Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

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01.16.2024 | 10:38 PM ET

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UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 04.27.2024 at 04:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN | Prelims: ESPN 2
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: John Gooden, Dominick Cruz, Daniel Cormier
  • Ring Announcer: Joe Martinez / Charly Arnolt
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Daniel Cormier
  • MMA Bouts: 13
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Alex Perez   defeats   Matheus Nicolau   via KO/TKO, Right Hook   2:16 Round 2 of 5, 7:16 Total Bout Page
Bogdan Guskov   defeats   Ryan Spann   via KO/TKO, Ground and Pound   3:16 Round 2 of 3, 8:16 Total Bout Page
Karine Silva   defeats   Ariane Lipski   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Jhonata Diniz   defeats   Austen Lane   via KO/TKO, Left Hook   2:12 Round 2 of 3, 7:12 Total Bout Page
David Onama   defeats   Jonathan Pearce   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Uros Medic   defeats   Tim Means   via KO/TKO, Uppercut   2:09 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Victor Henry   defeats   Rani Yahya   via KO/TKO, Punches (standing TKO)   2:36 Round 3 of 3, 12:36 Total Bout Page
Austin Hubbard   defeats   Michal Figlak   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Don'Tale Mayes   defeats   Caio Machado   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Ketlen Souza   defeats   Marnic Mann   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Chris Padilla   defeats   James Llontop   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   4:33 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Ivana Petrović   defeats   Na Liang   via Submission, Arm Triangle Choke   1:29 Round 3 of 3, 11:29 Total Bout Page
Maheshate Hayisaer   defeats   Gabriel Benítez   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 7

Khutulun19
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04.16.2024 | 6:36 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 4414th

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, DEC
Yahya is a fossil, on the feet he wont throw boxing combinations and instead throw the side kick out there. Everything is set up to get the takedown. Generally he enjoys the single leg and will pull guard when he's losing moments on the feet. Durability is not there anymore. What worries me is I actually think Henry could be autistic enough to go to the ground with Yahya and test his ground game. On the feet Henry will have a big advantage here and could accumulate damage later in the fight with his volume. Henry is not really a round 1 finishes so maybe you play late props.

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, DEC
Watching tape on these two they look very similar fighters. Figlak appears to lack any power on the feet and his wrestling is mainly getting the body lock/cage wrestling. Both fighters switch stance on the feet but exchanges should be 50/50. Haven't seen odds yet but I feel it should be a near pick-em. Hubbard appears to fight to really close margins as his not really a KO threat, doesn't have elite BJJ nor will he rack up 10+ minutes of control time.

Mayes vs. Machado
Caio Machado, DEC
Low level UFC at it's best. Have no take here, Mayes is as slow as molasses on the feet and doesn't really carry a KO threat on the feet. His record consists of wins against grandpa arlovski, Parisian and Roque Martinez so can't be trusted. Machado fights with his hands low and is screaming to be KO'ed. However if this is extended I think it arguably favours Machado. Maybe KO Mayes/Machado Dec could be an option

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, DEC
Picking Souza, don't know too much about her apart from her leg nearly getting snapped in half in her UFC debut. Mann always comes to fight but she has such a limited skill set and is well undersized. Money line may be a bit wide?

Petrović vs. Liang
Na Liang, SUB, R1
Going Liang, why not. She's a menace for about 2.5 minutes before she shuts up shop and quits. Watching tape on Petrovic, she's worse than I thought. The main thing I saw in Petrovic that I didn't like was how bad her striking is, she's very laboured and keeps her head on the centreline. Liang should have the speed advantage, strength advantage and can see her getting a takedown early. I couldn't possibly back her apart from the round 1 submission. My concern is even though Petrovic will lose minutes on the ground, she seems to know what she's doing there and if she can survive she might be live for a round 2 submission. Live Petrovic could be interesting although surely the bookies would be well aware of the stunts Liang has pulled in the past

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO, R2
Should be a pretty violent fight. Can see Moggly pressing forward ad setting up his striking with the leg kick. I don't think he's faced too many orthodox fighters lately which could allow him to chew up the inside leg of Maheshate. But for him to get into range to attack the legs I can see him eating counter shots from Maheshate and basically Moggly doesn't like being hit these days. Maybe he could get a take down like the Ontiveros fight but he has 1 round gas-tank so he's not going to push a wrestling pace. I can see it being 50/50 in round 1 and the Maheshate taking over as the fight goes on. Hate the ML on Maheshate because he's mid and limited skill set but maybe 2/3 rounds could be a look.

