UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, Dec.
If Neil Magney lifts and dumps Burns in the third like Rodriguez I'll loose my ****. That was nuts. "He thinks I'm a bot cuz my skin...Little does he know..  I'm him.."  JoeWo

* Edited at 01.14.2023, 6:30 PM ET *

 Tapology Survivor Game 89 is up!!!

https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/71539?page=1#post-1185161

Teixeira vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R3
My inner Brazilian fanboy wants Glover to do what he does best - take down and mount - but something tells me Hill isn't going to fight the same way he did vs Santos. If anything is constant with Hill, it's that he improves leaps and bounds between fights. For example, we saw him employ circling tactics against Crute right after he walked into Craig's guard. So I think he'll fight smart here, pile the damage up, win rounds and ultimately put him away.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno IV
Brandon Moreno, TKO, R2
I'm obviously backing Figueiredo here but the last fight with Brandon didn't sit well with me. He won the fight for sure, but he stole the rounds with big moments when Moreno got complacent. Moreno was winning a large majority of that fight and seemingly had Figgy on the ropes a couple of times too but for whatever reason (****iness?) just chose not to engage and follow up. Moreover, Figgy's chin isn't the same anymore. I remember Moreno dropping him with a jab in the second fight, and stunning him with a couple of jabs in the third. If he fights with the challenger mentality, I could see him picking apart Deiveson and walking him right into a TKO by punches.

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
I think Walker is finally starting to find himself. He looked measured against Ion, even remaining patient and waiting for openings when he hurt Ion - something we've never seen him do before. If Craig can't get it to the ground, and given Walker's physical stature that won't be easy lol, I think he gets dusted pretty quickly.

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, TKO, R1
Left hook as Magny extends on a jab. I've seen it happen too many times and Gilbert hits too hard

Figueiredo vs. Moreno IV
Deiveson Figueiredo, TKO, R4
I’ve been more impressed with figgy through three fights. Thought he won the first but it was close and definitely won the third fight. Moreno is crisper in the striking, but figgys power has been the equalizer in the first and third. I think Morenos chin has softened a bit through two wars and eventually all chins crack.  Figgy has also really shored up his takedown defense, which was giving him problems in the first fight. However, if he has a bad weight cut I will probably pick Moreno because we all saw what happened in the second fight 

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
I don’t know why, but I’m oddly confident in walker here. He’s not at risk of getting knocked out, and he has a big striking and size advantage. Craig has had a lot of success because of people just making dumb mistakes. Nobody has capitalized on the fact he can’t strike for ****. I think walker will just do some crazy **** like a flying knee and finish him in a minute

Andrade vs. Murphy
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R1
Murphy might be tough enough to survive to a decision but Andrade is just so dominant against anyone but the elite of the division

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R2
I worry a little bit about the size advantage and the overall annoying style of magny but I’ve just not been impressed with him recently. He’s starting to look really old; hate how he reacts to punches. I think Gilbert is just gonna put the pressure on him on the feet. No way magny is gonna wanna clinch with Gilbert cuz that will lead to grappling, where he’s at a serious disadvantage. I think Gilbert should easily win this

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R2
This is a great fight. Boxing vs kickboxing. I sometimes worry about Gabriel’s defense, especially against someone with such crisp striking as lazzez. I haven’t seen much of lazzez’s grappling but I know he lost to eldar eldarov who is a great grappler, so going to assume a big advantage there for bonfim. I think he can get this done standing relatively easy tho

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R1
Nunes is actually really bad but she’s fought nothing but cans so far. Not changing here as fairn is 40 and hasn’t fought in years. Not to mention she’s getting outclassed by girls who aren’t even that good

Rua vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, TKO, R1
Shogun should’ve retired years ago. Ihor is a one round fighter, but shogun is way too slow and washed to offer anything

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R3
I really like McKinney but hate he took this fight. Very dangerous fight against someone with no name value. He is suuuuper dangerous first round but is just super wild. While not on the same skill level, bonfim fought a similar style of “run at you throwing all the crazy ****”, and he handled it very well. Now, there’s a possibily that Terrance uses his wrestling early, which is actually very good. Ismail is a black belt, but has been subbed in all of his losses so that’s definitely a worry. If he can avoid getting slept, I think he will outwork McKinney and break him late. Real possibility he can lose early

