UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Not sure how you can be confident after how old and geriatric Glenn looked in his last fight. He couldn’t even see Giagos’s punches coming…

@gliese58i 

my opinion
Belbita 1u = no
Gutierrez 1u = maybe
Aldrich 0.8u = maybe
Cutelaba 0.6u = yes

Sounds like you're 50/50 on them bets. That would be above my around 40% average hit rate so I'll take it! Anyway the bets are already in although I should've waited on Aldrich, the other ones I caught on a peak.

@gliese58i 

it would be a shame if Karolina loses to Diana. 
the others for me really close to 50/50 or 60/40

I like Karolina, always have, so from that perspective i*m happy when she wins. I try not to let such sentiments influence my bets though. It has cost me in the past betting Swedish fighters.
I would say I'm generally quite good at remaining neutral about betting. Not to confuse with a gut feeling you can get about a fighter's looks, demeanor or whatever at the weigh-ins for example. I believe we're hard-wired as humans to some extent to recognize danger/dominance or whatever you want to call it and read other people in that way so I don't completely ignore it if I have a strong hunch about a fighter.

Dawson vs. Green
Grant Dawson, SUB, R3
win

Pyfer vs. Razak Alhassan
Joe Pyfer, SUB, R3
win

Morono vs. Buckley
Alex Morono, SUB, R3
win

Dober vs. Glenn
Drew Dober, SUB, R3
fight

Lins vs. Cutelaba
Philipe Lins, SUB, R3
win

Algeo vs. Hernandez
Bill Algeo, DEC
fight

Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbiţă
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
win

Gutierrez vs. Jackson
Chris Gutierrez, DEC
fight

Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng, DEC
win

Murata vs. Demopoulos
Kanako Murata, DEC
fight

Maness vs. Mendonça
Nate Maness, DEC
win

De La Rosa vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, DEC
fight

@gliese58i 

i mean
in my world
no way K. Kowalkiewicz 
will become in a row
with Maria Oliveira and Hannah Goldy
like a scalp belonging to D. Belbiţă

Not the hill I would die on. As always we wont have our final answer until the fight is over. I will say it's the bet I like the most odds-wise (around +160 on my ticket) out of the ones I listed before.

* Edited at 10.02.2023, 11:41 AM ET *

This Joe Pyfer line has gotten insane. -500? He's beaten Amedovski and Meerschaert in the UFC and is now -500 over Razak Alhassan. Just seems nuts to me. 

* Edited at 10.02.2023, 1:44 PM ET *

Dawson vs. Green
Grant Dawson, SUB, R2
Rip king 😢

Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbiţă
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
To good to be fighting bums

Gutierrez vs. Jackson
Chris Gutierrez, DEC
Bounce back

Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Johnny Munoz Jr., SUB, R2
Bro commented on my IG + Ao gasses

Maness vs. Mendonça
Mateus Mendonça, TKO, R1
Manesss bad

De La Rosa vs. Aldrich
Montana De La Rosa, DEC
La Rosa looked good against Tatiana

Morono vs. Buckley
Alex Morono, DEC
This should be a great fight, I can see either guy winning tbh!

Algeo vs. Hernandez
Bill Algeo, SUB, R3
Really hope I'm wrong here.

