Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza

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Tapology
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07.17.2023 | 12:34 PM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 10.14.2023 at 04:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN+
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Brendan Fitzgerald, Michael Bisping, Dominick Cruz
  • Ring Announcer: Joe A. Martinez
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Michael Bisping
  • MMA Bouts: 11
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Edson Barboza   defeats   Sodiq Yusuff   via Decision, Unanimous   5 Rounds, 25:00 Total Bout Page
Viviane Araujo   defeats   Jennifer Maia   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Jonathan Martinez   defeats   Adrian Yanez   via KO/TKO, Leg Kick   2:26 Round 2 of 3, 7:26 Total Bout Page
Michel Pereira   defeats   Andre Petroski   via KO/TKO, Punch to Ground and Pound   1:06 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Christian Rodriguez   defeats   Cameron Saaiman   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Darren Elkins   defeats   TJ Brown   via Submission, Rear Naked Choke   2:23 Round 3 of 3, 12:23 Total Bout Page
Tainara Lisboa   defeats   Ravena Oliveira   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Terrance McKinney   defeats   Brendon Marotte   via KO/TKO, Knee to Ground and Pound   0:20 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Melissa Tonya Mullins   defeats   Irina Alekseeva   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Chris Gutierrez   defeats   Alatengheili Alateng   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Emily Ducote   defeats   Ashley Yoder   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 8

tianofcreation
tianofcreation
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10.12.2023 | 10:49 PM ET

Parlay killer forecast

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 3080th

just released another parlay killer forecast on the substack. Who do you guys think will be the biggest parlay killers on the card? 

"https://mmawise.substack.com/"

shaneb90
shaneb90
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10.13.2023 | 1:36 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 200 Points   |   Tied for 4105th

@tianofcreation 
Gutierrez, lisboa, or I think alot of people may parlay saimann cause he's super hyped up rn but I think c rod is a level above him everywhere 
AxaFin
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10.13.2023 | 2:39 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 4 of 6 Winners, 4 Perfect, 325 Points   |   Tied for 3546th

Rodriguez vs. Saaiman
Christian Rodriguez, DEC
CRod is still underrated Let's fookin go

"I've lost 7000€ on Jared Cannonier."

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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10.13.2023 | 2:43 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 5 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 1675th

It annoys me how a few picking podcast says Edson weakness is wresler, when in fact a majority of his loses are to stikers, He’s only loses to wresler are to Bryce  Mitchel, Khabib and Kevin Lee, But Edson has 8 other loses 

* Edited at 10.13.2023, 2:45 AM ET *

"Quack quack quack"

AxaFin
AxaFin
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10.13.2023 | 2:46 AM ET

Predictions: 4 of 6 Winners, 4 Perfect, 325 Points   |   Tied for 3546th

DamienHandel420 Isn't Barboza's only weakness people who can create tons of pressure? I think he has decent defensive wrestling given enough space.

"I've lost 7000€ on Jared Cannonier."

DamienHandel420
DamienHandel420
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10.13.2023 | 4:08 AM ET

Axafins

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 5 Perfect, 465 Points   |   Tied for 1675th

Yes, Pressure is what usually beat Edson, but you notice it usually not done by Wresling. T-ferg, Gateche, Cowboy, Felder, Giga and Michael Johnson all beat him with stand up, 

"Quack quack quack"

BGBets
BGBets
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10.13.2023 | 4:30 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 3 of 4 Winners, 1 Perfect, 175 Points   |   Tied for 4141st

Maia vs. Araujo
Jennifer Maia, DEC
Maia wins decisions, and Araujo is more prone to decision losses. Araujo has not had any finishes since early in her career so I don't expect her to start changing that now

TruDawgz
TruDawgz
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10.13.2023 | 5:20 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 390 Points   |   Tied for 2767th

Yusuff vs. Barboza
Sodiq Yusuff, TKO, R4
Confidence: Low | Bet: Bet your side | This is a pick em fight if i ever have seen one. Yusuff is up & coming while Barboza is the vet here this is gonna be a striking clinic by both i believe Barboza's Age & carido will catch up too him as the fight goes on though. Give me Yusuff due to speed advantage & age

Maia vs. Araujo
Jennifer Maia, DEC
Confidence: High | Bet: Maia ML, Over 2.5 Rounds & Maia By Decision | Maia smokes Araujo here, Araujo is coming to the end of her road and Maia is getting better & better. Yes their both older but Maia is in a way better spot, looked way better her last fight & Maia has fought & beat better girls then Araujo, Maia all day here!

