UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

This is a potential FOTN, right here. (Rosa’s already had three of them.) Minner has good pressure and volume and keeps his hands high. He’s super busy in the clinch and has a low stance to get the takedown off of catching leg kicks. He reeeeeeally likes that guillotine, too (of his 22 pro sub wins, 10 of them are by guillotine). Sometimes, though, he threatens the guillotine and hangs on to it when it isn’t there, and this has cost him position before. But Minner doesn’t seem to mind. He’s kill or be killed and doesn’t often go to decision. The last time he even went past the 2nd round was in 2017, and he lost that fight. That’s Minner’s big problem. He doesn’t do well when he doesn’t dispatch his opponents right away. He’s also pretty reckless and puts himself in danger of being submitted in his frantic attempts to wrestle his opponents to the ground. This will be dangerous against Rosa, who submitted jiu jitsu ace, Manny Bermudez. (I remember being blown away by that when it happened.) Rosa also survived Bryce Mitchell’s sub attempts, which was pretty impressive despite losing that fight. This makes me think that Minner will need to dig deep to actually catch Rosa, who hasn’t been subbed yet in his entire pro career. On top of that, he’ll need to be careful not to expose himself in the process, but that’s not really Minner’s style. I think Rosa survives the first round onslaught and possibly catches the triangle or armbar from the bottom. If not, it’ll go into later rounds where Rosa should have an increasing advantage. Rosa by sub or dec.

This to me is actually really good matchmaking. Both fighters have the same record and are on a hot streak. They also have styles that could make for a barn burner. Hawes is explosive with powerful combinations, has intense pressure (at least in the first round), and throws sharp, straight punches. He also has good leg kicks and fairly good control on the ground if the fight goes there. I still have questions about his cardio, though. All of his wins have come by finish (mostly KO), and all but one of them have been in the first round. Any time he’s gotten out of the first round, it hasn’t gone his way save for his pro debut in 2014. Imavov has yet to be finished since his pro debut in 2016 (has not yet been KO’d) and has more experience going the distance. He throws good feints and manages the range well with his karate-style stance. He also moves well and has a slip ‘n’ rip counter style. He uses this well against fighters who throw looping punches or tend to gas as the fight goes. Imavov is also more accurate than Hawes and tends to take less damage despite going the distance more often. He also has nasty elbows in the clinch, and that’ll make it tough for his opponents to want to pressure him along the fence. It’s tough to call this fight because Imavov did get rocked in the first round against Jordan Williams, but he survived to take over in the later rounds. If he gets cracked by Hawes in the first, it’ll be a short night for him. However, if he can avoid the big shots early, I think Imavov has the cardio and the talent to out strike a tiring Hawes in the later rounds. I have Imavov by dec.

It would be interesting to read about the fight  Zahabi vs. Rodriguez. You make a good fight

* Edited at 02.15.2021, 3:10 PM ET *

For real, really impress with how much effort you put into your breakdown, You must watch a ton a footage. I could never do that because It get boring after 2 fighters and I like to be suprise when the fight happen. I personaly just have good memory so my breakdown are just off that and my betting is really good and since like October my ROI is close to 1000%

* Edited at 02.15.2021, 4:06 PM ET *

both on same card

dunno who I’m picking yet..

We lose Fish but gain a Ranger. 

Tapology never die!

Spivak vs. Vanderaa
Sergey Spivak, SUB, R2
Maybe Vanderaa KO’s Spivak like Saturday’s fight with u know who.. “cough”

@RangerJW

Not only are your breakdowns informative and detailed, they are also very well written and by that I mean I don't get board of reading them halfway through like a do with a few other people who make long posts like that. Keep up the great work!

This is another potential FOTN candidate. Erosa likes to cut off the cage and bully his opponents as the fight goes on. In his last fight, he doubled his output over his previous fights, showing that he’s still hungry. He also has slick D’arce chokes and triangles from the bottom. His record doesn’t really do justice to how gnarly he can be. He lost three in a row, but to pretty tough competition in Devonte Smith, Grant Dawson, and Julio Arce. (He was arguably winning the fight against Arce before he took a shin to the dome.) Like Erosa, Landwehr likes to cut off the cage and stay in his opponent’s face. His approach is a bit different, though. Erosa uses the first round as a feeler and then turns it up in the later rounds. Landwehr gets right to it. His volume is really hard to match, and if his opponents don’t put him away early, he’s likely to wear them down on the way to a W. This gives Landwehr an edge since Erosa is somewhat of a slow starter. Landwehr has also shown that he can defend even the tightest D’arce chokes (he fought off a nasty one from Burns in his UFC debut), which sort of takes that out of Erosa’s arsenal. Landwehr has great scrambles too, so I think it’s unlikely that Erosa gets to slap on that triangle if it goes to the ground, especially as they get slippery in later rounds. They both keep their hands low, which means they’ll probably beat the **** out of each other. Landwehr’s volume and fast start gives him the advantage though, and with Erosa fighting from behind later in the fight, that makes him more likely to make a mistake and get reckless. It’s close, but I lean towards Landwehr by a grueling dec.

