UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Fremd is trash..the ufc knows what they are doing here..and yeah I’m going big on volkov can’t believe some people are still on the Romanov hype the guy has like 6 minutes of cardio if he doesn’t stop volkov which is not easy to do volkov will break him down and stop him. 

He was able to catch Martinez don’t see why he can’t catch assunsao..think davey sleeps him early

Omar I see Grant absolutely smoking Assuncao 

Romanov is going to destroy Volkov. I wouldn't make that bet if I was you

Will see later rah 

* Edited at 03.11.2023, 7:05 AM ET *

romanov looks so overweight right now compared to his las outing against Tybura. Look at the tape he weighed in at 239.5 last fight and 264.5 this fight. I was listening to everyone get a hard on for Romanov but man that's a big change in weight and his cardio would surely get considerably worse.

If Romanov doesn't sub or ko in r1 then volkov is closing shop on this one

* Edited at 03.11.2023, 7:18 AM ET *

You dont need that much cardio to lay on such a long striker. Even if he doesnt go for finish, Romanov wrestling is pretty good. Also must be a reason for that weight increase. May exactly be because he plans to lay on him. Either way. If i was sure i wouldnt be here questioning it. Seems like a very clear path to victory. I dont see that much resistance on it either. Almost too good to be true kinda thing. Volkov is a good striker. But he gettin old. And he aint too dynamic or creative or a ko artist in no way. 

I'm not going to write about all of them, but any questions just ask.

couple things ill say is 50/50 on Spann vs Krylov, leaning Spann with no confidence. avoiding betting, just going to enjoy this fight.

Martinez vs Said is going to be a very close match in my opinion, Both of this guys are fight at range really well, both mainly using leg kicks. This is where I imagine the fight would take place, both men fighting at range coming in and out of range, using their leg kicks to establish distance. close technical battle. I like the improvements from Martinez and I'll be taken a shot on Martinez here. I must admit Said is probably the better side to take here as shown in level of competition but I really think Martinez is a dark horse. 




my favourite parlay I'm playing for this card is this one

Mario Bautista- tko/sub
Sedriques Dumas- money line
Davey Grant- money line 
Vitor Petrino- round 1/2
Alexandr Romanov- tko/sub
Petr Yan- tko/dec

* Edited at 03.11.2023, 9:27 AM ET *

Also how does everyone feel about gravely being slight underdog? I see value there, guy has been really good before last loss.

I'm actually taking Gravely who is , in my opinion , the better and more sculpted fighter. 

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Petr Yan, TKO, R2
I think it takes Yan a lot less time than people believe. He spends the first 5-7 minutes doing very little, but once he even starts to go he will absolutely pick apart Merab.... if it's standing.

Volkov vs. Romanov
Alexandr Romanov, SUB, R1
You know this is a way harder pick to make than what I've been reading from people. It's not just Romanov early or Volkov late, it's a matter of how invested Volkov is at this point and is Romanov stilling gaining in his skills. Honestly, the level of opponent Volkov is losing to could humiliate Romanov, but we still have yet to see Volkov have a win against any kind of formidable grappler. Tough as **** pick, toughest on the card IMO.

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, SUB, R2
Very much dislike Spann. No idea who wins this, new "I train now" Spann looked good in his last fight, but the opponent and what I saw wasn't enough to make me trust him.

Nurmagomedov vs. Martinez
Said Nurmagomedov, DEC
Other than leg kicks Martinez is actually very middling in all the other ranges I see. I just have seen Said eat leg kicks, that's my only flag I have here. Take a shot for every spinning technique and pass out before the fights over.

Bautista vs. Cannetti
Mario Bautista, DEC
Guido is just an upset king, but I think his train ends here.

Petrino vs. Turkalj
Vitor Petrino, TKO, R1
Another challenging fight in a sense because I haven't seen Petrino's TDD tested against a repeat shooter like Anton. Could go either way, but we'll learn a lot about both fighters here. Good early prospect spot.

Brzeski vs. Williams
Karl Williams, TKO, R3
Wild punches with some slick fit ins and I think WIlliams gets it to the mat o 2.5 TDS.

Assunção vs. Grant
Raphael Assunção, DEC
Two ultravets. Davey Grant definitely has more tread left on the tires it seems. But Assuncao is still technically superior than a lot of people at Bantamweight, he just doesn't have the speed to keep it going against very quick people. Grant has a lot of attributes, but speed isn't one of them in my eyes. I'll take Assuncao to win a boring decision.

Dumas vs. Fremd
Josh Fremd, TKO, R1
Fremd is actually so solid. But he's put together two horrible performances. This pick is me knowing nothing about Dumas and just hoping Fremd can get on the right track, because I do believe he deserves to be in the UFC.

