UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

[quote]So how does Burns beat Usman?  Run out & try a sub round 1?

Thoughts? [/quote]


I wish we could quote directly on this site. Eh, whaddya want for nothin'?


Going for the sub is the obvious tactic for Burns. Usman is a pressure guy who's likely going to control Burns, probably by pushing him against the cage or taking him down. This is going to give Burns access to him all through the fight. If Usman gives up an arm or a leg on the ground, or allows Burns to pull guard in those clinches, that could be the fight right there. Usman's control tactics, usually the safer route, could backfire against a guy like Burns.


Alternatively, Usman could anticipate this and come out like he did against Covington and keep it on the feet. This could open up a whole new fight since Burns has knockout power - but probably isn't expecting a striking match against Usman.


So, it could be a tactical (i.e., boring to the casuals) fight with Usman clinching and pounding while Burns tries to look for a submission. Or it could be a hell of a fight if Usman decides to open it up. I do think that Marty will be able to dictate where this thing goes - but Burns is dangerous either way. Looking forward to it.


FWIW, I was born in Kearney and my parents both went to UNK, so I'm on the Marty bandwagon - but my last name is actually Burns. I'd be a little shocked if we were related, but hey.

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 1:02 PM ET *

FWIW:

https://www.tapology.com/ue/73379-2165790.png

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 1:09 PM ET *

Burns out strikes usman until he is labored and hurt.
All the clinch/grapple exchanges Usman is known for won't be effective against the most advanced jiu jitsu grappler that he has fought.
The pace of the fight, the over exertion of usman muscles, and the pain Burns delivers.
That's how burns wins this fight. It will be either TKO or Submission.

I also think Khamzat rag dolls Leon Edwards incessantly.
it will look like a toddler who has a new favorite  toy. 
And all he wants to do is throw it around in the air until it breaks

Why the Khamzat/Edwards comments on this thread, mate?

Lima will have a definite reach advantage, and that’s something he actually uses well. He usually stays moving on the outside to establish a range that makes him comfortable. Once he’s there, he’s pretty conservative and uses jab feints and leg kicks to set up the big right hand. He sets a pretty consistent pace when he dictates the range and has pretty good takedown defense for opponents looking to mash him against the fence. However, he typically has low output and strike accuracy, meaning that when he dictates the range and pace of a fight, his opponents look amateurish. Muhammad sets a higher pace with pressure and big shots and has shown that he can get inside rangy outside fighters (à la Curtis Millender and Tim Means). He’s also faster and more explosive than Court McGee who had some success getting inside and frustrating Lima. I think Lima will be able to stop and reverse Muhammad’s takedown/fence pressure attempts, but his tendency to reset in the middle and insist on setting a conservative pace will give Muhammad the chance to walk him down. Muhammad also took Geoff Neal the distance, which means he has cardio and a chin (he also wins by decision most of the time, so he’s always ready for the long-haul), and I don’t really see Lima as the guy to stop Belal’s win streak. Muhammad by yet another dec.

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, TKO, R3
Something in my gut tells me that Barber is one of those fighters who loses for the first time and then evolves.

Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Ian Heinisch, DEC
I think this will be a standup war, both guys too tough to be finished by the other, and Heinisch will be slightly more active and accurate.

Munhoz vs. Rivera II
Jimmie Rivera, DEC
Munhoz usually loses by decision and Rivera almost always wins by decision. I dunno what else to pick

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Julian Marquez, SUB, R2
I can't have faith in Pitolo, which is a shame because his nickname is awesome.

Green vs. Rowe
Philip Rowe, TKO, R2
I think a size and athleticism advantage will beat an experience and technical advantage in this fight, but I am not surprised the odds are even.

Robertson vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, TKO, R2
The pink hair is to hide the blood.

@fisty. Nah i wouldnt treat anyone any different, autism and personality are 2 different things. Although you can be hyper agressive and hyperactive from it. The spectrum is so big anyway almost everyone has a little bit of it. But the way someone acts is still a choice, but often the way they project themselves is many times misunderstood.

