UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Price hasn't looked the same since getting his knees cleaned up. He hasn't won a round and got knocked out by both Rowe and the ghost of Robbie Lawler. Morono is past his prime too, but aside from a flash KO I don't see him losing 

* Edited at 05.22.2024, 4:27 PM ET *

@DevinM34 

You shouldn't say the ghost of Robbie Lawler. Everyone on the roster has 39 seconds of fight in them

@grayerman 

the point is if you're getting flatlined by a 41 year old in 39 seconds I'm not picking you or putting any money on you, especially against a halfway decent fighter like Morono

@DevinM34 

I agree. I think it's funny how much conversation goes into fights in like these. I feel like tapology users love the prelims the most

but also It would have taken Lawler less than 39 seconds to flatline me

* Edited at 05.22.2024, 5:19 PM ET *

@grayerman 

idk about anyone else but I just love talking fights on tapology in general lol not a lot of people in my life are really into UFC or mma so this site and all of you guys are my outlet. I can talk about this **** forever and never get bored of it, and you've got some pretty knowledgeable people on here

Thank you 😊

I think Morono's best paths to victory are sub or decision. Price is generally pretty kill or be killed, so I wouldn't be shocked if he gets KO'd, especially now that he's seemingly on the downside. But the power differential could make this dangerous for Morono if he can't finish Niko.

On the other hand, Niko is the more vulnerable guy on paper, so my pick is still going to be Morono. Like I said, though, if the odds are juicy, I'll throw a sprinkle on his KO line.

Niko's biggest chance is probably catching Morono in an exchange, which I think is possible. Morono isn't a defensive wizard and Price has awkward striking of his own.

@TheFoxyOne 

you got it!

why do you bother with Morono when you got few better picks with same price lol. 

My only bet will probably be Niko. Picking Morono but not betting on him.

* Edited at 05.23.2024, 1:01 AM ET *

Agree, I don’t really care what happen in round 2 in the Blaydes fight, getting 9 takedown on Curtis Blaydes shows he’s a problem that not many heavyweight can beat.

I’m not sold on his striking at all, just think not many people has the skills to stop plan a, I wouldn’t be suprise  if Romanov striking is better, that how lowly I think of his stikingI’m honestly a bit sus on what happen if Romanov stuff the grappling as he is a grappler

* Edited at 05.23.2024, 1:10 AM ET *

how many fights still Dustin has on his contract? I mean if he loses the third time for the belt he's about to retire

FWIW I couldn't bring myself to bet Edwards. Looked at that fight first naturally since WMMA is the most lucrative fights on average for me, being the ones that has the most market errors.
I think the line is wide and she definitely could win this, especially in light of having fought in the Middle East before, she has more experience than Ailin here. It's a big spot for Ailin to show up. I do think Ailin has the right attitude though, she has that winner mentality in my eyes (also some delusions of being an MMA fighter AND a model lol).

I think Edwards is improving physically and also gaining experience with how many fights she's had now but I still haven't seen her TDD really improve. Anyone that tried got her down with ease and when at the bottom she does the cardinal sin of anyone who's not a BJJ wizard to start playing for subs from the bottom instad of getting to her feet, even against a grappler that she's already shown herself to have an advantage against in the standup. I just don't see her as having much fight IQ.

I've bet this kind of spot a lot banking on further improvements and in consideration of wide lines but I after some recent losses I'm tightening up a bit on these plays because I actually want to see the path to victory have already played out in previous matches, not just theorize about there being a good possibility to take place for the first time in the next one, even if I've had success doing so before.

At first I was pretty convinced Brown wins like a 29-28, but with some thinking and some research I might just switch my pick to ZDS.

I’m the opposite, I was on ZDS early and switched to brown after tape 

Makhachev vs. Poirier
Islam Makhachev, SUB, R2
LOCK 1

Lima vs. Raposo
André Lima, DEC
LOCK 2

Lima vs. Raposo
André Lima, TKO, R1
Raposo is cannon fodder here. He's out of his depth.

