UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@rappingpapsoda he tore his hymen in training

Wow so excited for Blackshear to attempt this turnaround. 

If he had a full camp, or honestly even like 2-3 weeks I’d be all over Blackshear, but this quick of a turnaround will for sure make me more hesitant. Curious to see opening line and if this will be a catchweight or what

I hope it’s a catchweight. I don’t see da’mon being able to make 135 twice in a week; unless he kept his weight way down but still

Just thinking out loud here, but didn't they announce Garbrandt was out the night Da'Mon fought? If he left the building with an offer to fight Bautista, or even if his team just threw the idea at him without the UFC even involved yet, it's not inconceivable he makes 135 for this fight. All it is at that point is remaining disciplined and getting good rest.

However, even with that knowledge, Damon is 5'10 and carries a lot of muscle. There's absolutely no way he walks around anywhere close to 135. Even if he COULD make the weight for Boston, he shouldn't. It would be way, way smarter to just accept a 140 catchweight. 

da'mon is gigantic for the weight class and regularly struggles making 135 even after scheduled full camps

him cutting down to 135 again not only would greatly diminish his chances of winning this fight but i'm afraid would damage his career long term as well

couple of recent examples of how damaging double weight cuts in such a short amount of time can be are Taira and JDM. JDM didn't fully look like himself out there and Taira almost got ko'd and subbed by a guy he should have ran through

But having a lot of muscles is a good for weightcut, no? Muscles can be drained of water.

Also I have doubts about Natalia Silva. She proved that she has great TDD and nice kicks but she never fought a striker of level of Andrea Lee. She impressively won Leonard who is one of the worst FLW, and 2 pure wrestlers.

@supnavarili 

You wrote that wrong - you actually meant to say "Andrea Lee never fought a striker the level of Natalia Silva"

Typically in striking you either have the speed or the power advantage. This is a rare case where a prospect in Natalia actually has both, and is pretty accurate as well

@Kniferusty 

 I like Silva very much, she is very hot girl and exciting fighter, and she looked amazing so far. But she is untested, and Lee is her biggest test so far. Lee proved many times that she is good fighter and impressive style not always effective against higher level oppositions.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Chris Weidman, DEC
Scary

Lee vs. Silva
Andrea Lee, DEC
Going with Lee. She looked like a physical beast against Barber. Not too confident but throwing it out there

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Mario Bautista, DEC
Wow Da'mon is a real one for this.

@supnavarili 

Who in your opinion is the best striker Lee has fought? Whoever you name is not anywhere close to what Natalia is going to bring.

On 'paper' it's a test, but in reality it is not. Lee got her ranking by beating a mentally weak Cavillio & by out grappling Shevchenko. Think about it. That's how she got her ranking and she is an unworthy rank holder 

* Edited at 08.15.2023, 12:21 PM ET *

Going to follow my own Machine Learning model again and see how it goes. It favors Weidman heavily mainly because it doesn't use any injury data. Most fights this weekend do seem to have clear winners though, so I'm just going to pray that Weidman does okay. 

Link to model (all free, just doing it for fun): https://www.fightforecast.net/ 

* Edited at 08.15.2023, 12:49 PM ET *

Not feeling too many of the heavy favorites this week. It seems like there's plenty of value in props and a few underdog spots though.

Weili by sub is around +550
Lee is at ridiculous dog odds, around +280
Meerschaert at +210 vs a wrestler with only 2 rounds of gas is great, and Holobaugh and Munhoz are good dogs as well

@Biba 

Hey that's interesting to look at thanks

I never "feel" heavy favorites but I think almost all of them will win this week.

Ian garry trying to test the barbershop curse😅

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Sean O'Malley, TKO, R1
O'Malley by TKO or Sterling by submission or decision

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, DEC
Zhang is very durable and should withstand Lemos attacks and might finish her in late rounds.

