UFC on ABC 3: Ortega vs. Rodriguez

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Brian Ortega, SUB, R4
Fantastic fight

Waterson-Gomez vs. Lemos
Amanda Lemos, DEC
This would be the fight to bet the underdog. Lemos is way overvalued. The Ruiz stoppage was early.

Li vs. Salikhov
Jingliang Li, TKO, R3
Muslim better spark him early and that hasn't happened to the Leech yet

Schnell vs. Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji, TKO, R1
Torn on this one from a rooting standpoint. Fan of both guys.

Murphy vs. Tate
Miesha Tate, DEC
Unless Miesha has lost something, just different levels

Soriano vs. Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R1
This fight will be like transporting nitroglycerine in a metal wheeled wagon over rocky terrain

Simón vs. Shore
Jack Shore, TKO, R2
Well at least he doesn't have the mullet anymore. I think Shore finds his off button

Algeo vs. Burns
Herbert Burns, SUB, R1
Bad matchup. I think Burns is much better on the ground so Algeo's only realistic shot is to weather the storm and win late. Don't see it happening

Jacoby vs. Jung
Da Un Jung, DEC
VERY interesting fight

Grant vs. Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus, DEC
MW with kickboxing experience vs. a WW KO or bust machine

Penne vs. Ducote
Jessica Penne, SUB, R2
Can an 11 year age advantage overcome better experience and strength where the younger fighter has historically struggled?

Penne vs Ducote
Emily Ducote, Dec
A veteran dog against the newcomer. Emily Ducote is the real deal. She struggled when she fought top caliber fighters inside the Bellator cage, but that was largely due to inexperience and a lack of maturity as a fighter. Ducote has found a home now in the strawweight division and will be a name to keep an eye on for the next several years.

P. S. Penne has hot body and sexy legs!! 

Soriano vs Lungiambula 
Punahele Soriano 
I'm not sure TKO or desicion, but I'm betting for Soriano.  In stand-up striking, Soriano has a clear advantage over Lungiambula, according to key metrics.

That's my  parley tonight!!! 

Miesha Tate maybe he will win, but i don't trust it.
Stoltzfus 0-3 UFC. I think Grant (-115). Nice odd 


Burgos vs Jourdain
Shane Burgos to win 
Tricky match. Burgos is in an all-out barnburner. He has fallen short at times, but this weekend he will wind up on the proper end of a highlight reel. 


Waterson vs Lemos 
Amanda Lemos , DEC 
No questions!!! Waterson certainly holds the experience edge in this fight. However, Amanda Lemos will come out of this bout victorious. Lemos’s strength and physical advantages will be the difference here, and she will score a much-needed victory over a prominent name in Waterson.

If you think Simon is, "chinny", because he got KO'd by Urijah, you're absolutely insane.

The guy is battle tested and has definitely been hit outside of ONE KO that you're clearly letting clout your judgement. Have you watched any of his other fights? I suggest you do before saying something so ridiculous. If Shore KOs him, I'll eat my words gladly, but that's just absurd to insinuate. 

Being impressed by that Ducote KO and calling her a, "badass", says a lot too I guess. Clearly you see something and it doesn't leave your mind. I suggest you watch more of her fights as well and tell me where you see this, "badass"...

A lot of the reason ducotes record is so ugly is because she was in the wrong weight class. In bellator, all her fights were at 125, now she’s gone down to 115 where she’s having more success. She’s 7-2 at 115 and 4-4 at 125

* Edited at 07.16.2022, 7:47 AM ET *

Grant moving up a weight class and giving off that fake tough look at staredowns makes me think he gets sent to the shadow realm. 
Stoltfuz by KO/TKO +1000 or by sub +350

Alot of love for Algeo and I get it, but Algeo is a decisionator and Burns will be looking for a finish as long as this one goes.  Burns +169, Burns by sub +350.

Ok, I've been -20euros over the last couple of weeks, since I've been posting my bets tips here, which were not such good tips, but I'll carry on because I know my overall balance is pretty good.

Penne vs Ducoté

Ducoté looked amazing in her last 2 fights I checked whereas Penne seems to just carry on for the money without any will to turn things around, I even think Ducoté can finish but I'll stick with the Ducoté win only at 1.64.

D.Grant vs Stoltzfus

50/50 fight with two guys I don't think much of. At least Grant seems to have some athletic advantage, he may have a better corner and team as well and he's the underdog, which is always the obvious bet on a 50/50 fight. Grant to win at 2.09

D.Jacoby vs D.Jung

Pretty hard to bet, I feel Jacoby has found his mma game over the years and I don't really know when it's gonna be stopped even though I feel it will be sooner than latter. But Jung tend to engage in a technical point stiking game which suits Jacoby, so I think Dustin may get the win here, + he's the underdog now at 2.08 but very close fight on papaer.

