: Shows up... KOs Aspinall in 1... Leaves arena... Goes to Casino... Lose everything in gamba... A new contender approaches.... Repeat.

Andrade vs. Dern
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R1
Battle of the divorced, either Andrade R1 KO or mid-late rounds Dern Sub/Decision.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Matt Frevola, TKO, R1
STEAM ROLLLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Pat Sabatini, DEC
A CLOSE EVLOEV LOSS DOES NOT MAKE YOU A GOD, Sabitini will win a tough decision (top control will play a large factor into this decision).

Erceg vs. Costa
Steve Erceg, DEC
Erceg looked good against a trickier Dvorak on short notice, Allesandro Costa in comparison is a lot easier to read but a lot more dangerous with the power. I have no reason to believe Erceg has a glass chin so I think he gets it done.

Ricci vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, DEC
If there is a finish, I would pick Ricci to get it done. However, I believe this will go to a decision and Loopy's pressure will be the deciding factor, sure she's lost to Hill but afterwards it looks like she's sealed those holes in her game.

Rębecki vs. Roberts
Mateusz Rębecki, TKO, R1
Roberts gonna need to be a sniper to win this, 9/10 times Rebecki pressures and finishes Emmers quick; too many angles he can approach and win this fight.

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev
Viacheslav Borshchev, TKO, R2
Nazim Sadykhov is probably the best pick if you had dosh on this fight, he's more well rounded and has a grappling advantage (as far as we know) over Slavaklaus... BUT I AM A BELIEVER, I WANT TO BELIEVE BORSCHEV HAS UNLOCKED THE TDD UPGRADE. R2 LIVER SHOT TKO.

Gordon vs. Madsen
Jared Gordon, TKO, R3
Madsen too old and needs to have a significant grapping advantage to win his fights, his striking is nothing to ride home about. Gordon might be coming off a concussion curtesy of Greens forehead but his grappling and wrestling is proven; his striking is apparently underrated seeing how he was beating Green on the feet. I think he's gonna get a dub at home by decision or possibly late rounds G&P.

Kang vs. Castañeda
John Castañeda, SUB, R3
Castaneda is a short stocky wrestler with proven pressure and enough G&P skills to put the hurt on Kang, if Kang had better TDD and cage control I would consider him as a live dog but he doesn't, I predict Castaneda G&P against the cage into a RNC.

Van vs. Borjas
Kevin Borjas, DEC
Why is Van a -240? I don't see anything Van has that should make him anything more than evens against Borjas. I'm gonna pick Borjas as an underdog, split decision.

Buzukja vs. Emmers
Jamall Emmers, DEC
Christmas tree record predicts Emmers dub, that aside I think he's better everywhere (unfortunate since I want the NY guys to win).

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Sergei inside 3 mins via tko gnp after dropping Tommy boy early

 Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
 aspinall arm triangle 2nd round 

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Pat Sabatini is gonna expose Diego Lopes for a fraud and Philly will bear witness. The Eagles are 8-1, the Sixers are 1st in the East, and Philadelphia is on fire! The Phillies came up short but like Meek Mill said "we here to win Championships". Lets ******* go! - Trophies!!

Gordon vs. Madsen
Mark Madsen, DEC
Why is everyone sleeping on Madsen? Gordon barely beat Paddy by clinching and a couple takedowns where Madsen is better. Guida can't be held down and Jared will take longer to get up.

Procházka vs. Pereira
Alex Pereira, TKO, R1
I love Alex, He is just on totally other level of power. He is a monster in a human flesh. Left hook TKO RND1 , Jiri will wake up and not sure what planet he is at...