Kowalkiewicz vs Belbita 
Kowalkiewicz DEC 

Very odd matchmaking on this one. KK is on a three fight winstreak & yet she is fighting down from her last fight? Belbita is really bad. Despite this, I have a weird feeling about this fight. On paper i have to give kk the advantage everywhere but then I remember how washed she is. Sure, shes on a three fight winstreak but we cant forget that she was also on a 5 fight losing streak just 2 years ago. In that time, shes beaten a very washed felice herrig, barely beat Juarez (I still think she lost that fight), and for what its worth she did look good against demopolus, but vanessa missed weight, has the shortest reach on the roster, and is a godawful striker. Even tho she won that fight i remember vanessa landed one shot that had hurt KK, but she played it off well. Idk like shes winning these fights but its against very low level girls & she is just not the same person. KK is a high volume, low damage striker. Shes one of those girls who lands a ton but does no damage at all. She used to be a lot better but has gotten a lot worse since the andrade ko. KK really hates getting hit & is honestly a little chinny. Shes been using her grappling a lot more since going to ATT but even then shes not going in and wrestling as much as I remembered. She used it early against juarez & then stopped doing it in rounds 2 & 3 which i thought was really dumb. Belbita is veyr bad but the key to beating her is grappling. Not like shes a great striker but she is a volume machine. She also like to scrap, which could make KK very uncomfortable. KK also doesnt have the best gas tank anymore so I worry she grapples early, gets tired and then loses a decision because belbita is just gonna be walking her down throwing more. ATT is very good with gameplans tho so maybe they will have her grapple the whole time. I just really hate relying on KK because she has a lot of wear and tear & while she is on a winstreak, it's against very bad comp. However, I can’t pick belbita knowing that her opponent has grappling upside; thats the easiest way to beat her. 

Gutierrez vs Jackson  
Jackson DEC 

So crazy to me that a top 15 bantamweight fight is on the prelims. Montel might not be the most exciting fighter but he is (imo) a dark horse in the division. Idk if he will ever be in contention but he is somebody who I think can stick around in the top 10. Montel has a lot of things going for him. For starters, he is super athletic. He has a massive frame for the division too, specifically his reach. 5”10 already makes him one of the taller bws in the division but his reach is insane, sitting at 75.5 inches. The best part about having this reach is montel knows exactly how to use it. He fights behind his jab & man is he effective with it. His jab is very fast and he has a ton of power with it. Montel just has insane power in general, another thing that makes him so scary. From DWCS to now, Montel has amassed 12 knockdowns in the promotion; that is just insane for a 135 pounder. The downside to this power is montel has awful finishing instincts. He has the ability to one shot people, but if they just get knocked down he will go the ground and wrestle with them. Its very annoying to watch but he knows how to win fights. Montel’s wrestling is also very good. I wish he would look to actively finish/do more on the ground but he knows how to win minutes there. While his level of competition is not the best in the ufc, montels only losses were to top 15 guys who could outwrestle him. It should also be noted that he had to face ricky simon in his debut which is crazy. I think all this makes montel a very bad matchup for gutierrez. Gutierrez was able to get to the top 15 with a very sneaky winstreak. While he has had some very good performances, theres still a few flaws he has that makes me think he will struggle to hang with the top 15. The biggest thing here is the wrestling gap. Gutierrez has solid tdd but once you get him down he is not getting back up; his wrestling is just not good. I think montel will have a lot of success with wrestling & it is likely how he wins this fight. Even on the feet I lean montel. Gutierrez is a great striker but he has poor boxing. Gutierrez is a kicker, relying heavily on his leg kicks. He can’t box that well and has struggled with punch heavy strikers a lot. One thing i worry about here is how montel deals with the leg kicks. While his primary gameplan is to wrestle, montel does like to strike. I think his jab & size is going to give gutierrez a lot of issues but montel has really skinny legs on top of the fact that he doesn’t really check kicks. Granted, hes never faced a kicker like guttierez before but still, its something to be aware of. Overall, I think the striking is competitive. I think montel can win on the feet but its really going to be about who’s able to get their weapons out first, montel’s jab or gutierrez’s leg kicks. Theres also the power difference; everything montel lands is going to be impactful where gutierrez is mostly all leg kicks. The wrestling is what will make the big difference here & i think if montel gets gutierrez down, he will stay down. 

