UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

No locks in sports in 2022. The Bengals are in the Super Bowl and Amanda Nunes is no longer champion. The only "lock" is Izzy. No other outcome would surprise me Sunday morning than if Izzy lost. Other than that it's to the fight gods.  Izzy/Lewis/Brunson +417 is very plausible.

Yeah that's very true lol, but yes I like Brunson too as a dog

Nasrat Haqparast   vs.   Bobby Green  


I don't think this fight is as much of a dead cert for Green as many people think for two reasons:


a) people are reading too much into the Hooker fight
b) this fight is going to be primarily a boxing match.


The thing about Hooker is that he's a ******* huge for the division, and he was also a short notice replacement for Nasrat. Nasrat was able to catch him a few times and bloody him up despite this and Hooker being a roundly unfavourable matchup for him. Moving on, watch the Fiziev vs Green fight. Whenever it was a boxing match, Fziev was getting the better of the exchanges over two rounds. He had Bobby all ****** up in the second actually, and nearly got the finish but Bobby veteraned his way out of it and came back to win R3. But he only really won that because Fiziev was gassed. And the reason he was gassed was because he'd thrown a bazillion heavy leg kicks in rounds 1 and 2. Nasrat won't be doing that. I also don't rate Green's chance of wrestling him. Even Hooker, a bigger man with better TD's had to work really hard to get him to the mat.

Yes, Nasrat got KTFO by Dober. But Dober could jab a hole in the hull of a submarine and is himself a very competent Boxer. If he catches people, they go to the land of wind and Ghosts.


Here's the question I'll submit for consideration: Is Fiziev a better Boxer than Nasrat? Because I'm not sure he is. He's a roundly better fighter, but I don't rate him as a purely better boxer. If he is, the difference is slight. If this fight does become a pure boxing match, you're looking at very possible scenario where Green gets outboxed over two and possibly KTFO, because Green likes to go second and third, and is mostly a counter puncher low output boxer. Nasrat hits very hard, and Green really likes to shoulder roll in boxing range. He is very good at it, but it's a risky game to play against someone with the power and hand speed of Nasrat.


I'm undecided as to who I'm picking yet. Big fan of Green and will be rooting for him to win either way.

* Edited at 02.09.2022, 12:02 AM ET *

Wt

* Edited at 02.09.2022, 12:56 AM ET *

I don't see Bobby having much success in wrestling with Adesanya besides a few bodylock takedowns with insignificant control time. When I see it play out in my head I see him just finding a way to stifle Adesanya playing points in a slow fight. It sounds crazy but scoring points to win on the scorecards is his best bet here, imo; Adesanya is the better striker and undoubtedly the better point-fighter but if Rob can put him on the backfoot and draw reactions as Romero and Vettori managed to do in bursts, I think he has a good shot at stealing rounds here.

But it's not like I think he's going to win -- logically it should be Israel but as I said, I'm picking with my gut here as I've gone against it in cases like Kattar, Figueiredo, etc. Hopefully I'm not wrong here.

Adesanya vs. Whittaker II
Robert Whittaker, DEC
I think Whittaker has this. Even in the 1st fight he was winning till he got clipped. Expecting a different version, not playing into Adesanya's game and making him forward instead. I think he will get take downs in the middle avoiding the cage and control him on the ground. Romero beat Izzy but not playing his game, I think Whittaker will do it too. And new!

Lewis vs. Tuivasa
Tai Tuivasa, DEC
Taking a risk with this pick. Really like them both but I think Tai is faster and a much improved fighter from who he was before. I think he will control distance, kick Derricks legs and keep away from the power. Technically he is a better fighter and not stupid. Derrick always loses his fights until he wins and Tai could just keep him away long enough to not get KOd.

Cannonier vs. Brunson
Jared Cannonier, TKO, R2
Is Bumson's really that good? Jared will be hard to take down and Bums isn't getting a sub or TKO. Even if he gets Jared down he will gas out and Jared will crack that glass jaw at some point.

Phillips vs. Rojo
Kyler Phillips, SUB, R2
Kyler is levels above Rojo skill wise, though I really like Rojo. Not even close on the ground and I expect KP to have learned his lesson from the last fight and not go beserker and gas himself out. Over 1.5 is a great bet but I see a late submission.

Haqparast vs. Green
Bobby Green, DEC
Close fight but I think Bobby's volume is going to be too much. That said the judges hate him so I am expecting a split that he could lose even though he wins.

Arlovski vs. Vanderaa
Andrei Arlovski, DEC
Again this could be a closer fight than a lot of people are expecting. Vanderaa has good volume on the feet and usually loses to wrestlers. That said I think Arlovski is too mobile and skilled. But his chin does still worry me. Jared could also out point him volume wise. But I will take the veteran.

