UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
Get Porter outta here

I haven't seen any of Aliskerov's fights, is he a really good wrestler? Looking at his record it doesn't scream elite wrestler. The names I recognize are pretty bad wrestlers like Tiuliulin.
Hawes is inconsistent but I tentatively pick him for his power and that I know he can wrestle. And in fairness the guys he's lost to recently are solid.

* Edited at 05.06.2023, 1:24 PM ET *

He looks good to me. He's good at holding opponents down against the cage like most of the Dagis. He will have to get through the pocket without Hawes clipping him though.

Dober vs. Frevola
Dober, KO/TKO
I think Frevola could have some moments with the wrestling but I ultimately see him coming out on the wrong end of a striking exchange with the crimson chin. Hes just too willing to bang and I've seen Dober too many times come out on the winning end of said moments. I could see Frevola decidedly wining round 1 with wrestling and then getting flattened in round 2 after his first or second TD attempt fails. If Frevola is smart, paces himself well and avoids brawling he could steal a big win here. I just see him brawling at some point or getting caught because hes so tired from trying to wrestle so much. Dober isn't a wrestler but hes not totally incompetent and its not like Frevolas wrestling is at this super elite level. Very fun fight where the I think the odds are dead accurate for once.

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Nzechukwu, KO/TKO
I think Kennedy gets better every fight and while he has a reach advantage against most fighters, he's gonna have 8inches to work with against Clark. Clark's fairly well rounded in his skillset but his striking just isn't that good. I was really impressed with Kennedy in his last fight against Cutelaba and I see Clark pretty much having all the same problems trying to deal with Kennedys massive frame.

Williams vs. Bedoya
Williams, KO/TKO
Not a lot of confidence in this pick if I'm being brutally honest. Chute box guys in general are pretty hittable since the entire style is based around being able to take a shot to give a shot. Bedoya has an awesome chin and a style that could really frustrate Williams but I think the quality of competition here is just too large. If Williams is too timid and gun shy he could just end up losing rounds due to Bedoyas pressure, ability to take shots and willingness to mix in take downs and sub attempts. I think Bedoyas has some potential but there are levels to MMA. I also just don't really like the way he covers up and tries to recover after getting hit hard. Khaos has a finish waiting for him on a platter as long as he's patient and is willing to string a few power shots together.

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Rodriguez, DEC
I see Jandiroba losing to many moments on the feet and not being able to hold Rodriguez down long enough to score rounds in her favor. Rodriguez looked totally out classed in her last fight against Lemos but Lemos just might be that good. I think Jandiroba is solid but I like the MMA math here involving their common opponents in Dern and Ribas. Definitely a close fight though because both fighters style can nullify the others. 

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Aljamain Sterling, TKO, R3
I think Aljo controls this fight post first round. Starts learning the timing, and movement of Henry by 2. 1-1 on the cards for the judges. I think late in the third Aljo times an incredible Highlight reel flying knee KO off of Triple C.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, DEC
29-28x2 28-29 This is going to be incredible. I can't quite call it but these two are ready for 5 and their gonna get 3 rounds. Banger, and I think they leave it on the table. Burns fighting last month might be in Belal's favor. I lean Burns by a grueling split decision. 29-28 is correct on the side of Burns.

Andrade vs. Yan
Xiaonan Yan, DEC
29-28x2 28-29 Split Dec. I think Andrade is just a tad slower, leaving a lot of opening for Yan's game.

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, SUB, R1
Movsar is special. I think he gets out of dodge and gets work done quickly. RNC first round.

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Charles Jourdain, TKO, R3
I can see a wild sub like a kneebar from Kron. However I think Charles can be smart here and do damage in the process. Jourdain by ground and pound TKO, elbows.

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, DEC
29-28x2 28-29 Split decision. fantastic fight I think Frevola gameplan is great here and frustrates Dober BUT gets hurt too much in the process in short bursts, giving Dober some moments to capitalize and switch the pace of fight.