Munoz Jr vs Aoriqileng  
Aoriqileng KO RD 2

This one is very hard for me to pick; I think both guys are honestly a lot better than what theyve shown so far in the ufc. I don’t think either are world beaters but theyve gotten pretty unlucky with their results. For munoz, I already mentioned how i thought he beat maness but, there was also that loss to gravely. I like gravely & dont want to take credit from him but that was a fluke win a la Parnasse vs torres 1; Munoz ran into his shoulder and got freak koed from it. Munoz only real loss to me was his most recent fight against willycat. Now this was actually a bad look. Not because willycat is bad but munoz had like 3 good minutes in him and just wanted out of there. In all fairness to him, his nuts got destroyed (he was pissing blood after the fight) but still, aside from some sub attempts all he did was pull guard and hang on for dear life. It couldve been due to the nut shots but he looked completely dead after round 1 and was just playing defensive bjj the whole fight. One thing ive noticed about munoz is that he absolutely hates being pressured. Even in his fight with sholinian he was uncomfortable. Sholinan just kept walking forward & eating everything. Now, he wasn’t throwing anything back but you could see munoz was not having a good time. Munoz likes to control the pace of his fights. His striking is pretty decent imo but he doesn’t hit that hard & as i said he hates being pressured. Munoz has pretty solid boxing fundamentals & also has a very long frame for the division which helps. Where munoz is best is his grappling. Munoz bjj is very solid; his transitions are super quick & his long arms allow him to pull off rnc’s and guillotines. AQ is very frustrating to me because he has a lot of good qualities, but once the fight gets ugly he forgets his gameplan & goes balls to the wall. His first two fights at flyweight were actually pretty close but he lost because he kept a pace he couldnt maintain. I would say AQ won about half the fight against molina & then after the knockdown in round 2 his cardio failed bad & he got beat up. I really still think that he beat durden too; that fight was close regardless (a performance thats aging very well) but AQ really slowed down from wrestling in that fight. Since going to 135, he has moved to fight ready where he has looked a lot better. Despite this, he has still been inconsistent. That last loss of his was just shocking; he got sniped out of nowhere. AQ has a crazy chin so I was pretty shocked to see him get slept so badly. I also am not sure where to judge AQ’s cardio still. He slowed down really bad against jay perrin but, you do have to factor in that the fight was at elevation (and everyone that night was having trouble with the utah altitude). Munoz is not one to push a crazy pace so I think AQ should be able to fight where he wants. AQ is a much better striker than munoz & will be the aggressor. Munoz is rangy & AQ is very hittable, but munoz is not very powerful and he struggles when people force him to fight. AQ can be taken down but his wrestling has improved a good amount. Munoz could get him down but he has to grind on people to get it to the mat; he is not an efficient wrestler. If he does get it to the mat i would not be surprised if he subs AQ. Hes never been put in danger on the mat but he is not the best at getting back up. I also have a weird feeling that he cant grapple well at all, since we really havent seen anyone try to sub him. However, I think AQ is going to give munoz a lot of issues with his pressure. He also hits really hard; AQ doesnt have a lot of kos but he carries a ton of power. I wouldn’t say munoz is chinny but he has had some bad reactions to being hit before. I have a bad feeling he will find a way to lose this fight, but im going to go with AQ to win.

Murata vs Demopolus  
Murata DEC 

I was a little shocked to see Murata as such a big favorite. I like her but I’m not sure I rate her highly enough to be over -300 against anyone. However, she is fighting vanessa demopolus so the line is somewhat justified, its just I don’t like someone so one dimensional to be a massive fav; especially considering that she is on a 2.5 year layoff. That being said, Murata is very good in her one dimension. Murata comes from a judo & freestyle wrestling background. I really like her style because its pretty unique for a wmma fighter; shes like a considerably worse tatiana suarez. Murata has no striking but she is a fantastic grappler & is very good at winning minutes with her top control. I have never liked demopolous & I think leaving fight ready was career suicide for her. Vanessa has never really been that good; she is a pretty talented bjj practitioner but she doesn’t know how to fight at all. She can’t strike, has no gameplan, and does the most low iq **** every fight. Despite all these flaws, Fight ready was actually helping her make improvements; i mean the fact they managed to get her 1 win, let alone 3 is impressive. Vanessa then decided to leave for factoryx (massive downgrade) because of management issues & the decline in her performance was very notable. For starters, she fought the ghost of KK & got her ass kicked. She didn’t attempt to grapple at all, instead standing & trading against a vet striker who was way better than her. To top things off, she also missed weight & looks on track to miss again. She posted to her ig 3-4 days ago her on the scales, it read 135 lbs; so, she might even miss weight again. What i think is going to happen is Murata will get takedowns at will; vanessa can’t wrestle well BUT she loves to just pull guard. She is tricky with her armbars and triangle chokes but I think Murata’s defense is good enough. She did get dominated by virna, but virna is also one of the better grapplers in the weight class. This should probably be a very boring 30-27 for murata. I hope vanessa gets the boot after this too.

