UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Korean Zombie

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Jarno getting ktfo 

@Rah123 

The "Commentator Heart" 😂😂😭😭

I'm taking Smith over Spann via TKO. Spann was almost slept numerous times last time they fought.

Lol

Holloway vs. Jung
Max Holloway, TKO, R4
Volume will get to the zombie, ref steps in the save his life

Smith vs. Spann II
Anthony Smith, SUB, R1
They'll bang it out until Spann gets clipped, Smith follows it up with a choke

Chikadze vs. Caceres
Giga Chikadze, TKO, R2
Cacera's recent resurgence has been fun to watch, but Giga has beat some real killers

Nakamura vs. Garcia
Rinya Nakamura, SUB, R2
Garcia's toughness lets him survive round 1, Nakamura cant find the button so resorts to the choke for the finish

Blanchfield vs. Santos
Erin Blanchfield, DEC
30-27 wrestling domination

Tafa vs. Porter
Parker Porter, DEC
The revenge of Parker Porter

Cortes-Acosta vs. Brzeski
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, DEC
LOw level heavy weight fights will always be closer than they should be, but WCO by volume

Kazama vs. Armfield
Garrett Armfield, TKO, R1
Based off the energy from the weigh in this should be fun, Kazama's chin cracks in a 1st round brawl

Njokuani vs. Oleksiejczuk
Chidi Njokuani, DEC
Rooting for Chidi, but can definitely see lord Michal winning

Song vs. Bedoya
Rolando Bedoya, DEC
If the same Bedoya shows up from last fight it should be a fun decision win

Kino****a vs. Goff
Billy Goff, TKO, R3
Billy wins a dawg fight or gets slept early

Liang vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, TKO, R2
LIang gasses after a wild round 1, Aldrich takes over

Choi vs. Errens
Jarno Errens, DEC
Jarno uses good feet movement and wrestling to secure a decision win

Holloway vs. Jung
Max Holloway, TKO, R3
hate this fight, shouldn't have been made. TKZ should get a step down in competition after a standing tko

Smith vs. Spann II
Ryan Spann, TKO, R1
Spann hits deceptively hard

Blanchfield vs. Santos
Erin Blanchfield, TKO, R2
by somethiing super crazy

Njokuani vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R1
It's a shame I won't be awake for this absolute banger

Song vs. Bedoya
Kenan Song, DEC
That dog is LIVE

Kino****a vs. Goff
Billy Goff, TKO, R1
Kino****a is gonna lose to elbows twice in a row

I do not see a strength disparity between Santos and Blanchfield. Erin did whatever she wanted to Maverick who could do nothing, held her down like she was a child.

Holloway vs. Jung
Max Holloway, TKO, R4
max should be too sharp and wear damage better.

Smith vs. Spann II
Anthony Smith, SUB, R3
this feels like a dumb pick because spann is gonna probably have a monster r1, but i'll say smith doesn't fold and starts to take over once ryan gets tired.

Chikadze vs. Caceres
Giga Chikadze, DEC
it's possible that alex's funk can keep giga guessing, but i feel like he's gonna oblige him in a striking battle.

Nakamura vs. Garcia
Rinya Nakamura, TKO, R2
seems like a favorable matchup for rinya, fernie has been taken down a bit in his 2 losses.

Blanchfield vs. Santos
Erin Blanchfield, TKO, R3
erin finds her groove after santos pushes the pace early, eventually ending up on top with some elbows.

Tafa vs. Porter
Junior Tafa, TKO, R2
porter could wrestle this into a win, but i don't trust him to do so.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Brzeski
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, DEC
feel like waldo will be more active? really not sure though.

Kazama vs. Armfield
Garrett Armfield, TKO, R2
seems like kazama pushes early for a sub, but starts to wilt as armfield racks up some damage.

Njokuani vs. Oleksiejczuk
Chidi Njokuani, TKO, R2
think i like chidi here. longer range and maybe slicker.

Song vs. Bedoya
Rolando Bedoya, TKO, R2
song might land big early, but otherwise i expect bedoya to have the volume and better movement.

Kino****a vs. Goff
Billy Goff, TKO, R2
i'll say goff survives the early pressure and can force some striking exchanges.

Liang vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, DEC
liang will probably sting jj at some point, but will she be able to finish? i say no and she gets taken down in the other rounds.