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu, DEC
Could go either way, I will side with Kennedy improving his use of his reach, which might prove different then how Devin trained for. 29-28x2 30-27 Uni.

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, TKO, R1
Khaos is hungry and shows up. First round domination inside 3 minutes. Hooks to Ground and Pound.

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba, SUB, R3
Armbar in the late 3rd. I do think this is a great fight, however I feel as if Marina's game is starting to get figured out. Virna is always game, I think she wins going into the 3rd and locks up an armbar late.

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
I hate this pick because I want to side heavily with Parker as he has almost every intangible advantage. Braxton by KO huge hook 1st round.

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, SUB, R2
OH ****!!!! I think this is going to be a slightly dominant fight and I like Hawes. Ikram by Submission after a solid first round.

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Joseph Holmes, TKO, R2
I think Holmes game is improving, I like him after a sub loss vs Ribeiro post KO. He is wonky and is not as predictable as one might think. TKO Spinning body kick.

Note to gliese, I picked Ribeiro for first fight so according to my ongoing luck, Holmes is a lock

Bank on Sterling. This is an money. Countless of people here in the losing end of Cejudo.  They can only shake their head in apparent disappointment but money is gone

@Rah123 that' s true - with small budget you have to play parlays to feel that you can beat bookies and compensate losess.
Could you share aby good parlay which "must" hit ? Event with small odds?

Thanks I appreciate it.

I should probably just catch up on some sleep since I'm sick. I'll be in terrible shape tomorrow if I stay up all night with a fever. 

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
29-28 dec

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Aljamain Sterling, DEC
Cejudo lmao, one of the most overrated fighters in the sport. He was legit outclassed by Marlon Moraes until he gassed. And don't use the Moraes vs Sterling argument cuz it's irrelevant. He point is, Henry won't do the same thing to Aljo, but Aljo can definitely do a similar thing to Cejudo as Moraes before gassin. The difference is, Aljo throws more volume than Marlon but does not put as much power behind his strikes so yeah he won't be able to hurt Henry but it'll also be tougher for Henry to get to him because of his movement and reach. AND he won't gas as quickly as Moraes did, he should be able to jab Henry's face all night and kick his lead leg. Yeah you can argue Henry can push the pace, go for TD's and finish Aljo in the later rounds but the thing is, dude isn't very active when it comes to boxing. He mainly throw legkicks but when you move well, he's not as good at setting up his headstrkes. And even though he's a great wrestler, dude is one of the most overrated MMA grapplers. He can't control guys for ****, at the press conference he said he dominated Moraes from top, but when did it happen? When Moraes was hurt and gassed. Guess what, Merab Dvalishvili did the same thing and he's literally known for being a **** grappler when it comes to controlling guys. Other than that, Henry has shown a pretty mid top control skills. Not to mention, his wrestling pace isn't big either. He does not spam takedowns or anything. And if he does, he'll likely get reversed and Sterling mauls him from top position. Bye bye you fookin washed clown

Muhammad vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, TKO, R1
Bumlal sucks, he isn't an elite fighter. Dude got tagged multiple times against Brady so I think Burns catches him cuz he's a way better boxer and should also be able to kick his leg. Could knock him down and get a SUB after that as well.

Andrade vs. Yan
Xiaonan Yan, DEC
Although beating Mackenzie Dern isn't very impressive, Yan was able to survive the grappling moments, so logically she should be able to do it here as well. Andrade sucks, she's a punching bag who got outboxed by Erin fookin Blanchfield, the same who got outstruck by JJ Aldrich, who recently was dominated by Ariane Lipski lmao. But like seriously, if Yan isn't as worried about the TD's as she was against Dern, she should be able to easily outbox her. And even if she is, I still think it'll be close even with the potential TD's from Andrade.

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, DEC
Lopes sub or bust. He ain't winning that fight on short notice, although I think he most likely survives all three rounds. Evloev is really improved as a striker, he's a great wrestler and MMA grappler.

