UFC on ABC 3: Ortega vs. Rodriguez

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

* Edited at 07.14.2022, 8:06 AM ET *

@JapanBless

Burgos for the win!

Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Brian Ortega, SUB, R3
I think fight will go down in History. Wild fight, I'm going to say while in the clinch and knees and uppercuts being landed Ortega jumps for a flying guillotine when Yair bends. Very reminiscent of Volk fight but this time Yair goes out cold.

Waterson vs. Lemos
Michelle Waterson, DEC
SPLIT Dec 30-27,29-28,28-29 Waterson is very good from distance and great at picking her shots. I think she has a wierd start to the fight but turns it up and keeps it up, really frustrating Lemos in the 3rd round.

Li vs. Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov, DEC
30-27x2, 29-28 Uni Muslim sticks and moves.

Schnell vs. Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji, TKO, R3
Leaning decision but I'll go out on a limb and say the Tibetan Eagle by Ground and Pound in the 3rd.

Burgos vs. Jourdain
Charles Jourdain, DEC
29-28x2, 30-27 I think Jourdain lights Burgos up here. Burgos is an animal I just think he takes way too much damage in his fights. Jourdain Has more ways to win imo as well.

Murphy vs. Tate
Lauren Murphy, DEC
Just as gritty if not tougher and more active & the skill of competition for Lucky has been heavy lately. give me Lauren with a clear cut 29-28 UNI

Soriano vs. Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R2
This fight ends in the first 7 mins, I think Soriano lands an elbow and finishes it off on the cage as Ref steps in. This has a side prop hedge written all over it with Dalcha KO early.

Simón vs. Shore
Jack Shore, DEC
SPLIT Crazy fight , Simon is a beast. 29-28x2, 28-29 Shore Loses round 3, not enough for two judges.

Algeo vs. Burns
Bill Algeo, DEC
30-27, 29-28.28-29 Split Dec. Odd fight, Alot of stalemate grappling in this one.

Jacoby vs. Jung
Da Un Jung, DEC
29-28x2, 28-29 Split Dec. Crazy fight.

Grant vs. Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus, TKO, R3
Think Dustin, turns it on towards the end. Straight Counter to GnP.

Penne vs. Ducote
Emily Ducote, DEC
29-28x2, 30-27 Uni

It's funny to see how every week people criticize girl fights. **** how can anyone see a lock on Lemos. Penne. Murphy and Waterson are in the game. 

Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Brian Ortega, SUB, R3
Ortega is one of the best grapplers at 45 and has been improving his striking every fight. If Volk had a neck he would likely have had the belt until at least Holloway showed up. Yair is a flashy striker who can stand on the feet vs anyone in the division. As long as this fight stays standing I think Yair is going to look like the better fighter, but I have a hard time imagining this fight doesn't hit the ground at least once in 5 rounds. Sometimes Ortega is okay with striking even when shown a level difference, but does like to catch kicks which can put this fight on the floor. Even if Ortega doesn't want to go for typical takedowns I can see him catching a kick and I don't see Yair being able to defend against Ortega on the ground.

Waterson vs. Lemos
Amanda Lemos, DEC
Lemos striking looked really good in her last fight. Barely being touched and landing some solid shots on Andrade before getting standing arm triangled. She looked prepared for five rounds of striking keeping her volume decent but not putting everything into her strikes. Waterson has good striking as well and the ability to get takedowns but as long as Lemos can keep it on the feet I think she will be on a different level.

Li vs. Salikhov
Muslim Salikhov, TKO, R3
This is one of the hardest fights to call on the card because Jingliang is always live for a knockout. Salikhov is a good striker who has great spinning attacks along with decent enough volume. Jingliang has a lot of power in his hands, but doesn't always have a lot of volume. He doesn't always need a lot of volume though especially in the first round when it seems every punch he throws gets a reaction. Salikhov has been rocked in his fights but hasn't been knocked out yet and I don't think this will be the fight. If Salikhov can keep his range and push Jingliang against the cage to drain some of his first round cardio I can see Salikhov finishing him later in the fight.

Schnell vs. Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji, DEC
I was surprised to see Sumudaerji as a wide favorite as this is step up for him. Sumudaerji has very good movement with solid kicks and quick straight punches. Schell tries to lead exchanges and get into the pocket to throw combos. Schnell also has a solid submission game if he can get in on the ground. In the Royval fight he was winning the exchanges and even dropped Royval before getting submitted. Although Schnell does have a questionable chin sometimes I think that is mostly the result of him wanting to trade hooks in every exchange. Sumudaerji will likely look to use his movement and land shots then get out of the pocket to end up winning a close decision.