Modafferi vs. O'Neill
Casey O'Neill, DEC
Can't see Casey finishing Roxanne but can't see her losing either. Unless she gets too aggressive and makes a mistake. Odds are ridiculous but I think Casey will win.

Perez vs. Schnell
Alex Perez, DEC
Again this is going to be a closer fight than the odds suggest. Perez has not beaten anyone that good and Schnell is super dangerous with his boxing and subs. But his chin.... but I think Perez leg kicks him and controls him for 3 rounds. Not certain about this one.

Knight vs. Grishin
Maxim Grishin, DEC
Grishin will be too big and rangy for the short notice Knight. I was impressed by Grishin in the Jacoby fight and I think he will keep Knight at distance or control him in the clinch for a 3 round decision.

Lawrence vs. Martinez
Ronnie Lawrence, DEC
Ronnie is going to keep chaining take downs like a maniac and I think Martinez won't be able to keep the pace, despite reportedly having decent take down defence, I don't think it will be good enough.

Hernandez vs. Moicano
Alexander Hernandez, TKO, R2
I don't think Moicano will be able to get it to the ground with Alex's wrestling and on the feet he will get clipped and get KOd despite being the better striker. Glass chin loses.

Ulberg vs. Cherant
Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R2
I like Cherant but I think Carlos is too good as a striker and will not expend his gas tank this time. I expect a much more controlled demolition and I think Carlos's gas tank is good enough if not unloading all hell in 1 round.

Malkoun vs. Dobson
AJ Dobson, TKO, R1
I think either Malkoun wins a decision or Dobson KOs him R1. I think Malkoun is being over rated because of one fight and I expect Dobson to be the better and faster fighter.

Silva de Andrade vs. Morozov
Sergey Morozov, DEC
Morozo

Wells vs. Mathetha
Jeremiah Wells, SUB, R1
I don't think this will be close.

Got 5 bet so far, staying away form Izzy vs Bobby Knuckles, did not like the line:https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-271-betting-guide

I'm thinking the main event is more even than my early opinion. I think the game plan in a five round fight if it is to try wrestling is lost. So I trust Robert Whittaker's boxing improvements. He has a new boxing trainer. Also since 2019 Robert is improving and looking at his loss vs. Izzy. He seemed intimidated from the dance at Izzy's start. Also say that before this comment for a week I already have Casey as a high bet. But.... As a +350 underdog, it's within reason that Modafferi could be a parlay-buster one last time.

Robert was not winning in the first fight. He never cause damage to Israel

* Edited at 02.09.2022, 8:09 AM ET *

I think that Lewis has it.
Extremely KO power, he needs only one punch.
Tai has a 4 winning streak, and he is definitely a good fighter, with simiral characteristics but he has won Harsy, Hussucker and Sakai.. 
No one of them is a tough fighter, and nowhere near to Lewis.

How is Brunson a bum? He won his last 5 in a row.

How does Roxanne win? No way she takes Casey down and grinds to a decision. 

* Edited at 02.09.2022, 9:59 AM ET *

casey gets big injury or a judges robbery(somehow) 

thats literally the last 2 wins of modeffari

it's very possible that Roxy wins a decision vs O'Neil if she resists the urge to force it to the ground. O'neil's strike is sub par, she was getting pieced up by Dobson. Just mix it up a bit and collect points. That'll at least get you the W on Sal D'Amato's card


Bobby Green would be a lock if any one could trust his level of focus to be at it's peak. There are fights were he looks to barely be there like vs Thiago Moises, then there are fights where he is looking to break Fiziev in the 3rd round or put out Iaquinta in the 1st. Nasrat is a bummy striker, I was saying that before the Hooker fight. He lost a round that was 100% striking to Rafa Garcia who took the fight on a week's notice. He would 1000% lost a fight to Armen.... Bobby Green I'm not so confident

* Edited at 02.09.2022, 10:36 AM ET *

Roxanne did say she wanted to do everything she’s never done in mma before. Roxy by flying calf slicer 

Anyone got any links to footage of Mathetha, I feel like they are trying to trap my man Wells.

They have his lost recent mma fight on fight pass. Pretty much nothing to be found on YouTube except some of his kickboxing stuff

theres him vs a undersized asian dude on youtube. he got a rnc

I'm very confident that Cannonier gets this done. Think Gastelum had a better chance to beat Cannonier than Brunson, because Gastelum has better hands with similar wrestling. This is the 1st MAN that Brunson is facing. No more fish& chip eating, half in shape, always injured guys like Till. If he takes down Cannonier, it will be more resistance on the takedown that it was from Holland, Edmen or Till. I do think it goes to a decision since it's a 3 rounder