UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Tapology is also favoring Oleinik despite Daukaus being a big favorite odds wise. It's not uncommon for Tapology to go against the mould. Usually it's with fighters that are veterans vs prospects. Sometimes it's irrational on our end (we love the fighter) sometimes the bookies are irrational (thinking an untested prospect is good.)

The perfect example of this is how Aspinall is HUGE favorite over Arlovski and the KO prop favored too despite Aspinall's subpar record and Arlovski's vastly superior one. But hey, I'm still picking Aspinall, so maybe I'm ******** too.

You know the Daukaus thing.  I wrote him off before the Porter fight and also the Nascimento fight.  I watched his fights before the UFC and I told myself this guy isn't anything special.  This guy has surprised me with how quick and efficient his striking is.  He is now fighting another high level BJJ guy who can get knocked out much like Nascimento did.  The only thing with Oleinik is that he has faced much stronger strikers than Daukaus before but his age might also be catching up to him. I will put one unit on Daukaus by TKO for this one.

As far as Emmers and Skelly go, I don't see why Emmers is such a big favorite.  They are both relatively unknown and have similar records.  I will put half a unit on Skelly via submission for a nice payout.

Aspinall is a great fighter.  I love his composure and the power in his hands.  But like you said, unproven fighters should never be big favorites ever.  I literally got my soul ripped out of me when Vieira got tapped out by Hernandez and I swore to never bet a big favorite ever again who was unproven.  

* Edited at 02.16.2021, 11:59 AM ET *

Also in unusual cases. Bookies wont always have the most likely winner as the favorite. Just like if you see someone put huge money on the underdog, the bookies tighten the margin because they cannot survive that huge of a hit. So if a fighter is popular or the masses of drones of fans start putting large amounts of money on the lease likely to win fighter, he can now become the betting favorite. Money can indicate the favorite rather than skill.

The same way UFC raises red flags for fixed fights and starts investigations. -400 fighter has huge money placed on his opponent at +350 right before a fight. Odds shift dramatically. Investigation is automatic for odds shift.

I have to thank everyone here for opening my eyes to opportunities on cards.  I learned the hard way before finding this website.  This site is bookmarked forever for me.   

This fight is a little more nuanced than it looks on paper. Professionally, Zahabi and Rodriguez have similar records, each with a KO loss and the same number of finishes. However, Rodriguez has much more combat experience if you include his amateur fights (13 total) and the fact that he’s had pro boxing experience. Rodriguez has also won his last three while Zahabi is on a two-fight skid (one of which was a devastating KO). I don’t want to pump up Rodriguez too much, though, since one of his more recent opponents who took him the distance was 6-13 at the time. Stylistically, Zahabi isn’t very dynamic. He has a good right feint-left jab-right uppercut combination and uses his jab and kicks to establish range. He also has decent scrambles and has punctuated moments of aggression. Otherwise, he keeps his head on the center line with little foot movement and waits for his opponents to make mistakes coming in. As a result, he’s a relatively low volume fighter. He does keep his hands high, though, which makes it harder for his opponents to inflict damage and makes them more likely to try to take him down, which they do. Zahabi’s takedown defense isn’t great and he frequently ends up on his back. To his credit, he hasn’t been subbed yet, but I think that speaks more to the quality of opposition rather than his skill level. Technically, I’d say that Rodriguez has had the better quality opponents throughout his amateur and pro career (though not by much). He has decent leg kicks and counters his opponents kicks fairly well. He also has good submissions and a good eye for when to transition from one sub attempt to another. (That triangle sub he got on Mana Martinez was during a scramble and showed that he has a good feel for timing.) I think Rodriguez has more tools than Zahabi, and I think he has the slight speed advantage as well. He should also be able to catch Zahabi’s range-establishing kicks and shoot for the takedown. I think Zahabi ends up on his back early, and if he doesn’t get subbed, he’ll get out pointed by the busier and quicker Rodriguez. Rodriguez by sub or dec.

To be fair, that 6-13 guy also went to decisions and hung in there with great fighters. Several UFC fighters, DWCS alumnus, and rising prospects including undefeated Richard Palencia, Fernando Padilla (subbed Darrick Minner), Patchy Mix (bellator title-challenger), Kevin Natividad (UFC now), Chase Gibson (DWCS), Dwight Joseph (DWCS), Anderson Dos-Santos (UFC), Jamall Emmers (UFC).

Went to decision with Anderson Dos Santos, got taken out late in the third by Patchy Mix. I think he's just a tough ******* customer.

Also, I think the only advantage Zahabi has in this fight is his grappling, I'll be very surprised if this is a sub. I expect an early KO or decision for Drako.

* Edited at 02.16.2021, 1:54 PM ET *

Good points about the 6-13 guy. That's a hell of a schedule for a dude fighting on a regional circuit. 