Maness vs Mendonca
  Mendonca KO RD 2

This is very weird matchmaking; I dont know why either wants to fight at 125. Maness has to kill himself to make weight & was already wildly inconsistent with his results at 135. Looking back at his ufc run, Maness has had some crazy luck. I really thought he lost to munoz & his two other wins he was getting his ass kicked before getting a hail mary finish. Since that, he has had to fight two members of team khabib & subsequently got his ass kicked. All this made me wonder, what is maness actually good at? Sure, hes absolutely massive for 125 but he doesnt do a lot in there. He is pretty low volume & has very bad reactions to getting hit. Its not like hes chinny but you can see he doesn’t like to take damage. I bet at 125 his chin is even weaker as well. I used to think maness has good tdd but its really just because hes tall and lanky, making it hard for people who can’t wrestle well to get him down. Then we have mendonca, who I have never really understood the hype about. He impressed on dwcs, but that guy he fought was just plain awful so can’t take much from that imo. His other fights he just doesn’t impress me that much; he seems to be solid everywhere but not amazing anywhere. One thing i really don’t like is that hes a punching bag. Chute boxe guys arent known for their defense but they make up for it by turning fights into insane brawls or rolling with the punches; mendonca hasn’t really shown any of that. His grappling is alright but again he can be taken down & outgrappled. I think he wins because maness just doesn’t do enough for me. You can’t rely on getting your ass kicked & finding a finish every time. I think if mendonca makes this a brawl he is going to catch nate early. I also don’t trust nates chin at this weight class; he was getting dropped all the time at 135 I cant imagine how it is at 125.

MDLR vs Aldrich  
MDLR DEC

Dont care. MDLR is better than her record looks; JJ is a big step down from suarez & MBS. I didn’t like how easily liang was getting JJ down, MDLR is a much better wrestler. If she cant get jj down she will lose as she is not comfortable at all on her feet.

* Edited at 10.02.2023, 7:48 PM ET *

Dawson vs Green  
Dawson SUB RD 2

I honestly really hate this fight. Bobby is one of my all time favs but this is just a completely nonsensical matchup. Bobby is a vet & always been right outside the top 15 but I don’t think he should be facing someone ranked. Grant dawson is now like 10-0-1 or something in the ufc and coming off of his biggest win yet, this honestly seems like a huge step down. If this fight was 2-3 years ago I would definitely give bobby a chance, but I think he is too old now. I will say, bobby has historically always had fantastic grappling but Dawson is younger & just too damn good at what he does. Theres still a lot of things in his game that I hate but since going to ATT, he has perfectly refined his strategy. Dawson is a back take merchant; he wants to take you down, take the back, and either ride out control or get an RNC. I still think dawson’s striking is awful; if he tries to trade with bobby he will certainly lose. Obviously, he won’t do that for 5 rounds but if he somehow has trouble with the takedown this could get ugly. Despite slowing down, bobby is still such a tricky stiker. I love how he just flows out there & his striking has always been very tough to deal with at every level. As hes gotten older, his durability & reflexes have declined a bit. He is reacting worse to punches & his style is heavily reliant on head movement & shoulder rolls, so his declining reflexes have made him easier to hit. However, I doubt dawson will do much of anything to him. Seeing him get clipped hard by madsen, throw sloppy backfist & fall down, and many other moments have not impressed me. However, his grappling is just so good. Training with thos beasts at ATT has leveled up his game in an insane way. Bobby has always had great tdd & i honestly think his grappling is an underrated aspect of his game. However, dawson is going to find the takedown at some point, weather its a scramble or a td. Bobby hasn't been subbed in a very long time but I think dawson is going to find something. He doesnt throw much gnp so maybe this is a snoozefest where he backpacks bobby for 5 rounds (god save us) but im praying he finds a finish. Would be cool to see bobby win but I think his chances are quite slim. Dawson is just too good at what he does.

