UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Bautista vs. Cannetti
Mario Bautista, TKO, R2
totally possible guido comes out swinging big and lands, but i'm gonna keep picking against him because his age has to catch up at some point.

Petrino vs. Turkalj
Vitor Petrino, TKO, R2
no idea here. i'll say petrino lands big first and that sets the tone.

Brzeski vs. Williams
Łukasz Brzeski, TKO, R2
i'm gonna take the underdog here, despite the PED failure. brzeski has just shown more volume and has seen stiffer competition i think.

Assunção vs. Grant
Davey Grant, DEC
feel like assuncao is gonna be backpedaling for a significant portion of the fight and i'm not sure i trust him to make his moments shine through to the judges in comparison to davey's explosions.

Dumas vs. Fremd
Sedriques Dumas, TKO, R2
no idea what dumas' ground game looks like, but fremd has spent a significant portion of his octagon time in unfavorable grappling positions so i'll say dumas is ready to do the same, but with gnp?!

Gravely vs. Henry
Tony Gravely, DEC
not sure who has the standup advantage, but i think that tony's wrestling could take over.

Aldrich vs. Lipski
JJ Aldrich, DEC
jj may be too eager to walk forward and may spend too long in the clinches, but i'll say she eventually finds her td's.

Nam vs. Silva
Bruno Silva, DEC
never fun sitting there hoping tyson will pull the trigger so i'll instead say that bruno can find td's and grind out the rounds.

Harris vs. Gooden
Carlston Harris, SUB, R2
respect to gooden for stepping up, but the short notice combined with his muscled physique make me think that he's gonna burst early but then fade and get finished.

Agreed, I leave the unproven guys out of my bets.
I say that and i have big money on Dumas lmao

https://www.tapology.com/ue/95455-3301422.png

That's fire

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Yan, KO/TKO
I'm kind of torn on whether Yan gets the finish but he should style on Mehrab here. I'm the biggest Mehrab fan ever but there's no amount of advice that Aljo can give him that's going to make up for the striking difference in this fight. Small cage could benefit Mehrab but I think once Yan finds his rhythm he's just going to cause way too much damage. I could see Mehrab surviving and seeing a decision because he's super durable but Yan seems out for blood and ready to make a statement.

Volkov vs. Romanov
Volkov, DEC
I was leaning Volkov anyway before I saw Romanov on the scales. It's hard for me to take someone seriously at heavyweight whos experimenting with their fight weight on the fly. I think Aspinall finishing Volkov round 1 is a bad read. Romanov could still get Volkov to the ground with brute strength, but it's definitely not the same scenario. Aspinalls striking is much more of a threat, which is why his takedowns and jiu jitsu are so dangerous. Romanov has a very appropriate nickname, and has found a lot of his previous success basically just fighthing like an ape. This is a rare scenario where I like the MMA math of Volkov>Tybura>Romanov. I'm definitely off the Romanov hype train until further notice and am hoping he proves me wrong, because he's definitely fun to watch. His thinking has to be that he just didn't feel strong enough and thus wasn't able to impose his will enough against Tybura, and I just think that's a bad read. Tybura isn't an easy night at the office and I think Romanov just under-estimated how tiring it is to fight a 15 minute fight at higher elevation in place like Salt Lake City. Key to victory for Volkov will be well timed leg kicks to the body that zaps Romanovs energy. Timing is everything though, because a badly timed kick could mean Romanov catches it and Volkov ends up on his back.

Krylov vs. Spann
Spann, KO/TKO
I'm so over trying to disect this fight. I just don't care at this point because it's not even at LHW. I had Krylov over a 5 round main event but without a weight cut and in the smaller cage I just have a feeling Spann pulls this off. Krylovs health is also a hueg question mark and truthfully why I'm switching my pick. I can't imagine he's doine much training in the last few weeks. On paper, he probably beats Spann 8/10 times. But this fight being at catchweight pretty tells me Krylov isn't 100% healthy yet and that he wasn't even going to attempt to try to get back to 205.

Nurmagomedov vs. Martinez
Nurmagmomedov, SUB
Close skill wise but I think Said is a step ahead in his development and has a considerable advantage if they're doing anything other than kickboxing. I think Said has looked considerably improved since he lost to Barcelos. I especially liked his last performance. That was a back and forth fight that he argueably lost key moments of but kept it out of the judges hands. I think Martinez has a lot of nice skills but is definitely more of a striker and just hasn't faced the same overall quality of competition. A win by Dragon here would be a massive statment, and I just don't see it. Said might not ever be a title challenger, but he should already be a ranked fighter IMO.

