UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Rakic also dominated him on the ground in round 2 of their fight

Rakic also had a dominant grappling only match against Smith

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R1
Too much experience

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Gotta be

I remember that Tony Ferguson always had those crazy moments, but pull a knife in a press conference goes beyond even the time he broke the castilla of one of his students. It's impossible to debate the fact that Ferguson's career is at a point of no return and while Green was never anything special beyond breaking into the Top 15 or being a ranked gatekeeper you have to remember that after his loss to Barboza, Green went to a skid of 0-3-1 in virtually 4 years without winning a fight. 

After beating Koch, he lost 2 in a row again and then won 3 in a row and got back into the Top 15 after that he looked bad against Moises, but had a decent performance against Fiziev, then won 2 in a row again against Iaquinta and Nasrat. Although he is currently 0-2 (1 NC) those losses were against the Champion Islam and against Dober whom he was leading before being knocked out. Against Gordon, I think that surely from the second round he would have managed to start dominating the fight, but his despair led to the headbutt and the No-Contest.

 In conclusion: Green has been erratic, but he has performed well against good opponents in the last 5 years. Tony comes from being broken on striking by Gaethje, outgrappled by Oliveira, outwresrled by Dariush, Looking good in R1 vs. Chandler but be brutal Knocked in R2 and outstruk, hurt on feet and choked by Nate Diaz, in the 5-loss streak Tony was beaten in pretty much every possible way a fighter can take a beatdown, Mentally as a fighter he's done and perhaps on the level of later years BJ Penn. Bobby Green can stop Tony the way he did with Al Iaquinta and maybe that's for the best because surely Ferguson may seriously consider retirement after that.

* Edited at 07.27.2023, 3:25 AM ET *

@Sasquatch27 

How are you saying it's easy win for Alex and then a few messages later changing and saying easy win for Jan, i'm confused

I have no respect for anyone who loses to Michael Johnson.
I never considered tony to be a future champion, for me he's a clown with good grappling, he's never won against someone at a high level. Maybe only Edson...

Surely your trolling, no one can be that ********, Tony is a all time great 

Trying to get a reaction

Sasquack

Nice lil rebound for Miranda Maverick. First Round Sub methinks. 

@DamienHandel420 

he has a valid point. his last 2 wins, years ago by the way are both by injury. showed he 1 good round vs chandler before getting koed. this should be his retirement fight. his talk of a title and 5 more fights is well not good for his health.

Poirier vs. Gaethje II
Justin Gaethje, TKO, R2
I have no idea here either, honestly. I keep flipping back and forth with my pick but I'm gonna say Justin gets the win here and here's why. I think Justin can out cardio Dustin because he has been training at elevation his whole career pretty much and even though Poirier has the more crisp striking I think Gaethje has more options and we all know he won't go to the wrestling but we all do know that he can if he did want to. Legit 50/50 and gonna be a great fight. I'm excited for the BMF belt here because they truly are BMFs.

Błachowicz vs. Pereira
Jan Błachowicz, SUB, R2
I have no idea. I'm leaning Jan because he can get a takedown and submit Pereira at any point in this fight but will he go for a takedown is the question. Pereira training with Glover won't be enough to improve his ground game that quickly and he's gonna look like a fish out of water if he's on his back. Jan is slow and plotting on the feet so he better implement a takedown to keep Pereira guessing or things may get crazy. Pereira had a huge change to get a finish here too. I'll lean Jan by sub.

Thompson vs. Pereira
Stephen Thompson, DEC
Pereira won't go for any takedowns and if he does then he won't be able to keep Wonderboy down. Thompson is gonna pick this guy apart for 3 rounds. I don't see Pereira giving up so I'm gonna say Wonderboy by decision.

Ferguson vs. Green
Bobby Green, TKO, R2
I know Bobby Green doesn't really have that type of power but I just can't pick Ferguson here. This man is absolutely done. Green will TKO him because Ferguson is gonna give up at some point and that Bobby Green pressure is just different. .

Chiesa vs. Holland
Kevin Holland, SUB, R1
Chiesa is gonna be scared to strike and then he's gonna shoot a takedown like always and Holland is gonna snatch his neck. Holland gets taken down a lot but this man has very good bjj. Chiesa lay and pray not gonna work this time.

Giles vs. Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R1
Bonfim should make this look easy but I do have to say that Giles is extremely talented and is a tough out for anyone but his fight IQ is gonna be the reason he gets subbed early in this spot. Bonfim is a problem.

Lewis vs. Rogério de Lima
Derrick Lewis, TKO, R1
I watched the Lewis media day interview yesterday and he looks great. Seems to be healthy and motivated unlike other times. I'm gonna pick Lewis here but DE Lima could give Lewis some problems early with leg kicks and possibly takedowns. I think DE Lima is gonna try to work his way in for a takedown and Lewis is gonna knock him out. I wouldn't be shocked if Lima wins and I was gonna pick him but I have a bad feeling that he's gonna fall under the pressure of a Lewis knockout.

Kopylov vs. Ribeiro
Roman Kopylov, TKO, R2
Kopylov has very good striking. He's gonna pick Ribeiro apart until he gasses and then Roman finishes him. Ribeiro is very dangerous in round 1 though.

Matthews vs. Flowers
Jake Matthews, TKO, R2
Matthews gonna land a huge shot and will take Flowers out. Matthews looked unbelievable vs Fiahlo and his striking has improved. Flowers is decent and pretty much just has big power and it comes in waves but it won't be enough on short notice.

Vergara vs. Salvador
CJ Vergara, DEC
Vergara isn't the best fighter but he's very well rounded and I think that's gonna be a huge problem for Salvador. Salvador has the height and reach but he doesn't like being pressured and that's exactly what's gonna happen here.

Semelsberger vs. Medic
Matthew Semelsberger, TKO, R2
I'll always ride with Semelsberger. Guy is underrated big time. Medic is very dangerous in round 1 but there's no way he's not gonna gas out in round 2 especially in Utah. Medic is a 1 round guy mainly too. Give me Semi here.

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Maverick makes this look pretty easy. I'm not that high on Maverick and never was but Cachoeira is knockout or bust. I see Cach gassing out and then Maverick just wrestling her for 3 rounds.

Actually, at elevation some of my locks might not be so lockish.. dang.

Błachowicz vs. Pereira
Jan Błachowicz, DEC
Got to enjoy this one, I have no clue how it's going to pan out just enjoy!

Ferguson vs. Green
Bobby Green, TKO, R3
Will the ref just step in and save Tony...

Matthews vs. Flowers
Darrius Flowers, TKO, R3
That Semi Jedi fight shocked me and I don't think I can back Matthews again

Vergara vs. Salvador
Vinicius Salvador, TKO, R1
Salvador to finish what Lacerda started...

"I think that ...if the fighter stays standing and strikes 
..he wins and he he gets taken down he loses" 


90 percent of breakdowns haha 😄  

Matthews vs. Flowers
Jake Matthews, DEC
Matthews went from looking like a contender in his performance against Fialho to getting completely destroyed by a fun but very limited fighter in Semelsberger... Plus his decision win over the dead body of Diego Sanchez was embarrassingly not dominant... Not quite enough to pick Flowers tho, but I'm this close.

I highly doubt that Cachoeira will make weight

@kkomboo I agree. She has a track record of missing weight when she gets paired against another grappler 

I heard Uros is injured going into the fight. Man that sucks. I was super close to betting him.

Where did you hear that? What type of injury?

On a podcast called half the battle(youtube)

A hand injury