The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I fixed my post a bit for nit picky people like you, who have no comprehension of seeing a bigger, more obvious picture I'm trying to get across in the post.

The difference between a 6+ leg parlay from the same card, and a small 2-3 leg parlay is obviously vastly different. This is the point I'm making at the end of the day.

Could it have been worded/said better? Sure, but I think anyone with some IQ could understand what I was trying to get at. But hey, some people just have to spew **** out of their mouth instead of add anything constructive.

You're right but you could still get +950 odds on the same card @ 8/12 with your favorites only. You're playing it even extra safe by adding favorites from the next card. But damn if you put 15 of the favorites of your choice for 2 cards together you can take them at +9500. So even if you only get 60%, if your confident in that 60%, combine them from 2 cards and throw away 100 you could make 10k not too uncomfortably tbh. You're speaking sense .. but add some more risk to see the real reward

edit: lol actually I just described what @theproishiphop did in that picture. Damn, that's a plug. Never ceases to amaze me how one can get creative with their betting

* Edited at 03.24.2022, 9:39 AM ET *

Yeah I'm in the uk I use Ladbrokes, it only lets you bet on 1 whole card at a time and only on the week of that card , I might change to paddy power cos I just looked and at least it is showing the whole 273 card too 

You're 100% right bemore, gotta give a lil more risk for that big reward.

@Welsh, you ever try bovada or sportsbetting.ag? Offshore books I'm not sure if they're available in the UK, but I would assume so?

You should definitely try to get a book where they have future cards early, it's a real good way to get that value early and make more $ betting.

Yeah I know, pisses me off, I did go in once and do a 6 way parlay over a few months , made about 400-450 profit, I will try those us ones 

No just tried and it said unavailable on aportsbetting.ag, wasn't to pay by credit card and said that, probably as I'm in the uk , I will stick with paddypower at least il get the following card too

I told someone on here from the UK to use Paddy power. Has more fights months in advance compared to other sites

Plus on Paddy power you can bet on a ko/tko and submission separately getting much better odds. Most just have it combined to just any stoppage

Sure, I have Saldana Nicolau Kara-France and Barbarena all sitting at under 30% at Tapology when I last checked. Gutierrez was at 37% as I mentioned and is my 5th dog.

@hlgh Very well said on betting.

I will say though about the timing of betting that while you're absolutely right that being early can net you a great line, the same can be said for being very late.

I'm talking about betting dogs, especially big dogs where the line keep moving all the way up til the fighters are entering the cage and there's a combination of last minute parlay and spur of the moment betting coupled with FOMO where people rush to put money on the favorite and you can get a really big extra edge.

It doesn't apply to all bookies so you gotta have a bookie that will adjust the odds live ( a lot of them go the other way and lower the odds on both sides just before match start in anticipation of mitigating livebet losses).
The ones I have that will adjust up lines until the last minute is Pinnacle and Betfair.

Does Nicolau train with Jackson Wink or Nova Unao? I hate when sites have 2 different training camps listed

Appreciate it!

And yeah, I feel like that's our job as MMA handicappers to KNOW or do our best to know which fighters lines will move which way. Always have to think about factors like public betting coming in on a fighter, recency bias, injuries, all kind of things.

I've also been trying to study the different books as best  I can, cause you can truly take advantage of it.

For me, I notice if you're in the states. Use BetMGM for good odds on fights, they typically change their lines late or not at all. DraftKings does the best for live betting, as they seem to keep the lines open the longest and give you good odds as well live (don't suggest using their odds for pre-betting as they're terrible).

FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM have early lines for fights too, so you can take advantage of that on all of them. I personally think FanDuel is terrible when lines come out, so they're the best to take adv of.

* Edited at 03.24.2022, 11:05 AM ET *

I honestly think MMA capping is one of the best ways to gamble on sports.  There are always angles in everything.  I just think for people that are not just casuals, there is some real value in MMA wagering.

I also think the bookies are getting wise and putting a lot more caps on their early lines.  They throw out these arbitrary lines before fully opening up the books on their lines.  I would say you can still find some gems and especially on the regional scene.