Choi vs. Errens
Seung Woo Choi, DEC
choi has faced 3 underrated strikers so maybe he can keep his foot on the gas a little better here? probably not, he'll just go berserker at some point and crumble. whatever, let's try it.

To start out I’m going to admit I might be pretty biased on this breakdown because Holloway is easily my favorite fighter in the UFC. TKZ is another fighter I like, he’s one of the earliest fighters I became a fan of when I started watching MMA as a kid. So, this fight is a bit hard for me to stay objective because I’ve enjoyed watching both men fighting for years and don’t want to see a real bad ending for either of them. With that I mind, it’s still amazing it’s taken these two Featherweight Legends this long to cross paths in the UFC. TKZ has been a fan favorite since literally the WEC days and Holloway’s been fighting nearly as long but has clearly planted his flag as one of the best to ever grace the cage in the UFC. Both have been in some legendary wars, so the mileage has finally started to really show, but I still believe both have enough to make this interesting.

Stand Up Phase:
Holloway (OX) is the more dynamic striker of the two fighters. Primarily an OX kickboxer, but in his most recent fight he’s spent more time staying in SP. Holloway’s long combinations and high volume is used to push a high pace that most OPPs cannot match and become overwhelmed. His use of the jab to set up his combinations to attack the head and body does well to keep OPPs confused. However, he does have the tendency to absorb too much damage due to having an all-time durable chin. TKZ (OX) is more an OX boxer who sprinkles in kicks sporadically. He uses his good timing and strong power in his hands to find opportunities to land powerful combinations of hooks and UCs. His tendency to lean heavy on his front leg does allow for him to get hit with a jab easily, but it also gives him the chance to slip and land strong counters. TKZs nickname has been to his detriment at this point of his career since he usually takes an insane amount of damage. I predict Holloway will continue to use a SP stance and throw the jab and OBK to create space before finding chances to land combinations. 

Clinch Phase:
TKZ is more known for having strong grappling ability, but Holloway’s grappling isn’t a weakness in any sense. TKZ has great TD defense in space and along the cage and has shown an excellent ability in returning to his feet after being taken down. Holloway is obviously known for his all-time great TD defense and has great ability to return to the feet. Holloway appears to be the better striker within the clinch, using strong knees and elbows, but TKZ seems to have the better ability to securing BC. Both can land TDs but TKZ seems to have the better ability in changing the angle to secure TDs. I predict TKZ will try to find opportunities to slow down Holloway’s striking along the cage before trying sneak to the back and secure BC. 

Ground Phase:
TKZ has shown more diversity in Sub Attempts, but in recent years his dynamic grappling has been quite muted. He does, however, have better control when the find hits the ground. Holloway has great control from the top when landing GnP and will take the chance to attack Sub Attempts if the chance arrives. I predict if Holloway can hurt TKZ and land a knockdown he’ll simply try to control from the top and land GnP. Both have good enough Sub defense to prevent each other’s attempts with relative ease. 

Prediction: Holloway wins by Unanimous Decision
Both fighters have clearly slowed down in recent years, but I think Holloway still has a lot more compared to TKZ. The unfortunate thing about this match up is the unlikely nature of finish from either fighter. TKZ will probably be true to his name and be a zombie walking forward through strikes, but that might not be best case with a fighter that can land historically significant strike totals like Holloway (I’m sure most of us remember the historic beating Holloway gave Calvin Kattar a few years ago). Holloway will most likely overwhelm TKZ with diverse combinations to the body and head while TKZ will be primarily a headhunter. I only see a finish in this fight unless Holloway’s legendary chin has finally cracked or TKZ has seriously fallen off the cliff since his last fight.   

Abbreviations: 
OX: Orthodox 
SP: Southpaw 
OPP: Opponent 
BC: Back Control 
TD: Takedown 
GnP: Ground n Pound 
UC: Uppercut 
OBK: Oblique Kick

Chikadze vs. Caceres
Alex Caceres, DEC
Should be FON

Chikadze vs. Caceres
Giga Chikadze, DEC
Can 100% see the underdog win with giga having such a long lay off but both struggle with output if their opponent ain’t pressing as they need the other to be a pressure striker and considering neither do that I believe Gigas striking will edge it.