Martinez vs. Yanez
Adrian Yanez, TKO, R2
Confidence: Low | This is gonna be another great fight, Another striker vs striker i believe Yanez will have more volume & power then Martinez in this fight. Yanez is coming off a KO loss so he might be hesitant at first but i see him pouring it on Martinez late

nived503
nived503
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10.13.2023 | 5:34 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 9 of 11 Winners, 7 Perfect, 700 Points   |   Tied for 14th with 2 others

Martinez vs. Yanez
Adrian Yanez, DEC
Wish both could win.

Pereira vs. Petroski
Michel Pereira, TKO, R1
I'm still betting petroski sub/dec.

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, TKO, R1
Lets get the KO and finish him two different ways. PAUSE

Elkins vs. Brown
Darren Elkins, SUB, R3
WAR

Lisboa vs. Oliveira
Tainara Lisboa, DEC
too wide.

Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili
Chris Gutierrez, TKO, R1
Probably decision, but rooting for the Chris KO

Yoder vs. Ducote
Emily Ducote, DEC
fun...........

"Whole Lotta Jamie Mullarkey "

Griffo420
Griffo420
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10.13.2023 | 5:55 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 415 Points   |   Tied for 2424th

Gutierrez & +500 for finish?? Surely this is worth a decent punt, there has to be value on this line. Thoughts you tapology demons? 
*****_swaggins
*****_swaggins
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10.13.2023 | 6:26 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 2 of 4 Winners, 2 Perfect, 175 Points   |   Tied for 4157th

Yusuff vs. Barboza
Sodiq Yusuff, TKO, R3
Yusuff via TKO.

Martinez vs. Yanez
Adrian Yanez, TKO
Yanez via KO/TKO. Fun fight

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, SUB, R1
Edgar via KO/TKO.

McKinney vs. Marotte
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
Terrance via KO

Yoder vs. Ducote
Emily Ducote, DEC
Emily via Dec. Yoder is old

unoshowtenuno
unoshowtenuno
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10.13.2023 | 7:14 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 7 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 415 Points   |   Tied for 2381st

Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili
Chris Gutierrez, TKO, R1
Alatengheili is no slouch. He's a rough and tumble style wrestle-boxer, not unlike many of his other Chinese countrymen. On paper, he'll have the advantage in the punching power and wrestling. However, I do think this is a step down in competition for Gutierrez; his striking is clearly superior, and Alatengheili is inconsistent in deploying his wrestling game. While I do see this fight possibly being closer than the odds suggest, Chris should be able to pull Alatengheili into low kicks and knees all night. If it ends early, I wouldn't be surprised if it's off a big counter knee from Guiterrez. If not, Chris should be able to comfortably get a decision.

Yoder vs. Ducote
Emily Ducote, DEC
Yoder is a tricky grappler who can make fights ugly. With that said, she's 35, 8-8 and 1-4 in her last five. Ducote lacks the reach and height, but she's ostensibly the better striker and boasts a solid TDD %. Ashley lacks the wrestling to reliably deploy her grappling, and her weak striking renders her reach advantage useless. Yoder does her best work in scrambles, especially if she can get the back, but that's essentially her only avenue to victory. I see Ducote using her tight boxing to fend off the awkward grappling of Yoder.