A couple that come to mind recently both happened on back to back nights.  On March 4th, a post-lim fight between Elijah Harris and former Bellator vet Chuck Campbell on Cage Warriors 133 (I believe).  Campbell hadn't fought in three years and his last loss was a split decision robbery where he clearly beat Tyrell Fortune.  I am sure it caused him some frustration but my God, they set Chuck Campbell as a +140 underdog.  I was able to snag him at +110 (because of my book releasing it late) and the ******* line in 48 hours moved as high as -410 when it closed.  Chuck Campbell cruised to a non competitive UD.  Elijah Harris going into that fight was a middling amateur that fought subpar competition and was 2-0 as a pro in some smoker Gladiator Challenge league in Cali with wins over a 1-0 and 0-2 opponent.  Free money.

The very next day, Khulekani Hlongwa vs Diego Bandu on a South African EFC 92 card.  I think I caught a few books cheating to get lines ahead of the curve because Tapology listed the wrong Hlongwa.  They listed  Mzwandile "Shakebone" Hlongwa on this site and a few books had him as the opponent.  But Shakebone is a monster of a middleweight (go look at his fights on UFC Fight Pass or YouTube).  Khulekani "Cold Steel" Hlongwa is a subpar middleweight with a mediocre losing record.  And more importantly than anything else is that Diego "PangaMan" Bandu is a an absolute savage beast.  He is a stone cold killer in the Octagon.  But they had him listed against a savvy veteran who is a nasty striker in Shakebone instead of the actual Hlongwa.  Diego was listed as a +170 underdog.  Due to the error they limited me to $30 bets so I had to create some accounts on a few books that would accept.  PangaMan beat his ass for 15 minutes to a vicious Unanimous Decision.  I honestly think he was testing his cardio and playing with his food.  Anyways, that ended up being a nice weekend.

* Edited at 03.24.2022, 11:37 AM ET *

Same with Saldana, does he train with Fight Ready or MMA Lab 😓

yea but a lot of handicappers are biased or have ****** ideas. like people say dog or pass are great but cj saftic constantly tries to make fighters seem like ****, i remember when he just crapped on every opponent islam makhachev faced. he also is usually bias(atleast for me. a good example is chris curtis- he picked him because he knew him). another one thats bias is die hard mma, he actually can be good at this but he constantly makes the same mistake and thats being bias and over exagerrating small holes in a fighters game. hes backed william knight in every ufc fight hes had lol, that should tell you something.

there are some rare good ones like lucrative mma. but its tough to find a good one. maybe i can be one hehe

CJ is a good dude.  And he really knows his stuff.  He backed Chris Curtis twice and rightfully so.  He was on the fence against Brendan Allen a little more but Action Man fights for your money.  That is what you want in a fighter.  And he was right about fading Phil Hawes.  Hawes is a liability... now had he backed up Action Man on Dricus Du Plessis before Curtis broke his wrist, then I would have really faded him.  But you have to go with who you prefer, for sure.  At the end of the day, it's about making money.  If you are profitable that is really all that matters.

@modest pretty sure he trains at fight ready

honestly curtis beat guys that are better than du plessis. but yea cj does know some hidden info which is nice. i just dont like the way he ****s on fighters

not to mention he's up like 300K in the last calendar year and gives the plays away for free on twitter. 

I should clarify.  Had he put Action Man as high as where he slotted him against Phil Hawes I would have faded it hard.  I think Du Plessis brings a much harder match up.  I hear what you are saying as far as respect to fighters.  I think when he and Paul are trying to make their case it's him trying to make a compelling argument speaking for his dollar and not his personal sentiments to them as people.  He really takes the emotion out of it.  I also know that he has said, if you were on Phil Hawes do not be messaging him on Twitter *****ing about how he ****** up your ticket.  He says do not tweet at fighters about your wagers, good or bad, at all.  I think that is really important.  He also is an advocate to making the sport safe.  He has talked about dissuading regional cards in his area from allowing certain fighters to fight that are clearly concussion prone or have a bad history of it.  He isn't a perfect person but I think his bluntness is more to emphasize why he doesn't want to put money on one side or the other.  But, I can see how calling a fighter a "bum" may offend you.

And I know this doesn't go here... but I do think Du Plessis is going to **** up Fluffy pretty good.  I think Hernandez is going to be a much better fight for him than Chris Curtis.