UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

im thinking of putting some on oneill and phillips parlay. i believe those 2 are the safest picks

I think rojo has a better chance then people are giving him but Phillips is still a great bet 

Silva de Andrade vs. Morozov
Sergey Morozov, TKO, R2
Both boys are KO artists but Andrade seems a little "slower" when watching the videos side-by-side, and if they intend to bang, I see Sergey leading the battle.

Phillips vs. Rojo
Kyler Phillips, TKO, R2
Kyler rotates KO then decision often. His latest is 2 decisions, so he is overdue for a KO.

Wells vs. Mathetha
Jeremiah Wells, TKO, R1
Blood Diamond last fight was a decision and seems like he has a "looser" striking style from watching the videos which leaves him vulnerable. Wells is 35 and needs to make a run/impact as quickly as possible so you can bet he will be putting in 110%

Morozov shouldn't 'bang' with de Andrade. while he probably can ride out a decision on the feet, he would literally be playing into Andrade's win condition. Douglas poses no threats on the ground, he doesn't have a diverse submission arsenal and sometimes struggles to get up. 

His TD def. is 66% but he hasn't faced a wrestler like Sergey who will chain shots together and continuously engage in grappling exchanges.  This will also help Sergey in the later rounds, when Yan implemented grappling in their fight it really wore on Douglas and he had no answer for it.

Both fighters have a negative strike differential but Douglas throws more volume on the feet than Sergey. If i'm backing Morozov i'm hoping he grapples- which he's shown no sign of disbanding that gameplan

I could see morozov getting ko’ed tbh but he should win this fight pretty easy because of the wrestling 

Adesanya is a fighter who feints a lot and tries to find holes in the opponents that he will use later, the key against such fighters is not to react to feints and not mess with serial combinations but to do potshots and profit on points lists. It does a great level of change and has a large arsenal of weapons. It is flexible in terms of movement, it is dangerous from all directions. It has a great anti-wrestling system, it makes great use of its long hands in clinch, it does that cross face and pull to the side of the overhook, it has great separation in clinch and it's really hard to break it. It has a lot of good scrambles along the wire, so Whittaker should look for takedown in the center of the octagon where it is quite static from the bottom position. Whittaker should work from a distance like I said potshotts and not enter into exchanges and not react to feints. I think it has a well-established entrance and a entry&exit jab that can do 5 rounds with Izzy. You should throw those knee stomps more from the kicking distance. Trying to duck under under the blow and get into single leg because I think double leg is not a smart option considering his hips stand well behind him and he has quite a wide stance. Punch for punch and so can lead to victory, but I think that even so his victory is questionable so Adesanya is in my opinion the favorite in this match.

Adesanya RD2 KO/TKO

* Edited at 02.06.2022, 6:33 PM ET *

Adesanya vs. Whittaker II
Israel Adesanya
You already know Nigeria boy for life 🔥🔥and still

Israel Adesanya   vs.   Robert Whittaker 


I actually know how Whittaker can beat Adesanya.


He needs to keep the fight in boxing distance by never being on the back foot and pressuring izzy so he is always either on the fence or close to it. Go watch the Vettori, Romero, and Gastelum fights. Every time he is in Boxing range and countering outside of space he is vulnerable. If Vettori or Romero had actually pressed their advantage when they had him in this position they'd have beaten him. It is screamingly obvious to me. Izzy is pure death when he has space and the centre of the cage, which is why he's always trying to manouvre the fight to the centre. Anybody who tries to exchange with him there is going to get ****** up badly, and quickly. The only guy who didn't was Yan, due to a huge size and power advantage. He'd just dump him on his ass whenever he found himself in Izzy's wheelhouse.


Whittaker is a far better Boxer than Vettori. If he'd had Izzy backed up that much he'd have put some serious hurt on him. Getting into a kickboxing match with Adesanya is basically like saying 'I hate myself, and I want to die'. That's what Rob did in the first fight. Whenever he clipped Izzy, he'd put the brakes on and allow him to reset in the centre. Big, big mistake. This time around, he needs to not do that. He also doesn't need to try and fish for the waist and try to trip when he has Izzy against the cage. Izzy's hip balance and sprawls are too good, and he will just burn energy for no result. The only time he should be shooting or threatening to shoot is to force Adesanya back into Boxing range. He needs to force Izzy back, keep him crowded, and outbox him. Constantly.  The second Izzy circles out, rinse and repeat. No engagement in kickboxing range. Ever. Nobody is beating Adesanya in that range.


Will Rob do this? Ehhhh. The smart pick is Adesanya. I'm going to pick Rob because he's my favourite fighter. But he should be the dog. Not the huge dog he is, but a dog all the same. I do think Whittaker has a more-than-fair chance of getting the dec.

* Edited at 02.06.2022, 11:28 PM ET *

Excited for this card. I like Cannonier by TKO as the most confident pick.  

* Edited at 02.07.2022, 1:16 AM ET *

Good points, like you I am picking Whittaker and I almost certain that he beats Izzy here.

One thing I'd like to disagree with you on, I think Whittaker does shoot, but unlike all these other fools he does it in the centre of the cage (like Jan) and I don't see Izzy getting up again that whole round.

Also agree with you, Romero had the right idea not to chase Izzy and make him come forward instead. Romero won that fight. And if Romero won that, then Whittaker definitely can.

* Edited at 02.07.2022, 12:21 AM ET *

Adesanya vs. Whittaker 
Adesanya, TKO, R>1
Izzy is cerebral, a technician.  He will systemically dismantle any updates Robert has brought with him, and solve Whittaker 2.0 like he solved Whittaker 1.0.

Lewis vs. Tuivasa 
Tuivasa, TKO, R1 
So close.  Won't blink.  Tuivasa to TKO first due to higher strike rate.

Cannonier vs. Brunson 
Cannonier, TKO, R1 
Cannonier doesn't give Brunson time to execute his wrestling game.  Plus, when you're up against Brunson, you find the best wrestler you can, and you drill TDD in your training camp.  Where do you find an Adesanya to spar with?  You don't, because you can't.

Modafferi vs. O'Neill 
O'Neill, TKO, Rn 
Bye, bye, Roxanne.  Beating Lee and Barber is not nothing, but make way for ladies who can finish.

Aussie Aussie Aussie

I personally believe Rojo has the edge in this matchup.

Think about it: Kyler's style allows him to get into brawls a lot, plushe's more offense-oriented than anything and he's great when he's going, but I think Rojo's toughness will hold up. With Kyler's offense-driven approach I think the body-shots are right there and will catalyze the process of him tiring. Rojo is a live dog here IMO

That’s exactly what I was thinking. Rojo can take an incredible amount of punishment and will be able to match Phillips pace. He looked pretty good against jourdain too and almost made it to decision 

Haqparast and Green are very evenly matched.  It's going to be a fun standup battle.  I think Haqparast is also a live dog.  He has a decent chin even though he was cracked by Drew Dober.  Haqparast's weakness are grapplers, I don't think Green will grapple him in this fight though who knows.  

Lewis vs. Tuivasa
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R1
Violence

They’re desperate to build up kyler giving him a walk through on ppv main card

Cannonier vs. Brunson
Jared Cannonier, DEC
Winner got next

Someone always poops the bed every event.  That fight and Hernandez/Moicano are the two fights I am the least confident in.  On paper, Morozov wins but...woof.