UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Its gonna be quick job for Alex, there is no discusion about that. I dont know why he's underdog, he should be like -1000

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 11:11 AM ET *

If he should be +1000 that would make him the underdog no? 

Dont be a picky boy. I missclicked, anyway, Alex pereira is a free money bet 

Jan better have worked on his wrestling. If he can take him down he wins this like he did against Adesanya. If not he likely gets koed.

I wonder who will win the leg kick battle 

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 11:21 AM ET *

@Goldy99 

Alex might have the best leg kicks in the UFC right now so that should give you a hint

@goldy definitely poatan. Leg kicking is second nature for him and he knows how to check kicks which takes away one of Jan’s main weapons 

when a highly experienced kickboxer like Adesanya says that there's no telegraph to your leg kicks then you know you got s-tier leg kicks

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 11:25 AM ET *

Jan checked most kicks against Adesanya. That match is in fact the best he's ever looked in the striking. He is slow and bites hard at every feint though which is exhausting, an we're adding another 2.5 years to the 38 he was then. Unless he can wrestle Poatan for 2 rounds I don't think he wins this one.
Since he hasn't had his wrestling shoes on outside the Adesanya match since 2017-2018 I'm gonna have to go back to see how he looked back then.

@gliese58i 

How you gonna check a leg kick you don't see coming though. Adesanya himself is good at checking/stepping out of range from leg kicks  and he said the way Alex throws them he couldn't get a read on in both those fights. 

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 12:32 PM ET *

I'll say this again: I think its an awful fight that could go either way but I am genuinely surprised at how many people are saying Ferguson is so cooked that he has absolutely no shot against Bobby Green. 

Bobby Green....who has 14 career losses. Bobby Green, who just like Tony is a .500 fighter in his last 10. Bobby Green, who without question also loses every single fight Tony has been in on his losing streak. Bobby Green, who wasn't even convincingly beating Jared freaking Gordon in his last fight before he awkwardly launched his head at him like a missile. 

I think this is a 50/50 fight between two CTE patients who both should have probably retired already. 

Another thing with the Jan-Alex fight I forgot to say too is that Alex just got put out BAD only 3.5 months ago. I think this is a pretty quick turn around, and up a weight class at that, for having been just finished so brutally, especially against someone with the power Jan has. Unless Alex one shots Jan, he’s gonna get landed on and I’m not sure how well his chin may hold given all those factors here. 

I changed my mind, Jan will win this easily. He won  everytime (3) when he fought someone going up wieghtclass. This time will be the same, Jan FOR THE WIN!

you're using MMA math and equating/oversimplifying how their recent careers have gone

tony got brutalized by gaethje, brutalized by dariush, brutalized by oliveira, brutalized by chandler, looked like **** and quit against nate diaz of all people

meanwhile bobby green has last lost to thiago moises (quite literally top 15 talent and he arguably should have won that fight and would have definitely won it with a tiny bit better fight iq), fiziev (quite possibly top 5 striker in the entire company and he arguably should have won that fight as well outstriking a muay thai phenom in fiziev), makhachev (got outgrappled by the best grappler in the ufc on short notice, no big deal), drew dober (bobby was literally having a flawless in the zone performance against dober until getting randomly caught), jared gordon (bobby didnt look great in this fight but let's be honest, gordon is fragile with no chin - green would have won that with or without a headbutt)

so, conclusion is that your "two CTE patients in a 50/50 fight" comment is actually pretty inaccurate because tony has received way way way more damage both in his overall career and in his recent fights (bobby's game is literally based around not getting hit clean and he's only been ko'd twice in his almost-50 fight long career) and at the same time tony is blatantly showing signs of being as washed as it gets while bobby is still hanging around and winning big parts of his fights with top 15, top 10 tier talent

having said all that, i want you to explain to me how does tony win this fight? what type of gameplan does he need to follow exactly to win? becuase i simply don't see it

i'm going to go right ahead and rebut your pretty obvious response here since I know what you're going to say already. no, tony will NOT manage to get bobby green down and control him. bobby green has very very underrated grappling and sneakily good takedown defense (bobby has never actually been full on outgrappled in the ufc by anyone other than islam, not even moises managed do it) - that coupled with the fact that tony doesn't have very good wrestling and his entire bjj game is based around scrambles, submission threats and playing guard off his back, it's simply not happening.

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 2:46 PM ET *

I would pick jared Gordon pretty confidently over tony 

Yes it's not a good idea to fight so soon after getting slept but moving up a weight class will probably benefit Pereira's chin if I had to guess. Jan also hasn't really stopped anyone with his hands in a while, he's been doing work with kicks to get a finish or hurt his opponent for the last couple of years and he's not a headkicker. Last time he used his hands to get a stoppage was against Corey Anderson in february of 2020, the Reyes finish was set up due to his kick damage in my opinion but even if you count that one it's still 3 years ago.

It struck me going back to watch those 2017-2018 fights of his that he's noticeably slowed down since then. He threw a lot of kicks followed by hands in 2-3-4 combinations against Cannonier. He didn't throw much combinations or with equal speed in any of his last fights. Powerful attacks to be sure but generally one strike at a time.

Jan vs. Poatan is so tricky. Poatan at 205 is going to be scary. Jan actually looked really good for about half of his last fight. If this was 5 rounds I think Jan is a dead man walking. 

However, I think Jan is all but completely out matched on the feet here. He only has to survive 3 rounds but I dont know if Jan can grapple for the majority of a 15 minute fight at his age and not gas himself out. 

The big question for me is can Jan survive a handful of striking exchanges so that all the grappling/clinching/wrestling Poatan is probably expecting doesn't seem so obvious. 

I think Jan will use the same strategy he did against Izzy, which will theoretically be easier because its 2 less rounds (or maybe it isn't easier because hes that much older now). This fight is Jans grappling vs. Poatans hand speed. Both guys are going to show eachother a ton of respect because they both have crazy power. 

Still mulling this one over but with Jan essentially giving his last fight away the way he did and Poatan being the primary pupil of the last guy to beat the breaks off Jan, I'm leaning Poatan as of this writing. 

Poatan has a good chance with his power of course, but I'm pretty confident in Jan. He is still no slouch in kickboxing, he looked very good against Izzy and Rakic. He wrestled successfully against Izzy who is a superior wrestler to Poatan, and despite the size difference between the two Jan is far more experienced in that regard. 
If Jan gets on top, what is Alex going to do? He has very few tools from his back. It's possible that Alex wins but I think it's the outside chance because all he can do is KO Jan which is very hard, and only possible if he stays standing.

* Edited at 07.26.2023, 3:04 PM ET *

Maverick vs. Cachoeira
Miranda Maverick, DEC
Manifesting that the eye-gouger will lose.