UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@DCpredictions Nope. I'm banking on Gracie's insane pressure and Jourdain's bad takedown defence. Going back to his fight against Cub, you could see that even Cub got taken down and clinched a couple of times. Jourdain doesn't have the ground game or as good as Cub in the clinch. Just look at Jourdain's last few fights and you'll see what I mean. Wood just moved up to FW and was undersized when he fought Jourdain and even he could take Jourdain down a couple of times. Gracie just needs to get Jourdain down once and I think it's a wrap. 

Jourdain could very well be able to KO Gracie, but I still think it's very unlikely. Kron ate Cub's hardest shots and kept walking him down regardless. So banking on a Jourdain KO is definitely a risky play imo. Just my two cents.

I doubt he gets chined by ikram tho, I just don’t see ikram getting takedowns that easily and hawes does have the better stand up of the two 

Why do I not see my prediction's on the right when i'm on a fighters page? I have to .....omg, who tf did that? That's f'ing stupid. 

Holmes vs ribeiro, I think Ill rather pick the ref

Duane Ludwig, Bang Muay Thai coach (longtime striking coach of TJ Dillashaw)
 
:Prediction:I've got Sterling stopping Cejudo, let's say in the fourth round. Ground and pound TKO. I think Aljo will go strength for strength with Cejudo and actually outwrestle and outgrapple him. He can really squeeze -- he's strong. I was really impressed with his control on the ground.

Fair enough nox I dont have a dog in the race but I just don't think jourdain slowing down is going to be that big of a factor.

@Kuma I think you have the prediction as hidden, check the settings and you can change it. 😉 

Braxton Smith about to let so many people down lol Porter isn’t that good but he has the experience to control this fight, I can’t believe people are heavy on Smith here. He could win but it’s a one punch chance, if it gets passed the 1st round Smith is toast

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Fight could go either way but I see Porter schooling Smith but if Smith was to land a wild hook I wouldn’t be surprised either

Already out of the house for the day and trying to conserve my phone battery so I can try to post some picks from the event, but slowly gonna post my pics as I type all my final thoughts out. 

Tricky card. Lots of live dogs IMO. Good luck gents!

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Porter vs Smith
Smith, KO/TKO
Very tempted to be contrarian here, fade Tapology and go with the way more experienced fighter. However, I am genuinely impressed by the limited tape there is of Smith despite the poor QOC. Im also a little perplexed Porter came in a little lighter for this fight. I can only imagine hes going for a speed and movement advantage here and I think its going to backfire. Despite being built like a fullback, Smith seems to have a pretty high degree of athleticism himself. He moves pretty well and has great hand speed for a guy that comes in at the heavyweight limit. I think Smith eventually lands something fierce and absolutely flattens Porter like he has everyone else that's tried to stand in front of him recently. Will of course be very interesting if Porter can survive the first round, but I actually think all the moving hes planning to do will probably just make him tired and more susceptible to getting hit. I think just because Smith hasn't had a fight last longer then 3 minutes doesn't mean he can't fight at least 2 solid rounds. Finally, I think its very fair to mention Porter was knocked cold only 3 months ago to the day. Thats really not a lot of recovery time.

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Aliskerov, DEC
I think Aliskerov is giving off shiny new toy vibes. This is closer to a 50/50 fight where I have to edge Aliskerov because hes well rounded and is a great finisher. I worry about the quality of competition and activity level. Hawes for all his faults has been fighting pretty good competition and is pretty active. I think Hawes will make a good showing of himself in front of his home crowd and will avoid getting finished like most probably think, but I see him dropping two rounds here.

Holmes vs. Ribiero
Ribeiro, KO/TKO
As a rule I pretty much never pick fighters who miss weight, but I do wonder if this was an intentional miss by Holmes. Ribeiro is built like a LHW and I could see him having a nice strength advantage against Holmes who has a much more slender build. My problem with this fight is I don't think either guy really uses any of their strengths very well. Ribeiro is pretty much a brawler with no grappling or wrestling whatsoever. Hes got a great frame but has no idea how to use it. Holmes doesn't use his length well at all and also isn't a great wrestler, which greatly limits his grappling skills. As bad as I think Ribeiro is, I don't think Holmes can straight up out strike him and the weight miss, intentional or not, makes me question Holmes tank for this fight. I cannot stress enough how low confidence this pick is. Both guys are arguably borderline UFC level. 

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Henry Cejudo, DEC
hedge, kinda. henry is likely the better technical striker and has more power, but he's definitely at a range disadvantage. not sure aljo will win off range alone though and he's been taken down by lesser wrestlers in the past.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Belal Muhammad, DEC
i think the opportunity means a lot more to belal here and 5 rounds probably benefits him.

Andrade vs. Yan
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
andrade's striking should be able to score in between td attempts, though it is very possible that yan has the movement to avoid the bullrushes.

