UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

I like your take on the Gane - Spivac matchup. Yes, the risk is real, but this hasn't stopped me from slapping the +150 moneyline on Spivac.

I thoroughly recommend taking shrooms and watching Gane vs Tuivasa. RIP Spivak if he can't throw Gane around in the first 5 minutes.

What a trash card. The only thing i like is the time, i dont need to get up all night to watch this  bums.

Moises has fought good grapplers and lost to every single one. If you take away his grappling advantage, he doesn't really offer much else of a threat.

I try to avoid saying "there's absolutely no way that's happening" when it comes to an MMA fight, but I'll be very surprised if Moises "beats him on the feet" as you say. That's a pretty bold prediction for a guy entering his 11th UFC fight with a negative strike differential (BSD has a positive strike differential if you don't count his debut at welterweight where he got molly-whopped but displayed incredible durability).

Personally? I'm pretty confident in Benoit. Not a lay up by any means but I think the UFC curated this card around giving Gane, Fiorot, and Benoit very competitive but very winnable fights. 

Very well said, put BSD in your parlay. It's a lock.

This is a good matchup between two strong grapplers in the UFC Lightweight division. Whomever wins will most likely receive a ranked opponent for their next fight. Saint-Dennis seems to be a new potential contender, winning 3 of his first 4 UFC bouts by finish. Moisés has more UFC experience but hit a bit of a skid with 2 losses by finish. He’s looking to find his way back into the rankings coming in from two wins by Sub.   

Stand Up Phase:
Saint-Denis (SP) has a kind of brawler style with lots of hook combinations and likes to punish the body with RLBKs. He also comes in with heavy pressure which allows him to make is OPPs uncomfortable before finding the clinch and eventually the TD. Moisés (OX) is the more traditional kickboxer with solid 1-2 combinations and few kicks to keep space and the OPP honest. He will rush in with combinations when he finds the chance. However, he uses a HG to block jabs and counters which will leave his body exposed. I could Moisés using a decent jab and movement in order to counter the more reckless, come forward style of Saint-Denis. This could give Saint-Denis a lot of problems and could force him to shoot for TDs out of panic.   

Clinch Phase:
Saint-Denis is very strong in the clinch and does well switching between singles and doubles to finish a TD. His aggressiveness aids him in progressing through positions and preventing the OPP from gaining top position in scrambles. He does well in scrambles to find and secure the back. Moisés is also very strong in the clinch and incorporates a few trips to separate the OPP from the cage to start a scramble. He also has been tested against much higher-level competition (Makhachev, Dariush) and his defensive grappling shined through those bouts being very competitive. Moisés also finds the back very quickly in scrambles. This will probably be the phase where the fight is won or loss. If Moisés can use his strong defensive grappling he’s shown in past bouts to prevent Saint-Dennis’s offense he can force him into a stand-up fight where Moisés has the clear advantage. The frustrated Saint-Dennis will be forced into bad shots, giving Moisés the opportunity for counters.

Ground Phase:
Saint-Dennis has a very smothering presence on the ground (Uses the Leg Triangle Khabib has made famous frequently) to prevent the resistance of his OPPs. He will attack frames constantly before landing good GnP and continues to progress to more dominant positions. Moisés has very good control on the ground and is the more patient when passing of the two. Not much GnP but will force the OPP into poor positions before attacking a variety Subs until he can find the finish. Also, Moisés has powerful, black-belt level, squeeze which doesn’t require the proper grip before finding the finish. This will be another interesting phase to see how they two match-up. I could see Saint-Dennis aggression allowing him to reach advantageous positions more quickly, thus putting Moisés on the defensive and making him one step behind in the grappling exchanges.   

Prediction: Moisés wins by Split Decision
I predict Moisés strong defensive grappling will allow him to stifle most Saint-Dennis’s offense and force him into a stand-up fight. Saint-Dennis’s aggressiveness works well, but he hasn’t faced an OPP so far in the UFC that has given him sufficient resistance in the grappling exchanges. I think Moisés could provide that resistance and take advantage of the openings Saint-Dennis presents due to his come forward style.   

Abbreviations: 
SP: Southpaw 
OX: Orthodox 
RLBK: Rear Leg Body Kick 
TD: Takedown 
HG: High Guard 
GnP: Ground n pound 
OPP: Opponent    

* Edited at 08.30.2023, 9:21 PM ET *

@foppa420 

I wouldn't say Moisés has only lost to good grapplers. Those "good grapplers" in his UFC run are Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush, that's a tough hill to climb. Also, he's fought them both before he's even 30. How it plays out on the feet its anyone's guess but I give the edge to Moisés > Saint-Dennis. Saint-Dennis looks good but the man hasn't fought anyone near the level of either Makhachev or Dariush.

* Edited at 08.30.2023, 4:34 PM ET *

Great up coming MMA fight's   I think these fights will go down to the wire some fights will go down to the wire .I have to watch the highlights I did my picks as, Amuater sports writer reporter journalism commentator . Great quote and fight.

I honestly think BSD is almost as good of a grappler as Dariush tbh. He's performed well at IBJJF tournaments and pretty much is a black belt at this point. Dariush is more proven and probably edges him slightly if they competed strictly, but I don't think either of them would finish each other. BSD may also be more efficient at getting takedowns since he is a black belt in judo. Their grappling stats are pretty similar looking at it on paper

Saint-Denis vs. Moisés
Thiago Moisés, DEC
I think Benoit Saint-Denis is being overrated because of his last win.

Lapilus vs. Loughran
Taylor Lapilus, DEC
Good to see Taylor Lapilus back in the UFC.

I honestly think Charriere will do fine in the UFC. Will he be champ? Most likely not, but I think he can flirt with being ranked depending on how the UFC matches him up. If they give him the Rafael Alves treatment, then he'll probably get cut in a year, but I think bc he's still relatively young that the UFC will let him build up his experience and record, so he actually has a respectable career once he retires

Can you in the future wait with posting your excellent breakdowns until the odds on underdogs has peaked? Thanks.

Bonfim is really good. I don't know why people are now thinking that Bonfim is a fraud and think that BSD is overrated bc of that. That win is going to age really well imo. Ofc Gabriel is better and may even be a champ, but I think Ismael will get ranked at some point in his career. That last loss was just a learning lesson for him

Hard to find underdogs on this card...

@gliese58i 

Sure. When do the odds usually peak?

@RoshMMA 

there’s 4-5 viable underdogs on this card

McKee and guskov are live dogs imo