UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@Damien totally agreed, scored that fight 28-27 for Guttierez 1r and 3r are respective 10-8s

Yeah same I thought they were going to call it for Gutierrez and I think he’s going to win this upcoming fight by doing more damage. I hope he gets another leg kick tko so the judges aren’t needed 

People in this thread talking about Maycee Baber, Chris Gutierrez, and Juilan Marquez are locks...stop it...these are not locks any one of them can lose.

Barber is 22 and green...Gutierrez just lost a split to Cody Durden who is bottom of the barrel...and Julian Marquez has been out for over 2 years and had multiple back surgeries. His back muscle was TORN OFF THE BONE. Viera is definitely not a lock either...he gets tagged EVERY fight and even though his BJJ is off the charts...he's gotta get it to the mat if he doesnt he gets yeemed up on the feet. I'm actually taking Hernandez in this fight.

The only lock on this card is the Nigerian Nightmare Kamaru Usman. Burns has beat an old washed up Damien Maia and a shell shocked "falling in and out of love" Tyron Woodley and half the people here think he's gonna KO Usman. Not gonna happen.

Most of you guys just really hate Usman and Adensanya so you pick against them every time hoping they lose.

I'll agree with you on the Julian Marquez one. But Viera is damn near close to a lock, who is Fluffy KOing? He's a grappler for ****s sake fighting one of the best grapplers in the world. To say that Usman is more of a lock than Viera is kind of wild. And as far as Durden being bottom of the barrel, that's a bit off too. Durden has legit credentials. I'm willing to make a sig bet that Guttierez wins.

Also, yeah I think Usman will win and am picking against him because I hate his style and general attitude, so you also get points for that. But I don't really see people blasting Marquez or Barber as locks, in fact Barber is the underdog lol? You seem like you're just wanting to offer your "hot-take" when in fact most people agree with you.

* Edited at 02.11.2021, 11:54 PM ET *

I highly doubt either of them go for takedowns! Probably a bunch of grappling and clinch work against the fences. Kamaru knows that Gilbert can submit him if he tries to shoot for one and Burns knows that Usman is much too strong to contain him on the mat. Not going to say that it wont ever end up on the ground but if it does I dont think it will be by a traditional takedown. Those two are going to be scrapping and I see it playing out much more like the Covington v Usman fight. 

Lima vs. Muhammad
Belal Muhammad, DEC
I see Bela being the better fighter through being able to spot on Dhiego weakness quicker with his volume cardio pressure and wrestling advantages to lessen the power advantage Dhiego may have over Belal to make it too much for him to loss the fight unlimitedly ntage

Green vs. Miller
Bobby Green, DEC
Bobby has speed, cardio and boxing striking over Jim that i believe will make him break before he can make his pressure be a facto over Bobby

Usman is no lock in this fight, Usman could get slept on the feet because Burns don't hit like a little girl like Colby, And could get submetted if it on the ground because he literlly a jiu jitsu champion, Only chance I give Usman is to hug him for his deer life for 25 minute, it’s a close fight, slightly leaning Usman

Belal the only lock on the card tbh,

* Edited at 02.12.2021, 2:36 AM ET *

Can judges rob Gabe Green? Philip roweon hype

When did I say anything about a hot take? My statements are based on people in this thread saying all of the people I mentioned are locks. People have said Barber and Marquez are locks check back a few pages and you'll see what I mean. Do your research before you start making judgments.

Veira still is not a lock I've watched his fights he eats shots by guys that arent even that great on the feet. Once he faces better guys he's gonna get knocked out. He has no defense. His takedowns are muscled and sloppy. Hernandez gave a bad account of himself in a quick loss to Holland but I think the kid has something to offer. Sure he can get taken down and subbed but I believe he's live.

Usman is the biggest lock on the card more of a lock than a one dimensional BJJ artist who gets yeemed on the feet in every fight.