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
I just hope shamil acrually shows up this time. This is gonna be a squash match

Alves vs. Dalby
Warlley Alves, DEC
This is a weird one. I can’t really get a good read on Dalby for some reason. All I know is I’ve never really been impressed with him. I originally thought alves was way better, but after watching tape I was kinda dissapointed. He should have a big advantage on the ground but can’t rely on him to come in wrestling heavy. If he decides to throw he should win. Going with him mostly because of age advantage and hometown advantage

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Luan Lacerda, SUB, R2
Matchmaking is really weird here. Idk why stamann is getting a debutant and LLL isn’t really known to anyone unless you heavily follow the regional scene. That being said I really like LLL. He is a gigantic bantamweight, and he has an 8.5 inch reach advantage on the feet. I will say Cody is the better striker because he’s proven against better competition, but LLL’s looks serviceable; keeps range with his kicks, has solid boxing fundamentals. I really like his bjj. He’s one of those guys who realizes it’s very difficult to win fights off of your back, so if he knows he won’t sub you, he will try for an omoplata sweep. Cody stamann has a big experience advantage, but he’s kind of an above average fighter; he’s decent everywhere but can be beaten everywhere by someone who is just better. As I said he’s probably the better striker, but is gonna be at a reach disadvantage. He has made lots of mistakes on the ground before and has struggled with grapplers throughout his career. Kind of a risky pick but I’m willing to bank on being right

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Daniel Marcos, DEC
I’m shocked oliviera opened at -190. I really don’t like this guy. Bad gas tank, predictable striking, bad wrestling, and only real ground threat is guillotine or bust. I was pretty impressed with marcos on dwcs. I do worry about gas tank but I think the main reason he got tired is because Lewis ate all his shots, wrestled constantly, and never stopped pressing forward. Marcos tdd and striking looked very good.

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, SUB, R2
I have mixed feelings about Moises but I think he takes this one. I like melk and he’s pretty solid everywhere, but like Brunno I don’t think he’s ready for this level of competition. I think he may have his moments, but Moises has a big advantage on the ground

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R1
Brunno actually isn’t bad; fights like a smaller, wrestling heavy version of Robocop. However, I think this is too much too soon. He’s massively undersized and has no time to prepare for the beast that is Obama. I could see a world where he clips Obama because he gets reckless but seem unlikely

* Edited at 01.14.2023, 11:17 PM ET *

Teixeira vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R1
I totally understand why everyone thinks glover will win; hill showed he does not have a great ground game or takedown defense, but after rewatching the santos fight, he actually did pretty good at getting up right away and negating any damage from happening. Now, glover is 10x the grappler santos is, but we have seen (especially in the jiri fight) that he has gotten a little sloppy in his old age and makes mistakes. On the feet I think hill has a really big advantage. I think his striking is very underrated and he has a lot of power. People also have a lot of faith in glover despite being 43 and coming off a crazy war. You usually are never the same after wars like that and glover being at 43 doesn’t help at all. Glover also gets rocked in every fight but somehow finds a way to win. I don’t think he will just be able to eat hills shots the same way he used to. Plus, whether or not you think hill is overrated, you can’t deny he has ridiculous power. He could easily sleep glover with one punch

* Edited at 01.14.2023, 11:21 PM ET *

What now people think hill is winning how fickle?

71% picking Dalby? Did no one watch his last fight against old man Claudio Silva? He looked terrible and tbh he looked a bit slower to me. Alves hasn’t looked so great either but he’s definitely looked a lot better than Dalby has. Also the Wells loss hasn’t looked bad at all either.

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, SUB, R3
In this fight, I'll go with Glover, but it's not gonna a walk in the park for him. In the fight against Santos, Jamahal showed that he has good TDD, and I do think he'll be able to stuff some takedowns from Glover. Nonetheless, the old man will eventually take Hill down, control him and finish him with some gnp around the 3rd.

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R2
If Walker fights smart just like he did agains Ion, he should easily win this. Just don't get caught on a sub and you will be fine. Walker by finish.

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R2
If Burns takes it to the ground, he should easily finish Magny. On the feet, Magny could give some problems just because of his reach, but even so Burns should be fine. With a win here, would we get Burns x Belal ?

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R2
I watched Lazzez x Al Hassan recently and Mounir has a chin on him. Really good on the feet, but I couldn't see if his ground game could handle Bonfim's one. If this stays on the feeet, it'll be competitive. If it hits the ground, Bonfim probably is better and could sub Lazzez. I'm going with the brazilian by either a sub or a decision win.

Rua vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, TKO, R1
Another legend getting slept in his farewell. Very sadly. Would love to see Shogun finishing this guy, but it's unlikely.

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
I want to go with Bonfim in this one, but Terrance is so wild that's always difficult to predict his fights. Ismael seems to carry a lot of power as well, but I highly doubt he has faced anyone with the power that Terrence possesses. Either McKinney finishes him quickly (could use some ground game) or he gasses and Ismael finishes him.

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
Let's hope Shamil shows up this time, cause I want to see Malhadinho back in action.

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Daniel Marcos, DEC
Oliveira is wild on the feet and has a nasty guillotine, but that's it. If Marcos doesn't take this to the ground or doesn't gas badly like he almost did in his DWCS fight, he's gonna win.

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R2
Brunno has some real power and could finish Robocop in this one, but I can't ignore the fact that he's coming on short notice against a killer in Rodrigues. With a full camp, I think he could make it competitive, but given this circumstances, I'll go with Gregory by finish.

Am Really liking 
Josiane nunes
McKinney fight not to go distance
Jailton finish
Glover fight not to go the distance
Just waiting on the odds to be released for the finishes to see what we working with

I don’t understand why Abdurakhimov and Oleinik are still in UFC. Oleinik is a very good person, but he just can’t compete at this level anymore. 

Oleinik got cut after Latifi fight as far as I am concerned 

MAIN EVENT TEIXEIRA VS HILL 
Its honestly either a sub for Glover or Standing TKO in round 5 for Hill but then what's next? 
If UFC 282 ended with a DRAW we should do this, Jan vs Volkan so that Jan has an easier fight to see if he can even compete at this point because r4 and r5 of his bout vs Ankalaev were brutal, and Volkan is good he is a standup fighter who should punish Jan for bum rushing like he did vs Thiago Santos. then if Teixiera wins its Teixieira vs Ankalaev and NEXT THING WE DO is Rakic vs Hill. Knee injuries are cursing sh*t but Rakic is still for me a guy we should talk about when we think title eliminator. But thats when Glover wins. IF JAMAHAL WINS THEN THE FIGHT TO MAKE IS NOT ANKALAEV VS HILL then the fight to make is Hill vs Pereira due to Pereira and Teixeira being teammates and Alex should not fight Izzy at this point cause after that amount of punishment that Adesanya. And then UFC can capitalize on Champ vs Champ matchup its either Pereira with 2 titles or Jamahal walking away as STILL. Then situation at LHW gets so much ****tier and I cannot think of a good matchup in that division other than Jan vs Volkan. 
FIGUEIREDO vs MORENO 
Loser of this fight should move up to Bantamweight, and honestly Im all in Figueiredo cause if Moreno wins then Figi's situation is getting sh*tty as **** and I think Moreno would be fine in bantamweight if he gains some mass. If Moreno wins then Figi is in tough spot, I don't think UFC is gonna do them 5th fight unless this fight ends in a no contest/draw. I mean they can fight till the end of time but cmon boys Flyweight was having worse 2022 than welterweight cause it was still all about Moreno and Figueiredo
CRAIG VS WALKER 
We all know that Walker is not smart, but can we all blame him for that? I think if Krylov went into Paul's trap then Walker is even more likely to fall into Craig's trap. Though I must say that in the unpredictable world of MMA I can see Walker subbing Craig with an RNC but I'd rather see Walker bless us with a effective KO. Still Im probably more sold on Craig 
Andrade vs Murphy 
HOLD ON A SECOND ARE YOU GUYS TRYING TO TELL ME THAT JESSICA ANDRADE IS A FEMALE?! I didn't honestly know but if she doesn't win Im going to Bydgoszcz and then tell you about how many bones I got broken from just going there
Burns vs Magny 
After how much damage he exchanged with Chimaev im honestly not sure how Burns is gonna do but Im prolly just gonna go with Burns by decision. It takes Usman to knockout Gilbert