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, DEC
respect to the kid for stepping up on short notice, but he's gonna need some huge early shot to stop movsar from pressing.

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Kron Gracie, SUB, R2
semi-hedge. i enjoy jourdain, but i feel like he overcommits and kron is gonna be waiting for an opportunity to close the distance.

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R2
drew is probably sharper and i think i trust his chin more? totally possible that frevola breaks out the grappling for this one though.

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu, DEC
i'm pretty bad with both of these guys, but i feel more comfortable being wrong with kennedy than hoping for any sort of consistency from clark.

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, DEC
being an older debut has me a little skeptical of bedoya and his competition has been questionable to some extent.

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Marina Rodriguez, DEC
marina is likely the better striker and i think she'll be able to stay off her back for most of the fight.

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
parker could win this in the clinch and with cardio, but i'll go with the early power instead.

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, TKO, R2
hawes is inconsistent so i'm just gonna take the russian guy.

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, TKO, R2
holmes just hasn't impressed me aside from his frame.

@FallenAngel I disagree with most of your picks especially Sterling beating Cejudo.

Sterling vs. Cejudo
Sterling, DEC
Younger, bigger, stronger, longer and trains with Merab who's a faaaar more persistent grappler than Cejudo. Cejudo will primarily box, but Sterling can neutralize that with persistent fence works and back attacks. And if Sterling uses straight shots he can really work the range advantage. Cejudo's a crafty vet but Sterling legitimately beat dudes like Yan and Sandhagen. He has a good chance here.

Muhammad vs. Burns
Burns, TKO, R4
Belal has a path to victory resisting any grappling and popping Burns with straight shots all night. But Burn's IQ is getting better and he knows damn well Belal has nothing for him on the ground. His looping shots will result in getting popped a lot with straight shots, but against the fence Belal will wither under Burns power. He can't wrestlef*ck Burns the way he did Luque and eventually his limited options will cost him.

Andrade vs. Yan
Jéssica Andrade, SUB, R2
Andrade struggled against the best grappler in the division on a weeks notice. But Yan lacks the ground options and Andrade is well prepared. She's got real KO power and can push a pace against Yan for 3 rounds, and she's always looking to finish the fight. I feel a club and sub is very possible here.

Evloev vs. Lopes
Movsar Evloev, SUB, R2
Justin Bieber isn't keeping Evloev off him for 3 rounds on a short notice fight. Evloev has something to prove and a short notice, non UFC level opponent is the guy to sub.

Gracie vs. Jourdain
Kron Gracie, SUB, R2
Jourdain may be able to deny the grappling for a round, but 2 rounds? Probably not. The Gracie odds are pretty tasty tbh, especially by sub which is surely his most likely path to victory? Jourdain's W's haven't aged all that well, nor have his losses. Feels like a setup for a Gracie strangle.

Dober vs. Frevola
Drew Dober, TKO, R2
Frevola's on the wrong side of a record KO loss, and has been KO'd before that too. Dober has KO'd the last 6 dudes he's beaten. Frevola will be like a dear in the headlights rushing for takedowns and then BOOP, Dober KO. Frevola's looking better so I'll give him the respect to last a round... But if Dober denies Frevola's wrestling with ease it's nighty night in R1.

Clark vs. Nzechukwu
Kennedy Nzechukwu, KO, R2
Ugh, Kennedy seems like an obvious choice but he's lost some ropey fights. But I'll back him because he's massive, tough to takedown and Clark falls off a cliff when he's the nail. He won't survive the onslaught if he can't pin Kennedy against the cage - and I don't believe he will.

Williams vs. Bedoya
Khaos Williams, DEC
Khaos often finds a way to make fights close and I hate it. But he's a tough dude to debut against. I'm not convinced this is the lock everyone thinks it is but Khaos should win.

Porter vs. Smith
Braxton Smith, TKO, R1
Porky Pig gets smashed. If Daukaus smashes you and Tafa just finished smashing you, Braxton will probably smash you too. And nice odds again.

Aliskerov vs. Hawes
Ikram Aliskerov, SUB, R2
Hawes looks like the worlds best fighter until he gets hit. He's taken a lot of damage and Ikram is really. Beating up 5 foot Deron Winn was definitely funny/shocking but it didn't prove much. And he usually gets finished when loses, so I can see it here too against a hungry debuting Russian.

Holmes vs. Ribeiro
Claudio Ribeiro, KO, R2
Holmes is on his way out of the UFC. He's a worse Jamie Pickett and that's not a compliment to Pickett.

The thing I will say about this title fight is despite the lack of interest in the athletes personalities, this is a very high level match-up. I expect Henry to win, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

Williams vs. Bedoya
Rolando Bedoya
Oh eddj oh

Rodriguez vs. Jandiroba
Virna Jandiroba, SUB, R3
Pull to oh to de

@hlgh Twitter , Facebook , Youtube are not working here due to slow internet )