Blanchfield vs. Santos
Erin Blanchfield, DEC
Talia is good enough for it to go to a decision

Tafa vs. Porter
Junior Tafa, TKO, R1
Concerned about picking either guy. Parker usually wins with pressure striking which leads to the eventual takedown as he tires his competition out. I just believe tafa has good enough striking to not allow that unlike Braxton or Josh.

Choi = lock 

watching the Gomis/Errens fight now, Errens just mentally gives up everytime there's a grappling exchange to save his gas tank. Errens has absolutely no lateral movement his brain goes "walk forward, punch face" in standup Errens clearly think he is better than what he actually is and that can be dangerous if you fall into fighting his fight. Errens only has hip tosses against when grappling against the cage otherwise he really seemed like a fish outta water in every other grappling exchange. dude is body triangling in full guard when losing 2 rounds.

watching Choi/Culibao I see Choi getting caught with similiar punches that Errens got on Gomis and I would imagine Errens would make a lot more damage, Choi seems to freeze a bit in wild exchanges and isn't that great in hand fighting which is gonna be Errens' habit to get inside. Choi is going to have the advantage in grappling against the cage and he seems to enjoy taking the back on the ground.

This seems to be an explosive start to an otherwise boring card but I hope I am wrong.

watching Choi/Trizano Choi has a tendency to get wild everytime he gets hurt, even in the Culibao fight.

with this analysis imma say that Errens definitely has a winnable matchup here if Choi keeps fighting like a dummy, which I am guessing he will. I hope that someone is going to sleep in this one and it might be Choi.

if I am completely wrong Errens is gonna be laying on his back for 3 rounds looking at the clock trying desperate **** submissions and just lose a boring ass fight.

Holloway vs. Jung
Max Holloway, TKO, R2
Dude, Holloway, I have always liked you bro, but it's time to hang it up. Beat the zombie and then retire.

It starts in like 3 hours? I'm going to bed now and not setting the alarm. Inshallah I will wake in time to catch some of it.

Holloway vs. Jung
Max Holloway, TKO, R3
Rooting for KZ, and an upset from him would be legendary, but Max taking this by mid/late stoppage or decision is the safest pick.

Smith vs. Spann II
Ryan Spann, SUB, R1
It’s hard to have confidence in Ryan Spann. I’m picking him to win the rematch here, but his defensive inconsistencies and lack of gas tank worry me against a guy like Smith who is rarely finished in the first round, and has success when he can drag his opponent into deep waters. Gonna say Spann gets the early finish over a washed Smith, but don’t be shocked if Smith makes it 2-0 against Superman.

Chikadze vs. Caceres
Giga Chikadze, DEC
Giga is coming off a grueling loss to Calvin Kattar, multiple surgeries and a pretty long layoff. On paper, he should take this, but Caceres is an overachiever whose only gotten better as time has gone on. Gonna say Giga wins a decision via staying on the outside, but a Caceres upset here is not out of the question at all.

Nakamura vs. Garcia
Rinya Nakamura, DEC
Fernie Garcia is a really tough, scrappy fighter, so I expect him to survive an early onslaught against Nakamura but will still probably get dominated. Nakamura is an excellent wrestler, so if he can’t get a big finish early, him riding out the rest of the fight with wrestling is a realistic path to victory for him. Garcia has never been stopped, so I think Rinya will beat him in similar fashion to Brady Hiestand.

Blanchfield vs. Santos
Erin Blanchfield, DEC
I admittedly don’t put a ton of thought into these WMMA picks, because I don’t follow it as closely. I know Santos is good- she’s a big, strong fighter with legitimate grappling chops. There’s an argument that she beat Shevchenko. With that said, Blanchfield has demonstrated more finishing upside, which is always a big advantage in these womens divisions. Since she’s more dangerous, I’m taking her to win this one.

Tafa vs. Porter
Junior Tafa, TKO, R1
I was originally taking Porter to win this by decision, but I’m not very confident in his chances against a guy like Tafa. Against lesser strikers at heavyweight, Porter has found success with his underrated boxing, cardio and wrestling. I just don’t think that will work against someone like Junior Tafa, who is a much more proven striker and has a lot of power. Porter has shown he’s vulnerable to big punchers early, and I think that’s a bad sign against a guy who gets his best work done in the first round. Judging by the way Porter was beat by Junior’s brother, Justin, I think a similar result here is likely.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Brzeski
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, DEC
I’m not very high on either guy here, which isn’t shocking when it comes to lower level heavyweights. WCA has demonstrated solid boxing and cardio in MMA, and is generally able to beat guys by taking them the distance and out boxing them. While it’s not something I see working for him at the upper echelons of 265, it seems to be decently effective for him at this level. Brzeski has more of a finishing threat in this fight, he’s got finishes by KO and submission, so that’s a plus for him. I’m just not sure he has the tools to deploy those weapons against a guy like WCA, who will be happy to just pot shot him from range all night. Unless Brzeski can really be aggressive and do some damage, WCA by decision.

