UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I hope I see 27 or 28 submissions... it's about damn time!  I want to see some mid air triangle choke action from a botched flying takedown attempt.  I want to see a flying scissor heel hook midway in a fight from an underdog who is getting dominated in the standup.  Let's snatch some necks people!

Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R2
I really think this is so one sided its not even funny.... i really like Derrick Lewis but this is one of the worst stylistic match ups he could possibly get. Blaydes is the best wrestler in the division hands down and has some of the nastiest ground and pound to go along with it. lewis has bricks in his hands and can turn anyones lights off with one clean connection but that really is the only chance he has to win this fight and sadly for him i just think hes going to get chain wrestled until he is gassed and finished in ground and pound. Lock of the night in my opinion. Blaydes via relentless takedowns into ground and pound.

Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
Daukaus has fast hands for heavyweight and is very powerful with combination punches. I really think Oleinik needs to take this to the mat as quickly as possible, he has looked good in areas in his previous fights having derrick lewis in trouble early on before getting KO`d and i think just about everyone knows what his game plan is as it really hasnt changed over the years and it works so damn well. unfortunately for Oleinik i dont think he is going to get the chance to show it, Daukas will have a massively speed advantage and his combination boxing is going to be too much for Oleinik to handle at the ripe age of 43. Daukas gets a big win here early over a big name in Oleinik by TKO/KO in round 1.

Arlovski vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R1
Arlovski has massively changed his game over the past few years to be more of a point fighter and has been mostly sucessful when fighting relatively mid tier fighters, some fights have been close and he has been lucky to get the win in some cases, namely his last fight against Boser which i personally think Boser should have won but on saying that it was an awful fight where niether of them did anything conclusive to 100% earn the win. Tom Aspinall is a great up and coming prospect with great boxing and heavy hands, he is also a Balck Belt in BJJ but we just havent seen it in the UFC yet due to his excellent Boxing. Tom Aspinal trains with Tyson Fury and also with darren till, both of which in there own right are incredibly technical and gifted strikers. I do not think that Arlovski`s recent out pointing game plan will work against Aspinall, he is very fast for a heavyweight and has bricks in his hands. i think with Arlovski`s tendacy to get rocked and finished when fighting the upper tier heavyweights with power does not bode well for him in this fight. Although Aspinal is not in that category on paper right now i think that is only down to the fact he has only had 2 fights in the UFC. He is certainly one to watch and im confident he gets a pretty fast TKO/KO win here in the first round.

Klose vs. Pena
Luis Pena, SUB, R2
With this fight i am going to go against the percentages here, i could well be completely wrong and Klose could win this fight very decisively however i just have a feeling that Pena is going to come into this fight really wanting to prove himself, hes been on the wrong side of a couple of split decisions aswell as being Sub`d in his last fight against Worthy which was quite a shock. i think Pena will look a lot more refined and improved in this fight and with Klose having shown to have a few issues previously with Long, tall and rangy fighters i think Pena has the potential to give him trouble. This fight could Also hit the mat and Pena is always dangerous down there with his flexibility, long limbs and unorthordox unique submission game. im going to go out there and take a risk and say Pena catches him in something weird when it hits the floor and gets a sub to get himself back in the win column.

* Edited at 02.17.2021, 10:41 AM ET *

Still holding 15 strong on this card!  Let’s see how many we got on Saturday..

Huh... I’m really trying to find value in Pena since picking dogs is pretty much the only time I’ll pull the trigger on a bet. But I’ve never seen him manage range well and seeing him get subbed by freaking Khama Worthy makes me curious as to why people are picking him to have advantages on the ground or in striking vs Klose?

Klose went to the mat with Dariush, Giagos, Bobby Green, and Vannata. What makes people think that if he can get up from Dariush that he can’t get up from Pena? Not to mention he has better SigStrike accuracy and defense than Pena against a much tougher schedule.

