UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

This card is a bit of an enigma. Hopefully everything will be more clear come Saturday.

Martinez vs. Rojo
Fight Does Not Go Distance (+100)

Someone is going down this fight. Take a look at their prior results. Hopefully we can see if Martinez can work into the fighter many people thought he could be. I see him getting a KO or getting plastered by Rojo. 

Lungiambula vs. Barriault
Lungiambula (+135)

I have a simple rule in betting UFC... if plus money is offered on the guy built like a brick ****house, you take it. This could work against me (Knight vs. Jung) but I'm fine losing 1 unit on an underdog that is built like Dalcha is.

Jourdain vs. Erosa, Shore vs. Sholinian, Kim vs. McCann
Jourdain / Shore / McCann ML Parlay (+256)

Expecting to see Jourdain and Shore take care of work so essentially taking a +256 bet on Molly McCann. Some people say this is a "1-800-GAMBLER" situation. I say it's a "grow a pair of balls" situation.

Zawada vs. Morono
Zawada (+120)

Zawada is the larger man and has fought better competition. Choking out a Nurmagomedov goes far in my book... Yes. I know. I can hear the grumbling now. 

"Meh Link Whale, that was against Abubakar. He wasn't fighting Khabib or Islam." It simply does not matter. I'm aware Abubakar is the proverbial runt of the litter, but getting a Dagestani with that kind of innate pedigree to tap out speaks volumes about David. 

Aspinall vs. Spivak
Spivak (+215)

I think this line is way too wide. Both are outstanding athletes and will have tremendous success over the coming years. Had planned to go with whoever was the underdog so this line has been a gift.

PENDING PICKS:

I could use some additional insight on Vendramini/Pimblett, Rountree/Bukauskas, and Brunson/Till. Fire away with your unsolicited picks.

Best of luck everyone! Stay sweet, and never become sour.

-_link_whale

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 2:13 PM ET *

@Link_whale I like your style

I like Brunson, Aspinall, Morono, Martinez for this card.  

I like that fdgtd line on rojo/Martinez +100 seems like a steal. 

I'm also liking round 3 starts (or over 2.5) for ludwick/shore with their wrestle heavy styles and toughness. Only a slight favorite tag like -120. Maybe shore is just levels and levels above and just runs through him but I see ludwick surviving 

@DCpredictions... yes absolutely it is a steal.  Most of Rojo's losses have come by finish and obviously his wins are all by finish as well.  The fight is also the first fight of the card which usually does end in finish (don't quote me on that lol) 

But then again, we saw on the last card... Martinez the finisher could not finish Guido as the first fight on the card so who the hell knows anymore.  

Well that was one sided on who the finish would be from, plus dudes quick KOs all from regionals. Cashing round 2 starts was one of my few winning bets last week. 

But this fight it seems like either guy can get the finish/be finished, which is something I really like to see in unders (not saying that's the only case I'll bet unders, but a big plus imo) and yeah rojos finishes only on lower level too so I'm kinda contradicting myself, but he was looking really good when he fought jourdain. I think I ended up live betting him in that fight

Anyone putting cash on McCann needs an intervention.

@DCpredictions, I feel the same. Both got knocked out in their most recent fight too.  I rewatched the Jourdain fight with Rojo, he took a massive amount of damage in that fight.  His body literally gave up in that 3rd round, he just flopped on the floor from 2 and a half rounds of damage.  

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 3:42 PM ET *

Yeah I had McCann the last two fights and had to watch her get 30-27'd and look like she didn't know how to fight. Even picking her on here might be too dangerous somehow. She'll negatively impact your life one way or another if you think she's got any dimensions whatsoever. She belongs in a TOUGHMAN competition.

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 3:46 PM ET *

Shore vs. Sholinian
Jack Shore, DEC
Why is shore wasted on this nobody

One of the women who beat Mccann is a future title contender who can grapple, and the second was a pretty decent fighter who also is a grappler, ji yeon kim is none of these things,she literally only does one thing every fight she’s in (spam 1,2s) lol

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 5:21 PM ET *

Kim is a solid striker with a ten, TEN, inch reach advantage. Spamming one two's might be enough.

Okay I looked at the stats on the official UFC page for both McCann and Kim.  McCann's best chance of victory in this matchup is utilizing a wrestling heavy gameplan.  Grasso and Shevchenko both landed takedowns on her that helped them win their fights against Kim.  

The question is McCann is going to implement a wrestling heavy gameplan?  If she decides to just stand and bang with Kim for 3 rounds, she will either lose by decision or knockout because Kim has a decent chin on her and she is very active on the feet.

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 6:12 PM ET *

Hopefully this fight finally gets Jack Shore-Nurmagomedov into the rankings, Bantamweight is Stacked but Shore's much better competition then all of the bottom 15. 

@ThaFilthiestCasual He was actually suppose to fight a decent Dagastani prospect that pulled out, then the replacement pulled out. Now we're here. 

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 7:33 PM ET *

Shore vs. Sholinian
Jack Shore, SUB, R2
I like Shore here, Sholinian may have a hard time getting the takedowns, Shore has very good TDD and very good BJJ too. Shore's striking is much better, Sholinian is tough but he walks into strikes so the 1-2 is gonna be there all day for Shore. Maybe Shore can get his own takedowns, it'll be hard but his takedowns are very solid but I can actually see Shore hurting Sholinian on the feet and pulling of a sub from there

Jourdain vs. Erosa
Charles Jourdain, TKO, R2
Whoever wins there's no way this goes the distance.

* Edited at 09.01.2021, 8:29 PM ET *

We've seen Brunson become a 400IQ fighter and actually use his wrestling. Does Darren Till have good takedown defence? I feel like I've missed Till's career completely.

Jourdain vs. Erosa
Julian Erosa, DEC
Ik that Jourdain is gonna win but I gotta root my man Erosa