Burgos vs. Jourdain
Shane Burgos, DEC
This should easily be FOTN imo. Burgos has a pressure heavy style, high volume and good three round cardio. He is mostly a boxer but has solid leg kicks as seen in the Billy Q fight. He does get hit a lot but shown to have a solid chin even when facing some of the best strikers in the division. He was able to take shots from Emmett that put most people at 45 to sleep. Jourdain is also a very good striker but uses body and head kicks as well. He likes to put on pressure and has decent volume. He has faced the much lower level of strikers compared to Burgos though and was even out struck in the first round by Erosa. Burgos has fought some of the best strikers in the division and this is certainly a step down in competition. I don't see Jourdain being able to knockout Burgos and will struggle against the high volume and being put on the back foot. The rounds will be close but I think Burgos slightly out strikes him each round.

Murphy vs. Tate
Miesha Tate, DEC
Miesha is better almost everywhere this fight goes. Her striking has improved and looked solid in the last two fights. She also has solid clinch work with takedowns. Murphy still has pretty stiff striking with little head movement. Most of her takedowns attempts look bad and just tries to use her strength to get it to the ground. Whether Miesha wants to strike for three rounds or push Murphy up against the cage I think she takes this one by decision.

Soriano vs. Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R2
Both of these guys have knockout power with questionable cardio when it becomes a high volume fight. Puna is the more technical fighter out of the two and has more diverse striking. Dalcha hasn't heard of leg kicks and rarely goes to the body with him mostly head hunting looking for that knockout. Puna showed to be very durable in that Brendan Allen fight and I think he will be able to take the shots until he finds a knockout of his own.

Simón vs. Shore
Ricky Simón, DEC
Usually when two fighters are both good on the ground it can turn into a striking match. I don't see this fight going like that though as I can't see Simon abandoning his chain wrestling style. Simon has great takedowns and insane cardio for that amount of wrestling. His striking is solid and showed to have good power his last fight. Besides the Faber fight he has shown to have a solid chin as well. Shore has good wrestling as well but is okay with having a striking match. Shore has been reversed on the ground and controlled however and I think that is going to be the difference in this fight. The Valiev win was solid, but seemed to be okay with standing with Shore with no urgency for takedowns. Simon is going to push the pace and really test how good Shore's wrestling is. Shore will likely win some exchanges on the feet but when he is in the clinch against the fence I see him eventually giving up the takedown. He will be able to get back up but Simon has the cardio to keep repeating that for a full 15 minutes. There are times especially in the second round when Simon takes a break from wrestling and looks to strike. I see Shore winning the time on the feet but being shown there are levels to wrestling for a close 29-28 decision.

Algeo vs. Burns
Bill Algeo, DEC
I think this fight is closer than the betting line suggests. Algeo has that loose karate style striking with decent volume that he can put on you for three rounds. Algeo is also solid on the ground though, having very good submission defense being in some pretty deep chokes in his last couple fights and being able to get out. His TDD is not great but has looked slightly improved over the past couple fights. Burns throws a lot of solid kicks on the feet but mainly needs it to hit the ground. He usually shoots for takedowns early and tries to drag his opponent down with him however he can. Not a lot of ground and pound, mostly goes for position and submissions. I think Algeo will get taken down in the first round and controlled for most of the time while Burns looks for submissions. In the later rounds Algeo will have a better chance of defending takedowns and be able to out strike Burns. However, if Burns cardio holds up and is able to takedown Algeo like Brito did the first two attempts it could be a lot more difficult.

Jacoby vs. Jung
Dustin Jacoby, DEC
Jacoby has some of the best pure kickboxing at 205. He is able to stay technical and high volume for all three rounds. He also has shown solid TDD and urgency to get back to the feet when taken down. Da Un Jung is also a solid striker, but does not have the same level of movement or volume as Jacoby. He looks very flat footed in fights and will stand directly in front them without throwing any strikes. Imo he lost that fight Alvey and was losing the striking exchanges in the first two rounds. I don't think he will be able to take down Jacoby like he did Knight. Knight tried to use his strength to get out a positions and didn't look good trying to defend the takedowns as he got taken down by the same trip five times. As long as Jacoby is healthy and able to throw kicks again he will be able to keep this on the feet and use his higher volume to a decision.