Gordon looked good in his fight against Fishgold, especially after getting TKO’d by Charles Oliveira. In his last fight, Gordon showed good grappling and sub defense and demonstrated that he can do some damage from inside the guard. He has a good sprawl and good control on the ground, cuts off the cage, and puts a lot of power into his shots. Unfortunately, the latter makes him a bit slow for a featherweight. Gordon seems to struggle against fighters with speed and pressure, which was evident in his last three loses. Danny Chavez certainly has speed. He throws fast combinations and powerful kicks, which have the potential to do significant damage to Gordon’s lead leg given his wide stance. Chavez also has nasty counters. In his last fight, he made TJ Brown pay every time he came forward. While that fight went to a decision, there were plenty of times where Chavez had Brown visibly hurt. Gordon is 2-3 in his last 5, and all three loses were by T/KO. While Chavez isn’t Ferreira or Oliveira, he is comparable insofar as he’s a nightmare matchup for Gordon. I see Chavez catching Gordon early in a flurry. If it doesn’t put Gordon’s lights out, it’ll make it very difficult for him to recover and get the W. Chavez by KO or dec.

The Gordon v Chavez fight is going to be a good one. TJ Brown is a better wrestler than Gordon and Chavez took HIM down 4 times while keeping a 100% TDDefense. I really don't see a path to victory for Flash Gordon here. Chavez has seemed to evolve these last 4 years because the Chavez who lost to Aldic ain't here no more. I didn't expect much from Chavez initially, but now I wouldn't be surprised to see a number next to his name come 2022.

FFFF

When this matchup was first announced, my initial thinking was that Klose would have it in the bag. Now, I’m not so sure. Klose probably has the striking advantage with quick and powerful combinations and heavy pressure. Pena has responded well to that in the past, though, like he did against Steve Garcia and Matt Frevola (I actually think Pena should have won against Frevola). Dariush also exposed several holes in Klose’s game, like how easily he gives up his back, which play to the strengths of Pena. For one, Pena is very good at securing advantageous positions (side control, mount, taking the back, etc.) once the fight goes to the fence or hits the ground. And I think it absolutely will go to the mat once Pena decides he doesn’t want to try to out-point the more aggressive and explosive striker in Klose. Both fighters have pretty decent cardio and should be equally fresh as the fight goes. However, Klose is the more emotional fighter, and he often overextends on his punches later in the fight. He also wears his frustration against opponents that give him problems. Against the taller and rangier Pena, this could open him up to counter punches or takedowns. Pena also makes fewer mistakes than Klose and should have more opportunities to exploit him throughout the fight. If Pena stays patient, uses his longer range to frustrate Klose, and then exploits his emotions to turn it into a grappling match, Pena can very well take it. I think he’ll do just that. Pena by dec.

* Edited at 02.16.2021, 8:00 PM ET *

Blaydes vs. Lewis
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R2
The only reason why I am choosing Derrick Lewis in this bouts is for a number of reasons. The first thing that caught my eye was the value given to Lewis as an underdog. The second reason is his veteran knowledge and the time he has had to prepare for this fight; fight was rescheduled due to Blaydes being positive for COVID-19. This interruption is enough to give me Elmore confidence in Lewis ability to win here. He possesses the ability to knock anyone in the division with one punch and I am very confident he is going to take his time, trade heavy shots to discourage Blaydes from moving forward and make it difficult for the takedowns to occur. Blaydes has a better gas tank in my opinion here, but in a time where older veteran fighters are dominating with experience, im going to back Derrick Lewis to snipe a KO here.

Erosa vs. Landwehr
Nate Landwehr, TKO, R1
Landwehr is a deadly striker who has fought in many different organizations including M-1 Global. He strikes with intention and his clinch game is solid as well. Erosa is a patient fighter; too patient for his own good. He is capable of sneaking some submissions from the clinch, but I believe Landwehr is gonna kill his morale with some solid strikes and no skewing Erosa ground game obsolete. I take Landwehr with confidence, first round KO

I've got Blaydes, but I'm rooting for the Beast. Stamina could be an issue for Lewis, though: his balls get hot.

Personally I see this as, Curtis Blaydes being an easy one. Granted Derrick Lewis can be unpredictable at times. Blaydes is just overall a much more rounded fighter than Lewis. When Blaydes takes this fight to the ground it will be over, and he will take it to the ground. Curtis Blaydes averages 7 takedowns per a fight. Lewis is like a fish out of water when he is on the ground, even though I have noticed the improvement over the years.

@RangerJW what do you think of Dobson vs Oneill fight
From the intel that I have gathered till now I see dobson with a higher level of striking compared to O neill, if you watch O neil last fight her striking has improved a lot compared to her other fights that have been only months ago, but still Dobson has an edge on the standing part. When comes about going grappling it`s clear that O neil it`s way more better, to be honest I had doubts about O neil grappling skills because if you watch her oponents you can clearly see that she is bigger then them and I thought she is controling them with force, that untill I saw O neill vs Kristy Obst fight in wich she did a flyng triangle in round 2 minute 0:50, now if I watch dobson grappling skills there are none with 0% take down defence, of course all of the takedowns were made by tought oponents such as Sabina Mazo and Lauren Muller
My question is: Where do you think the fight is going to be, ground (will O neil have the ground control to keep Dobson down, because if they get up, I don`t have to tell you who`s going to win, you already know) or on the feet because dobson will tko her or she will get up every time when she will be put down and strike to win the fight

So many jiu jitsu artists on this card.  How many submissions do you think will happen?

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