Algeo vs H.Burns

It's always nice when a guy has a 2 year layoff and turns out to be the underdog because he may have worked on an area his opponent doesn't expect. Bare in mind that Burns was supposed to face Askhabov, probably expecting a stand up affair. Burns definetly has the upper hand on the ground and if he's prepared to strike, with the takedown threat he may have all the tools here for a success, then again being the underdog. He also looked more muscular at the weight in which may help getting a clinch against the cage takedown. Burns by decision is what I feel like, but I'll bet on just Burns win at a very nice 2.76

R.Simon vs J.Shore

What a fight! This is the one match I'm looking forward the most here because we'll learn something very valuable as far as who's gonna crack at the top of the bantamweight next. Shore is undefeated but felt at times he didn't have that much margin, but it's all about getting better at his age, getting comfortable as well. Simon has been very intense and impressive over his last couple of fights. To me, stylistically it's pretty good for Simon, he may be more powerfull and threatening with the takedowns, as the underdog, I think it's fair to bet on him winning. Though I'm pretty high on Shore as a 135lbs GSP type of fighter who's well rounded and pick the right tools to get the win against a certain type of opponent. But yeah, Simon at 2.25

Soriano vs Lugiambula

Lugiambula tends to either gas or be too cautious while still being a little too wide open for Soriano, who's a tough, durable dude with some puching power and nice tehcnique I think the Soriano by sub or KO at 2.35 was great, but I'll go with a parlay of Soriano  winning along with Lemos later on at 1.45 for this part and 1.97 overall.

L;Murphy vs M.Tate

50/50 fight, I feel it will a standing snoozfest, but Murphy tends to have more volume and as a strong underdog there are no reason not to try her 2.71 line, Murphy win.

S.Burgos vs C.Jourdain

Ok so the ufc is looking for a banger here and I think we'll have it. If I'm correct, it will be the big cage which may help Jourdain avoiding the pressure, using his footwork and use more kicks. That's the slight edge I needed as I think Burgos deserves to be the favorite but I feel his line is a little too low for such a close fight, so I'll go Jourdain at 2.41

M.Schnell vs Sumudaerji

Bad matchup for Schnell, even if his line is very attractive, I don't realy see him getting a takedown or be able to dominate standing, so yeah Sumu at 1.42 (parlay with Lemos, 1.92 overall).

the leech vs Salikhov

Nice booking here as the durable Li may weather the storm and dominate toward the end the russian kung fu master. I was about to bet on Li but checking a couple of Salikhov fight, I thought he may actually avoid the itensity and try to smartly outwork Li, and I think he can, so I'll go for Salikhov to win at 1.70, let's hope he will follow this gameplan.

Waterson vs Lemos

I've put togtehr two parlays with Lemos winning, so basically if she losses, I'll lose them both. But to be honest, I don't really see how Waterson can win unless something weird happens or if Lemos makes a big mistake. She just better everywhere, excep maybe for experience, but it won't be a decisive factor here anyway. Lemos for the win at 1.35 (2 parlays, 1 with Soriano winning , 2 with Sumu winning).

B.Ortega vs Yair


It's hard not to pick Ortega who has been way more impressive in his last couple of wins than Yair. I mean, a couple of month after Yair loss to Edgar, Ortega won with a wonderful KO, then Yair won with that elbow vs Korean Zombie but I think he was actually losing that fight, Ortega gave a masterclass to that same guy... I would dare to say Ortega would have probably finish Stephens where Yair only won a nice decision... with all the injuries of Yair and Ortega having the options on the ground or in the clinch, I couldn't see myself bet on Yair, even though he looked really good vs Holloway. So yeah, Ortega to win at1.71.


Let's hope this time my bet balance is at least +10 euros, but I hav to say I feel pretty good about this one, especially as it starts a 5 pm in France, just perfect time but very rare for UFC viewings. Nice card as well, there are several intriguing fights and some fireworks set, it should be a good one. Enjoy everybody.

* Edited at 07.16.2022, 8:30 AM ET *

Algeo vs. Burns
Bill Algeo, DEC
A very, very close fight. I'm siding with Algeo due to him having spent more time in the Octagon, and that time being far more recent than in Burns's case. If Burns gets a hold of him, he should ragdoll, but I think Algeo's striking will be enough to get the job done in a razor close fight. Low confidence in this.

u Jessica Penne's husband or something lil bro? 