Ranger these breakdowns are awesome, I feel like I’m getting more observant when rewatching tape after reading them. I know I’ve said it before but I’m gonna keep saying it, I really appreciate what you’ve been doing lately and it’s clear I’m not the only one. 

@RangerJW definitely has a real skill. I watch plenty of fights but I'm really **** at critically analysing the fights and breaking them down. My descriptions are limited to simple phrases "he has a good jab" or "I'm concerned about his gas tank" simply because I just say what I remember about the fighters off the top of my head and the fact that I can't write well. What he does is incredible!

i have to agree with everyone else, props to the ranger for producing what are probly the best breakdowns on tapology at this point in time. i read every one. keep up the good work

* Edited at 02.15.2021, 9:59 PM ET *

Gordon vs. Chavez
Danny Chavez, DEC
Chavez has a better looking record and at -110 is a steal. Chavez has never been finished either by submission or TKO. Gordon has been TKO'ed 3 out of his last 5 fights. At -110 for both fighters, Chavez is a much better pick.

My ROI is about 1000% percent over the last few month and I land 5 out of 6 parley averging 9 to 1. This ain't my bets so far but my Ideas, Tell me If you disagree and Look into it yourself . 

The general  trick is to find Value and anyone who bet in the -400s don't know how to gamble, because they have to win 5 time to make profit and that really hard in MMA. And the bookies know they gonna win. Trick is to bet slight favourites and underdogs (-200 or less). I also gamble for fun. Not in to it just for fun so I’m no expert 


Pretty Confendent Parley Piece at Good  Value- 


Casey O'Neal' -160- Shana Dobson is terrible and  it was more how Agapova lost more then Dobson winning and Dobson still not that great  And this is coming from the only guy autisic enough to bet Dobson and be somewhat confendent in it because Agapova **** and should be -1500 agaist anyone. The Agapova fight is really infleating Dobson Value. Casey should breeze through her and 60% impled probilty for Casey to not be a reterd is a still


Drakar Klose -200- And use the Decsion Prop bet when it comes out. Draker is really high on my **** list, But I have to adment he a good fight, And Lous Pena not great lossing alot of fights .Draker is a beast at winning decsion at the lower level and probley could of beat Benny Darush and Im high on Benny.

Dogs I like


Yana Kuniskya by Decsion +340- Why Not It WMMA Underdog and giveing me 22% chance of Ketlen fight terrible is a steal

Andri Arlovski by Decsion +340- His odds are really good even tho I think Aspinal should win. Should be the same odds as Daukous beating Arloski. 22%


Big dogs I like- Crazy bets with chance. 

Derrick Lewis by KO +350
Tell me you don't give Lewis 22% chance of sleeping Blaydes because Lewis could Lewis and Lewis is 6 and 1 the last time he's an Underdog. hes probley gonna get wresle****

* Edited at 02.16.2021, 5:12 AM ET *

Ive been waiting for this matchup for some time...this one wont last long... at all..I have Blaydes taking Lewis out in GnP in under 4 minutes 1st round...  Lewis is REALLY "over valued/ rediculously hyed and supported by the UFC"  and truly benefits from such a weak division... But none the less.. Blaydes is the absolutely LAST fighter you would want your fighter (Lewis) to face... the Strengths of Blaydes will just exploit things further for Lewis..... 

Skelly vs. Emmers
Chas Skelly, SUB, R3
SKELLLLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Something unique about Tapology and this card is that Chas Skelly is a +180 underdog according to the bookies yet Tapology has him favored.  

To the people who have been here for a few years, does the Tapology favorite underdogs usually hit?

The last time I remember Tapology heavily favoring an underdog fighter was Ovince St Preux vs Alonzo Menifield back in September.  I placed a bet on OSP's moneyline and it worked out for me then but how often does this happen?  OSP was like a +120 then, this is even bigger where Chas is a +180 underdog.

* Edited at 02.16.2021, 10:23 AM ET *