UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Oliveira is one of those guys with a great record who’s super unimpressive come fight night. Marcos’s fight with Lewis was way more impressive imo than either of Oliveiras last 2 fights, he showed really solid striking and takedown defense which is all you really need to beat Oliveira from what I can tell

@pasta people are just looking at the records and stats of the two and making comparisons from there. Idk how you could watch saimon’s regional fights and be confident in this guy; he does everything wrong for a fighter you want to bet on. Predictable striking, bad gas tank, bad wrestling, and a “guillotine specialist” (biggest red flag)

* Edited at 01.21.2023, 11:36 AM ET *

Looking forward to it

I mean, Marcos could lose pretty easily. Like a 35-40% chance imo. People are favoring him here it seems, but not like Jailton or Lemos?

Other than agreeing he's not a good open mat, greco-roman style wrestler I couldn't disagree with you more about Olivera. There's nothing predictable about his striking whatsoever and he has a great gas tank.

Oliveira is going to win I feel.  I know Tap is favoring Marcos but Oliveira is the better fighter.  Don't let the undefeated streak fool you.  

You guys will see how **** he is

@foppa he was tired as hell against alday. He kept fighting despite being tired but he was slowing down hard. He’s slowed down before on the regional scene too

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, TKO, R2
glover has wrestling and wrestling is OP!

if Marcos looses you'll call him a can/******. lol. Its a tight fight to call. Don't be so invested in this one. If you really are so confident put your money on it before the fight starts and prove it. I know I'm not. 

What makes you think I’d call him a can if he loses? I have a hard time seeing how he loses this one. Not betting **** on it just watched tape and confident he wins. It’s gonna be a standup fight and he’s the better striker 

Did anyone see Anthony Smith weigh in? What is going on with his body, he looks like an old man. He use to have a much different body, maybe I'm being paranoid. Maybe he just hasn't been training properly strength and conditioning wise. 

From recent fights cards that's typically how some folks on here act. They feel all confident and give strong opinions, but when they lose they call them anything they can think of.. apologies if you are not one of them. seemed like a fit with the language you choose. 

I would say he is a more composed striker of the two, but they both have a very similar shot selection and Oliveira has a greater output. Reason why I am unsure who really has the edge there till the fight starts and they both try to implement their range. 

Smith is just the best available LHW to weigh in as an extra with Jiri, Jan and Magomed not in the picture. He's also coming off of an injury and definitely wasn't ready to fight. It's also kind of a respect thing because Hill was supposed to fight Smith until Magomed and Jan went to a draw. 

Smith obviously didn't try to make weight and is just being a good company guy showing up. Would honestly be a disaster if something happened to Glover or Hill because he very clearly isn't ready to fight and it wouldn't be for the belt.

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, DEC
hedging because i'm a fan of jamahal. i do think he'll land big at points, just not sure he'll be able to stay away the whole time and glover has the type of top game that is unforgiving if you make a mistake. hill has done a good job of staying upright in his ufc career, but the fact that santos got him down so many times has me thinking glover can too. would love to be spectacularly wrong though.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno IV
Deiveson Figueiredo, DEC
another close one that leads to a 5th fight because of what turns out to be questionable hometown judging?

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, DEC
gotta feel like burns has the advantage once he gets in grappling range and i'm not sure i see neil being able to keep distance the whole time each round.

Andrade vs. Murphy
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
size difference might not play too much of a role here, but i do think that murphy can hang in the clinch with her underrated strength. not sure how often she can get andrade down or if she can keep her there though so i'm thinking jessica can get the better of the striking in between.

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
fight starts, walker goes crazy and jumps right into grappling range, gets his back taken, finds a way out and goes crazy again. the question is only does he catch craig bad enough on the second burst to finish it or does he gas himself out trying to end up falling into an armbar/triangle? seeing how i'm 4-10 with craig and have only once been correct when picking him to win, i'll take walker.

Rua vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, SUB, R2
does kinda feel like a winnable fight, but i'd rather be surprised by shogun's ability to take shots and move forward than disappointed with myself for saying he'll outslug a 26 year old kid at this stage of his career.

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R2
robocop seems to be the bigger man and we've seen he can absorb a lot of damage and stay functional. i'll say he can weather brunno's early storm and find the pacing after brunno unloads a bit.

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, DEC
not sure what to make of costa, but moises' output usually makes for close fights if he can't just drag it down easy. i'll say he eats a few shots in order to get inside and tries to control against the cage.

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim, DEC
i have hopes that lazzez can keep it an outside affair and show off his technical striking, but i feel like gabriel will try to squash that space.

