UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya

Whittaker vs Adesanya

Whittaker KO/TKO R3.

It's somewhat difficult to envisage how this fight will go, but I believe Whittaker gets Israel out of there within three. Gastelum would have been a tougher fight for Rob than Israel for a few reasons, which I'll discuss.

A) Adesanya is a counterpuncher, not a powerpuncher. An extremely skilled  striker with superb shot selection. It's hard to counterpunche a bodyline strafer like Whittaker, and if you watch the Yoel fights, he tends to get hit when he hangs around inside too long and comes off badly because Yoel IS a powerpuncher. By that I mean he has enormously powerful counters. They're not as fancy or as classy as Israel's, but they land a lot heavier. Secondly the Gastelum fight showed me, more than anything else, that Adesanya is extremely uncomfortable and kind of all at sea if he isn't given space to work. He is actually very porous in close/through the middle, and is too willing to retreat when pressured--which is a bad thing to be against a guy with the cage work of Whittaker. He does hit hard, but he has nothing in his arsenal to equal Yoel's power. He'd basically have to consistently land on Robert to put enough damage on to get the finish. It's a big ask.

B) Adesanya's TDD is still suspect to me, even though officially hs TDD Is 84%. Gastelum isn't a good wrestler, really. His TD accuracy is 41%. Whittaker is a much bigger TD threat than Gastelum. Multiple times when Gastelum had him hurt, he failed to capitalize. Kelvin actually shot fairly terribly the whole fight. That's just not going to be an error Whittaker makes. One of the things he's best at is picking his moments, and he never goes off half ****ed when he has his enemy in trouble. If Israel does find himself on his back, he's in deep, deep **** and will almost certainly get TKO'ed given Whittakers nasty top game and GNP. Every time he throws a kick he's at risk of getting it caught and dumped, or he risks getting bulled into the cage and smashed to bits. He's going to have fight superbly to prevent this from happening; to keep the fight in his space, in the center. A betting man would say he won't be able to do it. It's hard to be perfect.

C) Adesanya gets wobbled. Like, quite a lot. Gastelum actually never landed on him with a big one, yet had him very nearly finished--early in the fight, no less. I don't think Kelvin hits harder than Robert. I do know he's not as accurate and has a shorter reach.Certainly Gastelum is better in the pocket by far, and I think Whittaker might struggle with a guy like that--especially Costa who is easily the worst matchup for him in the division.

D) I don't think Adesanya can outgrit Whittaker, or beat him over five.Israel's cardio looked like dog **** against a smaller guy who barely weighed on him at all. Against Gastelum, he looked just about totally spent after the third, and he's lucky he was fighting a fellow gassed fighter. Whittaker will not gas, and he will not quit. Ever. Adesanya WILL have to finish him to win, and I think his best chance at doing that is over three. This will involve taking risks, and he'll definitely be made to pay when and if they don't bear fruit. Rob is also just an extremely, extremely tough guy to put away.


X-Factors

A) Israel is an extremely good, classy fighter with frankly beautiful slip and switch striking. It's entirely possible that this fight eventuates into a back and forth battle at range, and if it does, Whittaker will lose handily. There is absolutely no point getting into a kickboxing match with Adesanya however and I would be very surprised and disappointed if he did.

B) Adesanya has not looked comfortable in interviews leading up to this fight. I see a lot of false bravado which is never the hallmark of a secure man. He also shat the bed against his idol  Silva. I think he's the kind of fighter who definitely suffers from external pressure. The crowd will be a thing to behold, and it will be going against him in this one. I'm not sure how much of force this will be on him...but it is worth considering, especially since Robert kind of...doesn't seem phased in the slightest and is authentically confident that he''s basically going to beat him to death effortlessly. He'll have the mental edge.

C) Is Whittaker's chin shot after the Yoel wars? How has surgery impacted him? Questions that may be answered soon. He's had quite a bit of R&R, so he's got that going for him.

Prediction: You know, I have a strange feeling that Whittaker might just absolutely merk Israel horribly and make him look like he has no business being in the cage with him. However, I can also see Israel totally outclassing Whittaker and getting an early finish, and I think if that happens it will be through multiple accumulative straight combinations.

The former predilection is stronger than the latter for me however. Whittaker has a lot more ways to win, and logistically, it's going to be much harder for Adesanya to not make mistakes. Compounding this, I'd back Whittaker to survive a hairy situation over Israel 10/10 times.

Whittaker KO/TKO within 3.

* Edited at 09.24.2019, 4:22 AM ET *

@tepid in boxing that's true. Most of the time anyway. MMA is a different deal though. It's still a factor. but nowhere near as significant.