@AyyLmaonnaise 

Brown should win this  one.. only if he somehow get finished i belive he will lose this

Kopylov vs Almeida
Kopylov KO RD 2

Watching tape made me feel a lot more confident in kopylov. As I said earlier in the week, I think roman is very overrated. Don't get me wrong, his striking is really high level but roman is very beatable. His main flaw of no grappling shouldn't be an issue here, but Cesar has looked very competent on the ground (despite bad tdd) so who knows. If anything, roman should have the wrestling advantage as crazy as it sounds. Kopylov's defense isn't as bad as I remembered but when he does get hit, it draws a noticeable reaction that I don't like. Lastly, (and most concerningly) is his cardio. Roman's cardio actually sucks, he takes super deep breaths almost every time he reaches the halfway mark. Now, he is able to keep his explosively and speed, but it's not a good visual & it makes me wonder if Cesar will up the tempo when he sees this. This fight should be the technical striking fight that kopylov wants tho, so his cardio should hold up. Cesar is definitely a good kickboxer but I don't think hes all hes hyped up to be either. His kicks are mediocre to me but I do find his boxing very impressive. he has natural power and throws very tight combos. However, I really don't like how slow he is; Cesar does not move very well and he looks super slow compared to everyone else. His punches are quick but everything else is slow. Roman on the other hand, is one of the fastest strikers in the division and also throws 7-8 hit combos in succession. Roman also has very good distance control and will move in and out of the pocket very well, while Cesar lacks lateral movement for the most part. Cesar was known for his durability in kickboxing, but I don't think he moves his head very well in mma, and you can't be doing that against kopylov. I think roman can finish him, if he can't this could get interesting because im almost positive roman will slow down badly in round 3. wouldn't be totally shocked by an upset but I am not very high on Almeida

Dawson vs Solecki
Dawson KO RD 3
Dawson is honestly my most confident pick of the card. This is interesting matchmaking because while both are not very exciting, I see them as carbon copies of one another. They are both grapplers, and both share similar flaws (striking defense, cardio) except Dawson is just better everywhere outside of pure bjj. If this was a bjj match, I would pick solecki because hes just craftier and has a very active guard. However, we have seen recently that pure bjj styles just don't work unless you are Amorim or Rodolfo Viera. Solecki too frequently pulls guard & even tho he is good there, he spends way too much time off of his back. If he pulls guard against Dawson, he is just going to get dominated with top control the whole fight. I actually think Dawson might have trouble getting his body triangle on due to soleckis grappling background, but he is a much better wrestler so he should be able to get takedowns easily. I don't see this taking place on the feet very long, but if they do I favor solecki but very slightly; neither can strike very well I just think solecki has better power. The cardio edge is interesting here, Dawson has had cardio issues in the past but he has fixed them for the most part. He has gotten tired since the glenn fight, but he has learned how to push through it & has also improved his grappling cardio. I was very impressed with how he beat jared gordon; we could see the tide turning in round 3, but when Dawson missed that backlist, he immediately started wrestling & didn't give up until he got the back and became the first guy to sub gordon. He was winning the fight but I love that he didn't quit on himself nor did he leave it in the hands of the judges. The reason I bring this up, is because solecki doesn't have good cardio either. It's not as bad as I remembered, but he slows significantly if he faces grappling resistance. I could maybe see a Dawson sub, but I think he is going to wear on solecki and finish him with gnp. The reason Dawson has so many round 3 finishes is because he wears on guys with his style and finishes them late when they are broken; solecki has a track record of slowing down and I think Dawson is really going to wear on him

