UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Spivak vs. Hardy
Sergey Spivak, DEC
I hope this is the last we ever see of Greg Hardy in combat sports.

@crimsonchin Spivak a world class judoka, he has a lot more options than an ankle pick. Hardy might get taken down in a way he hasn't even practiced defending before. Or Hardy might land a big right hand and make that totally irrelevant haha

I don’t think I’ll bet on the main event tomorrow unless it’s a sprinkle, I think I’m just gonna enjoy that one as a fan. I’m like a lot of people out there rooting for Masvidal, but know Colby has a better chance to win if he doesn’t get KO’d. Rivalries always make things more fun!

Spivak vs. Hardy
Sergey Spivak, SUB, R2
Arm Triangle Sub.

Turner vs. Mullarkey
Jamie Mullarkey, DEC
VERY unsure. Split Dec 29-28x2,28-29

Rodriguez vs. Yan
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
30-27 Uni

Negumereanu vs. Nzechukwu
Nick Negumereanu, SUB, R1
Mounted, Kennedy turns over, Nick gets a RNC.

Moroz vs. Agapova
Maryna Moroz, DEC
Dec split 30-27,29-28,28-29

Nurmagomedov vs. Kelleher
Umar Nurmagomedov, SUB, R2
D'arce Choke

Elliott vs. Ulanbekov
Tim Elliott, DEC
29-28 Uni

Klein vs. Smith
Ľudovít Klein, TKO, R2
Punches to ground and pound tko

Jacoby vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, DEC
Dec Split 29-28x2,28-29

One thing I notice looking at  fight footage, Devonte Smith is a bit fragile, The Kharma Worthy KO wasn't the hardest punch in the world, And he went down pretty hard. Also Jamie Mularky hurt Devonte Smith then it all went down hill from their, It wasn't because he gassed like some people said the narrative is

I think that why I like Klein in the fight, If it going to be a who land hard **** and who will go down first, Devonte will most likely go down first,

Klein by KO is a good bet at +450

* Edited at 03.04.2022, 4:12 PM ET *

yea he does have a durability issue.

Covington vs. Masvidal
Colby Covington, TKO, R3
Huge right hand drops Jorge after faking a takedown, Ground and pound finish.

dos Anjos vs. Moicano
Renato Moicano, DEC
29-28x2, 30-27

Barboza vs. Mitchell
Bryce Mitchell, DEC
30-27x2, 30-26 Domination

Holland vs. Oliveira
Kevin Holland, DEC
Split Dec Close fight 30-27,29-28,28-29

I think Klein ko is a good bet but most of his Kos are from his left high kick and his last two opponents have shown that if you pressure him, he cant land the high kick and therefore cant land his best shot. 

This chat is pretty ********. Ulanbekov blows chunks. Nobody should be highly confident in him in this fight. It's a 50/50 bout that Elliot could definitely win.

Don't bet on Alaska FC fighters. It'll save you money in the long run. Just a general statement.

* Edited at 03.04.2022, 4:32 PM ET *

Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey 

Mullarkey KO RD 2

This is by far my favorite fight on the card. Both guys are two promising prospects and both try to kill their opponents in the cage. Turner also has an incredibly deceptive record. Turner is one of those LWs that is 6’3, so he normally has a massive size advantage against his opponents, but here hes only gonna 3 inches in both reach and height (still big but not as much as it is against others). He hits super hard and has some really fast hands. Turner also throws very very high volume while also possessing a very nice submission game. Hes got very long arms which makes it hard to escape his chokes but he loves to pull guillotine or work a RNC on the ground and hes also got pretty good scrambles and tdd. We did see him get out wrestled against matt frevola by matt slipping the punches and then shooting, which i could see mullarkey doing. Mullarkey is also primarily a striker but hes got good wrestling and mixes it in very well with his striking. ON the feet, he doesnt throw as high volume, but he hits equally as hard and has a granite chin. I dont really like how he just eats punches for defense but at least the chin holds up for the most part. I did see him literally just walk into punches against volkanovski but you can see hes been working on defense more (not by much lol but at least hes trying). I also favor mullarkey because hes fought better competition. I also favor his cardio (just because turner has never won a decision which leads me to believe he doesnt have a great gas tank). He doesnt use it that much but mullarkey is also pretty solid black belt; in his debut, he showed incredible submission defense. Hes bascailly just as tough at defending subs as he is on the feet so that tells you something. 

Marina Rodriguez vs Yan Xiaonan 

Rodriguez DEC 

This might be my most confident pick on the card. Not because yan is bad, but this is a very favorable match for Marina. She is (imo) the best striker in the division and I really dont think she will lose in a fight where her opponent isnt a wrestler. Xiaonan is higher volume, but she hasnt fought the same level of competition. Marina picks her shots very well and can put a very high pace on her opponents. Shes also very well conditioned as she showed in her past two 5 rounders. 

