UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Hippie YEEEW 👍😜

Edit: mistake 

* Edited at 02.11.2021, 2:46 PM ET *

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Not impressed with Burns's fight history, great fighter but matchmaking wise he hasn't beat someone that's anywhere near champion material, Tyron "Shell Shocked" Woodley doesn't count imo

Gastelum vs. Heinisch
Kelvin Gastelum, DEC
Bounce back

Green vs. Miller
Bobby Green, DEC
One of my easiest picks, Bobby defends takedowns impressively and Miller will not be able to stand with Bobby to save his life

Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
Easy

Lima vs. Muhammad
Belal Muhammad, DEC
Easy

It is wild that they both probably know what will happen in this fight. And for Burns to split the gym and go after this fight and camp on the title shot all year cause he doesn't want to miss this chance. It does look like he knows something we don't. When he says he can submit Usman anywhere, it does kinda make me wonder about all that sparring.

While I strongly believe Usman is going to win by decision, I am really intrigued by the co-main event. I feel like it is one of those toss-up fight.

I think Grasso gets it done and ruins another UFC Belle of the Ball. Buckley, Lazzez, Conor, Ribas. its happened 4 out of the 5 cards so far this year and Barber seems to fit that mold perfectly.  

Heinisch has good leg kicks and a big right hand. He also throws his power shots from sneaky angles. Sometimes he rolls when he throws his right hand, making it seem like it’s coming from out of nowhere. He has good cardio and a good chin (took some big shots from Akhmedov) and has good pressure along the fence. So does Gastelum, though. Gastelum does most of his best work on the inside where he throws short but powerful hooks and elbows. He also has good pressure and clinch work and is typically in his opponent’s face from start to finish. Like Heinisch, he has a good clinch and likes to wrap people up along the fence. However, Gastelum is different in that when he disengages his opponents at close range, he throws fast combinations instead of single shots. Heinisch is more of a headhunter, putting all of his power into each punch. He’s also spastic in his movements, which makes him a bit unpredictable, but he leaves his chin exposed since his hands are all over the place. I expect them both to try to push each other back with pressure and leg kicks, and I see a lot of reversals along the cage. I think Kelvin will get the better of these exchanges on the break since he throws tighter punches in bunches. I think Heinisch is a strong competitor, but I don’t think he presents anything that Gastelum hasn’t already seen. And I doubt he's gonna go for heel hooks. Gastelum by dec.

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Expect volume, clinching, maybe a few takedowns mixed in. Burns can win by kncokout early, but think Usman's chin will hold up.

it has been a bad time in general for prospects, the last one to really break through was Adesanya

USMAN - BURNS

If this bout turns out to a clinching clinic!
I will go into the octagon and slap them both!
Hahaha! 

Usman vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, DEC
WAAAAAAR Burns

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, TKO, R3
50/50

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Maki Pitolo, DEC
i feel like the long layoff is going to effect Marquez, that and Pitolo's body strikes i think will slow down Marquez and Pitolo will win

Green vs. Rowe
Philip Rowe, TKO, R1
Close fight leaning Rowe

Yeah, the prospects have been getting crushed recently. Sandhagen is coming back, but every other weight class since the Nigerian trio took over hasn't had a legitimate prospect rise up that I can think of.

Khamzat Chimaev and Kevin Holland are the two 2020 prospects on the rise right now.  Joaquin Buckley had momentum but Alessio knocked that one out.  Zabit Magomedsharipov is still undefeated if he can just stay healthy enough to fight.  Askar Askarov is also undefeated and on the rise so there's a few prospects still in the fold.  

Vieira vs. Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira, SUB, R1
I don’t get this match up at all..

Holland could be a prospect I guess? But at this point he's had so many wins and losses in the UFC that he's not really a prospect anymore. Zabit lost his shine when Kattar drowned him in the third, and IMO he doesn't beat any of the top 5 in a 5 round fight. Askar is looking good so far, that was a close fight with Pantoja, but I believe that Pantoja is one of the absolute best 125ers, so I guess he counts.

Barber vs. Grasso
Maycee Barber, TKO, R3
I'm absurdly confident that Barber will be too much for Grasso, I think she has this fight everywhere except for maybe range 3 striking (jabs and kicks). Barber does have questionable defense if you just focus on her in her fights, but it's not as bad as it seems because she's very much a believer in "The best defense is a good offense" kind of like Benny Dariush or Moreno. I think Grasso gets her rhythm shut down by either takedowns or the heavy shots of Barber. As long as she's healthy the only people I see giving Barber problems are Maia and Andrade. Well and Valentina but that's a given.

Green vs. Miller
Bobby Green, DEC
No way no how does Bobby Green finish Miller, but I don't think Miller picks up a win here considering how evolved Green's submission defense has looked.

Marquez vs. Pitolo
Julian Marquez, TKO, R1
Marquez should be a lock here. I fade Pitolo all the time cause I think despite the bombz he certainly has in his hands he's weak as a whole. But considering that marquez is most likely to trade with him in the pocket early that does make me nervous. Someone is going to sleep for sure.

Lima vs. Muhammad
Belal Muhammad, DEC
I would bet more than 5 takedowns are landed by Beal.

@depmode33 Deinuh Wait : Call big mouth! 

@Tieoken I hope you’re right about Barber. I really do.

I think Guiterrez last fight vs Cody Durdan was a really bad decsion and Is the reason I don't respect most people oppion on judging because  they are as bad as Chris Lee,

how can you give Durdan an 10-8 for lay and pray and just scoring control  in the 1st, While not giving  Guiterez a 10-8 for a knockdown and just ******* him up generally, The 3rd round was more of a 10-8 then the 1st round. . Rooting for Guiterez in this fight because he clearly won that fight an he has a fun style

And Reminder Judging is about Damage and Not Control or volume

* Edited at 02.11.2021, 8:48 PM ET *

Guttierez has better Striking accuracy, Striking defence, Sig Strike #s, Takedown defence, Takedown offense, and better cardio IMO. He should be a huge favorite here.