* Edited at 10.13.2023, 7:24 AM ET *

"We are all one"

MMANickster
MMANickster
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10.13.2023 | 8:49 AM ET

Predictions: 0 of 0 Winners, 0 Perfect, 0 Points   |   Tied for 4381st

Good match ups ....should be some easy money out there for us fight nerds 🤓 
Grogers70426
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10.13.2023 | 9:41 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 400 Points   |   Tied for 2602nd

Lisboa vs. Oliveira
Tainara Lisboa, SUB, R2
God only knows who's gonna win this one bc neither one of them has fought decent competition. I just flipped a coin for my pick on this one

"Keep on keeping on"

gliese58i
gliese58i
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10.13.2023 | 10:15 AM ET

@Duck

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points   |   Tied for 415th

That's because Edson hasn't faced that many wrestlers overall. Entertaining strikers like him are usually put against other strikers to make it entertaining. Noone except diehard Khabib or wrestling fans prefer the kind of match that happened when those two fought as contrasted to for example his recent fight against Shane Burgos.

"She’ll go there and smash her. She’ll get a title shot, become a UFC champion. We have a Ronda Rousey on steroids. This is what we have.” - Ali Abdelaziz on Kayla Harrison

leglock
leglock
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10.13.2023 | 10:19 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 1 Perfect, 290 Points   |   Tied for 3778th

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Edgar Cháirez, SUB, R1
Not the distance

Lisboa vs. Oliveira
Ravena Oliveira, TKO, R1
Not the distance

McKinney vs. Marotte
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R3
Not the distance

Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili
Chris Gutierrez, TKO, R2
Not the distance

lendwg
lendwg

10.13.2023 | 10:23 AM ET

Elkins Vs. TJ

Predictions: 4 of 11 Winners, 3 Perfect, 325 Points   |   Tied for 3546th

I’ve always felt Elkins was overrated(still very tough). His UFC wins aren’t the best and he’s slowing down. At 39 years of age being known for taking damage isn’t the best thing to brag about. TJ is no world beater but I think the younger/stronger fighter gets this done.
MrFishweir
MrFishweir
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10.13.2023 | 10:51 AM ET

Prediction Comments

Predictions: 5 of 11 Winners, 4 Perfect, 350 Points   |   Tied for 3283rd

Cháirez vs. Lacerda
Daniel Lacerda, DEC
win

Rodriguez vs. Saaiman
Cameron Saaiman, SUB, R2
win

Elkins vs. Brown
TJ Brown, DEC
win

Lisboa vs. Oliveira
Ravena Oliveira, DEC
win

Alekseeva vs. Dixon
Melissa Dixon, DEC
win

Gutierrez vs. Alatengheili
Chris Gutierrez, DEC
win

"hay maker"

tianofcreation
tianofcreation
  • Member Since: 2023.04.15
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10.13.2023 | 11:22 AM ET

Parlay killer forecast

Predictions: 6 of 11 Winners, 2 Perfect, 365 Points   |   Tied for 3080th

This breakdown is intended to help avoid unnecessary risks and value traps for Yusuff v. Barboza 10/14/2023. Use this to help avoid risk, and to identify value propositions.
  1. Ashley Yoder+310Vs. Emily Ducote -395: Ducote has a 79.8 percent implied probability at -395. Thus, she is extremely overvalued. We would advise avoiding including Ducote because at 79.8 percent she is extremely over valued. Based off tape study Yoder may even be able to pull of an upset. We believe the odds should be more of a coin flip here. Thus, there is possible value on Yoder, and Ducote should be avoided.
  2. Chris Gutierrez -285 vs. +230 Heili Alateng: The implied probability for. Gutierrez is 74.03 percent for the mongolian Alateng it is 30.3 percent. While the line has come down a bit from 79 percent Gutierrez is still overvalued here in our opinion.
  3. Irina Alekseva +124vs. Melissa Dixon -148: Alekseva probability is 44.64 percent. We believe she should be a favorite here at about 59 percent. This will be Melissa Dixon’s first UFC fight, and she will likely be overwheled by Alekseva. Thus, there is an edge with Alekseva and she is the value pick.
For more info check out my substack if you want link on my profile. LETS GET IT FAM!

"https://mmawise.substack.com/"

baremaras
baremaras
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10.13.2023 | 11:56 AM ET

tianofcreation

Predictions: 8 of 11 Winners, 5 Perfect, 540 Points   |   Tied for 539th

can you be a little more specific bro? what did you see in tape study (you mentioned you did tape study) that makes you think Yoder could pull off the upset and that the fight should be lined a pick' em? genuinely curious

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