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Kron Gracie, SUB, R1
Picking Gracie has it's risks but besides layoff, I feel like this is a good matchup for him. Yeah you can say Charles>Washed Swanson but first off, Cub wasn't as washed as he is now AND he was a far worse matchup for Kron stylistically. His TDD was light years ahead of Charles's. Jourdain is hittable as well and easy to take down, his grappling sucks. I feel like Kron subs him if he isn't washed (Which is a big IF but I take the risk)

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R1
Frevola became a little bit overrated (Maybe not in this matchup but overall) after knocking out one of the worst fighters on the entire roster. Ottman Azaitar.... AKA Paddy Pimblett victim. Dober is pretty easy to take down so that's the path for Matt cuz he also has a better stamina of the two. But Drew is decent at getting back up and he's definitely a better striker, Frevola is just too hittable, he most likely dies.

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu, TKO, R1
Close one cuz Clark definitely made some improvements and he can be more active, have more control time in the clinch, gets some TD's. I feel like his top control is pretty average though and he's still hittable. Kennedy is big and versatile with his striking, and the thing with Clark is that he always panic shoots when he gets tagged, that's why his TD accuracy percantage isn't impressive. And he often rellies on his opponents being tired and him pushing the pace. Nzechukwu's cardio is good and shouldn't be a problem for him here.

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, TKO, R1
Safest pick of the card, Bedoya is like Paddy Pimblett defensively (Better offensively on the feet and maybe slightly better at rolling with shots but that's all) but not as good on the ground as the UK dude. He'll just ******* die here.

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, TKO, R2
I feel like Jandiroba can win the first round with grappling but then lose after gassing. She's too hittable.

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
Porter is fat and sucks. He can win because his opponent lacks the experience but I still think Smith is a better fighter. He most likely blitzes and gets the knockout W

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Phil Hawes, TKO, R1
Aliskerov is overrated as ****, he's an average fighter at best and Hawes is a terrible matchup for him unless he's washed after the injury. Phil should be able to defend the TD's and find the right timing with his strikes on the feet cuz overall he's a much better boxer and hits harder. Aliskerov has no counters for his weaknesses which are cardio, defense and chin. Mainly cuz Ikram is also not the toughest dude, he's hittable and he gasses, Hawes can even take him down later on.

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Joseph Holmes, SUB, R1
I feel like Holmes is just more technical and better on the ground. Should be able to get the TD's on the center, could be tougher for him against the fence though, but he can still just hold him there. On the ground he probably gets a SUB win.

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Aljamain Sterling, DecMy pick is based on that Aljo can win 3 rounds off of cejudo.  Short squat dudes with good anti wrestling traits are what Sterling does best. Cejudo is a squat power house with an endless gas tank, great wrestling, serviceable striking, who engages the fight with low kicks. Who does that remind you of? Aljo trains with that every single day. Merab might be the best bantamweight on the planet, and he is enough of a cejudo archetype that Sterling will be ready.  And ironically, they sound like meat ball eating NYC Neanderthals, but Longos camp has some of smartest game plans/ coaching you can ask for.
And cejudo is older and hasn’t stepped in the UFC ring in a UFC fight in a long time.  I think people don’t like Sterling, and that’s why Henry is heavily favored.
Should be very fun though. 

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, DEC
Evloev is a future contender, he should dominate this fight everywhere it goes.

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Kron Gracie, SUB, R1
Jourdain's grappling is not great, I think Gracie shocks a lot of people with a quick submission.

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R1
I think these boys slug it out, I think Dober wins the brawl and the fight late in the first.

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu, TKO, R2
Kennedy has looked great as of late, I think he stops Clark with pure volume late in the second.

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, TKO, R1
Khaos touches Bedoya's chin and the fight ends.

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
Rodriguez has great grappling defense and it should be enough to stop Jandiroba. Rodriguez should piece her up on the feet.