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
i agree with the bookmakers here, i don't think shamil will handle the pressure jailton brings.

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Luan Lacerda, SUB, R2
i'm gonna take a flyer here and say lacerda can threaten enough in the grappling to keep cody from pressing.

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim, DEC
feeling like ismael will be able to survive the early storm and start to dictate the pacing once terrance slows down.

Alves vs. Dalby
Nicolas Dalby, DEC
could be a fun one, dalby can take shots and keep pushing so i'll take the underdog to outlast warlley (as it seems much of the community has too).

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R2
fairn will be significantly bigger, but the layoff combined with her last win being 5 years ago is an obvious cause for concern. i guess the expectation is that nunes just walks forward throwing hooks.

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Saimon Oliveira, DEC
interesting seeing the pick % so different from the betting odds, maybe the size difference? i'm gonna stick with saimon just based on what seems to be better quality of competition.

TY @ foppa420

Thankfully everything is on track, and Glover and Sweet Dreams are going to war. 

Rua vs. Potieria
Potieira, DEC
It's definitely not escaping me that the UFC picked who they probably think is the worst LHW they have on the roster to try to send Shogun out with a win. Unfortunately, I just don't see it. I think Potieria will eventually hurt him bad and never let up.

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Rodrigues, KO
Murder, the sequel.

Moisés vs. Costa
Moisés, SUB
Crazy tough matchup for Melk in his debut. If he's able to stuff a few takedowns early and keep this fight on the feet he definitely has a chance. However, I think Moises is confident enough on the feet that he won't rush the takedown and will take his time. Once this hits the mat its all but certainly over.

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Lazzez, DEC
I'm on record all week saying I think Bonfims go 0-2 and that Ishmael actually has the more winnable fight. Lazzez is a very good first litmus test for Gabe but unfortunately I think it's probably a tad much for his debut. Lazzez has just such a crazy high striking volume and I see Gabe eventually getting overwhelmed.

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Almeida, SUB
Murder.

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Stamann, DEC
Probably my least confident pick on the card. I have to pick Stamann based off of the quality of competition he's fought but this is honestly not a great matchup for him. I think he gets it done with his typical hard fought 15 minutes of wrestling but will need to be near perfect. Lacerda is no one trick pony and has already won by a variety of different submissions. I will almost certainly be placing a small wager on Lacerda by sub as I think he has the best shot of getting a finish between him, Ferreira and Costa.

McKinney vs. Bonfim
McKinney, KO
Both Bonfims are legit but I don't think either of them got great matchups for their debut. If anything it really speaks to how high the UFC is on both of them. TWrecks was seconds away from finishing Drew Dober and getting a number next to his name. I think he gassed himself out looking for a career altering finish and cant blame him. Bonfim has good striking but it's only going to be a matter of time before McKinney lands something. Not everybody has Drew Dobers crimson chin and McKinney had him on the floor in literally 9 seconds.

Alves vs. Dalby
Alves, SUB
Not gonna lie this is one of the harder fights for me to predict on this card. Alves rarely sees a 3rd round and Dalby is decision master. Dalby is a solid fighter but he's not unbreakable. If Jesse Ronson can find your neck on roids, Alves can do it with the pop he'll get from the home crowd. Will be very surprised if this one goes the distance especially after Alves needed the towel to weigh in. He seems ready to go out on his sword as usual.

Nunes vs. Fairn
Nunes, DEC
I've put zero research into this fight cause I just don't care enough. Going off what I know about both fighters.

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Oliveira, SUB
I think the difference in experience and quality of competition ontop of the hometown crowd will be too much here for the debuting fighter.

* Edited at 01.21.2023, 1:22 PM ET *

@javerys okay thank you for your response. I’d say most of my confidence comes from the fact that I just really don’t think oliviera is a good fighter. I didn’t think he was good before he got signed and he hasn’t really impressed me since. I’d say that’s the biggest influence for me picking marcos. However, I was honestly impressed with his performance on dwcs. I know lewis was a punching bag but watching Marcos’s regional fights compared to how he looked on dwcs, he looked like a different fighter. He’s now training in america getting rounds with guys like shorty torres. I get fading him because his level of competition is awful (I can’t deny or defend that), but his actual skillset looks really good in my opinion. I was very impressed with his shot selection and takedown defense. Oliviera is best on the ground but the majority of his sub wins are his opponents trying to take him down and he then pulls guillotine. Marcos isn’t gonna shoot at all so that already eliminates the best part of his game. So now we’re talking about a fight that’s going to be almost all standup. Now saimon may try to wrestle but I really don’t trust him to get the fight down there. I’ll take the diverse striking attack from marcos over the sloppy striking of saimon