UFC 295: Procházka vs. Pereira

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

So much could be said about this fight and there is so many BUTs,but the biggest questions are-can Aspinal fight on 2 weeks notice like Overeem did back in 2018 and is it gonna be enough vs today's Pavlovich considering that Pavlovich just destroyed Curtis Blaydes who beat Overeem in the same 2018 year which SHOULD mean that Pavlovich has gotten better since then and if that level of performance is not enough Aspinall has to fight like even higher level fighter for example prime Stipe,DC,Jones,Fedor,Velasques....but how to expect that from Tom considering the competition he has faced so far he is doing great but against nobody really good especially if we compare their fights before ufc ,at least if we saw him vs Blaydes but we couldn't.
The other big question is why Aspinall called Gane for a title eliminator  fight after his win vs Tybura knowing that Pavlovich is already back up fighter for the main event of UFC 295 Jones vs Stipe which eventually got canceled,so was he thinking that Sergei is not worthy enough to fight him or he was trying to avoid him and go for a title shot without to fight him on the way, it's pretty obvious which one was it but we can't be in his mind and prove it but if it was the second one it means he is not confident enough to face Pavlovich which means that he has lost already.
Big fan of both of them no matter who and how wins later they will most likely meet again in the future especially if Tom wins

You could be right about that

Sadykhov vs. Borshchev
Nazim Sadykhov, SUB, R2
Luta perigosíssima. Ambos são legais,

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Diego Lopes, TKO, R2
Ansioso para ver como o Diego se apresentará em face de outro grappler de altíssimo nível.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Uma verdadeira disputa de cinturão!

Erceg vs. Costa
Steve Erceg, DEC
Luta muito bem casada! Ambos se equivalem na luta agarrada e são perigosos na trocação… por um lado, tem-se um atleta muito técnico. E, por outro, um bom grappler muito agressivo na luta em pé.

Gordon vs. Madsen
Mark Madsen, DEC
Curioso para ver como o Jared se comportará nas defesas de queda. Além disso, animado para ver qual o nível de pressão que o Madsen trará no jogo ergométrico. Em pé, melhor para o americano… agora, se o Mark conseguir impor aquele estilo firme de controle no mano a mano, vejo este com a vitória.

Andrade vs. Dern
Mackenzie Dern, SUB, R2
A Jessica lutará em mais um evento neste ano? Uau! Esta será sua quinta luta em 2023… por um lado, excelente! Ritmo alto. Por outro, o que tende a ser muito perigoso, pode ser que ela não tenha dado o tempo necessário à recuperação e ao planejamento para este combate. O que é arriscado de se fazer, ainda mais tendo uma adversária contra a Mackenzie. Se a Dern conseguir encurtar a distância e aplicar a queda, acredito que pode ser que finalize!

Van vs. Borjas
Joshua Van, DEC
Está luta,enfim, acontecerá! Dois bons e jovens atletas que dominaram os circuitos regionais vindo, com tudo, para dar importantes passos na organização. Vejo favoritismo para o Van, mas devemos levar em consideração a imensa experiência e garra do Kevin. Luta dura!

Buzukja vs. Emmers
Jamall Emmers, DEC
O Buzukja mostrou ser um bom e perigoso atleta em sua luta de estreia na organização. Eu o colocaria como favorito em face de vários outros lutadores desta categoria. Mas, nesta luta, vejo um leve favoritismo para o Jamall. Acredito em uma boa e movimentada luta, indo à decisão.

The prelims for this event will also be streamed live on the ESPN MMA YouTube channel.

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, SUB, R3
Submit probably after exhausted Poatan

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Sergei more devastating striking and good takedown defense so Apinal no chance with that, ofc he lost vs Overeem but he is now better fighter a lot and it was soo many years ago. Pavlovich KO 1 round

Andrade vs. Dern
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
Andrade better striking and soo more power than Dern.

This time i've learned my leasson, no more family gatherings on fight day. Going to be alone at home with a few snacks for this one.