Bautista vs. Cannetti
Bautista, SUB
Huge mismatch. Cannetti could maybe make this competitive for a round but he's getting finished here.

Petrino vs. Turkalj
Petrino, KO/TKO
I'm actually going against my initial pick and my traditional line of thinking regarding certain stylistic matchups. Turkalj has a ton of a amateur experience and he has serious grappling skills. His striking is nothing at all to write home about and could keep him in this fight if he mixes it in well. However, I think he's going to the well with it in this fight and he's going to tire himself out against a guy with crazy power and athleticism. Petrino has very little tape and experience in general but I think his win against Antigulov is really impressive. Even though Antigulov was on a bad losing streak, for him to beat somebody that experienced in just his 6th pro fight speaks to how talented he is. I think Turkalj will have success with the grappling early, but will eventually have trouble holding Petrino down. I could see a scenario where Turkalj pretty much dominates round 1 but doesn't have much success in the 2nd round and eventually gets clipped. If Turkalj just lay and prays for 15 and makes this look kinda easy I won't be surprised, but I think Petrinos power and athleticism is scary. He seems like somebody who can carry power later into fights, and guys like that are always super dangerous. 

Small sprinke on Dumas by SUB. Staying away from this card otherwise. 

Alright gentlemen the time has finally come. It's fight night. A time where you can safely from the comfort of your homes put aside your quarrelous bickering for a time and sate your restless natures with the blood of combat athletes.

* Edited at 03.11.2023, 12:48 PM ET *

I should switch back my pick to Dumas. Everyone is absolutely sure on Dumas and it's not like I'm high on Fremd. I just hate that the line is where it's at. What the **** has Dumas ever done to prove that he's a great fighter?

He subbed Penaz in under a minute. That was pretty impressive 

I just watched the moraes fight for merab. Man, he is just gonna be eating Yan’s left hook for breakfast lunch and dinner. 

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Petr Yan, TKO, R4
Think Yan will find every possible way to get a finish cos of how he's been ****** up with bad judging.

Volkov vs. Romanov
Alexandr Romanov, SUB, R2
Romanov gotta take down and just dominate.. Volkov not so good with take down defense.

Krylov vs. Spann
Ryan Spann, TKO, R1
Spann by 1st round ko.. It's a hit or miss

Assunção vs. Grant
Davey Grant, TKO, R2
Both gotta retire

Let's go Lipski !!!

Damn is Lipski working on her core strength? good luck !!

Harris vs. Gooden
Carlston Harris, TKO, R2
Interesting that Jared got the call back to the UFC! He does seem like a ufc talent, even if at a lower level.

A few on this card are tough to call, especially Volkov vs Romanov for me. Total striker vs grappler, if Volkov can stay out of real bad positions in the first round I think he can stay at distance and crush Romanov with his jab. But he could also get bullied in the first round. I picked Volkov just because I like his style.

Aldrich vs. Lipski
I am obsessed with JJ Aldrich at -360. She has a radioactive spinning back fist and a twisted chin. Aldrich isn't about to deny the rival.

Nam vs. Silva
I am all about Bruno Silva at -205. He has a trendy scissors sweep and an eccentric palm block. Silva will likely kiss the foe.

Harris vs. Gooden
I believe in Carlston Harris at -305. He has a maladapted stutter step. Harris ought to toss the Octagon.

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
I am all about Petr Yan at -275. He has a yappy armbar. Yan could vaporize the counteragent.

Assunção vs. Grant
I am enamored with Davey Grant at -140. He has an ironic kneebar and a ultimate character. Grant can capture the foe.

Gravely vs. Henry
I have got Victor Henry at -145. He has a decent stamina and a maladapted tai otoshi. Henry can undermine the dark horse.

Dumas vs. Fremd
I appoint Sedriques Dumas at -220. He has a reliable gogoplata and a leaden knife hand block. Dumas can grapple the opposing forces.

Brzeski vs. Williams
I am loyal to Karl Williams at -250. He has a hedonistic high kick. Williams is about to fuel the victory.

Bautista vs. Cannetti
I feel disposed to Mario Bautista at -1000. He has a genuine clinch and a gifted gogoplata. Bautista shall yank the Octagon.

Krylov vs. Spann
I am all over Nikita Krylov at -170. He has an ironic kouchi gari and a brackish sprawl. Krylov could blast the opposing forces. Clearly!

Nurmagomedov vs. Martinez
I elect Said Nurmagomedov at -230. He has a quixotic gogoplata. Nurmagomedov must deny the dark horse.

Volkov vs. Romanov
I am enamored with Alexandr Romanov at -155. He has a priceless bicycle kick and a zen spinning back elbow. Romanov might incorporate the achievement. Fix und fertig!