Pyfer vs Alhassan  
Pyfer DEC

I think this is really strange matchmaking & also a weird choice for a co main. This should be a good fight & i get they want to promote pyfer but this feels like a step down from his last fight. GM3 is a gatekeeper & usually once you beat him you fight a top 15/someone outside it. Instead hes facing a glass cannon. Alhassan has had a very weird career. He was a hot prospect at 170 but after legal troubles he appeared to be done. He came back a total shell of himself, getting outclassed 3 fights in a row & missing weight twice. Since this, he has made a switch to elevation fight team & has improved. I dont think he has improved a ton, but he isn’t losing fights as badly as he was. Alhassan still has poor cardio but he is no longer a 1 round fighter. He still gets very tired but being at elevation helps him fight through it better. I also thought alhassan was robbed against buckley, so you could say he is on a 3 fight winstreak. In that fight, he (imo) got the better of buckley with the striking in rounds 1 & 3 and used his takedowns to control buckley in the last round. He was very tired after & still got taken down a lot but he showed that he can finally fight outside round 1 and finally decided to use grappling for once. His fight against ribiero was odd; I really thought he couldve won that in round 1 but decided to play it safe. I was a little concerned at the start. Those leg kicks from ribiero were landing & Buckley did not like that at all. BUt after clinching for a round he let go and smoked him. Alhassan is a very dangerous striker. He has super sharp kickboxing technique & insane natural power; he has a death touch in any limb on his body. The path to beating him is takedowns; Alhassan has never been able to defend takedowns well & wrestling causes him to slow down faster & lose the pop in his punches. I'm still not sure if I'm 100% sold on pyfer yet tho. He has looked very good thus far & has a well rounded skillset but he has shown a few things that concern me. For one, he looks a little stiff when striking. Pyfer loves to slug it out & has great power himself, but i dont like how he leaves his chin out in exchanges. He has never been koed by punches nor has he shown to be chinny but you are always leaving yourself at risk standing & trading with alhassan early. Amedovski was able to land a few shots on pyfer (i know thats being a little harsh but someone that bad should not be tagging you) and he looked a little uncomfortable on the feet against gm3. I know he slept him & made gm3 look horrible, but he was being really weird that fight. He would crack gm3 bad but was not following up at times & seemed a little tentative. If he wants to stand & bang with alhassan, he can def win but I think this becomes a super close fight if he strikes; I honestly lean alhassan in the standup. If Pyfer is smart, he will grapple here. His wrestling is decent but pyfer trains with the philly boys who have very high level bjj. He has shown his grappling level in fury grappling events, beating anders & gm3 in grappling. If he shoots tds i think he will win this fight pretty comfortably. He might even get a sub but i wouldnt rely fully on that. Pyfer reaching the -500 territory is a little scary to me but he should win this fight.