Grant vs. Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus, DEC
Not sure why Grant is the favorite in this matchup. Grant has pretty low volume, mostly shadowboxing out of range for most of time until he throws powerful hooks. Stoltzfus has been improving on the feet every fight and has solid takedowns/scrambles. He was winning the GM3 fight until he went for a leg while in a scramble and got his back taken. There is always a chance for Grant to get a knockout but with going up a weight class and coming off a knockout loss, he may not have the same power and be more hesitant to throw heavy shots in the pocket. I see Dustin being able to shoot smart takedowns and out strike Grant.

Penne vs. Ducote
Emily Ducote, TKO, R3
Penne has pretty bad takedowns, and average trips when she can get her opponent up against the fence. A lot of the times she will just try to throw up a body triangle against the fence and hope for the best. Her striking is not very good and will likely have to get this fight to the ground to win. Emily has the much better striking in this matchup and showed solid TDD vs better wrestlers than Penne. She also likes to stay in the center of the octagon away from the fence which will help her out strike Penne until the knockout.

This fight has much more question marks than most of you thought.
And it is not as easy as.
"Ortega has ground game so he wins" or
"Rodriguez has striking so he wins".
First of all (and something very crucial that no one said) Brian has only 2 fights since October 2020 and one of these 2 is with propably with the GOAT of the devision so it is not that he lost but HOW he lost.
And Rodriguez has only one since 2019.
So it is very very difficult to judge for the nearest past.
And you can't judje from the fights of 2017 or 2018 who will win on 2022.
Ortega in his last fight fought (propably) the GOAT and he was very nearly to end this with a sub in round 3 but for some reason (only Ortega knows) he stop the sub. In his boxing game on this fight, not a surprise really, he couldn't beat Volkanovski and he lost.
Rodriguez in the past has produce a lot of KD and KO's. He also fight a beast in a dogfight but didn't manage to win him.
So before you said that is easy to predict think twice.
Will Rodriguez find the shot?
Will Rodriguez find an easy shot? as we all know that Ortega's Sticking defence is not that good..
Will Ortega survive this shot if he gets it? as we all know that this guy has a chin..
Will Ortega overturn it as he is a beast in bjj?
Will Ortega wins easy with his ground game?
If this fight goes to distance..will ortega win tith ground control time or Rodriguez with his boxing?

* Edited at 07.14.2022, 3:09 PM ET *

Honesly, The only intersting thing in WMMA is the top of straw weight  and the prospect at flyweight I don't care about women Batamweight, Women featherweight doesn't exist, And the old fighter at flyweight are also boring

I also don't think it sexist to prefer to watch Men sports, WMMA is just a less skill, Less athletic version of Mens MMA, Literally every other major sport beside Tennis, No one watch the female version of it, Women MMA is lucky that fan somewhat cares about the women fighter, Women MMA is still good, But it being inferior to Men MMA is why people critizes  it

* Edited at 07.14.2022, 5:24 PM ET *

Thanks!

How many fights on a card do you guys like. Off top of my head, the most I’ve seen for ufc is 15 fights, seems nowadays we’re getting 11-12 fight cards on fight day (after inevitable cancellations) I would love if every card was a solid 15 fights of entertainment, maybe one day we could witness that utopia  

13 or 14 on a ppv.

If its an early card like we have the next couple of weeks...I'm cool with as many fights as they wanna show. 

When its a normal evening card and I'm falling asleep watching Aimenn  Zahabi vs Ricky Turcious and I've got 6 more fights before the main event....I'm ok with 10-12 fights.

I know the UFC cant put on a banger of 12 marquee matchups every week and theres gotta be some filler.

* Edited at 07.14.2022, 5:54 PM ET *

The cards always look banging a month before they happen; but as it gets closer fighters pull out and for some reason it’s always the most hyped ones, I’m in Uk and watching Ricky turcious do his performance at 4 am made me stop watching and continue the remaining fights the next morning

And I was hyped to watch Ricky and the disappointment made me pass out 

Schnell vs. Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji, TKO, R2
I think Schnell already has a foot out the door. Doesn’t sound like he wants to be fighting anymore.

Burgos vs. Jourdain
Shane Burgos, DEC
I like Jourdain but I think the output of Burgos will give him problems.

This card starts around the time that I’m usually sleeping in. Same thing with next week, I can understand the fights starting early next week because it’s in London but not really this week

I guess they think more people will watch it in the day time on ABC