Khutulun19
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04.16.2024 | 7:10 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 225 Points   |   Tied for 4414th

Nicolau vs. Perez
Matheus Nicolau, TKO, R3
Going to side with Nicolau by KO. He's a fundamentally great striker on the feet and can see him picking apart Perez on the outside. I haven't seen much of his BJJ but it appears he's won a few fights by sub (2x RNC, Japanese Necktie and a D'Arce in there too) and we all know how susceptible Perez is to the Sub. I must say Perez handled Mokaev's grappling last fight pretty well but my recollection of that fight was like all other Mokaev fights and he wasn't setting up the wrestling with the striking. I can't get Perez loss out of my head to Pantoja (Face Crank) and getting Ko'ed by Benavidez and still think there may be quit in him at some point over 5 rounds. Nicolau could get chinned too so FNGD might be interesting

Spann vs. Guskov
Ryan Spann, SUB, R1
Hate picking Spann because he's an absolute lunatic in all the wrong ways but I think this fight is very winnable for him. I think Guskov is low key chinny and in both fights I've watched his hands drop after 2.5 minutes which is not a good look. I think Spann is going to have a huge athetisicm advantage early and might be able to catch Guskov fluffing around with his hands low. I wouldn't be shocked to see Guskov go for a panic takedown, which I wouldn't recommend as Spann's guillotine is one of the best in the decision. I feel dirty picking Spann, but I think this is a good buy low spot

Silva vs. Lipski
Karine Silva, TKO, R1
Going to pick Silva here with a bit of confidence. Positives with her is power/explosive upside. On the feet she is low volume but she doesn't take huge risks and is happy to strike on the outside. When she enters the pocket she has power and speed and also has TD upside. I think she understands her cardio is limited which is why she opts to win moments rather than minutes. Lipski is on a bit of a hot streak and will march forward with the pressure. Her issues are still the same in my view in the fact she has no head movement (Got her caught by Cachoeira) I can see her getting caught here as well. Also if Silva doesn't get her out of there early Lipski could be live for a late finish so FNGD?

Diniz vs. Lane
Austen Lane, DEC
Watching Diniz fight, it doesn't make sense how he was a glory kickboxer. He looks laboured and just a plodder. Very Muay Thai based I'd call it. Padded record and the guy he fought on DWCS was very low level. I don't want to pick Lane here but I might have to. He will have the speed/athleticism advantage. Alot of things I don't like about Lane, particularly how he blitzes into the pocket chin up and square on. I don't like his bottom BJJ game but I just wonder if he can win minutes with cage control and maybe some top time and ride out a decision? I have no idea how Diniz will look with his back to the mat being a kick-boxer so taking the ML with him is a big risk. Lane also has alot of tread on the tyres and could easily walk into a kill shot from Diniz

Pearce vs. Onama
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
I'm pretty sure Onama is training out of Factory X. If that's the case I don't really trust fighters from that team winning moments on the ground. Onama has slick striking on the feet but I could see Pearce eating a few shots early but breaking down Onama over the course of 3 rounds with his chain wrestling. We’ve seen Onama death gas in the past against Nate the Train and this could be a similar story. Pearce did get caught last fight with a front choke but I consider Brito to be more threating with BJJ attacks than Onama.

chamaton
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04.16.2024 | 10:06 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 11 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 750 Points   |   9th Place

Spann vs. Guskov
Bogdan Guskov, TKO, R1
Guskov seems like a good top 15 fighter for the lhw division Spann should be on his way out and after that last one i don’t trust him one bit Guskov hits very hard and as long as he can chin Spann before being taken down this will be a fast night

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO, R1
Maheshate and Benitez are going to get into a fire fight at this stage in the game i don’t see Benitez holding up and eating the shots that he’s taking without getting dropped and finished

chamaton
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04.17.2024 | 10:14 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 11 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 750 Points   |   9th Place

Nicolau vs. Perez
Alex Perez, TKO, R1
Alex Perez showed great takedown defense against Mokaev that tells me this fight mainly plays out on the feet Perez is going to chew Nicolaus leg up early and make nicolau quit neither are anything special but i believe perez is better on the feet

Means vs. Medic
Uros Medic, TKO, R2
fun fight for the fans couldve been a prelim fight in front of a crowd honestly Medic is younger faster and hits harder Means has more technicality in his striking and throws alot more volume shots Medic will chin Means who has been in aot of wars and his chin doesnt hold up great nice ko win for the doctor here


* Edited at 04.17.2024, 10:16 AM ET *

chamaton
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04.17.2024 | 1:03 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 11 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 750 Points   |   9th Place

Silva vs. Lipski
Karine Silva, TKO, R1
lipski has looked good in her last 3 but dont think she is some new fighter shes still the same lipski you already know and once Karine charges foward and starts landing shots lipski will drop wanting a way out of the fight

Pearce vs. Onama
David Onama, DEC
onama has the strength to keep this one on the feet and when doing so he is going to box pearces head off likely to see a finish but i think pearce can save himself by shooting for takedowns whenever he gets significantly hurt

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, TKO, R2
both guys are old but yahya seriously needs to retire henry is still very fast on the feet and still looks like a dangerous fighter unless your a bum or have negative iq at this point i cant see yahya subbing you i think henrys cardio and amount of strikes he throws at you overwhelm yahya and victory wins by tko

Mayes vs. Machado
Don'Tale Mayes, DEC
both trash but it comes down to the fact that mayes is consistent for 3 rounds and machado is not mayes is going to win the last 2 rounds but please cut both

chamaton
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04.17.2024 | 1:36 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 11 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 750 Points   |   9th Place

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, DEC
figlak has had a lot of good things said about him i trust he gets his first ufc win here against a busted ufc vet

