UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Usman vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R4
I have a weird feeling Gilbert will get an upset this fight, but lose the rematch

checklefthook Probably you are right! 👍 


Joke :
Masvidal voice :
Maybe! Maybe not! 

Could turn out to be a interesting fight.

Is it that unreasonable to assume that Burns has better striking that Usman?

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, DEC
I'm not certain picking either fighter but I am fairly certain that it will go the distance.

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, TKO, R2
Maycee Barber has some impressive KO's on her record and KO's are fairly rare for women's fights so I'm hoping that we'll see another KO from her.

Tried to do the normal embed but the image refuses to update, so let's just do it like this. If any of my pick seems weird, you can ask me for an explanation if you want.

* Edited at 02.08.2021, 4:42 AM ET *

Just a very hard fight to predict in general. Usman has appeared pretty unstoppable for a lot of his fights. So why Burns? I think Burns on paper is the best possible matchup against Usman at the moment in this weight class, so if he can't win, it's gonna be hard for me to pick anyone else against Usman. Usman likes to wrestle when he's in a tight spot and against Burns wrestling is a very risky move to take, it can easily fire back on him. Burns can 100% keep up and exceed Usman in that department.

I also find it interesting that Usman left the gym, while Burns is the one they're helping to prep for the fight. Typically gyms will make the challenger leave and champion stays, so I think this shows a level of confidence in Burns from the gym and they were the only ones who know how the sparring sessions between the two went.

Other than that I just like the general striking/grappling/fight iq of Gilbert Burns and hes a sizable underdog so he's a good pick for an underdog bet. I can also see Usman winning this too, this is not nearly one of my more confident picks. 

* Edited at 02.08.2021, 7:17 AM ET *

duster 
This my personal opinion:

• More likeble in the pablic 
• More speed 
• More explosion 
• Strong enough
• Better BJJ
• I like to saport underdogs 
• These criteria are enough for me to choose him, knowing that i may lose a few points, I do not care so much about it!
• Sometimes the reward of the unexpected is greater than the choice of the reasonable!
• I hope I helped you, and not confused you!
• Sike! 

I can see Burns taking him down and submitting him.  However, I can also see a boring UD for Usman.

With both of their grappling chops, I see this fight being contested mostly on the ground. Technically, Gillian should be the stronger submission artist, but she often gives up position for the sub, which you cannot do against a more wrestling-heavy grappler like Maverick. If Gillian plays this fight from the guard, I think Maverick can prevent the subs and earn the decision win with strikes from the top. If Gillian gets on top, Maverick won’t accept the position like Botelho did and she’ll find a way to reverse it (she did this really well against Pearl Gonzalez). Santos and Barber showed that pressure is Gillian’s worst nightmare, and I think Maverick will capitalize on that. Maverick by dec. 

Usman vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, TKO, R2
Leaving aside the fact that it may be boring or not, Usman's strategy of clinch, foot stomp, takedown and not finish led him to be champion and already have two successful defenses. The pairing is interesting because being teammates Usman and Burns have sparred approximately 200 times at least. It seems to me that on paper Durinho has many possibilities: Usman exposes his neck a lot when he does takedowns so Burns could look for a guillotine, This fight will probably take place standing (to avoid Burns' BJJ credentials) and unlike Sergio Moraes and Colby Covington Burns has good striking technique and considerable KO power. Burns beat fighters like Gunnar Nelson and Tyron Woodley on short notice, imagine what he can do against someone he has trained with for years. Also unlike Kamaru, Burns continued to train face to face with this fight in Sandford MMA (previously known as Hard Knocks and following the base of the Blackzillians gym) the same people who know Usman perfectly, as the current champion has had those same coaches throughout his career. From my point of view a 50-50 fight, but I think Burns can win because of his repertoire of techniques and skills.

@Amettxpc Very good points!

Rowe shows some promise, though he hasn’t really fought good competition until facing Leon Shahbazyan. He stays moving, has a quick right hand, and has good striking offense on the ground. He also shows pretty good composure and ability to recover when he’s in trouble. That said, he keeps his hands low, over-extends on some of his punches, and tends to circle towards his opponents’ strong side (raises some real questions about his fight IQ against more seasoned opponents). He has also started slow against his last two opponents, which would be a bad idea against Green. Green has good pressure from start to finish and switches stances, which means Rowe could potentially be circling towards Green’s strong side at all times. He has a good chin and good combinations and can grapple if he needs to. (He has more sub wins on his record than Rowe, and against better competition, too.) I think Rowe still looks green (no pun intended), and Green’s pressure in the first along with his solid power and tenacity will be enough to get the finish. Green, TKO in the first or second round.

Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum, DEC
Easy win for my man Kelvin to ease back into title contention again

Love your breakdowns man 

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, TKO, R2
Many do not like Barber due to overhype, but Barber has very good striking. Her wrestling talents have not yet been put to the test, but in striking she has good finishing ability. On her side, Grasso is more technical, but most of the good names in her career have beaten her: Felice Herrig, Tatiana Suarez (super beating) and Esparza (questionable result). Barber has a heart which is why she went out to fight 2 rounds with torn ligaments unlike Sean O'Malley (Oh-My-Leg ...) and for that reason I think she can put that extra to beat Grasso.

Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum, DEC
Gastelum in save job mode will play safe to ensure his stay in the UFC. Heinisch has good defensive grappling, but his lack of explosiveness during fights is Gastelum's advantage.

Munhoz vs. Rivera II
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
The first time it was a war, but I think Pedro Munhoz has improved a lot since then. Jimmie Rivera has been on the downside in recent years after the KO loss to Moraes.

Lima vs. Muhammad
Belal Muhammad, DEC
Belal "Remember the Name" Muhammad is several notches above Dhiego Lima and his questionable 3-win streak. I see the typical safe work of Belal although with certain possibilities of finishing late. This is what Dariush was referring to with Direspectful matchmaking, to win this fight Muhammad deserves an opponent like Neil Magny or Demian Maia.

Robertson vs. Maverick
Miranda Maverick, DEC
They are two grapplers and the fight will likely play standing where Maverick has a greater advantage. The fight could also take place on the ground, where Maverick would also have the advantage due to his wrestling.

@RangerJW Thanks for the Support! 
I really like the way you do your breakdown and explain your points. 


The Interesting thing about Usman vs. Burns is to see which of the two fighters can impose his strategy. They both know each other well and must be prepared for different scenarios during the fight.