UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@unoshowtenuno 

No way man, Munoz showed some great durability in that last fight. Aori is getting his walking papers. 

Ricky had never been KO'd in his life before that, was a strange event. Dober on the other hand has been continually taking damage especially these last few fights, when Frevola is knocking you out cleanly that is not good at all. 

How can my rank show under my profile ? Do i just have to keep making predictions on ufc events ? Cuz if i need 80 predictions is gonna take a while.

@VicStrk 

It shows automatically.  I think it matters how often you make UFC picks and not necessarily a set number or minimum, so try not to skip any cards if you want your rank to show.

@The Giraffe 

Got it. Thanks for the answer.

Winner by knockkkouuuuuut joe pyfer.

Dawson vs. Green
Bobby Green, TKO, R1
I still expect Dawson to win but I think it would be funny if Bobby made it happened.

Morono vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, TKO, R1
Morono's a worthy opponent but I think Buckley is about to really hit his stride.

Stop acting like Frevola doesn’t hit hard, Steamrolla can crack

I just made a ranking list in tapology " The funniest mma fighters of all time" but i am a new fan of the sport and not very knowledgeable about old fighters so if any of you wants to add more fighters and make a ranking of your own feel free to do so. 

 1. Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green: 

• Prediction:Grant Dawson by Submission in Round 2
• Confidence:68%
• Breakdown:As you will see the common theme of this UFC Vegas 80, most of these fights is the classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Dawson will likely aim to close the distance quickly, avoiding Green's strikes, and look to get the fight to the mat. Once there, he would use his superior grappling and try to find a submission. Green, with his striking prowess, will aim to keep the fight standing, use his takedown defense, and pick Dawson apart with strikes. If Dawson can't secure takedowns or if Green can get back up quickly, Dawson might find himself in trouble. Considering Green's takedown defense and Dawson's potential issues with striking, this fight might be closer than initially thought. However, given Dawson's impressive submission rate and his potential to control the fight if it goes to the ground, the initial prediction seems accurate.

2. Joe Pyfer vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan:
 

• Prediction:Abdul Razak Alhassan by KO/TKO in Round 1
• Confidence:66%
• Breakdown:Given the deeper analysis, the dynamic of this fight leans heavily on whether Pyfer can withstand Alhassan's early barrage. If Alhassan connects cleanly, given his history, he's very likely to finish the fight. Pyfer's best chance might be to use his wrestling to nullify Alhassan's striking and look for opportunities on the ground or drag the fight into deeper waters where Alhassan could tire. However, Alhassan's experience and proven KO power are significant advantages. If Pyfer decides to trade with Alhassan, he might find himself on the wrong end of a highlight-reel knockout. Given the deeper analysis and considering Alhassan's KO power and Pyfer's less superior striking defense, the initial prediction still holds.

3. Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley:
 

• Prediction:Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO in Round 2
• Confidence:60%
• Breakdown:The narrative for this fight is relatively straightforward: can Morono withstand the early barrage from Buckley and take the fight into deeper waters? If Morono can avoid Buckley’s significant strikes early on and potentially take the fight to the ground, he could capitalize on Buckley's potential weaknesses in grappling. On the other hand, Buckley will be looking to keep the fight standing, using his power to seek a quick finish. If Morono engages in a striking battle, he could be at risk given Buckley's proven power. The fight's dynamics suggest that Morono's best chance is to make this a mixed contest, employing both his striking and grappling. However, Buckley's power is a significant factor, and if he connects, he could very well secure another highlight-reel finish.

4. Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn:
 

• Prediction:Drew Dober by Decision
• Confidence:58%
• Breakdown:This matchup is intriguing due to the contrasting strengths of both fighters. Dober will likely want to keep the fight standing, where he can leverage his superior boxing and striking power. His aggressive approach might be advantageous against Glenn, who sometimes can be caught in brawls. On the other hand, Glenn, with his versatile background, might look to make the fight messy, using clinches, attempting takedowns, and leveraging his slight height and reach advantage. If he can avoid getting into wild exchanges and potentially expose Dober's vulnerabilities on the ground, Glenn might find success. That said, Dober's experience against top-level competition might play a crucial role, allowing him to navigate through tricky situations and control the pace of the fight. Given the deeper analysis, Dober's striking advantage and experience seem to be significant factors. While Glenn has tools in his arsenal to make it competitive, Dober's aggressive and controlled striking might see him edge out a decision.

5. Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba:
 

• Prediction:Ion Cutelaba by KO/TKO in Round 2
• Confidence:68%
• Breakdown:The dynamic of this fight is intriguing. Lins's well-rounded game might be offset by Cutelaba's sheer power and aggression. Lins will likely look to weather the early storm, potentially using his grappling to tire Cutelaba out and avoid those heavy hands. If Cutelaba doesn't get an early finish, the match might start to lean more in Lins's favor as the fight progresses. Lins should be cautious of engaging in wild exchanges, given Cutelaba's proven knockout power. Instead, working to control the pace, utilize leg kicks, and seeking opportunities to grapple could be advantageous for Lins. However, Cutelaba's takedown stats and defense suggest he might be well-prepared for Lins's grappling advances. If he can defend early takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, it'll be his striking versus Lins's defense. Given the deeper analysis, while Cutelaba has the edge in terms of raw power and aggression, Lins's well-rounded skill set shouldn't be underestimated. However, Cutelaba's sheer knockout ability, combined with Lins's defensive vulnerabilities in striking, still tilts the scales slightly in favor of Cutelaba.

6. Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo:
 

• Prediction:Bill Algeo by Decision
• Confidence:60%
• Breakdown:This bout has the makings of a strategic chess match. Algeo's striking advantage does present a concern for Hernandez, but Hernandez's explosive style and wrestling background cannot be overlooked. If Hernandez can successfully blend his striking with takedown attempts, he might disrupt Algeo's rhythm. Bill Algeo's takedown defense will be tested in this fight. If he can fend off the takedowns and keep the fight standing, his striking volume could win him rounds. However, the concern lies in whether he can handle the pressure if Hernandez successfully implements his wrestling. Hernandez's potential game plan might be to mix things up – using his striking to set up takedown attempts, ensuring he doesn’t become predictable. If Hernandez can secure a few takedowns, he might be able to edge out the rounds, even if Algeo dominates the stand-up. Considering the deeper analysis, Hernandez's well-rounded skill set and athleticism could pose more problems for Algeo than initially considered.

7. Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbita:
 

• Prediction:Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision
• Confidence:62%
• Breakdown:This matchup is likely to be primarily contested on the feet. Kowalkiewicz, with her volume and movement, will aim to establish her rhythm early on. Her experience against top-tier competition should give her a strategic edge in terms of fight IQ. Belbita's aggression might be a double-edged sword. While it can provide moments of pressure against Karolina, it might also leave her open to counterstrikes. Kowalkiewicz's superior striking defense could be a significant factor, allowing her to deflect much of Belbita's offense while landing her combinations. If Belbita chooses to introduce grappling into the equation, it could provide an interesting twist. While Karolina has had some troubles on the ground in the past, it remains to be seen if Belbita can exploit that consistently. However, considering the data and the stylistic matchup, Karolina's volume striking, combined with her experience and striking defense, makes her the favorite to win this bout.

8. Chris Gutierrez vs. Montel Jackson:
 

• Prediction:Montel Jackson by Decision
• Confidence:65%
• Breakdown:This matchup sets up as a classic striker vs. grappler encounter, though both fighters have shown multi-dimensional skill sets. Gutierrez will look to employ his striking, especially those debilitating leg kicks, to stymie Jackson's advances. Jackson, with his reach and grappling prowess, will likely aim to close the distance, engage in clinch work, and find takedown opportunities. Jackson's game plan might revolve around minimizing damage from Gutierrez's strikes, especially the leg kicks, and using his grappling to score points and control the bout. If Gutierrez can maintain distance, his leg kicks could become a significant factor, potentially hampering Jackson's mobility, and takedown attempts. A pivotal point in this bout could be Gutierrez's takedown defense. If he can prevent Jackson from consistently taking him down, he might be able to outpoint him on the feet. Conversely, if Jackson can find success with his takedowns and control Gutierrez on the ground, he may edge out rounds.

9. Aoriqileng vs. Johnny Munoz:
 

• Prediction:Johnny Munoz by Submission in Round 3
• Confidence:67%
• Breakdown:This bout is shaping up as a classic striker vs. grappler duel. Aoriqileng's high-volume approach might pose problems for Munoz early on, especially if he can keep the fight standing and press the action. Munoz will likely look to weather this early onslaught, secure takedowns, and work his superior grappling. A critical factor here will be Munoz's ability to get the fight to the mat. Given Aoriqileng's propensity to engage in striking exchanges, he might leave openings for Munoz to shoot in and take the fight to his world. If Munoz can do this, he has a solid chance of finding a submission, particularly given his grappling prowess and Aoriqileng's potential vulnerabilities on the ground. On the other hand, if Aoriqileng can keep the fight standing and maintain his striking volume, he has a chance to outwork Munoz for a decision. But Munoz's grappling threat is ever-present, making this a razor-sharp matchup.

10. Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Kanako Murata:
 

• Prediction:Kanako Murata by Decision
• Confidence:65%
• Breakdown:This fight also sets up as a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, albeit with a twist given Murata's strong wrestling. While Demopoulos would ideally want to engage in a grappling contest, she'd prefer it to be on her terms, looking for submissions. Murata, on the other hand, will seek to use her wrestling to control Demopoulos, avoid submissions, and land ground-and-pound. Given Demopoulos' prowess on the ground, there's always the chance she could catch Murata in a submission during a scramble or transition. However, Murata's wrestling and ability to dictate the fight's location provides her with a tactical advantage. One key aspect to monitor is how Demopoulos deals with being on her back. If she can't effectively threaten with submissions or get back to her feet, it could be a long night for her. Conversely, if Murata gets too complacent on the ground, she might find herself in a precarious situation against a skilled jiu-jitsu artist.

11. Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonca:
 

• Prediction:Mateus Mendonca by Decision
• Confidence:57%
• Breakdown:The dynamics of this fight pit Mendonca's striking and agility against Maness' versatility and determination. Mendonca will likely seek to maintain the fight on the feet, using his precise striking to score points and potentially look for a finish. Maness, aware of the striking disparity, might look to mix things up, incorporating feints, level changes, and potential takedown attempts to keep Mendonca guessing. Maness' path to victory likely involves making the fight messy, closing the distance, and potentially dragging it to the mat. If he stands at range with Mendonca, he risks being picked apart. Conversely, Mendonca should employ lateral movement and use his reach to tag Maness from a distance. Taking a deeper look and considering Maness' versatility and resilience, the fight may be closer than initially analyzed.

12. Montana De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich:
 

• Prediction:Montana De La Rosa by Decision
• Confidence:57%
• Breakdown:The primary narrative of this fight remains the striker (Aldrich) vs. grappler (De La Rosa) dynamic. Aldrich will want to use her striking to score points and potentially hunt for a KO/TKO. De La Rosa, aware of this, will likely look for openings to shoot for takedowns, especially when Aldrich commits to her strikes. A crucial aspect of this fight will be the clinch game. If Aldrich can keep De La Rosa at bay with her jabs and kicks, she'll make it hard for De La Rosa to close the distance. However, if De La Rosa can get Aldrich against the cage, she might find success in dragging the fight to the ground. Given the data provided and the deeper analysis, while Aldrich has the striking advantage, De La Rosa's persistent grappling threats can't be overlooked. If De La Rosa can secure even a couple of takedowns, she might change the course of the fight.

Bro if you are making a list of the funniest MMA fighters of all time make sure you include Jonathan Reynolds. He is hillarious. Should be at No. 1. Also on the list should be Jarno Errens and Damir Hadzovic. They are funny AF

Dawson vs. Green
Grant Dawson, TKO, R2
Dawson will probably do the same thing Makhachev did, just will take a little longer. Pin down Green and land GNP till the ref steps in, or else it's gonna be a snoozer

Pyfer vs. Razak Alhassan
Joe Pyfer, TKO, R1
Slugfest incoming, I think Abdul will be the one to fall tho

Morono vs. Buckley
Alex Morono, DEC
Morono is very underrated, I think he'll win a UD here but Buckley is not to be slept on

Dober vs. Glenn
Drew Dober, TKO, R1
Stylistic nightmare for Glenn, if he can't take him down his chin is going into the ozone layer

Lins vs. Cutelaba
Philipe Lins, TKO, R2
Lins randomly became decent now, and he's a very strong guy Cutelaba may not be able to bully him, Lins may overwhelm him after a beginning flurry from Ion.

Algeo vs. Hernandez
Alexander Hernandez, DEC
Toss up fight here, whoever shows up better will take it but I think Alex's striking will be cleaner

Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbiţă
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
When in doubt in WMMA, decision, I think Karolina has gotten her mojo back a little so I'll root for her

Gutierrez vs. Jackson
Chris Gutierrez, DEC
I'm not sure this one is gonna be close, idk why Jackson is the favorite I see a 30-27 beating from Gutierrez or a stoppage

Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Johnny Munoz Jr., DEC
Aoriqileng coming off a KO loss I don't feel confident taking him, I'll go Munoz

Murata vs. Demopoulos
Kanako Murata, DEC
Demopoulos isn't anything special, good opportunity for a comeback win for Murata

Maness vs. Mendonça
Nate Maness, DEC
Maness I believe is the better striker and will come looking to end this L streak, Mateus is not an easy fight though

De La Rosa vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, DEC
Aldrich coming back quick, I believe she should win a hard fought decision here

@Rah123 

I will see about adding them.
At the moment the top 3 in the list are Paulo Costa, Rampage and Chael Sonnen. With Derrick Lewis and Mike Perry close behind. 

No way people actually think Ricky Glenn stands a chance against Drew Dober because he got KO'd by Frevola.

Giagos's striking looked phenomenal against Glenn, than goes up against Zellhuber and looks like he barely learned to strike yet.

* Edited at 10.01.2023, 9:59 PM ET *

+ money on u1.5 in the Lins/Cutelaba matchup? Juicy, very juicy

Do you think If tony won against Bobby would the UFC have made him go up against Dawson? 

@DamienHandel420 

Couldn't KO Polo Reyes or Vannata, now he's KO'ing post USADA guys and now Drew Dober lol

 

@offthecrossbar 

He actually rocked Zellhuber really badly, and if the guy wasn't Mexican he probably would've been KO'd. 

I've got:

Belbita 1u
Gutierrez 1u
Aldrich 0.8u
Cutelaba 0.6u