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, DEC
i just remember mann looking like an atomweight not a good sign

Llontop vs. Green
Gabe Green, DEC
gabe green has fought very solid competition so far win or lose i trust he can beat a debutant

Petrović vs. Liang
Ivana Petrović, SUB, R3
na liang needs to be cut

Sidomavicius
Sidomavicius
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04.18.2024 | 10:15 AM ET

Like i said…

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 485 Points   |   Tied for 2190th




StyleBenderPicks
StyleBenderPicks
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04.18.2024 | 11:04 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 555 Points   |   923rd Place

Means vs. Medic
Uros Medic, DEC
Medic wins his first dec

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO, R2
Maheshate is only 24, wow

gliese58i
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04.18.2024 | 1:10 PM ET

@Sidomavicius

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

Depends on how far the line swings. You might have been better off to catch Lipski as a huge dog if that were to happen. Of course one could always arb if they got Silva at +money in that scenario.
broccoliman
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04.18.2024 | 3:24 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 405 Points   |   Tied for 3415th

Spann vs. Guskov
Ryan Spann, TKO, R1
I really do not rate Guskov at all. He squares up whenever he's in range and leaves himself completely out of position to be countered. He has no kicking game, he just headhunts. Spann obviously has looked underwhelming the last two times out but Smith and Krylov have some diversity to their games and are LHW vets. Guskov is completely one dimensional, I think Spann puts him out quickly.

Sidomavicius
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04.18.2024 | 4:01 PM ET

@gliese58i

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 485 Points   |   Tied for 2190th

I don’t actually play lines like that. I bet on who i think is going to win. Whatever the odds are. Good example was Ruziboev vs Dumas. Wasn’t betting Dumas even if he was +1000 because I just didn’t think he was going to win. When i was looking at this card i expected Silva to be in the -150 range (thats where she is now) so i was pleasantly surprised to get her at +120 a week or so ago. Knew others will eventually see it too. 
gliese58i
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04.18.2024 | 4:10 PM ET

@Sidomavicius

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

I believe you in a practical sense but not in an absolute sense. I believe there is a number where you would bet any fighter at, depending on the fight. In my opinion it would be completely irrational to not in theory have such a number.

Being able to consistently predict line movement can be leveraged for money in itself though. A difficult thing to do in my opinion, there's been many spots where I'm absolutely certain a line will move one way then the market moves it in the other direction.
gliese58i
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04.18.2024 | 4:28 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 565 Points   |   Tied for 875th

I'm very interested to see the props for this week. There might be some value to be found there were MLs seems somewhat sparse. It's unfortunate that I'm not very good at prop betting but maybe I can get some practice at it here.
NoChillDil
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04.18.2024 | 8:13 PM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 1 of 2 Winners, 1 Perfect, 100 Points   |   Tied for 4588th

Silva vs. Lipski
Ariane Lipski, DEC
Ariane by whatever she wants (who am I kidding it will be a decision). She's by far the hottest MMA fighter in the UFC and there isn't a close second. AKA the UFC will set her up with advantageous matchups as best they can. Hope the betting line keeps moving towards Silva

Rah123
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04.18.2024 | 9:26 PM ET

Predictions coming soon...

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 515 Points   |   Tied for 1665th

Ok guys, give up.

No point you making any predictions because I am dropping mine soon.

Don't waste your time making wrong predictions. 

Just wait for mine and we can all be rich 
Amettxpc
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04.18.2024 | 11:50 PM ET

Predictions: 7 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 470 Points   |   Tied for 2482nd

  Anthony Smith is not happy with haunted Span's career with 2 wins over him. He's gonna send his Uzbek clone (Bodgan Guskov) to put Spann in a 3 Losses Skid. 
Mmagic
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04.18.2024 | 11:58 PM ET

Predictions: 0 of 0 Winners, 0 Perfect, 0 Points   |   Tied for 4681st

Yikes
STOMPZ
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04.19.2024 | 12:11 AM ET

Predictions: 11 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 715 Points   |   27th Place

Green is out of his fight with llontop, a new rival is being sought, according to llontop said at the FFC 74 event
Herb Dean
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04.19.2024 | 2:10 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 3703rd

Nicolau vs. Perez
Matheus Nicolau, DEC
55 maybe 60%

Silva vs. Lipski
Ariane Lipski, DEC
Pickem type fight and I know it’s never smart to pick against a physically advantage(and finish upside) in Wmma when skills are close enough but fck it

Pearce vs. Onama
Jonathan Pearce, DEC
Maybe 60%..

Means vs. Medic
Uros Medic, DEC
60%

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, DEC
Close. I’ll just assume this is best version of Figlak weve ever seen after his hiatus

Mayes vs. Machado
Caio Machado, DEC
Coinflip type fight but this guy is just a bit better and seems hungrier too. Arguably less dumb too

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, DEC
2 bums. Close fight

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, DEC
Maybe 60% . Probably a bit generous tho

IDPC7
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04.19.2024 | 2:19 AM ET

Predictions: 5 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 4268th

Fight night ahhh card

Page 7


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