For what it's worth, Usman changed camps for this fight saying it was inevitable and that he was eventually going to change anyway. Burns' head coach, Henri Hooft, said he wasn't going to corner him for this fight because of a conflict of interest, and Burns said it was a bit strange. Who knows what that does for each of them mentally, but gaining Trevor Wittman seems like the better deal compared to losing Henri Hooft IMO.

Well ****.

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 2:14 PM ET *

Nebraska natives in the chat. Midwest MMA is on the come up y'all in case you haven't heard.

EDIT: I tried to link the comment and it failed. But basically @Fisty said, since they've been training together and they both "know" they are gonna win, you know?


I think this is it exactly. I've been on both sides of this coin where I've trained with people I've fought and fought people I've trained with. You always think that, and they always think it too, it's just part of being a knuckle dragging fighter. But who you get in the gym and who you get in the cage are very different people, so one of those two is gonna be surprised come Saturday.

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 2:24 PM ET *

that's exactly what I meant, I just worded it poorly haha. I think you're right that one of them is going to be surprised on Saturday, and I can't wait to find out who.

Robertson vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Here we learn if Maverick can stop a takedown. I haven't stooped to watching Maverick's Invicta fights, but she looked good in her UFC debut, so I'm picking her just because it seems like Robertson is destined to break my heart over and over again. Robertson doesn't seem very "strong and athletic" and seems lost when she can't get the takedown (similar to Demian Maia and Frankie Edgar).

@Fisty and @Tieoken, I honestly think Burns will be surprised by how dominant Usman will be from every position. The fighter you are in competition is not the same as the one you are in the gym. Even though they've trained together, they've probably never felt each other going 100%, and I think Usman's 100% will likely be too difficult to overcome. 

Julian Marquez tapology pic is very misleading lol

Burns has looked really good lately. He has super explosive hands with really good head movement to set up dip-counters. He also has a good clinch and good takedowns, and he looks like a guy who is familiar with film (the way he anticipated Woodley’s movements suggests that he studied him extensively before the fight). He’ll have similar familiarity going against Usman since they trained together for so long. The thing is, Usman changed camps, and with Trevor Wittman, I think he’ll bring something fresh to the cage that’ll throw Burns’ game. Usman typically comes in with his hands high to protect against explosive punches, and he keeps a low base so that any big punches from his opponents leave them open to be taken down. He keeps great head position once he gets a hold of his opponents, and he’s used it to nullify good jiu jitsu in the past. Against Covington, Usman was way more likely to engage at range, and he showed some good stand up in that fight. But against Burns, it’s difficult for me to feel confident that he’ll take that strategy. I think Burns has more explosive power than Covington, which makes him more dangerous. If Usman feels that way, he’ll likely want to use his wrestling to pin Burns against the fence and beat him up the way he did against Maia. I don’t think Burns will have an answer for that pressure. I think Burns’ best chance is to catch Usman with those explosive punches as he’s getting inside, but like I said, Usman keeps his hands high. At this point in his career, Usman is a machine, and with Trevor Wittman in his corner, it’s tough to see him losing, even against a beast in Gilbert Burns. Usman by dec.

Wow this $60 portion of this card has gotten terrible,This card is a ESPN+ card  Usman fight can't carry card from an excitement point of view because he has tons of boring fight, And unless Burns does a cool finish early  he probley gasses out and expext a 25 minute dry hump clinic 

Maycee Barber vs  Alexa Grasso, Kelvin Gastulum vs Ian Henich and Jullian Marquez vs Maki Pitalo are good fights, Non of them really mean anything, so I don't really care that much and help makes the card fell like a fight night card . But atlest they could be fun so It better then UFC 245 with anti fun fights like Valintina Shevshinko vs Jenifer Maia, Chook vs Calvilo and Shogun vs Craig, Mike Perry vs Mean being the only entertaing thing on that card

And they 100% taking the piss putting Viana vs Martin on the main card of a PPV TBH, If they put Benny vs CDF on this card, I probley won't skip the card. Anyone buying this card is a UFC shill, The card the week before and after are better cards and they are free, Dana should stop *****ing about PPV being stream while making garbage PPV

* Edited at 02.09.2021, 6:45 PM ET *

# 2 is out ladies & gents if ur interested

lol, Julian Marquez does look like the hulk in his pic, doesn't he? More accurate: