UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

If in doubt put the McKinney fight doesn’t go the distance because I guarantee it doesn’t get past the second

Yeah he ate it pretty well but there’s still the visual of him getting clipped. He still doesn’t have good defense and that’s bad against someone with the technical striking of bonfim. Bonfim fought a similar style matchup on dwcs and passed with flying colors; I think he does the same here. Not an easy fight for him tho

Isn't the better Bonafine fighting Lazzez?

I very rarely say this, but this card is really hard to call. And it's a landmine to bet 

@rah I think Gabriel is better than Ismail so he’s. It’s hard to say tho because both are great 

Gabriel rushes things. Ismail dosent

This might be the first card ever where I cap 15 fights and find zero bets.

Gabriel is also more gifted a fighter. Both on the feet his hand speed and combinations are way more impressive and his wrestling into submissions far more developed than Ismaels...Plus Gabriel is only 25. He rushes things because he gets away with it, thats part of having great talent and young. Lazzezz is a very slick striker but he's 35 and has fought twice in two years, Lazzez doesnt have the kind of power to punish Gabriel if he gets over aggressive either. This shouldn't be a hard pick for anyone, you either favor Gabriel or you aren't convinced and you move on. Ismael is for sure more composed, defensive and the guys defensive wrestling looks real good. 

In my opinion there's two kinds of bettors, there's bettors who know fighting really well and decide to cash in on their knowledge when they see the bookies got it wrong and then there's people who know betting really well, the lines, props, different sports books, all the different betting options, do it often and track their data to back it. I had hoped Ismael would be more of an underdog here, and I was hoping Guram vs Moises that Guram wouldn't have been too much a favorite. If I coulda got Guram at -170 or better and Bonfim at around +120 or better j was going to Parlay it for a few grand. I still put some money on Ismael but McKinney is talented and pretty big and I know how much people love overrating reach when talking about bets lol. 

For whatever it is worth, Terrence McKinney doesn't have a single win vs as good of competition as Nariman Abbasov. 

* Edited at 01.17.2023, 2:07 PM ET *

Skill for skill Gabriel is better imo

For picking winners yeah definitely but there will be a hell of a lot of finishes on this card no doubt about it 

By the way, I don't bet often but I made money on Mounir Lazzez vs Abdul Razak Alhassan a couple years ago too. I remember getting Lazzez at +300, Abdul was always...well skill wise, not a good fighter for the level he was fighting at and Lazzez had a solid striking background (not as solid as Bonfim though) and Mounir was a striking coach, slick, long, quick and decent enough wrestling so I knew he had the savvy to avoid the round 1(and maybe an early round 2 blitz) knockout more than likely and take the fight. I love betting against 1 round gas tank guys with bad technique. To me, this was as clear as day a fight the bookies got wrong, Abdul wasn't beating guys in the UFC who were particularly talented to sway me via a different level of work either. Sometimes the bookies just get it wrong, then I like to toss a little money in.

Bonfim vs McKinney is such a good fight, that can go either way. Either McKinney early or bonfim late. I would avoiding betting on this one 

This card is so sick. I couldn’t be more excited for it

I'm having a hard time finding good spots for betting on this event. 

I'm really confident in Almeida and Andrade. Walker always worries me, cause sometimes he's really dumb and Craig has a really good ground game, but Johny should pass this test. 

Burns worries me too, cause he seems to have a lot of problems dealing with straight punches, but If he does what he did against Wonderboy in rd 1, it's a wrap. 

Maybe a parlay with Almeida x Shamil under 1.5 + Andrade + Moises could cash. What do you guys think of it ?

I hope no fights get cancelled and that no-one pulls out. We haven't had card with 15 fights on it since UFC 259.

I think that's a lock

Teixeira vs. Hill
Jamahal Hill, TKO, R3
if Teixeira doesnt submit hill in rd 1 or 2.....hill is going to TKO him...

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
Almeida is the real deal....

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
Someone is going to sleep here...

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R1
nunes is the real deal as well...