Morono vs Buckley  
Buckley KO RD 2

This is one of the closer fights on this card. Morono is a super underrated vet. He has beaten a lot of people but only lost to the top 25-30 level of the division. Most of his recent ufc losses has came from his durability. He got smoked by khaos who has poor striking but hits like a truck, he was doing well against pettis before he got hit by the wheel kick, and he was smoking ponzi while on 3 days notice but got hit with a hail mary shot. That loss was very unlucky because had Morono had a full camp, there was a very good chance he wins that fight. He was beating ponzi in every striking exchange but he got clocked with an overhand that put him out. Ponzi did hit him clean but I do feel that the brutal weight cut morono had and the short notice affected his ability to take a punch. Morono has never had the best durability as it is but he was definitely compromised there. Morono is a very deceptive fighter. He is not a natural athlete like other fighters but he is a vet & uses his experience in his fights. He is a very underrated striker, super high volume & his jab does a lot of work in his fights. Morono is also a 2nd degree black belt but doesn’t use it as much as I would like. As far as technique goes, I think morono is much better than buckley. Buckley is dynamic but also very reliant on his athleticism where morono likes to pick you apart. I have talked bad on buckley a lot but I actually like him at 170. He was definitely very undersized at 185 but I think another thing that hurt him was the fights he was taking; fighting imavov & curtis back to back wasn’t very smart. Buckley’s skillset works a lot better facing people his own size. I also don’t believe buckley is chinny, despite his ko losses. This showed against fialho as he ate some shots clean on the chin & didn’t react to them. Buckley is going to have a huge speed advantage in this fight. Morono is a clean technical striker where buckley is going to be super explosive & landing the flashier shots to Morono’s high volume low impact shots. Buckley has also been mixing in wrestling more recently. He doesn’t try to control you, but he shoots explosive blast doubles & slams you on the ground. I could see him struggling with morono’s striking but I think he is going to find the ko shot at some point. I would not be shocked to see an upset. Buckley is an exciting fighter but I don’t think his skills are the greatest; he is just a naturally gifted athlete which takes him a long way. 

Dober vs Glenn 
 Dober KO RD 1

I thought this fight was strange when they first booked it & despite both having lost their last fights, I still think this is weird matchmaking. Yes, dober got koed in his last fight but I really don’t think its as bad as people make it out to be. Dober gets dropped all the time & with his style he was bound to get dropped at some point. While he did get ko’ed, its not like he got his lights shut out. He got dropped bad & hit with gnp; honestly I think he was rocked the same way he was against mckinney. I picked frevola over dober but honestly that fight couldve gone on a little longer. Dober wasn’t defending well but he wasn’t unconscious & he even complained himself about the stoppage. Even if dober’s chin is shot now (it’s not), I highly doubt ricky glenn is the one to do it. Glenn has had a very strange career. He is a long time vet but is one of those guys who fights once in a blue moon. I struggle to really find what glenn excels at. He is an okay striker with decent grappling defense but he doesn’t do anything special. He found success in 2021, koing netto bjj out of nowhere & 10-8’ing a gassed grant dawson to a draw, but then looked a shell of himself against giagos. Now, Giagos has decent power but is not someone known for his ko ability. It wasn’t even just getting koed that worried me, it was how glenn looked. He looked so slow & robotic out there. He was so static on the feet & basically handed his chin to giagos. Also getting faceplant ko’ed at this point in your career & then having to fight a power puncher like dober is a bad idea. Dober is not a very technical striker & he eats punches on his chin, but glenn cannot eat a bomb from dober. He is going to march glenn down and sleep him. Maybe it will take a little bit but I cannot see glenn lasting three rounds.

Lins vs Cutelaba  
Cutelaba KO RD 1

Lins has had a bit of a career renaissance recently; he started off as a fat heavyweight & looked horrible but after some time off he has looked better. He still is low level but physically he looks great. I honestly don’t think he has improved his skills that much, just that he has clearly fixed his health. His three wins have not been very impressive to me. He went life & death with marcin prachino. He was able to win with wrestling but he got rocked a few times & was super tired after round 1. He did smoke OSP but OSP is completely shot atp. He beat Grishin who is a decent vet, but he is also ancient. Its not like Lins impressively beat him either; they mostly just fought in the clinch & sparred the whole fight. I will say, I like how lins strikes. He throws super fast punches & throws them straight at the opponents head. Ion is the definition of a glass cannon; he is a super talented guy but has the worst fight iq ever. He never has a gameplan coming into fights, he just does what he wants. Ion is honestly a very good wrestler; his control is not the best but he is one of the most accurate wrestlers in the division. He has taken down his last 7 opponents, scoring a total of 24 takedowns. His control isnt the best but when he is on top he has ferocious gnp. Ion does not have great striking but he is an aggressive brawler on the feet. He has very good power but swings wild. His gameplan may very well be to stand and bang with lins. If he does this, the fight becomes a lot closer than it should be. Ion can absolutely ko lins (& I wouldn’t be totally shocked if he does) but lins also hits hard & straight punches beat wild looping shots most of the time. However, if ion gets rocked he can go to the wrestling. If he wrestles I think he is going to dominate lins. I think this is ion’s fight to lose.