Gravely vs. Henry
Tony Gravely, DEC
The combined fights number man. Gravely has his glaring issues (neck and 3rd round cardio). But Victor Henry is very inconsistent. Henry could win by a sub in any round or by decision, so this is a risky pick. But I'll go with Gravely to grind it out.

Nam vs. Silva
Bruno Silva, SUB, R3
Probably going to be one of the funner fights on the card. Excited to catch this one.

Brzeski vs. Williams
Williams, DEC
Extremely low convidence here as usual with low level heavyweight fights. Williams just has a pretty clear lay and pray path to victory here. Brzeski is probably the better striker but not by much. Williams is decent enough at striking that I think he'll be able to implement his game plan. I wasn't really super impressed with Brzeski in his fight with Buday but he did make it competitive. His striking defense is just really bad. My only slight hesitation is the fact that I don't think Williams is a heavyweight. He's a very blown up LHW but his solid grappling gives him a great base skillset for MMA. He will run into problems eventually against much better opponents but I think he grinds out a hard fought victory here. Brzeski is definitely going to make him work for it.

Assuncao vs. Grant
Grant, KO/TKO
Skill for skill Assuncao is better but Davey Grant can ******* crack. I might eat crow here but I don't think it's a coincidence it finally took fighting someone like Victor Henry for Assuncao to get his first win in 4 years. Grant throws great volume for someone whos 37 and has a steel chin. Unless Assuncao comes with a wrestling heavy game plan I don't see this ending well. Grant loves to throw tons of hooks and Assuncao loves to get dropped by them.

Dumas vs. Fremd
Dumas, SUB
I don't care how competent you look against a borderline ranked fighter like Fluffy Hernandez on short notice, getting subbed by Tresean Gore tells me you're not ready to be in the UFC.

Gravely vs. Henry
Henry, DEC
Split decision. Gravely will have success with the takedowns but will eventually gas. Henry keeps himself in the fight throwing up sub attempts and for the most part getting right back to his feet. Great matchmaking.

Aldrich vs. Lipski
Aldrich, DEC
UFC throwing Aldrich a bone after a good, honest (but holy **** you're way out matched here) effort against Blanchfield. Low level WMMA but Aldrich should have this in the bag. Her boxing is decent and she's got a good all around skillset. I honestly thought Likpski was cut awhile ago. I don't know how anyone could pick her with any confidence when shes 3-5 in the promotion. Outside of a wild first round submission that she only locks up 1/10 tries she has no shot here. Aldrich has a remarkably better resume at 7-4, with two of those losses being against ranked fighters.

Nam vs. Silva
Silva, DEC
Long layoff for Silva so don't know what to expect but he has more tools to get this done. Nam is 100% live because despite being 39 he's still got absolutely sick hand speed (which is typically why lighter guys just move up as they get older) and tons of experience. I'm also remembering Nam just must have some sick genes because he weighed in like +140lbs on fight day against Ode. I think he'll have to put Silva away though to get a win here, which could happen due to the layoff but I just don't see it. Silva is scrappy as hell.

Harris vs. Gooden
Harris, SUB
Two guys that aren't in the same stratosphere. 

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Petr Yan, DEC
Damnit, this sucks. Really like Merab, not his fault for the Aldo pairing but it seems like the UFC are trying to appease the MMA gods for that horrendous matchmaking decision by sacrificing him here and I hope they repay this blatant attempt at suckuppery by having Merab land a 1st rd spinning backfist KO

😆 destroying the fridge 

Yan vs. Dvalishvili
Merab Dvalishvili, DEC
merab completely shut down aldo's offense even without being able to take him down, i don't think yan's tdd is going to be as sturdy. maybe we'll see another dq.

Volkov vs. Romanov
Alexander Volkov, DEC
tough call because both guys seem to have a certain advantage over each other. question will just be how often romanov can take volkov down, i'll say he can't find his way inside early enough in each round.

Krylov vs. Spann
Nikita Krylov, SUB, R3
stickin with original pick, feel like krylov's pressure will make spann gas.

Nurmagomedov vs. Martinez
Said Nurmagomedov, DEC
part of me wants to say martinez

No way for me that Romanov will smash Volkov in the very first round. Aspinall was able to submit Volkov in the first, but he is quicker, more athletic and he has better BJJ. Tybura has a decent wrestling + BJJ black belt and he tried 16 times to take Volkov down, but failed each time. Romanov has better skills than Tybura tho he lost to him, but he is built exactly like Tybura and Volkov was training mostly wrestling after his last fight which was almost a year ago. Also Romanov should fight more wisely after he completely gassed himself trying to finish the fight in the first round. I think this fight will be long and boring, probably 29-28 UD for Volkov.

You’re going 0/4 on those bud. Yan and Spann by a mile. You think Krylov has been training through the flu? Fighting at a catchweight? Spann ain’t gassing. Yan made it public he’s bringing a shiv with him so that’s wrong too. Nurmaggy by sub, and Romanov KO.