Nick Negumeranu vs Kennedy Nzchekwu 

Nzchekwu KO RD 3 

I really dont know how to feel about this one. Kennedy has a lot of potential but really doesn't trust himself. Hes absolutely gigantic for the division and when he lets his hands go has tons power, but is held back by his ability to believe in himself. Hes one of the slowest starters in the ufc which I really dont like; for example, he gets backpacked by Marquez and does nothing or almost gets koed by ulberg but then lights them up in the later rounds. Im not so sure hes gonna be able to do that here because negumeranu has a titanium chin but at the same time I dont think nick will be able to connect as easy as he did against camur or ike because of the size disadvantage. Negumeranu is a can crusher and normally I wouldn't be worried about someone so bad upsetting, but Kennedy being such a slow starter really worries me. negumeranu really isn't good and his whole style consists of him eating your shots and then throwing bombs to your face. his striking defense is pathetic at 29% and Kennedy hits hard, but I dont know if he will get a finish because he never lets his hands go fully; except for the ulberg fight, he almost never throws combos and just throws 2-3 punches every time he attacks. One thing I am confident about is Nicolae won't be able to use his wrestling because Kennedy has very good tdd and being so tall is pretty hard to grapple. Maybe he could get him down in the first but he won't be able to do it the entire fight. Kennedy with low confidence, maybe he gets a late finish but low confidence on that too. 

Maryna Moroz vs Mariya Agapova 

Agapova SUB RD 2 

This is another one im pretty confident about; Agapova had that one very bad loss against Shana Dobson but she looked great in her comeback fight. She's also going to be extra motivated here because other hatred for Morozov. My one worry is she gets overexcited and gasses like she did against Dobson (I think its unlikely but just something to keep in mind). Moroz has never been finished so It wouldn't shock me if it goes to decision but Agapova fights every fight with the intent to finish you. Moroz is a tough step up but she has had her own troubles; she's coming off of a massive layoff and isn't going to be her usual healthy self because she has pulled out of 4 fights due to injuries since 2020. At her best, she's a good boxer who targets the body a lot and throws pretty high volume. She has half her wins by submission but doesn't really use it that much in the ufc. One thing I saw is, even though she's never been finished, she really doesn't like getting hit hard. In her fight against bueno silva, she was winning and got hit cleanly and then played defense for the rest of the round, giving the round to her opponent. Agapova on the other hand, is very aggressive with her striking, hits hard, and throws more volume. Unlike Morozov, she also uses her bjj and I honestly think she has the advantage on the ground. Interestingly enough, Agapova doesn't use wrestling, instead, she hurts her opponent on the feet and then subs them when they're hurt. She's insanely quick on the ground too; when she dropped mazo she instantly took her neck.  

Nurmagomedov vs Kelleher 

Nurmagomedov SUB RD 1 

Brian Kelleher is a very solid gatekeeper but this is one of those fights that hes just not winning. He did request the fight at 145, likely so he can be heavier and cut less weight but I dont really think it will do that much. I honestly feel like hes outclassed everywhere. On the feet, Umar is a surprisingly good striker; he has a lightning fast question mark kick and utilizes all sort of kicks. Brian is a pretty solid striker in his own right, but he struggles against guys with longer reaches than him (see his last fight for example) and Umar will be 5 inches longer (and technically fight "longer" because he mostly strikes with his legs). On the ground, obviously, Umar has the advantage. his wrestling is great; not really much to say because I think we all now what to expect from a Dagestani wrester at this point. Picking him by sub because, even though kellher has better bjj, half his losses have been by him falling into subs.  

Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov 

Ulanbekov DEC  

This is the rare fight where im picking one guy to win but want the other to pull through. It wouldn't surprise me if Tim somehow pulls off an upset (because I really dont think Tagir is as good as the hype says) but hes got low fight iq and a bad gas tank so I cant trust him here. Ulanbekov is massive for the division but im not the biggest fan of his striking; he is low volume and when I saw him strike with bruno silva he was quite hittable. Bruno silva also showed that he can be taken down pretty easily despite having great wrestling himself. These are both things Tim can do to Tagir but again, I just cant trust that he does it for three rounds without throwing. Hes very awkward on the feet, keeping his hands at his sides and throwing odd punches. He is a very good wrestler and is constantly notching lots of takedowns but his gas tank doesn't always let him do it continuously. Despite his terrible record, he actually looks pretty decent against good competition but just always throws. against figgy, he was heavily outvoluming him until he shot for a takedown and got subbed and against royval he was winning but got subbed again (a theme with Tim Elliot). Overall, Im picking Tagir because I think he should be able to lay on top of Tim the entire time, but he does nothing with top control and im worried Tim Elliots weird style wil confuse him and make him lose. 