Algeo vs Hernandez  
Algeo DEC 

Idk what hernandez is thinking, they are giving him a very similar matchup to what he had last time he tried to go down. Billy q and Algeo are different fighters but they are similar in that they have unlimited cardio & are able to utilize it as a weapon. Algeo is a guy who never ****s off. He might be the least powerful male on the roster but the volume he puts out is just insane. No matter what your technical level is, Algeo knows exactly how to get strikes through. He has very bad tdd but an innate ability to just stand up. The only person who has been able to effectively hold him down for longer than a minute was fili & he had a body triangle. Against pretty much everyone else hes able to just keep standing up. He is so good at knowing when to pour it on too. Hernandez is pretty skilled everywhere. He’s a really good athlete, hes very quick, hits hard, and has good wrestling. However, he is very flawed. I don’t know what it is, cardio or mental, but Hernandez just completely falls apart after round 1. The other thing I really don’t like about hernandez is how hittable he is. His striking is really good but after round 1 he just becomes a punching bag. Even against jim miller he was getting countered a good deal. I also hated how he nearly got subbed in round 3. What really confuses me about this fight is why hernandez thinks its a good idea to go back down again. He has already been known as a 1 round fighter & we saw the last time he fought at 145 his cardio completely failed him. He even said his **** stopped working in the morning due to the weight cut last time, now he wants to try and do that again? Not sure what his thought process is there. I do think he is more skilled than algeo pretty much everywhere but algeo knows how to use his cardio as a weapon. Unlike billy, algeo is not going to accept the takedown early & just stand back up. If hernandez’s gameplan is to wrestle he is going to get exhausted very quickly against algeo. Algeo may not do much damage but he is so good at landing on people; pair that with how many punches hernandez takes & i think this is going to end badly for him. He may not get ko’ed but i think after weathering the early storm algeo is gonna take over with his pace & output.

* Edited at 10.02.2023, 7:48 PM ET *

Maness vs. Mendonça
Mateus Mendonça, DEC
29-28 Maness not a bad underdog here has only lost to the best

De La Rosa vs. Aldrich
Montana De La Rosa, DEC
Who knows

Damn, Gutierrez and Jackson fight got cancelled. Was looking forward to that.

Algeo vs. Hernandez
Alexander Hernandez, TKO, R1
Both have some iffy wins and loses I trust Herman’s power early but another risky pick Algeo drops his hands a lot, Algeo could definitely get a late finish

Kowalkiewicz vs. Belbiţă
Diana Belbiţă, DEC
Fighters aged 10 years younger will 70 percent of the time or something so we will see how that stat holds up

Gutierrez vs. Jackson
Montel Jackson, DEC
Interesting fight Montel definitely has the power to drop Guapo but the tricky striking could be a problem with his slow style

Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng
Aoriqileng, TKO, R2
Risky pick here just not trusting in Munoz’s chin after the damage he took in the santos fight however both are hit or miss

This is an interesting match of clearly polar opposite styles. Dawson comes in as the young, surging contender riding an 8-fight unbeaten streak within the UFC. Green is known as a wild veteran who’s made a name being in very exciting, action-packed fights. This fight is a bit odd to make since Dawson has seemingly nothing to gain from facing such a dangerous, however, unranked opponent in Green. However long this fight lasts, I expect it to be a highly entertaining clash between a heavy pressure, grinding wrestler and slick, unorthodox boxer.   