On paper, Klose should win easily. Pena is a journeyman type to come out of the last of a dying breed of TUF fighters, I don't think he lasts long in the UFC. 

Off topic:  @ Tie, I read ur profile, I take Omega 3-6-9 Fish, Flax, Borage 3600mg 3 a day, I swear it helps in healing the body. Cheapest place I’ve found it is on amazon of course.

Yeah, good **** @Hippie! There are a lot of things people can do to prevent accumulation of damage to the brain while still enjoying the sports they love. My goal in life is to develop treatments for concussions that prevent long term damage. Some of the best things out there right now are actually all natural!

• Fish Oil (or any PUFAs)
• Creatine! The metabolic chain in your brain gets messed up after a concussion and providing creating as a support system for about a week-post injury has shown to aid in microgliosis recovery time.
• Antioxidants: They aren't a silver bullet but one of the adverse reactions to the energetics in your brain (mitochondria is the power house of the cell) is a build of of Oxidizing agents in those cells. Blueberries are my favorite natural form of Antioxidants
• DO NOT TAKE COX2 inhibitors more commonly known as type 2 NSAIDs. These include very high doses of Aspirin (normal doses are fine if taken as reccomended), Celebrex, and indomethacin are the most common. Instead opt for Acetaminophen as it won't slow down your helper cells (macrophages) OR increase your bleeding which could lead to a stroke. A lot of people take asprin after a concussion and it can lead to stroke and exacerbate the injury. There's a reason they tell you to stop taking it a week before surgery.
• Blue light glasses at night time. Avoiding blue light (and red light therapy) are under clinical investigation for helping recovery from concussions. Nothing conclusive out yet, but it's a promise field of research. If anything it will just help you sleep better.

This is the greatest sport in the world and we gotta protect our athletes so we can keep them around for as long as possible!

Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
flip floppy on this one but if walt harris ko'ed oleinik i think daukaus can do it.

@ Tie, great information!!  Thx!

@Tieoken I'm leaning towards Pena just because of the matchup. It's true that Klose survived on the mat with some previous tough customers, but I don't like that he always ends up there in the first place. Pena is quite good at controlling position on the mat, and he's good at keeping people there if he wants to. And I think against Klose, who is the more explosive puncher, Pena will definitely want to keep it on the mat. Klose has also been prone to overextend on his punches, which is going to give Pena the opportunities he needs to slip and clinch or grab a leg. Klose also fights emotionally, and I feel Pena is the more composed of the two. Actually, I think it was composure that helped Worthy beat Pena. A composed fighter would see that guillotine and slap it on, just as Worthy did. An emotional fighter, like Klose, maybe misses that opportunity because all he wants to do is get up and bash his opponent's face in. I absolutely believe Klose has the ability to beat Pena, but given their tendencies, I just favor Pena in the matchup. 

The Shana Dobson who fought Agapova is better than the Shana Dobson who fought Lauren Mueller, which means she’s definitely improving. Her hands have cleaned up a bit and she’s throwing now with a little more power and intent. She’s also pretty good at capitalizing on her opponents’ mistakes and exploits them when they’re off balance. (That’s how she was able to toss around an overly aggressive Agapova, and that’s how she’s often able to get the sweep when someone’s in her guard.) That said, there’s still a lot that concerns me. Defensively, she keeps her hands a bit low and exposes herself when she attacks. (She got caught by nasty counters from both Cachoeira and Mazo.) She also accepts takedowns too often. Even though she can use that sweep to try to get on top, it doesn’t always work, and she doesn’t really have an offensive guard. Her biggest problem, in my view, is that she’s too committed to getting into a rhythm, and she struggles when her opponents pressure her and keep her from getting settled. Let’s be honest, Dobson won against Agapova, but she didn’t beat Agapova. Agapova beat herself. O'Neill’s fighting style is going to give Dobson similar problems. She pressures forward with punches (albeit sloppy ones) until she gets her opponent to the fence. There she grinds until she can get it to the mat (and she’ll likely get Dobson to the mat). She’ll definitely have the advantage there where she’ll look for the choke or the armbar. If she ends up in Shana’s guard, Casey has shown some decent GnP; not fight-ending stuff, but enough to wear on Dobson and control the fight. O'Neill can actually let loose in Dobson’s guard since it isn’t really an offensive one. So long as O'Neill can prevent the sweep, she can do some damage here. O'Neill has pretty poor striking defense though, and Dobson will probably crack her a few times as she’s coming forward. I don’t think it’ll be enough to stop O'Neill from getting it to the fence, and ultimately to the mat. I see this as an O'Neill sub or TKO by GnP in the 1st or 2nd round. 