Yeah they could that’s why he is gonna finish him

Usman vs. Burns
Kamaru Usman, DEC
Ooh look at me I'm Gilbert Burns I espeak espanish.

everyone has an opinion as to how the fight will go when no one really knows for sure. the people that are saying burns cant take usman down are probably right. i think when usman feels burns power striking he'll be the one shooting for a takedown. usman has a heavy top game that doesnt produce much damage or many submissions. all it will take is one tiny mistake and burns will sub him or sweep him and if burns gets on top i see big problems for usman. i really think it close to a 50-50 fight. no way would i lay -275 on usman even if i thought he was going to win. i see a big parlay buster here.

@phillip53 

Plus the "first degree burns" he has speed and explosiveness in his hands, I think this is the highest key in this case!

* Edited at 02.12.2021, 5:54 AM ET *

I think Burns can take Usman down if he surprises him with some strikes and then goes for a takedown.

who is this Usman? Burns will kill him with one hit.

Burns will kill Usman in 1 round. Burns won by decision of such great boys as Kunchenko, Nelson, Woodley. Uthman is not worthy of such great fighters. Therefore, Usman will lose in the 1st or 2nd round

There is no such thing as locks in MMA.  We all know this.  
We can only see who is the most favored by the bookies:

Belal Muhammad -450
Rodolfo Viera -420 
Kamaru Usman -290
Bobby Green -270
Ricky Simon -260
Kelvin Gastelum -235

Those are the biggest favorites of the card.  Which guy has the highest chance of losing?

Belal Muhammed has only been knocked out one time against Vicente Luque who is one of the hardest hitters in the world.  Beyond that, he has lost to Geoff Neal (another great fighter) and Alan Jouban early in his career by decision.  It's highly doubtful that Belal Muhammed loses this one.

Rodolfo Viera is an elite BJJ fighter who is fighting a guy who doesn't have power in his hands and was easily outwrestled and choked out by Markus Perez who was recently cut by the UFC after going on a losing streak.  Hernandez did blitz Markus Perez in his fight and something could land on Vieira but that is doubtful.  It's more likely that Viera will outwrestle Hernandez and choke him out in the 1st.

Kamaru Usman is an elite wrestler with an extremely good chin and decent boxing skills.  Burns will have to fight a perfect fight and have perfect timing in order to beat Usman which again is highly doubtful.  I believe that Usman is the best wrestler he has ever faced.  I could be wrong though.  Burns might win a round or 2 but I believe Usman has this fight by decision because he will play it safe.

Bobby Green is the ultimate sprawl and brawl point fighter.  He is fighting a veteran BJJ guy in Jim Miller.  Now Green did fight another elite BJJ guy in his last fight in Thiago Moises.  Moises surprised a lot of people with his stand up skills in that fight, does Jim Miller have the same standup ability?  I don't think so.  Could Miller tire out Green and eventually submit him in the 2nd or 3rd round?  Never count out a veteran like Miller.  But again, it's highly doubtful.  Green has evolved into a very smart fighter these days who is well aware of what is going on in the cage.

Ricky Simon is another aggressive wrestler similar to Usman where he just never lets go of his opponent.  Now this could be very dangerous because he's fighting a guy in Brian Kelleher who has elite BJJ ability and has somewhat heavy hands as well.   Could Ricky get knocked out like he did the Faber fight?  Absolutely.  Could Kelleher get Ricky in a guillotine choke from a faulty takedown attempt?  Absolutely.  Do I think it will happen?  Highly doubtful.  I think Ricky fights a smart fight and takes the decision.   

Which leads us now to Kelvin Gastelum.  We've seen this many times before where an elite fighter's abilities start degrading.  First, they only lose to elite opponents or current champions and then they start losing to middle of the pack fighters.  I don't really know Ian Heinisch that much or what his strengths or weaknesses are.  Based on the level of competition Kelvin has faced, he should have no problem picking up the win in whatever fashion he wants but who knows?     
 

  

 

* Edited at 02.12.2021, 9:22 AM ET *

What's up everyone!!

We are just 24 hours away from fight day and I for one am so stoked that Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns is finally among us (fingers crossed)

Finally had a good night betting wise last week and I am looking to keep the ball rolling this weekend as well

On this week's The Breakdown we have a star studded cast of fighters:

One Championship's Troy Worthen and UFC contenders Curtis Blaydes and Danny Chavez help me breakdown UFC 258 to make you all a ton of money!

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