UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@HydroThunder 

Who is Night Train Lane's main in League?!

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Yeah, Blackshear is an old leather boot.  No doubt about that. That is probably his strongest attribute as a fighter and then his wrestling.  It's just he is a bit limited everywhere else.  Bautista I feel the jury is still out on him a bit but he is improving.  I think it will be a good fight.  As impressive as that twister was, I simply don't know how much to put into a win like that over Jose Johnson.  I knew Blackshear was going to either sub him out or cruise to an easy decision.  I do not feel Jose Johnson is a UFC level fighter (which is tough to say for sure with how diluted the pool of talent is).  I think Jose is a good time in Fury but the skill level difference is glaring.  So, I don't take anything away from what Blackshear did to him.  I just don't know how to rate him based off of that performance alone.  That was a great showing but he also has had other showings where you watch the fights and yeesh... not always the greatest results against guys that are not even close to Bautista.  So, I kind of think Bautista is the A-Side here but if Blackshear can work the wrestling and then land enough on the ground, it could be a really tough fight for Bautista and maybe Blackshear could potentially steal it.  I do think this once goes the distance.

amen, God bless America 🇺🇦🇨🇳

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
Holobaugh has decent power in his hands but I think Hubbard being the younger and more active fighter bodes very well for a fight like this. I'm banking on the cardio and overall completeness of Hubbard's game to carry him to a decision, and I think the current -160 line is quite good for a parlay piece.

Vera vs. Munhoz
Marlon Vera, DEC
I've gone back and watched some of Munhoz's fights, and while I think he's live for a Decision win, this is about the only path I see. Munhoz has whipping calf kicks and some strong punches, as well as a nasty guillotine game. Is Vera going to get caught in a guillotine though, I don't think so... and I don't see Munhoz wanting to take down Vera. That said his path to victory is through winning a stand up point battle, which I find trouble believing he can do after watching his fight against O

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, SUB, R2
Love O'Malley fights and this one has about as good of a buildup as you could imagine. I think O'Malley will be a top contender for a very long time, but to me this isn't the bout he wants. Sterling as cringe as he is has the wrestling to absolutely smash Sean. Sterling will dominate him unless O'Malley can land a very damaging shot earlier on. I see Sandhagen as the next in line in this division too, and his round 1 loss to Sterling isn't looking the best. O'Malley has a very similar frame, and probably far less skilled wrestling. I think the fear of a big strike could slightly drag this one out, but I see Sterling finding Sean's back around the middle of the fight and ending it via RNC.

Zhang vs. Lemos
Amanda Lemos, TKO, R1
Not much to say, taking a shot here on someone who I think deserves a much tighter line in Lemos. I don't have immense confidence in the pick, but I think Weili lacks any head movement and will likely walk forward into the heavy jabs of Lemos. I think Weili is stronger, and FAR more dangerous should this end up in the clinch, but I have a feeling that Lemos can land that big strike early on that'll stun Weili and turn the fight. I think Lemos on the scorecards in a tight contest, or more likely by an early TKO stoppage.

Hubbard v Holobaugh. Highly likely to go to a decision and either guy could win. I cap it 60/40 for Hubbard. Just a little bit better cardio and more likely to have success in the wrestling.
He's a very passive fighter though whereas Kurt is always willing to brawl and go for it. Hubbard is younger but Holobaugh has fought much better opposition in the UFC. I think Hubbard is the minute winner but Holobaugh is more likely to have the big moments in striking which could win him rounds. 

Holobaugh by dec is offered me at +425 so obviously given my read on it I have to sprinkle a little something on that but the pick on tap is a Hubbard lean. I have just fight goes the distance as well which should cover a Hubbard win most of the time since he really doesn't finish fights even on the regional scene.

* Edited at 08.16.2023, 3:51 PM ET *

Brad Katona -155

Cody Gibson +135

I originally picked Gibson, but then I realized that he's 35. I thought he was 30, but I mistaken him for Jason Knight. Half of those dudes on TUF were blonde/dirty blonde dudes from the South, so it is hard to tell them apart. I originally liked Katona, but after this season of TUF, I just find him annoying and egotistical. He's still probably going to beat Gibson, but I really hope that they put him against someone really good like Daniel Santos, so we can see him get knocked tf out. This season of TUF was trash, and the only dude I liked that I think could have success now is Austin Hubbard

@danromanick 

You wrote - "Half of those dudes on TUF were blonde/dirty blonde dudes from the South, so it is hard to tell them apart"

Seriously? What an ignorant comment. Smh

* Edited at 08.16.2023, 5:05 PM ET *

They say that 35 is the new 25. Or at least thats what i say to myself in the mirror. 

I don’t care about age in the UFC within reason, because some people are shot at 30, and then their Glover winning a UFC belt at 42, 

A lot of the time, fighter shotness is like cars, it more about miles then how old the fighter is 

* Edited at 08.16.2023, 5:30 PM ET *

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, TKO, R2
I could see this fight going either way but looking at sterlings past fights his takedown percentage is really bad and a big flaw in his game is when going for the takedowns he leaves his head vulnerable and can get caught with knee (aljo v marlon) (aljo v yan) I think Sean uses this lands the knee and gets a tko

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, SUB, R2
I think zhang can find a tko or sub round 1 or 2 but im leaning to a sub in round 2

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R1
Neil magnys been tkod twice in his career once in round 1 and once in round 4 in this 3 round fight i think ian garry finds a tko round 1 or 2

Aljo is going to cry like the baby he is when he loses his belt on Saturday 😭

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Mario Bautista, DEC
would go blackshear if it wasn't so short notice

Katona will wrestle**** his way to becoming the only 2-time TUF champion. It's funny that half the "prospects" from this season was older than the veterans they fought.

* Edited at 08.16.2023, 6:57 PM ET *

Da’Mon Blackshear has never won a UFC fight outside of the APEX. He is a wrestler and the Apex is a smaller cage. Do with this what you will when/if you place your bets