Rowe vs Matthews
Rowe DEC

How tf do you even pick a winner here? both guys are masters at finding ways to barely win fights & make them closer than they need to be. Rowe is beyond strange to me, he is pretty much a size merchant on the feet. His boxing is clean, but he gets carried hard by his long reach; if he didn't have it he would be trash. even then, Rowe doesn't use his reach very well & is extremely hittable. Funny enough, the most impressive part of Rowe's game is his grappling. He is a black belt & on the few occasions he has used it, it looks very good. He transitions super fast on the mat and is very sneaky with his sub attempts. However, Rowe cannot wrestle to save his life, so it's pretty much useless. Matthews on the other hand, has all the tools but cannot seem to beat anyone of quality. He styles (most of the time) on overmatched opponents, but then ****s the bed against anyone top 30 or higher. I don't really think Rowe qualifies as one, but I can definitely see Matthews fumbling this fight. Originally, I was thinking Matthews would wrestle but after watching his fights, he hasn't came in with a wrestling heavy gameplan since Diego Sanchez. He thinks he is a striker now instead of using all his skills. Matthews striking is pretty clean, but he leaves a lot of openings on defense and cannot function when he has to be the nail. I think he can definitely land on Rowe, but he doesn't throw any calf kicks and doesn't deal with rangy guys very well so I think he is going to have a hard time finding his range. Matthews also struggles a lot when exiting the pocket, and against someone with a freakishly long reach he is going to have a lot of issues. If he wrestles I think he will be able to have success, but I honestly rate Rowe's bjj over Matthews; I think he can find a sweep and get to his feet. IMO Matthews bjj is overrated and as I said earlier, he hardly wrestles anymore. That being said, Rowe has nonexistent fight iq so he may end up initiating grappling exchanges anyways. I feel like either side could finish this fight, and we may very well see a few knockdowns. But both have bad fight iq and I think this is going to go to a greasy split decision. I am going to go with Rowe here because I think physical gifts are going to go a long way here

Price vs Morono II
Morono KO RD 3

This should be a very fun fight. Their first outing was great; morono beat the **** out of price round 1, and was comfortably winning round 2, but then he decided to brawl with price (also due to gassing a little) and got koed at the buzzer. He was the better fighter back then, and I still think he is now. That being said, both of these guys have declined a lot in recent years. Morono has always been a solid vet, held back by his athleticism and durability; literally all his losses are due to his chin failing him or not being a better athlete. His recent stretch of 4 fights has not been great, the skills are still there for the most part but he has noticeably slowed down a little. That being said, he is still fighting a relatively high level of comp so it's not all bad. Price on the other hand, is a shell of himself. Price was never an amazing fighter, but unlike morono, his durability and athleticism is the only reason he has had success. In his "prime" niko would be able to eat punches & give them back, and he was also a very good athlete which bailed him out a lot. However, both of these have started to decline (as well as his speed and cardio). The price of 2024 is a husk of himself; he can still brawl and loves to throw down, but he moves like a slug out there. His cardio also isn't what it used to be either. Even his lone win was a very bad look; he fought an equally washed cowboy oliveria, and even that fight was razor close. If cowboy didn't death gas in the last 30 seconds, there was a very good chance price would've lost that fight. Morono's durability concerns me, but at the same time price's is also declining, while also being a walking target on the feet. Morono has struggled a lot with guys who get in your face & put out volume recently, so I am worried if price makes this ugly he will cause issues. But at the same time, I can't unsee price just walking into big hooks against cowboy. I think he is showing up for paychecks and morono is going to beat that ass. Upset wouldn't totally be out of the question tho