@Tieoken Also, Klose was originally training for Jai Herbert, who is more of a KO threat than a submission threat. Pena presents a totally different challenge, so I worry that Klose will be flying by the seat of his pants and will be more likely to make mistakes. At least he's had a full camp, though, so we'll see...

Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes, TKO, R2
Lewis is one of my all-time favorite fighters but this is the worst matchup for him since DC.

Vieira vs. Kunitskaya
Yana Kunitskaya, DEC
These odds are lopsided and the picks are too. Vieira could absolutely lose a point striking battle against Screams McGoo over here

Minner vs. Rosa
Charles Rosa, DEC
Might go full galaxy-brain and bet on both of them by submission

Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, TKO, R1
Why must they do the boa like this?

Imavov vs. Hawes
Nassourdine Imavov, TKO, R2
thinking about this fight makes my hands all sweaty, in a good way

Arlovski vs. Aspinall
Andrei Arlovski, DEC
Andrei "**** your Parlay and your Mother" Arlovski

Wineland vs. Castañeda
John Castañeda, TKO, R2
Wineland should be retired

Erosa vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, TKO, R2
Still can't believe Landwehr became M-1 champion. What an absolute animal

Spivak vs. Vanderaa
Sergey Spivak, SUB, R2
I think Vanderaa made a mistake asking for this fight. He's gonna get judo'd

@FistyMcKickerChoke


Andrei "**** your Parlay and your Mother" Arlovski

I demand that he officially adopts that nickname lol!

* Edited at 02.17.2021, 1:36 PM ET *

To a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. That’s the feeling I get when I watch Eddie Wineland. He’s had the same fighting style with very few adjustments since coming into the UFC (like, a decade ago), and he pretty much takes the same approach to beating every opponent, no matter how unique the challenge. He’s pretty good at what he does, though. He has good head movement, moves quickly in and out of range, and throws quick combinations. He also has pretty good takedown defense, meaning that most of his fights are contested on the feet. However, his striking defense has holes, and it looks like he gets flustered against opponents that pressure forward like he does. He wants to back his opponents up and choose his shots, but he hesitates against more explosive opponents who let their hands go. He’s also vulnerable to being countered since he leaves his hands low when he’s throwing. He’ll need to be wary of this against Castañeda, who has fast counters and advances forward just like he does. Castañeda isn’t really a sniper, so I don’t think Wineland has to worry about an O’Malley-style KO, but Castañeda does take angles and throw big shots over the top. Those can absolutely catch Wineland since he’s always dropping his hands. Castañeda has several submissions on his record, but I think Wineland will be able to prevent the takedown and keep the fight standing. But I think Castañeda’s pressure will cause Wineland to hesitate in the exchanges that matter in route to a decision win. Honestly, I don’t think this fight looks a whole lot different than Wineland’s fights against Perez and Dodson. I’m going with Castañeda by dec.