Took a little while but I have finally made my picks post weigh in. Changed a few from my initial thoughts.

1. Ducote Decision
Ducote is younger and faster. Better on the feet by far with a potential for a finish. She is a good wrestler and can keep it standing which should negate Penne's only real path to victory. And she is also a new black belt who trains with the Gracie affiliates so she should be able to stay safe from submissions even if it hits the ground. She looked focused and stone cold at weigh in's and seeing she has fought in Bellator and Invicta I do not think the debut will overawe her. Pretty confident in this pick now, also I was picking the first 2 fights wrong for almost the last 3 months, but that changed last week and I am going to take that as a sign that things have changed.

2. Stoltzfus Submission
Grant really only has 1 way to win, and that is a KO in the first 7.5 minutes. But the chances of that happening up a weight class, at his age, for the first time is unlikely. His volume is too low to win a decision and if he does not get the KO I think Stoltzfus will slowly take over, use his wrestling and grappling and potentially get a late finish by submission or decision. Grant has been taken down in almost all his fights were any decent wrestler was involved and that's almost cetrain to happen here. Stoltzfus seems to always have a mental lapse in the last round which gets him submitted against better grapplers, but there is no risk of that here. Reasonably confident here, the main worry being that Stotzfus makes another critical error and gets caught brawling.

3. Jacoby Decision
I think a lot of people are on Jung, and I really think Jacoby is the side here. He is obviously a high level striker and should be better than Jung on the feet. Sure Jung has some power, but is he really going to KO Jacoby? Anything is possible but I don't think so. Jacoby was quite compromised with knee injuries his last fight so did not throw any kicks, but still won by out boxing a really good boxer in Oleksiejczuk. And I think a lot of people are wowed by Jung taking down William Knight so many times. Well the problem there is that he used the same trip to do it, again and again, thats not going to work on Jacoby. Also his get up game is good as we saw against Cutelaba and Jung is not that good at controlling on the ground or doing good ground and pound. Maybe this fight will be closer than I think, but I really feel Jacoby is the side here.

4.Algeo KO
Again I do not understand the love fo Burns. He is not a prospect. He is a middle aged man who fights every few years and gasses out after round 1 usually. I expect this fight to go like the Ricardo Lamas fight where Algeo fought off take down after takedown and when he was on the ground he would scramble and get up. He is a good black belt so I don't see Burns submitting him and on the feet Algeo will out point and out volume him short of a hail mary KO from Burns. After R2 I think Algeo will clearly begin to outcardio and outstrike Burns who will be tired from wrestling/grappling and I could even see a late finish for Algeo.

5. Shore Decision
Tough one to predict. I think both are really really good. My worry with my picks is that Ricky will just chain takedown after takedown and Shore gets tired. However I think at least for the first 2 rounds Shore has good enough wrestling and grappling to either keep it upright or get up from the ground. Also at the weigh in's Ricky looked absolutely horrible, drained and unsteady and I feel he could get tired too. Shore will be better in the striking dept and was good enough to keep it equal with Timur Valiev. I think Shore could win either a decision or a late finish and Ricky can only get a decision win. After the weigh in's I am a lot more confident in picking Shore. Also my conspiracy theory of the day, why is Shore on this card and not the UFC London card as an undefeated prospect? It's obvious the UFC wants him to win and they are definitely promoting UK talent recently with a big push. My guess is that they want a less known UK fighter to win ahead of the UK card to firstly get him better known to the US audience and then also by him winning give a positive momentum to the UK PPV sales in a time where PPV sales are not good. Maybe it's a stretch but it makes business sense to me.

6. Soriano KO
To me Soriano is the better fighter. I know Dalcha looks scary AF, but he has not really finished anyone. If it gets out of round 1 then his power drops and his cardio is suspect though he can go 3 rounds. Not that Soriano has much better cardio and he is at a reach disadvantage but I suspect he will do better in the later rounds than Dalcha. Also I know Soriano got taken down repeatedly by Maximov, but that is Maximov. And he was actually doing really well with getting up until he seemingly injured his leg during the fight. He is a D3 wrestler from what I have heard is a really good wrestling program and like Dalcha he is a skilled Judoka. Overall I think Soriano takes it and short of getting caught in round 1 I am pretty confident here.


Main card picks coming up next!

I think people on here are giving too much respect to Jacoby, and underestimating Jung. Yeah yeah, he's a decent kickboxer. Let's see how he looks on the mat.

