UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

So first of all, lets look at what Marlon's goals are in this fight. Hes 1-4 in his last 5 and realistically 0-5 if you watch the Aldo fight. Marlon is not in a good place with the UFC right now. He doesn't need a performance bonus, he doesn't need a cool win the get back in the top 5, he needs a WIN. If he can't get a win, his second priority is to NOT GET KOED. I think his performance will reflect that. Hes already low volume and is more focused on putting power into the punch. He's also got pretty good and underrated takedowns so i can see him going for those when he can to win minutes and catch his breath on top. Hes got good movement never really see him backed into a corner hes always aware of his octagon placement. 

Song on the other hand also hits hard but i would say not as hard. He also is very boxing focused he doesnt throw a lot of kicks. Good volume, but plods forward and chooses his shots while keeping a very strike defensive mind. He is young and most likely always improving. One improvement i noticed in his last 2 is he is much better at his movement particularly with going in and out of range before he would kinda be in range after throwing a combo and end up the last one hit. One thing is he doesn't have is good take down defense, gets up well, but he seems to be so focused on the striking defense he allows people to get to his legs. But he trains as Alpha Male so his wrestling only going to improve. 

I'm not going to be contrarian with the pick, I think Song Yadong wins the fight. Where i will be contrarian however, is the total. I think this goes to a decision. Song by Decision. I think it looks a lot like the Aldo fight but the right decision is made this time. Song is not QUITE the caliber of the people finishing Marlon, and usually doesn't fight overaggressive. Also, Marlon probably hits with more power than Song has faced which will make him more tentative for going in for the kill, in a few moments he inevitably hurts Marlon. I think Marlon also has a path of recovery through takedowns. And as far as his last 3, Sandhagen KOs him, he turns around and fights font 2 months later. Not a great move after getting knocked out. He learns lesson number 1 if i get knocked out I need some time between fights. Takes 9 months and fights Merab. Looks way better, much better at taking punches, but gets over excited chasing the finish (which i would have not been mad if the ref stopped it there tbh), blows his wad and gets finished. Lesson 2, you're getting older and you cant go all out like that in the first round. So i think the mash of styles and game plans goes over, but with that gameplan Song should be winning minutes. 

So the move here is over 1.5 rounds at slight favorite price tag. I don't mind a shot at GTD its probably going to be like +200, but when the lines are good I will rather play it safe. Its around -140 right now and I think it drops a little with the clear narrative of Marlon cant take a punch in place. Plus most of their UFC finishes and getting finished was later in the second round or close to it. 

* Edited at 03.07.2022, 7:39 PM ET *

I think Cannetti and Muntinho favored to to decision / over is super recency baised, based on Kris being super tough in the Sean fight and the fact everyone expected Mana to run through Guido but he lasted to a decision. Other than those 2 fights (lets just count Sean as going the distance), they both literally only lost by finish besides a TUF exhibition fight for Guido. And thats like 5 for guido and 4 for Kris not just 1 or 2.

Someones probably going to finish someone in that fight. 

Santos vs. Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev, DEC
Don’t expect fire works from this fight

Santos has been fighting so hesitant. It's a matter of time he gets ko'd by a prospect I think Ankalaev might want to make a statement.

I’m feeling an ankalev finish tbh. Maybe later round

Complete tangent but am I the only one here who thinks Moraes beat Aldo?

Yes he just didnt

Trevin Jones   vs.   Javid Basharat 
 
Yeah, not picking Jones here. He isn't good and is always losing until he isn't against gassed fighters with poor SD/TDD/Choke defence. That's not Basharat based on all the tape I've watched. Great cardio, great distance management, great trips, great scrambles, cuts good angles, very good shot selection, very hard to outpoint. I'll be pretty surprised if he doesn't win by decision here.
Basharat, Dec.