Gall vs Hafez
Hafez KO RD 2

This is a really weird fight. Despite putting up good effort against JDM, I am not impressed with hafez. He has some really good skills, and at times looks like a seriously good fighter, but then you get deep into his regional fights and he shows the exact same flaws he did against jdm. For one, hafez has the worst, yet best bjj ive ever seen. His submission and scrambling game is actually unreal; he has shown some very high level transitions on the ground and can chain submission attempts effortlessly. However, he is terrible at finishing subs (id say fails about 90% of his attempts), can easily be reversed, and is more than content to sit in his guard. His striking is pretty poor imo, but he makes up for it by being super aggressive and also having nutty power. Much like his grappling, his finishing ability is abysmal. He drops or hurts just about everyone he fights but cannot follow up to save his life. Lastly, (and most weird of all) his cardio. Hafez trains at elevation yet has godawful cardio; before you come at me and say it's false, look at any of his fights. He is taking massive breathes of air & has the worst body language literally minutes into the fight, yet he magically recovers (EPO?) and pushes through it despite being exhausted. His fight iq is also really low in general, I feel like he doesn't have a gameplan at all. All this being said, I think he should be able to beat gall. Gall is not much better on the feet and is just as hittable. His chin is also pretty bad, as he has been dropped on numerous occasions. I think the striking will be competitive because both just wildly swing & are hittable, but I favor hafwz because of power and durability. The grappling is interesting, I think hafez is significantly better, but his iq on the mat sucks. Gall is not good, but he is a decent enough black belt that I think he can cause some issues. I really don't like hafez, and wouldn't be shocked if he loses, but no way can I pick mickey gall to win a ufc fight. Although historically speaking, he has always won when ufc gives him non established guys. dog or pass spot imo, hafez shouldn't be -300 over anyone with a pulse; he is 8-4-1 for a reason.

Edwards vs Perez
Edwards DEC

I didn't expect to like Edwards here but after tape I actually think she has a good chance. For one, Perez just shouldn't be a big favorite over anyone; she is very bad. I think the line is what it is because of the wrestling upside, but honestly it's not as big as everyone thinks. Obviously, Perez is a wrestler, but she's not a good one like the stats would have you think. She is fighting girls who can't wrestle at all, so it creates the illusion she can wrestle. Sure, she will spam attempts over and over, but they aren't good shots at all. Conversely, when Perez is the one on her back, she is a fish out of water. I was extremely concerned to see her not only gas out, but willingly pull guard & cruise out the round because she was up. Edwards grappling is very bad, but I do feel that it is improving. She still sucks don't get me wrong, but at least she makes attempts to get up now and even has been using wrestling of her own. I think she would be smart to wrestle here, because whoever gets the first takedown is going to be able to control the other pretty easily, and also set precedent for the rest of the fight. The main reason I am picking Edwards is the standup. Given that these two have beef, I am hoping that we get a standup affair. Not only because it would be entertaining, but because there is a huge striking advantage for Edwards. I don't really like her striking, but it is significantly better than what Perez has to offer; she just wildly flails her arms hoping to hit something, where Edwards can actually box and throws lots of leg kicks. Now, what's most likely to happen is edwatrds gets taken down and sits on her back for 13/14 minutes, but I really don't think Perez should be this big of a favorite; I think the line is biased because of wrestling upside and the Edwards vs pudilova fight (I really thought Edwards won on rewatch -- not as bad of a robbery as people make it out to be). However, Perez struggled a lot on the feet against pudilova, and also gassed really badly & cruised in round 3. I think Edwards is the better fighter, so I am going to pick her

Lima vs Raposo 
Lima DEC 

This should be a really fun fight. Raposo has looked good in his past few fights, but I think people are giving him a little too much credit. Yes, his striking looks very good but he is facing absolutely zero resistance and is fighting really bad fighters. When Mitch is forced to be the hammer, he does not fare very well at all. I also think if he wants to play a technical striking game, it is actually going to hurt him. Lima is a very good technical striker & if you let him find his rhythm, he is going to smoke you. If raposo wants to win, he is going to have to make this an ugly fight, as we saw lima struggled with the pressure of Severino. However, Raposo is not a brawler so he is going to play into lima's game. Mitch may try to wrestle, but I don't see him having a ton of success. Lima's tdd needs work but it is good enough & he clearly knows what hes doing on the ground, along with having very good bjj for a kickboxer. I was originally thinking maybe he finishes raposo, but I feel like this is more likely going to be a dominant decision win for lima. It is possible Mitch will gas tho, this is pretty short notice and he is a big flyweight.