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R1
I would bet on M Garry with (decision no bet)

Bautista vs. Blackshear
Da'Mon Blackshear, DEC
This should be back and forth with Blackshear dominating (more faster reaction, hitting hard and more accurately, very good grappling skils)

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
If this fight goes all the way to decision, Munhoz is your guy to pick

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, SUB, R3
Hard to tell, would not bet on this one

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Denis Tiuliulin, TKO, R1
2 power hitters. It should not go the distance. Tiuliulin will be backed up against the cage and find a good shot that puts Rodrigues away

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, TKO, R2
Petroski with (decision no bet) . If it goes all the way to 3rd round , Gerald will grind his way out, like he always does

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, DEC
Silva , no questions . Will definitely bet on her

Moroz vs. Silva
Maryna Moroz, DEC
Moroz will be on top of Silva most of the times. Moneyline on her

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Austin Hubbard, DEC
Will not bet on those 2. Not enough info to make more certain decision

@gliese58i 

Yes, this could easily be an all favorites win type of card.

Been looking into this fight more closely. Now convinced that this is going to be a very very close fight. I find it strange that only a few months ago people were saying Aljo was a fraud and the worst champion in BW history, And now suddenly I hear people are talking about him as the GOAT of the BW division. I do not understand this at all.

Regardless, he is a stylistic challenge that O'Malley has not faced before. And if and when he gets the takedowns he will have Sean in a lot of trouble. The main question to me is will he be able to catch Sean with a takedown before Sean catches him with a shot. Sean has really fast clean striking and feints and I could see a knee up the middle taking out Aljo as he ducks in. Also he looks like he is on all the best supplements now, but it wasn't too long ago where he was gassing out against Yan and sometimes even getting out grappled there.

Looking at Aljos recent wins, DQ against Yan who was much smaller, what I think was a robbery against Yan in the rematch, a win against a one armed Dillashaw and a very close fight I think he lost against a rusty Henry. Not very dominant.

I think if Aljo gets Sean down that will either be the round won or a finish (I think Sean can defend submissions well and Aljo rarely subs anyone) so control or a TKO may be more likely in a finish. 

But wow now he is fighting someone equally big as him with a similar reach, who will be the faster striker and better mover on the feet and will likely have decent tall man takedown defence at the very least and decent BJJ.

I still think Aljo wins. I still am picking him. But now I feel the best underdog on the card may not be Munhoz, it may be O'Malley. I may even bet him.

Stand Up Phase:  Garry is a surging contender so this will most likely be a chance for him to move up in the rankings. Between the two, Garry is the more dynamic striker with good, solid combinations and a variety of kicks. Also, Garry uses his jab very effectively to set up his combinations. Magny uses his reach advantage very well in most fights with 1-2 hook combinations and the usage of front kicks to the body and head. I predict Garry’s jab will be very effective seeing as how Magny is not known for much head movement and the significant speed advantage Garry will have most likely. After constantly stinging Magny with his jab, I can see Garry setting up combinations to land the high kick.

Clinch Phase:Magny is the more grinding and effective fighter in the clinch between the two. Magny’s use of the clinch to land hooks and knees tends to wear opponents down and allows his TD’s to be more effective. If Magny can tie up Garry consistently in the clinch and prevent Garry’s striking from being effective, I can see Magny eventually wearing on him and then getting to the back to land strikes or secure a TD. 

Ground Phase:Magny seems to be the more comfortable fighter on the ground, but this is mainly due to Garry being effective in keeping the fight on the feet with past opponents. If the fight ends up on the ground, I see Magny controlling and landing GnP on Garry until he’s able to secure a choke (most likely a DA or Anaconda). 

Prediction: Machado Garry wins by 2nd Round TKO  I predict Garry’s use of the jab and maybe push kick to the knee will be enough to stifle Magny before Garry can make his reads to set up his combinations for a finish. I could see the 1-2 with a high kick finish, that Garry throws quite a bit, to be very effective in this one.     

Abbreviations:TD: Takedown DA: D’Arce Choke GnP: Ground n pound 

* Edited at 08.15.2023, 5:16 PM ET *