Spivak vs. Vanderaa
Jared Vanderaa, DEC
I can't believe it, but here we go, at +200 Jared Vanderaa is the best bet on this card in my opinion. He has dubious wins at best and that is causing him to be overlooked in this fight that is a stylistically unfavorable matchup for Spivak IMO. Spivak is a good sambo/judoka grappler and strong from the top position, where we have really seen him struggle is against other decent wrestlers and people with athletic ability, Walt Harris is more of an athlete than Vanderaa by a mile. However, Tybura and Felipe have about the same level of athleticism, and Vanderaa is definitely a better wrestler than Felipe. Team Quest operates very well on the ground, their PPP method of ground and pound patented by Hendo is now a hallmark across the modern UFC. I think that this is more or less kept standing by the BJJ black belt in Vanderaa and turns into a sloppy striking battle where I give the edge in power and ability slightly to Vanderaa. If this were an even money pick I would play Spivak because in my opinion he should be favored to win since Vanderaa is untested against a grappler of his quality, but at +200. It's worth a shot IMO.

* Edited at 02.17.2021, 2:25 PM ET *

Blaydes vs. Lewis
Curtis Blaydes, SUB, R3
Blaydes gonna out grapple Lewis

Minner vs. Rosa
Charles Rosa, DEC
Most people think Rosa is better, so I went with em.

Oleinik vs. Daukaus
Chris Daukaus, DEC
Daukaus got pop on his hands...Oleinik is slow...good nite Oleinik TKO

Imavov vs. Hawes
Nassourdine Imavov, DEC
I think Imavov has enough ability to avoid big power in the 1st, stay long and disciplined and beat Hawes in the long game

Arlovski vs. Aspinall
Tom Aspinall, TKO, R2
Aspinall is the future

Gordon vs. Chavez
Danny Chavez, DEC
I believe in Chavez

Klose vs. Pena
Drakkar Klose, DEC
Klose is better than Pena

Wineland vs. Castañeda
John Castañeda, DEC
Wineland is old and washed

Erosa vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, DEC
Landwehr is a problem

Alves vs. Sabatini
Rafael Alves, DEC
Alves is a problem

Dobson vs. O'Neill
Shana Dobson, DEC
Dobson has momentum...her opponent has no UFC experience

Skelly vs. Emmers
Jamall Emmers, TKO, R2
Experts are picking Emmers..he has some great wins

Zahabi vs. Rodriguez
Drako Rodriguez, DEC
Zahabi is a can

Spivak vs. Vanderaa
Sergey Spivak, TKO, R3
Vanderaa is fun but Spivak will grind Vanderaa and take him out via GnP

Alves’ record is somewhat misleading. He’s been finished 9 times (yeesh), but he hasn’t lost a fight since 2016. He’s on a 5-fight win streak against pretty formidable competition, and it’s clear that he’s grown into a better fighter over the last five years. Against Flores, he showed patience and good cage control, tight defense, and explosive offense. He also mixed in some unorthodox strikes, making it harder for his opponent to predict what’s coming. He’s actually quite unpredictable at range, so I imagine after being in there with him for five minutes his opponents would be eager to either get it to the fence or the ground. Felipe Douglas tried to do this against him, and he had some success, but Alves managed to create some space and catch him with a big right hand. Despite winning against Douglas, Alves didn’t look phenomenal being mushed against the fence, and this will play right into Sabatini’s strength. Of Sabatini’s 13 wins, 10 of them are by submission. He has really good pressure along the fence, and he’s content to keep the fight there as long as it takes to get the takedown. He’s only been finished once in 16 pro fights, and I don’t expect that loss to be duplicated any time soon. (If you haven’t seen it, it’s his loss to James Gonzalez. It’s pretty ******* gnarly.) What’s crazy is that Sabatini was back in the cage 7 months after having his arm torn apart. The dude is unquestionably tough. Both guys have the cardio to go the distance, but Sabatini’s style will likely wear on Alves’ cardio rather than the other way around. For me, this fight comes down to who will control it along the fence since that’s where most of it is likely to be contested. From what I’ve seen, that’ll be Sabatini. I have him by dec.