Stand Up Phase:

Dawson (OX) has basic kickboxing which he uses primarily to set up his TDs and find the clinch. He has good consistent jab and lands a solid 1-2 combination. His striking defense is a bit lacking since he tends to retreat in straight lines and doesn’t use substantial head movement. Green (SP) has good, quick boxing with kicks sprinkled into to maintain distance. His timing is excellent for starting combinations and landing counters. His jab is consistent and allows him to dictate the space before finding angles to land combinations. He uses a lot of head movement and lateral movement for striking defense. Prediction: Green’s cleaner striking and movement will provide a lot of issues for Dawson before he’s able to secure the clinch. If Green is judicious with his shot selection and can consistently keep his back away from the cage, he could force the fight to remain standing.     

Clinch Phase:

Dawson has variety in his TD attempts, using single leg shots and foot trips. He secures most of his TDs against the cage before controlling his OPPs legs and transitioning to the back seamlessly. He will employ heavy pressure constantly until he’s able to secure a dominant position. Green has decent TD defense and frames when defending against the cage. He uses these tools to create space and returns to striking. Also, he’s able to land heavy knees and other strikes within the clinch. Prediction: Dawson’s constant pressure and variety of TD attempt will begin to overwhelm Green if Green is not able to force the clinch into open space. Eventually, Dawson will secure a TD and begin progressing to a dominant position (Probably back control).   

Ground Phase:

Dawson has excellent, heavy control when he can secure the TD on his OPPs. He usually prefers to secure back control and land strikes until he can secure the RNC. His use of the leg clamp prevents his OPPs use of their frames before securing the hips and finding the back. From there he grinds most OPPs until they give up the choke or can be finished with GnP. Green has good GnP and submission defense when he’s in top position. He’s able to progress through grappling positions and avoid submissions, but his ability to return to his feet is lacking. Prediction: If Dawson can secure the TD, he will be able to control Green with relative ease and maintain top control if he’s not able to secure a finish.     

Prediction: Dawson wins by Second Round TKO

Green will use lots of movements and quick combinations to attempt to keep Dawson at bay. I predict Dawson will use enough of his striking to keep Green wary before finding chances to secure a single leg. Once he secures the TD, Dawson will use his pressure and control to exhaust Green before securing the finish.   

Abbreviations: 

OX: Orthodox 
SP: Southpaw 
TD: Takedown 
UH: Underhook 
OPP: Opponent 
RNC: Rear Naked Choke 
GnP: Ground and pound  

* Edited at 10.02.2023, 11:59 PM ET *

Dawson vs. Green
Grant Dawson, DEC
Dawsons definitely has the cardio to win at least 3 rounds to 2 we will see how greens grappling defense holds up he has been cracked in wobbled in his last few fights and looked terrible against tony

Pyfer vs. Razak Alhassan
Joe Pyfer, SUB, R1
Done in 1

Morono vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, TKO, R3
Close fight hard, don’t see morono taking Buckley down but can definitely see Buckley being able to mix in grappling

Dober vs. Glenn
Drew Dober, TKO, R1
Let’s see if Dober lets him win

Murata vs. Demopoulos
Kanako Murata, DEC
In a battle of two grapplers, you gotta think Murata will have a lot of advantages. On paper, she’s the stronger wrestler and should have the advantage on the feet. Vanessa has found all of her UFC success against strikers with little to no grappling defense. I don’t know if it will be dominant, but I think Murata has all of the tools to shut down Vanessa’s BJJ and beat her with wrestling/striking.

De La Rosa vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, DEC
A fight I could see going either way, but I’m leaning JJ. Statistically, she’s got pretty solid TDD and better striking/defense on the feet. She was able to stop five takedowns from Gillian Robertson, and I don’t see why she can’t do that against MDL. If she can stop the takedowns and keep this upright, I think she could get a decision win.

* Edited at 10.03.2023, 12:10 AM ET *

It’s suck how the only  interesting fight on the card is off, Even tho I favor Montell because of a wresling advantage , Don’t think Chris Gutierrez is a easy win,  

Now the card has nothing really interesting, either low level fighters or mismatch’s on it, even tho I don’t think it be boring, not many fights to care about before hand 

* Edited at 10.03.2023, 3:42 AM ET *