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, SUB, R3
First time back with fans in Brazil in over 3 years this place is gonna be wild. I think they could have put better Brazilians on this card but it is what it is. Hill has power, speed, heart, and pretty good cardio but he was getting taken down by Thiago Santos who has no knees. Wouldn't be surprised if Hill wins but I think Teixeira weathers the storm and gets the sub. Hopefully he doesn't retire right away if he wins

Figueiredo vs. Moreno IV
Deiveson Figueiredo, DEC
I think this fight should be the main event. I could watch these guys fight every weekend & I think there would be a different outcome every time. I'm going with figgy just due to the fact that I think it'll be a close fight and it's in Brazil. I think whomever wins this fight loses to pantoja next tho

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
If Craig can't get a sub he can't win. I also don't see him being able to ko walker

Andrade vs. Murphy
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R1
Andrade will walk Murphy down and make her her *****

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R2
Burns by however he wants. He has the power advantage and magny struggles against high level grapplers

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R2
Bonfim is pretty well rounded for how young he is and lazzez is old and barely fights

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R3
Maybe the size of fairn will give nunes problems but she's trash

Rua vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, TKO, R1
Thank God this isn't on the ppv. Ihor isn't good but I think he'll have enough power early to get rid of diaper shorts rua

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Ismael Bonfim, DEC
I think bonfim is well rounded enough to expose the holes in Mckinneys game. Really looking forward to this fight

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
Why does the ufc keep rescheduling this fight? Almeida should be at LHW but shamil is way passed his prime

Alves vs. Dalby
Warlley Alves, TKO, R1
Alves starts fast & Dalby starts slow. Dalbys chances of winning get better the longer the fight goes but I think Alves can finish him in rd 1

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Luan Lacerda, SUB, R2
I feel like I'm gonna regret this pick & stamann is just gonna out wrestle lacerda every round but I think lacerda catches stamann in a scramble and gets the sub

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Daniel Marcos, DEC
Oliveria doesn't impress me I think he gets lit up on the feet by Marcos

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, SUB, R2
Too bad guram pulled out. I don't like Costas chances coming in on short notice

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R1
This will be fun as long as it lasts but I'm not betting against robocop who is bigger and Bruno is coming in on short notice

All the same picks besides the main event 

@mothswords hahah nice, may the best man win 

Man, fights like Usman-Edwards, Izzy-Periera, and Figgy-Moreno are so hard for me. I can't not side with the guy who wins the vast majority of rounds. If one guy CLEARLY has the skills upside and can win going away, but the other guy has some key to exploit, it's an Occam's Razor thing. Side with the guy who wins 90% of the fighting. Right? Right?...

Moreno has looked like the far better fighter during long stretches of each fight. Then Figgy can explode and steal moments/rounds with aggression and strength. Although, Moreno having a higher ceiling but giving away rounds is something a high IQ coach can fix. Unfortunately Moreno's new high IQ coach is in Mexico with a beard and a fake ID.

I understand picks 90%+ on Tapology for the following fighters: Burns, Andrade, Rodrigues, Moisés, Almeida.
These are really big names and serious fighters who have proven their professional suitability many times.
But 96% for Josiane Nunes its a joke.
I just mean that there is too little information on this matchup to rate it so highly.

96% on nunes is a fade on th 40 year old who gets finished every fight. everyone knows nunes is awful lol

Is Daniel Marcos' wrestling and grappling any good? I can't watch tape on any of these DWCS guys because the ESPN+ site is god awful and wont let me watch contender series