Kazama vs. Armfield
Toshiomi Kazama, SUB, R1
I was originally picking Armfield. Not that he’s all that good, but mostly because I tend to be pessimistic when it comes to Japanese fighters in the UFC. I want to be more optimistic, though. I’ve seen a lot of people picking Kazama as the underdog, and I think I’ll go with them. Armfield isn’t a world beater, and Kazama is a dangerous finisher in his own right. Armfield could definitely spark him early, but Kazama by submission is my pick.

Njokuani vs. Oleksiejczuk
Michał Oleksiejczuk, TKO, R2
While I was originally picking Chidi in this fight, I think I’m now leaning towards Michal. He’s only been stopped once, has good volume boxing and probably the better grappling between the two. Chidi is more technical and better at distance, but he’s underwhelmed so many times in the past. Chidi has better wins at 185, but Michal feels more well rounded. Gonna say Michal wins by ground and pound mid way through the fight.

Song vs. Bedoya
Rolando Bedoya, DEC
Bedoya getting a lot of good will from the odds makers. Despite coming off of a loss, both the UFC and the bookies have given credit to Bedoya for losing a very close fight. A fight that a lot of people felt Bedoya won. Regardless, he’s definitely got the tools to win. Song will obviously have that big eraser in the form of power, but Bedoya has shown he’s comfortable going the distance with power hitters like Khaos Williams. Song has dropped much better fighters than Bedoya, most notably Ian Garry, but it remains to be seen how he’ll succeed with that against a hard nosed thai boxer like Bedoya. Gonna say Bedoya marches forward with volume and gets a decision.

Kino****a vs. Goff
Yusaku Kino****a, TKO, R1
A lot of people have been fading Kino****a due to his performance against Adam Fuggitt. I totally understand it, and it makes sense, Goff is an explosive striker with durability, cardio and wrestling he can fall back on. My issue is that Goff gets hit a lot, especially early in fights, and has had to fight back from getting hurt quite often. Kino****a, at least against the competition we’ve seen him face, has shown that he hits damn hard. He’s got a sort of brawling karate style, which makes Goff ripe to eat a big counter early. That’s not good for a guy who got hurt early by some random Israeli guy on the Contender Series. Billy is more dynamic, has more ways to win and is more consistent… but I gotta go with Kino****a by early KO.

Liang vs. Aldrich
JJ Aldrich, TKO, R1
Aldrich comes in as a huge favorite. She’s a better striker, more durable, has more experience going the distance, more wins over quality opponents, better wrestling, just every advantage you’d expect. So, of course, Liang will probably beat her by flying ArmBar or something.

Choi vs. Errens
Jarno Errens, DEC
I was originally picking Choi, but I’ve seen a lot of people favoring Errens here. Despite him having a significant lack of UFC experience compared to Choi, he seems to be the more dynamic fighter. Choi gives up a lot of takedowns, he’s hittable and he’s been submitted quite a few times. My main worry is that Choi will clip Errens early, and ride that to a decision win. On the other hand, knowing how his last fight went, Choi hurting Errens could set him up to lose down the stretch. Regardless, I’m gonna go with the faders and pick Errens to get his first UFC win.

Holloway tko/dec
Smith / Spann u1.5
Caceres ML
Nakamura/ Garcia u1.5
Oleksiejczuk tko/dec

SKRRRRT

Little late, but here goes...
1. Caceres/Kazama/Porter @ 15.32:1
2. Goff/Oleksiejczuk/Spann @ 7.20:1
3. Blanchfield/Choi/Cortes-Acosta @ 3.99:1
4. Bedoya/Aldrich/Holloway @ 1.76:1
5. Nakamura solo bet @ 1.12:1
10-pack : parlays 1-3 + Bedoya @ 576.97:1