Porter vs. Smith
Parker Porter, DEC
Porter via classic low level heavyweight sloppy slugfest.

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, SUB, R1
Ikram is a stud, and Hawes turning around this quick after his injury last fight spells disaster for him.

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, TKO, R1
I think Holmes is going to look to take this fight to the ground, but I think Ribeiro drops him super early into the fight and finishes him.

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Sterling, DEC
I think a 3 year layoff is just a little too much to come back from against an elite bantamweight like Aljo. I like Aljos size and reach here a lot. I think his wrestling is competent enough to negate the massive advantage Cejudo normally has in that regard. Both guys are very difficult to hit historically but I really do think the biggest factor here will be the size. Aljo might be a bit of a weight bully but unfortunately for Cejudo, being a weight bully isn't illegal. Finally, while Cejudo went out with an impressive win and on a tremendous high note, people seem to be forgetting he beat a Dom Cruz that was coming off like a 4 year layoff.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Muhammad, DEC
Pretty close fight under normal circumstances but I think the recent camp and full 15 is going to effect Burns more than accepting this fight last minute will for Belal. Masvidal is still a tough fight for 15 minutes but I didn't think Burns looked incredible or anything in that fight. My biggest reasoning for picking Belal is I think he can wrestle with Burns no problem and I feel like Burns relies on that quite a bit. Belal also might be the more technical striker at this point too. So unless Belal is woefully unprepared for this fight due to the short notice nature, I like his chances over 5 rounds. I have absolutely no clue why people think are so confident hes going to finish Belal here. Everyone was saying he was going to do the same to Masvidal and he never once came close to finishing that fight. I dont see him getting a finish here either against a better opponent despite there being 2 extra rounds. 

Andrade vs. Xiaonan
Xiaonan, DEC
I actually think Xiaonan is pretty good. I think her big advantage here will be her speed and footwork. Andrade is going to land some big shots and I see these rounds being hard to score. Andrade might not land as often because Yan is pretty crafty but her shots will be more damaging. Yan is a pretty good striker but she's definitely looking to win a point fight here. I dont think Andrade will land clean enough and just put Yan out but she could still win if Yan is really wearing the damage she's able to accumulate throughout. Very good chance this fight is a split decision. 

Evloev vs. Lopes
Evloev, KO/TKO
Good on Lopes to step up. Lopes' jiu jitsu is legit and Evloev is a smart fighter so I think he'll be doing a lot of safe grappling. I do however think hes looking to make a statement after he himself took this fight late only to have the ranked opponent he was looking to beat get injured. I think Evloev will be determined to get a finish and while I could see him eventually finding Lopes back and maybe choking him out, I think its more likely he uses his wrestling to try and find a finish by ground and pound.

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Gracie, DEC
I've never really thought Jourdain was that good although he's very fun to watch. I think Gracie just walks him down and out points him or eventually subs him. Jourdain can have moments on the feet but hes just too inconsistent of a fighter. Hes got plenty of heart but I think Gracie can match him basically anywhere despite the long layoff. I really liked Gracies comments about his last fight where he essentially said that he learned the hard way that you can't leave the fight in the hands of judges. I won't be surprised at all if he subs Jourdain but I see Jourdain keeping this close and just ultimately losing on the scorecards. 

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Aljamain Sterling, TKO, R2
I think Aljo dominates. Backpacks him all of round 1, then during round 2 gets a TKO with some back mount GnP.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Gilbert Burns, DEC
Burns is better in the standup and better in the grappling department as well. I think Belal gets entirely outclassed.

Andrade vs. Yan
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
Andrade should put on a striking clinic here. Don't see how Xiaonan can win this one.

Aliskerov 
Braxton smith by finish 
Drew Dober 
Nzechukwu
Muhammad/burns over 3.5 
Sterling/cejudo over 3.5 

Smith  vs Porter
Braxton Smith , TKO, R1
Another first round finish by " monster"

I love smith 1st round KO. Get Parker fat ass porter out of the ufc