JJ Aldrich   vs.   Gillian Robertson
  
My god, this thing has the makings of a terrible WMMA fight. The conditions are all there: Two shuffle-footed grapple***s who throw hands with all the power and intent of your local over 70's osteoporosis charity ring toss club in a friendly match. Thank **** it's only three rounds, however it will probably feel like five by the end of it. Gillian Roberston is the more skilled grappler and choke threat but Aldrich is harder to pull off a finish on than Fisty's mother's face. Sadly, she was both the defensive and offensive wrestling chops to ensure this fight lasts as excruciatingly as long as it possibly can. I'm not sure who's worse on the feet. Regardless, it will look like two wombles pretending to play a game of badminton.


Get your prostate checked. Clean the grease trap. Bath the dog. Check your scalp for ringworm.
But don't watch this fight.


Sabina Mazo   vs.   Miranda Maverick 

Until recently, I thought that pineapples grew on trees, which is the second most ******** thing I've ever believed after credulously entertaining the possibility that she might move up the rankings and ultimately challenge for the belt. At this point I have absolutely no faith in Mrs Potato head at all--and I definitely don't rate her against a strong offensive grappler in Maverick. There are losses and there are comedic tragedies, and getting subbed by Agopova is one of the most irredeemably ******** examples of the latter I can remember. It is like getting killed by a cavy at the pet store. Miranda by whatever she likes. Probably sub or GNP. Doubt it happens on the feet. Sabina quite literally has no chin (where's your chin, Sabina? Did you sell it for Arepas?)
Maverick, sub R1.

* Edited at 03.07.2022, 11:56 PM ET *

Reading ur reasonings its always funny lol

Baldric's breakdown is the second funniest thing I've seen today, second only to some celebrity reading a poem she wrote about how she wished she was Putin's mother so that she could've given him the love he didn't get as a child.

I have no idea what to think of Silva/Pereira. Limited MMA tape on the two moreso Pereira, but he obviously has the prestigious credentials. They both have gotten KOed by people I never heard of on their records. But both look like beasts in the recent and tape you can see. The only exception is Silva being out wrestled by Sanchez before turning up but I think we can agree that's not a threat from Pereira. If anything Silva could have a wrestle/bjj gameplan to not take those big shots. 

I kinda wanna take a stab on over 1.5 it's so rare that's +150. Getting finishes against kinda UFC bums under that doesn't always mean it'll translate to each other. Both from what I've seen can take punches. 

I’ve watched Silva’s tape outside the ufc and he’s got decent wrestling; uses it a lot more than he has thus far in the ufc. His tdd is also a lot better than it would seem. Sanchez, for all his pitfalls, is a pretty good wrestler so I’m not shocked he was able to rag doll silva on the ground. I think he can definitely hang on the feet but I feel like he could easily mix in the wrestling. 

How do people feel about Fletcher? I agree he does leave himself open, but I think he can mix it up and tire Semlesburger out so the ko isnt a huge problem, and really turn it up late almost like Khaos did but wrestling or a lot of clinching early instead. I kind of like the dog here.

* Edited at 03.08.2022, 1:32 AM ET *

Kinda similar to the Javid/Jones fight; fletcher has fought horrendous competition and is also fighting a pretty solid fighter in semi. 

Who are the best wrestlers/grapplers on this card?  

@gliese58i I watched it live but I don't remember who I scored it for. I remember people throwing a ****fit about the decision on this site/ saying it was the worst decision ever doled out, which probably means it was one of those fights that was razor close and could of gone either way and most people picked Aldo.

* Edited at 03.08.2022, 3:02 AM ET *

yh on jj breakdown fistys mothers face got me lol

yh marlon v aldo second round was quite cloe but i cant see how marlon won it, is what it is tho n the worst decision ever was my boy danny roberts vs ramazan emeev lol

Is it worth it to chuck a 5-ver on Sabino Mazo at +245 just because its women MMA and the fights do end up to be close, Also women favourites has been 2-4 over the last few weeks with  M-Rod and Nunes winning just to back my argument.

I can see how Maverick should win, But it women MMA

* Edited at 03.08.2022, 5:16 AM ET *