UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

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Some of my predictions for UFC 280:

Oliveira vs. Makhachev


Oliveira via R3 KO/TKO


Despite the predictions made by others, I think this fight is as 50/50 as it gets. Islam has ridiculously good wrestling while Charles has the advantage in striking. I believe that is Olives keeps the fight mostly on the feet, he should get the win within the first three rounds. This is gonna be a blast. 


Sterling vs. Dillashaw


Sterling via Decision


As the champ, Sterling is the BW division's biggest grappling threat. He took advantage of Yan's slow start to their second fight and, despite the fight ending up being decided via SD, had the full advantage in the first 3 rounds of the fight. TJ has fought once since January of 2019, and the one fight he has was an extremely close fight against Sandhagen. Sterling's fastest finish W of his career was against Sandhagen. I don't think Aljo finishes TJ but I do think he coasts to a decision win in a somewhat competitive fight. Do not complete count out TJ, though.


Yan vs. O'Malley


Yan via Decision


O'Malley is taking too big of a step. Yan only gets better as the fight goes on, and has never been finished in his career. While O'Malley is a sniper, Yan is an incredible boxer with insane striking defence. He's also not afraid to get close to his opponents and do some dirty boxing. On top of that, O'Malley's height and reach advantage mean nothing. Sandhagen has a similar frame as O'Malley and, despite losing the first round, Petr out-performed Sandhagen for the rest of the fight.

I think Sean avoids a humiliating KO finish but I don't see him winning this fight. 



Dariush vs. Gamrot


Dariush via Decision


I think it's best to only bet on this fight to go the distance. Both fighters have similar skill sets and do not gas out easily. 

I very cautiously picked Dariush purely because of his experience in the organization and because of his underrated striking. While his striking certainly isn't the most glamorous, his previous knockouts against Close and Holtzman were spectacular. 

With that being said, Gamrot is a serious threat to the LW division and will make this fight extremely competitive with his advanced skill set. Not only is he great on the feet, he has great ground game too. I just think Dariush's ground game is slightly better and that he has underrated power in his hands.

Bet on this fight to go the distance, it's easy money. 


Krylov vs. Oezdemir


Krylov via R3 Submission


Oezdemir had a great performance against Craig in their last fight, and Krylov's last loss was against Craig. I like Oezdemir as an underdog, but I think Krylov's ground game is just different.

Unlike Paul Craig, Krylov has striking abilities in combination with his grappling expertise. I believe that Krylov will make it very hard for Oezdemir striking-wise and that once he gets the fight on the ground, he will have the clear advantage against Volcano.

I like the "Over 1.5 Rds." prop on DK, I think that's cash. Either Krylov wins by decision or by a submission in the second half of the fight. 


Tukhugov vs. Almeida


Tukhugov via Decision


As a prospect, I like Almeida, but I think this is an awful matchup for him on paper. 12/20 of Tukhugov's wins have been via decision while all of Almeida's wins have been finishes (the one fight of his that went the distance was a loss). Tukhugov will likely make the fight long and gruelling in order to secure a decision win at the end of it. 

If there's a finish, I'm pretty sure that Almeida will be the one getting his hand raised. However, if it goes the distance, it will be Tukhugov who comes out on top. 


Mokaev vs. Gordon

Mokaev via R1 KO/TKO


People in this forum saying Mokaev is a "lock." Yeah, no ****. He's a -1000 favourite against a guy who has been finished in all 5 of his losses. In fact, 4 out of 5 of Gordon's losses were via knockout and all of them were in the first round. 

I think the "Mokaev R1/R2" alternate rounds prop (-110 on Fanduel the last time I checked) is a lock and a half. I just don't know whether he'll submit or knock Gordon out but I think Mokaev will win on the feet

I don't know how you can watch Gamrot's fight vs Tsarukyan and think Dariush can keep up with that, but good luck man

We'll see! Dariush is a year and a half older than Gamrot, so it's not like he's a fossil and very slow. Gamrot could barely keep up with Tasrukyan for the first half of the fight so don't count Beneil out. 

However, I can absolutely see Gamrot winning. He's the favourite for a reason, I just think that Dariush at around +160 and that him winning via points at around +300 might be too good of an offer to pass up on. 

Whatever result I think the fight will be very entertaining. Dariush has a chance to solidify himself as a top contender with a win while Gamrot has a chance to show how much of a problem he truly is. This fight is 50/50 in my opinion but both men are extremely talented.

Can't put into words how awesome this card is. 

I shouldn't say "barely." Gamrot did keep up with Arman in the first 3 rounds and for the rest of the fight though I do think Arman took the first two rounds for sure. Rounds 3-5 were extremely close so I don't have a problem with Gamrot being given the win, although I do think Arman ever so slightly won. 

For anyone that's saying Islam is a better striker than Oliveira, that is completely false. Oliveira has really good Muay Thai while Islam is just really technical, has his basics down, and anything he lands is because of his takedown threat. If they both decide to strike for a round, Oliveira will definitely land more cleanly and dude hits hard. Anything Islam lands cleanly will be because of his grappling while Oliveira just has really good Muay Thai. The reason why Oliveira gets hit a lot is because Muay Thai is literally the worst type of martial arts when it comes to defense because it tends to be a very flat-footed style

Holy damn the toxicity struck again earlier 😂 This site should be for making mma picks and sharing opinions. It’s okay to have a different opinion but once it starts getting personal it’s like are we even talking about ******* mma anymore or did this **** turn to twitter already.