Ludovit Klein vs Devonte Smith 

Smith KO R1 

This one is super tough for me to call. Devonte smith is a pretty solid prospect but has a poor chin while Klein had a massive hype train but has looked terrible in his last two fights. For Devonte, im pretty impressed with him; hes got great cardio, crazy power, and is pretty quick as well, hes just held back by his chin. He had the massive upset loss to Khama worthy and then lost to Jamie Mullarkey. I thought he was winning the fight but his chin failed him when Mullarkey landed a clean jab. Klein is a weird fighter because he looks very good on paper, but his striking and grappling is not as effective as it looks. I will say, he does have pretty good power but its all reliant on his left high kick; every combo he does is to set up the kick and we saw if you pressure him hes not going to be able to land his most effective shots. His wrestling is pretty solid but im not sure how effective it will be considering hes a FW fighting a LW. Im not worried about a sub threat from Klein because, even though he has 8 subs its against low level comp and his bjj really doesn't look all that impressive. Not fully confident in smith but only because his chin is an issue.

Dustin Jacoby vs Michal Oleksiejcuk 

Jacoby DEC 

This is a very good fight to start the card off with. Both are strikers, each with their own style. Michal is very quick and uses some very unorthodox movements to confuse his opponents, then blitzing in. His hands are pretty quick and I also like his striking defense. Jacoby is the slower fighter but is more technical; funny enough hes actually higher volume. He has a lot of high level kickboxing experience and it has translated very well to mma. Hes got a pretty good chin and also the better cardio. I favor Jacoby here because I dont like that Michal should have lost to bukauskaus.  

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal 

Covington DEC 

This fight will likely be closer than the odds would imply, but i still think colby should deal with jorge pretty easily. First off, Jorge looked terrible on the scales and was the second to last person to weigh in so that already makes me more confident in covington. On the feet, its pretty even. Colby isnt the most technical striker, but uses movement and volume to outstrike his opponents. hes kind of hittable too but can take a shot. Jorge has some veyr crisp boxing and has some ko power to match. I really like jorge from a technical standpoint. Jorge also have very underrated wrestling. I know colby is better but jorge is hard to takedown and has some decent scrambles. I think covington will still spam takedowns and hold him down but i wouldnt be surprised if jorge is somewhat resistant to them. Overall, I just think colby is the better fighter. 

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Renato Moicano 

Moicano SUB RD 4 

This is a tough one. RDA on short notice is a tough ask for anybody, but im also a big fan of moicano. He does have a tendency to choke big fights and we also dont know how his cardio will be either. Im one of the few people who probably thinks it will hold up. I think this because he has been staying ready for another big opportunity and weve never seen him gas before so i have no reason to believe he cant go 5. He also looked solid on the scales and was one of the first couple of people on. I really like this matchup because both guys have skills in most aspects of MMA. Both are very good strikers; RDA had a beautiful display of striking against paul felder and moicano, for a guy with 0 ko’s has pretty solid hands. Moicano uses leg kicks and movement pretty well while i would say RDA has an advantage in power. I know moicano has been koed 3 times, but his chin isnt as bad as everyone thinks; hes just been hit by 3 very powerful, very good strikers. I dont think RDA will ko him. The wrestling of the two is where it gets interesting. RDA has pretty solid offensive wrestling but does not fair well defensively. Now, moicano isnt know for being a wrestler, but hes been using it a lot more since moving up to 155; he had 6 total takedowns at 145 and in 4 LW fights, already has 8 takedowns. It will be interesting to see how he implements it against RDA. Im also not sure RDA will be able to take moicano down like he did against paul felder because moicano has a pretty outstanding tdd (80%). For bjj, id say its about even. RDA is a veteran black belt and came into mma being known for his bjj, which says a lot about it, but moicano’s bjj is pretty decent in its own right. Hes finished everyone with it at LW and speacilzes in RNC’s. Its very unlikely he subs RDA but im going to go with it because why not. FInally, even though hes fought at 145, moicano is going to be the bigger guy and i dont like the age and layoff on RDA’s side. He looks in phenomenal shape and has been ready for this fight but i still dont like that against the guy whos not only been hot recently, but has been super active. (this is his 5th fight in just under a year). 

