UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Guys, McKinney has a suspect gas tank, Ismael Bonfim is youger, a former successful amateur boxer and a 4-1 pro boxer. Ismael trains with his younger brother who has a similar hand speed and power to McKinney along with length and Gabriel Bonfim is a far better striker than McKinney. If you didn't see Ismael piece up 28-3 Nariman Abbasov on the contender series or Rangel Da Se in LFA who's a talented explosive striker, trust me...McKinney isn't a safe bet, he's a proven UFC commodity therefore a slight betting favorite but Ismael should win, doubtful he gets knocked out round 1, he's got solid, proven defense and comes from a great gym. Rounds 2 and 3 Ismael should pull away with the fight and take the decision. 

You don't gotta agree with me, I'm not saying bet the house on Ismael but I'd suggest you avoid adding McKinney to any bets, he isn't a safe one. Bonfim should be the favorite in my eyes. 

* Edited at 01.17.2023, 6:16 AM ET *

Burns wins

@khanate agree. Ufc is trying to build up bonfim here

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, SUB
leg ranking 2 or 3. This is all time bad match making off a canceled bout. after watching film on melk, I am shocked at the composure difference. He may train at Chute but I truly cant get behind this guy. TD defense is little to none, throws terrible looping shots, and his only composed strike i could note are his front kicks. Thiago by however he prefers.

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Mounir Lazzez, DEC
leg rank 4, maybe 5. Its tough to oppose a greatly talented brazilian fighter on his first UFC card IN his home country. but this is a lot of pressure. Mounir should be able to grind this fight out and come up with the more meaningful strikes. Biggest obstacles are his td defense must stay intact and MUST be able to get his back off the cage. Siding mounir and mounir by dec.

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
leg 3, maybe 4. Again hard to opposed a talented fighter in his own country. However, terrance is such a more developing and intelligent fighter than the public gives him credit for. his last few fights he has practiced excellent patience, timing, and well rounded skillsets. Im siding terrance by tko here.

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
leg ranking 1 or none. Think the public is reading the lines here. This will be the crowd hype fight for a killing. Dont like the line but it is what it is. Look for fight time under.

Alves vs. Dalby
Warlley Alves, TKO
leg ranking 4. Looking at this at near pick em odds perspective, i side with a home field advantage vs a "safer" fighter in dalby. Dalby is extremely talented so prepare for this to be a terrible take.

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, DEC
dont think this one will hit a card of mine. fairn hasnt fought in years but has a massive height advantage. never bet a womens line this wide.

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Luan Lacerda, TKO
leg 6 or GFC add. I do NOT like cody at this wide of a line. he walks into takedowns and has terrible striking defense, granted great chin and can scramble back to his feet well. Seems to have a doubt on all his opponents and then suffers the loss because of it sometimes. Luan is not great, admittedly, but sneaky striking and excellent submission throws can work sometimes*. Wide pick here but willing to throw bones on a surprising dog.

I think I'm with you on both Bonfims potentially losing. Ismael probably has a better chance of beating McKinney than Gabe does against Lazzez. Gabe is still kind of green despite being very skilled and Lazzez has two solid wins already in the UFC. Lazzez will also have some reach to work with.

Ismael is a little more experienced but is getting a guy knocking on the door of being ranked for his first fight. McKinney is right there with guys like Kutateladze, Alvarez, Moises, and Paddy. While Lazzez is probably a perfect first opponent for an undefeated prospect like Gabriel, I think somebody like Ricky Glenn might have been a better first opponent for Ismael.

I know Ismael is highly skilled and very well rounded but McKinney will land something eventually. Not everybody has Drew Dobers crimson chin and can survive a shot from T-Rex. 

Ismael Bonfim is the real deal to anyone doubting..

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R2
Very intriguing matchup. Obamacop is looking unstoppable lately. His first KO loss was to another Bruno who was 2-0 and is now 11-0. Jordan Williams did it. If Brunno gets top control early it could change the line for Greg. But we'll probably get the weird, old ref who doesnt stop anything and have a more tired Brunno who gets lit up in the striking in 2 and maybe 3. Lets see how long Brunno can power wrestle.

* Edited at 01.17.2023, 10:43 AM ET *

McKinney just doesn't have a bad cardio and is completely a one round fighter, but Drew broke him with ONE knee to the body that hardly landed and the guy wilted so obviously it's something he won't be able to fix, because it's not in this guys blood or genes to go 3 full hard rounds, let alone 5. 

McKinney might not have great cardio but he definitely has bad fight IQ. He just doesn't pace himself well at all. If he can ever learn how to do that he'll be very scary. 

The knee to the body by Dober that buckled him landed flush just below his sternum. Not only did that obviously hurt badly but it also probably knocked whatever little wind McKinney had in his lungs right out. McKinney has the power and athleticism to go much slower and really pick his shots. He didnt stop for a second in that fight with Dober because he came out guns blazing, hurt Dober immediately, and then never let his foot off the gas hunting for a finish. He landed a significant strike just under every 5.5 seconds.

It took him all of 9 seconds to drop Dober. He was riding a 5 fight win streak and arguably looking at a ranking with a win over a guy like Dober. I totally understand him smelling blood and never letting his foot off the gas. If McKinney paces himself, keeps the fight standing and only focuses on defense wrestling, he probably wins this fight no problem.

If McKinney is shooting takedowns at any point in this fight, he will lose no questions asked. Striking is the only area he has an advantage and it's a miniscule one solely attributed to his crazy power. Bonfim is a very good boxer and all he has to do is not get overwhelmed by the crowd and McKinneys power in the first 30-60 seconds.

I think even if he paces himself, he’s still liable to get out worked by the much crisper and technical striker in bonfim. I have to rewatch it, but I remember him getting clipped badly by gonzalez before getting the finish. The thing is, even if he paces himself it doesn’t change the fact he’s just a sloppy striker in general. I actually disagree with your point about takedowns, I thjnk that’s actually his easiest path to victory. You will notice bonfims three losses have all came by submission. Even if it’s against guys with a higher level of bjj than Terrance, it still shows somewhere that McKinney can beat him. Now, I don’t really think he will be able to capitalize on it, but that’s his easiest path to victory. I don’t see how he beats bonfim on the feet outside of his classic first round blitz and ko