Makhachev takes way less strikes per minute and he has better striking accuracy, not necessarily better striking cause Oliviera has stellar Muay Thai. I know Charles is a tough out and a champion, but I believe Charles will be submitted by the 3rd round. Makhachev also has better take down defense than Chucky Olives and he's younger in age.It could go either way really and I wouldn't be surprised if Oliveira wins this fight. I'm just so looking forward to witnessing this epic lightweight battle.I believe better defense wins fights and Makhachev's defense will get him through the early rounds and tire Oliviera which will open the door to a submission finish. Many will be surprised, but not me. If Oliviera wins I wouldn't be surprised either.

	Charles Oliveira	Islam Makhachev
Tale of the tape
Wins/Losses/Draws	33-8-0 (1 NC)	22-1-0
Average Fight Time	6:55	9:11
Height	5' 10"	5' 10"
Weight	155 lbs.	155 lbs.
Reach	74"	70"
Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
DOB	Oct 17, 1989	Oct 27, 1991
Striking (Significant Strikes)
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	3.53	2.27
Striking Accuracy	53%	57%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.18	0.84
Defense	52%	68%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.46	3.41
Takedown Accuracy	40%	65%
Takedown Defense	57%	88%
Submission Average/15 min.	2.9	1.2
Most recent fights (Newest First)

* Edited at 10.19.2022, 2:49 PM ET *

I’m not exactly sure why people think Beneil is so old. He’s only 33, of course he looks older than he is but that don’t mean he’s a grandpa lol

	Aljamain Sterling	TJ Dillashaw
Tale of the tape
Wins/Losses/Draws	21-3-0	18-4-0
Average Fight Time	13:12	12:28
Height	5' 7"	5' 6"
Weight	135 lbs.	135 lbs.
Reach	71"	67"
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
DOB	Jul 31, 1989	Feb 07, 1986
Striking (Significant Strikes)
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	4.56	5.26
Striking Accuracy	50%	41%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.24	3.27
Defense	60%	63%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	1.71	1.63
Takedown Accuracy	21%	30%
Takedown Defense	41%	86%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.8	0.8
Most recent fights (Newest First)
	Win - Yan	Win - Sandhagen
	Win - Yan	Loss - Cejudo
	Win - Sandhagen	Win - Garbrandt
	Win - Munhoz	Win - Garbrandt
	Win - Rivera	Win - Lineker

	Petr Yan	Sean O'Malley
Tale of the tape
Wins/Losses/Draws	16-3-0	15-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	16:12	8:25
Height	5' 7"	5' 11"
Weight	135 lbs.	135 lbs.
Reach	67"	72"
Stance	Switch	Switch
DOB	Feb 11, 1993	Oct 24, 1994
Striking (Significant Strikes)
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	5.45	7.75
Striking Accuracy	53%	62%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	3.88	3.48
Defense	61%	64%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	1.48	0.54
Takedown Accuracy	61%	50%
Takedown Defense	90%	64%
Submission Average/15 min.	0.2	0.5
Most recent fights (Newest First)
	Loss - Sterling	No Contest - Munhoz
	Win - Sandhagen	Win - Paiva
	Loss - Sterling	Win - Moutinho
	Win - Aldo	Win - Almeida
	Win - Faber	Loss - Vera

He looks way older but he is Beni acting much older being safe which he admitted too.
Sure it's smart but to safe is boring and will make you lose in close matches with aggressive dudes.

Beneil Dariush	Mateusz Gamrot
Tale of the tape
Wins/Losses/Draws	21-4-1	21-1-0 (1 NC)
Average Fight Time	9:14	11:11
Height	5' 10"	5' 10"
Weight	155 lbs.	155 lbs.
Reach	72"	70"
Stance	Southpaw	Southpaw
DOB	May 06, 1989	Dec 11, 1990
Striking (Significant Strikes)
Strikes Landed per Min. (SLpM)	3.80	3.54
Striking Accuracy	49%	51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. (SApM)	2.58	3.19
Defense	58%	63%
Grappling
Takedowns Average/15 min.	2.11	4.83
Takedown Accuracy	34%	35%
Takedown Defense	81%	90%
Submission Average/15 min.	1.0	0.3
Most recent fights (Newest First)
	Win - Ferguson	Win - Tsarukyan
	Win - Ferreira	Win - Ferreira
	Win - Holtzman	Win - Stephens
	Win - Klose	Win - Holtzman
	Win - Camacho	Loss - Kutateladze

You cannot rely solely on stats with respect to the Oliveira vs Makhachev fight. You must also look at who each fighter has fought recently. 

Islam's has not fought someone that is anywhere near Oliveira's level. Is it because some fighters have pulled out against fighting Islam? Obviously. That does not change the fact that he has not faced the same competition that Oliveira has. 

With that being said, Charles has not fought somebody Islam's skill set. His wrestling capability will be very difficult to deal with. 

@wastelandwanderer

every day you post embedded episode after I have already done it 😅

I don't think Benny is old, but I just don't think he's a championship level fighter while Armen, Fiziev, Gamrot, and Ismagulov are championship level fighters. Fiziev might end up in that Sandhagen and Ortega category of good enough to get a title shot, but can't actually beat people like Charles, Islam, Armen, and Ismagulov. I honestly think Jalin Turner will get put against him if he loses against Gamrot (which he probably will), and he'll probably lose to turner b/c I think Turner ceiling is top 5 (yes, for anyone that had paid attention to my last post about Turner, I did change my mind especially since Dern lost to an Alpha Male fighter). 

I respectfully disagree about Ismagulov. He’s for sure a top 15 top 10 talent in the division but he’s not championship caliber imo. If he beats Arman that may change but for now I don’t think so