Edson Barboza vs Bryce Mitchell 

Mitchell SUB RD 3 

Barboza is another pretty good dog, but, i think thug nasty takes this. Mitchell is not a flashy or overly impressive striker, but its not going to be as one sided on the feet as everyone thinks. Yes, barboza has a huge advantage there, but barboza striking stats are always almost even with his opponents plus mitchell has soem striking. Again, its nothing to call home about and hes not going to win exclusively on the feet, but its not like hes going to have 0 idea of what to do on the feet. Plus, edson doesnt do well against wrestlers with pressure. Mitchell has very high level bjj and is a super solid wrestler in his own right. I have seen people say his wrestling isnt good but im really not seeing it. Hes got good takedowns, good trips, and can chain attempts together on the ground with ease. Barboza has a pretty outstanding tdd, but, if he faces enough takedown attempts he will get taken down. When he does get taken down, i think bryce will easily sub him. Bryce is very aggressive on the ground and loves sophisticated sub attempts like the twister. Edson doesnt have the greatest awareness on the ground; i mean giga was able to catch him in some sub attempts lol. Like mitchell on the feet, hes not clueless on the ground but its obviously not his forté. I think this will go similar to the khabib fight where mitchell will face some resistance on the tds but will eventually get one and dominate after a takedown. 

Kevin Holland vs Alex Oliviera 

Kevin Holland KO RD 2 

Very confident in holland here. I know there are a lot of questions about him, but hes getting a pretty easy fight here. Oliviera was once good, but has taken a lot of damage in his career and its starting to catch up with him. Hes 2-6 in his last 8, granted, he is fighting tough guys like niko price and shavkat, but hes not exactly getting a step down here. Yes, holland is on a losing streak and was having problems at MW, but not only is he switching classes, but hes been working on his weaknesses. If you saw the recent grappling invitational, holland was stuffing tds against a former D1 wrestler and i personally thought he won but i also dont know how to score grappling so take that with a grain of salt; the takeaway is, his wrestling is improving. I think hes going to be very dangerous at this weight class; he bvarely cuts weight, had a super smooth cut this time, and is going to have a massive measureables advantage. His striking is super creative and he uses his length very well. Hes also a pretty good black belt but we dont see much of it because of his bad tdd. He has been working on that extensively and even though it was a no contest, he was stuffing takedowns from daukaus pretty well. Cowboy said hes going to grapple but hes never been a crazy effective wrestler. Hes only been koed once but as i said earlier, hes taken a lot of damage and i think holland will work him to a finish; he really has some sharp hands, plus oliviera is very hittable (47% striking defense). 

Serghei Spivak vs Greg Hardy 

Hardy KO RD 1

I know most people write off greg hardy because they dont like him but i think he has a better chance here than most would think; granted, he did look ****** on the scales today but still. Hes a huge guy and quite athletic, but has a bad gas tank and fight iq. I will say, I do respect him for fighting tough guys like spivak and volkov but he has shown that he doesnt beat the guys that are actually good. IF he worked on things and took mma seriously, i think he could actually have a decent career; hes got good tdd from being so strong, and has some serious power but, again, loses because of inexperience or his gas tank. I was impressed with him first round against tybura but ultimately he lost because he ran out of gas. And then, he almost koed tai, but blitzed in and got counter punched. Hurting tai shows you his power and beating tybura in the first round shows he can hang with skilled guys, but he still has a ton to work on. I think in the first round he could ko spivak because spivak really doesnt react well to being hit hard. I think what likely happens is greg gets taken down and either gasses or doesnt get back upo and gets finished but im going to take a shot here because spivak has a worse chin than his last two opponents. Spivak did say he has acknowledged what went wrong last fight and has switched camps but you cant change your chin, just your gameplan.

Negumereanu vs. Nzechukwu
Nick Negumereanu
Negumereanu win!!

@Mayo agree with the breakdown on the Kennedy fight. Not sure I'm picking him yet but yeah, he ****s me to tears. Just never gets out of first gear.

I respect the fact that you actually put a lot into your opinions her @Ayyy, even if I disagree with them at times. But I was kind of shocked to hear you say that you think Moicano will be the bigger man tomorrow night. Any reason why? 

@Tieoken RDA 'The little donkey', you mean?

@baldric hahah yeah trying to pick a winner in that fight is like being on a seesaw. I keep switching lol 

@teioken I meant bigger in terms of height and reach; not sure about the weight. If I were to guess RDA is probably the heavier guy although moicano said he was 180 when he took the fight

* Edited at 03.04.2022, 5:03 PM ET *

Elliott vs. Ulanbekov
Tim Elliott, DEC
**** it, underdog pick

Moroz vs. Agapova
Maryna Moroz, DEC
Source says opposite

Klein vs. Smith
Devonte Smith, TKO, R2
Toss up