The main and co main fight are way to good to have family ruin it for me.

Procházka vs. Pereira
Jiří Procházka, TKO, R2
Jiri doesn't believe in Judges. 25 knockouts.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R1
Impressive Clash between two of the fastest finishers in UFC history. I saw Pavlovich's fights in FNG and in my opinion I feel that people minimize his KO power and think that he is only a First Round KO or Bust Fighter: he shows good cardio, dynamite striking and excellent capacity of check leg kicks in his fights that went to decision in FNG. Tom Aspinall seems to me to be the more complete of the two fighters in the sense that he is a submission threat in addition to having multiple tools in striking, but I think that Pavlovich's striking, especially his good and underrated kicking game, worked hand in hand with Artem Levin (who was Glory Kickboxing & WBC Muay Thai Middleweight champion) as coach will open the space for him to exploit the power of his hands. With the credentials of both fighters, I believe that the fight is even and will not go beyond the first round, but it would be interesting to see that Pavlovich and Aspinall can also perform in the UFC after passing the 3rd Round. Other factors in Pavlovich's favor are having had a full camp in addition to having worked a lot on his Takedown Defense during the camp in addition to having an excellent base of Greco-Roman Wrestling style where he began training from his childhood before moving on to Combat Sambo in teenager ages.

Frevola vs. Saint-Denis
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R2
BSD is up for great things at 155 pounds because he has excellent wrestling/grappling, good muay thai-based striking and great durability. Frevola comes from an upset KO win over Dober, but I think he can't handle BSD's level of pressure and gonna be drowned in the ground. I pick Saint-Denis to win by ground and pound or submission in the second round.

Sabatini vs. Lopes
Pat Sabatini, DEC
I really like Sabatini grappling pedigree beacuse he has all the ground weapons: NCAA Division I level - Folkstyle wrestling base that makes him prioritize positions over submissions, Legit BJJ Black Belt level regarding submission knowledge, and good ground and pound based in his Combat Sambo Experience. Lopes is a Brazilian fighter with a great level of BJJ from bottom position and capable on feet the capitalize on the fact that Sabatini is usually vulnerable in striking by trying to make a lot of level changes. I think it will be a fight very similar to Lopes vs. Evloev where Sabatini will have a lot of control time and Lopes will look to submit with arm-bars, leg locks and triangle chokes from bottom position: Sabatini has shown to have elasticity and tolerance to painful chokes in his fight against Emmers and I think that Sabatini's ability to take advantage of the control time will give him the victory by decision

Rębecki vs. Roberts
Mateusz Rębecki, TKO, R2
I think that Roberts' weight miss was due more to taking the fight on one week short notice than to an unprofessional attitude. Rebecki has the Wild Man Striking and manages a high pace and a lot of pressure, the latter being a constant problem that Roberts has not been able to deal with: I pick Rebecki by TKO in R2.

Van vs. Borjas
Joshua Van, DEC
They seem to be a prospect for flyweight division in the near future, although Rojas is durable and can complicate the fight. Despite Rojas' durability, I see Van winning by UD or a late round stoppage.

Buzukja vs. Emmers
Jamall Emmers, DEC
Despite training in Longo and Weidman MMA and be Sparring Partner of Sterling, Buzukja don't have a good takedown or grappling defense. Emmers is the longer striker and shows decent takedown offense in the pass, I pick him to win by UD based in Emmers' ability to mixing striking and wrestling offense during 3 rounds.

Sabatini will win by DEC due to lopes being on his back too much and being too comfortable on his back. Sabatini will defend all the submissions from the full guard and do some damage to win by a close decision.

Great matchmaking on this card. More then a few fights could go either way. I like the striking and bottom pressure of lopes to steal a win against Sabatini and Frevola is a great dog at the price. I'm also betting fairly heavy on Pereira as well. Jiri has horrible striking defence and it's still very quick for him to be coming back so soon after such a serious shoulder injury.