@Rusty, for one round though, Burns looks like a man on fire. And Algeo starts slow. Nobody on gods green eart wants to pick Burns by decisions. But you have to admit he has a good chance in the first 5.

jacoby`s just %51 he ain`t %70 or nothing

Not saying Da Jung is a world beater, but he is younger, taller, stronger and he could back Jacoby against the fence and land the elbows he loves. It's MMA anything can happen.

Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Brian Ortega, SUB, R3
Man... What a tough pick... I'll take Ortega....

Waterson-Gomez vs. Lemos
Amanda Lemos, DEC
Hmm.... Gimme Lemos...

Li vs. Salikhov
Jingliang Li, DEC
Gimme Li.

Schnell vs. Sumudaerji
Sumudaerji, TKO, R2
Preety good chance Schell could get rocked here....

Burgos vs. Jourdain
Shane Burgos, DEC
I like Burgos here.

Murphy vs. Tate
Miesha Tate, DEC
Gimme Tate.....

Soriano vs. Lungiambula
Punahele Soriano, TKO, R1
I think Puna finds another quick night in the office.

Simón vs. Shore
Ricky Simón, DEC
Gimme Simon.

Algeo vs. Burns
Bill Algeo, DEC
Gimme Algeo.

Jacoby vs. Jung
Dustin Jacoby, DEC
Tough one to call. I'll take Jacoby.

Grant vs. Stoltzfus
Dustin Stoltzfus, DEC
Ooof. Loser goes home. Gimme Dustin.

Penne vs. Ducote
Emily Ducote, DEC
Gimme Ducote.

Wow this is early what's the reason 

Waterson-Gomez vs. Lemos
I tap Amanda Lemos at -325. She has a brilliant stutter step and a formal facebuster. Lemos will nationalize the unthinkable. No doubt!

Algeo vs. Burns
I am enamored with Bill Algeo at -210. He has an ironic anaconda and an automatic sleeper slam. Algeo can climb the canvas. Oss!

Schnell vs. Sumudaerji
I select Sumudaerji at -275. He has a judicious ankle lock and a bodacious double wrist lock. Sumudaerji should quench the senses.

Ortega vs. Rodriguez
I am taking Brian Ortega at -170. He has a proficient check hook and a nasty hiza guruma. Ortega ought to fuel the canvas.

Soriano vs. Lungiambula
I take Punahele Soriano at -230. He has a brackish armbar and a venomous gas tank and also a fabulous piledriver. Soriano can neutralize the crowd noise.

Simón vs. Shore
I feel disposed to Jack Shore at -155. He has a quixotic stutter step. Shore won't bother the crowd noise. Mark my words!

Li vs. Salikhov
I like Muslim Salikhov at -165. He has a yappy stutter step. Salikhov must cheat the canvas.

Grant vs. Stoltzfus
I am enamored with Dwight Grant at -135. He has a yappy hane goshi and an automatic spinning back fist and also a homemade gogoplata. Grant isn't about to employ the masterpiece.

Penne vs. Ducote
I select Emily Ducote at -150. She has a judicious brainbuster. Ducote can grapple the achievement.

Burgos vs. Jourdain
I am obsessed with Shane Burgos at -170. He has a formal demeanor. Burgos can drop the achievement.

Murphy vs. Tate
I am sniffing Miesha Tate at -205. She has an original hiza guruma and a nasty indian deathlock and also a homemade full nelson. Tate can coach the senses.

1. Ortega Sub
Ortega is not getting KOd. And at some point in 25 minutes this is hitting the ground. When it does....

2. Lemos Dec
Watterson must be close to retiring and her new physique will still not be enough to grapple Lemos consistently I feel. I think her volume is not enough to tire out Lemos who will win the first 2 rounds.

3. Salikhov Dec
Closest fight on the card for me. But I think Salikhov has very good takedown defence and on the feet he should be more technical than Li. Main worry for me is that he did not look good in the wiegh ins and Li was a lot bigger. But I still think he will have enough in the tank to win this. Not confident though.

4. Burgos Dec
Burgos is one of my most confident picks. Better striking, volume, wrestling (which I think he may use) and cardio. I think he takes this fairly dominantly as I can't see Jourdain getting a finish here. Also Burgos will be home town for the judges.

5. Tate Decision
THis is a setup spot for Tate who the UFC desperately want to promote, especially after her Big Brother win. I guarantee they gave her a list of names and she picked our Murphy as the one she wants to fight. She should be bigger, stronger, faster and have better grappling and even striking than Murphy, who essentially is a soccer mum who picked up MMA late in her life.


Good luck everyone!