UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, SUB, R1
Sterling by 1st or 2nd rd RNC seems so obvious it's hard to pick anything but that. Maybe a hot (or bad) take but I do believe O'Malley has just as good, if not better cardio than aljo. The later the fight goes O'Malley could get the win but It doesn't seem likely. What seems more likely is Boston will be booing sterling from the time he enters til the time he exits the arena

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, SUB, R3
The might be the first & ever time where I'm more interested in the women's fights on the card more than the men's (other than O'Malley, sterling). The first 2 rounds seems like lemos best chance to get a finish but once it gets passed the 2nd round I think it's Zhang's fight all day

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R2
Magny is the fraud checker of the division but garry isn't a fraud. Most confident pick on the card

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
I could see this being a boring fight. I could also see the going to a split decision. Something about the vibes are off on this fight.

Weidman vs. Tavares
Brad Tavares, DEC
Weidman is a paper bag at this point. Doesn't help that's he's matched up against a dude with great a takedown defense

Rodrigues vs. Tiuliulin
Denis Tiuliulin, TKO, R2
Should be a fun scrap as long as it lasts. Both have glaring holes in their games ( robo cops chin. Denis defensive grappling). I don't think Denis has the type of power to ko robo cops weak chin & if he can't do that I think robo cops can easily get this to the ground and dominate

Meerschaert vs. Petroski
Andre Petroski, DEC
Picked gm3 at first but he does well against strikers with bad cardio which petroski is the complete opposite of.

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, SUB, R1
Lee will be a good test but I think Silva is a different level than her and most of the flyweights. She seems better everywhere.

Moroz vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R2
Silvas a beast I can't pick against her. The one concern is moroz is hard to finish and silvas cardio hasn't really been tested yet but moroz doesn't have the best takedown defense & once it hits the ground it's silvas all day

Holobaugh vs. Hubbard
Kurt Holobaugh, DEC
I think holobaugh will do more damage and win the prestigious TUF 7000 trophy

"I'm a die hard MMA fan who only picks 2 out of 13 fights for an entire event"

"...but its only because I'm a SUPER SHARP bettor who only makes picks if I know I'll be right and make money!!!"

So are you just upset because you went 1/2 on your bets yesterday? Its not my fault your Fremd by sub bet didn't hit.

"Dont @ me". I was never talking to you begin with. Why would I? You name dropped me first and started this genius. Please block me yesterday. 

* Edited at 08.14.2023, 12:49 AM ET *

Haha holy **** the closest fight on this card is 70/30. I see a lot of parlay busters on this card 

I remember all the controversy that there was with Gore when he withdrew for Bo Nickal fight during the fight week, a lot of people called him a coward, but the truth is imporbable to say that he invented the injury. Obviously when there is an emotional breakdown, many fighters do not fight in the best way but they greatly underestimate the great amount of self belief (many times also mixed with delusion) of MMA fighters: many big underdogs can enter with the mentality of taking an easy paycheck, but many also rely on their techniques and training and they believe they can beat a more established name or big prospect based on it, that's where the upsets come from. A lot of people focus too much on odds, pick or bets but the reality is that fighters don't care about odds or who people put their money on and pull out days before a fight is a bad move because it represents invest time and money in a full training camp for nothing. There are several suspected cases of withdrawals such as when Yair Rodriguez pulled out 2 times of Zabit fight (even for that reason he was initially released from the contract) but he step in short notice against The Korean Zombie when 2 months earlier he cited an injury as a reason for not fighting against Zabit, but usually injuries in training are something really legitimate and some even go up to the octagon knowing they are injured.

I think the case of Cejudo is the most understandable and least surprising, it was known that he was injured after the fight against Sterling and perhaps he took the fight against Chito thinking that he would be 100% before August or because he wanted to obtain another title shot as soon as possible, but the fact that he wasn't ready to fight was the most understandable and logical thing to do.

Geoff Neal: In my opinion Neal was not yet ready to fight again after the punishment he took in the fight against Shavkat, also the matter that the Fortis MMA Head Coach mentioned is very true: Neal had a strong sepsis case and was in a near death situation in August 2020 and has not fully recovered. The medical issues cited by Neal in his UFC 292 Withdrew were notified to the UFC Health Staff and it is something whose veracity can be verified.

Cody Garbrandt: After the TUF Season 25, Garbrandt has had a huge history of illness and injury:
- Back Injury during TUF Season 25 in one of the many brawls that Cody himself formed during the season.
- Hand and Wrist Injury in Training when there was a high possibility that Garbrandt would be the Main Event of UFC Sacramento (injury at the beginning of the first quarter of 2019 that kept him out until 2020)
- Kidney Illness in February 2020 put Cody out of the possibility of fighting in his hometown Ohio in the Assunção Matchup
- Covid Case during Training Camp for UFC 255
- Withdrew of UFC 255 Title Shot after Bloodclots related to Covid
- During December 2020 and Jan 2021, Garbrandt was still recovering from a strong case of Covid-19
- Injury during the second training camp against Yahya (Rani pull out 2 times of the matchup because of a recurring neck injury) plus undergoing surgery several times during 2022 (at least 2 times).
- Neck Injury during a takedown during Trevin Jones Fight
- Now a new injury during UFC 292 training camp.

At this point, Garbrandt is out of the rankings and out of the rankings not all matchups have to be necessarily scheduled for the winner of the fight to enter or come close to the Top 15: in my opinion the matchmakers can reschedule in Third time the Garbrandt-Yahya matchup after that fight if Garbrandt loses or performs similar to what he did against Jones he should retire.
If he wins overwhelmingly, he should go one of two ways: Take a fight that gets him closer to the top 15 or he can notify the UFC that he wants to retire and they give him a good matchup to retire on a major pay-per-view card. You don't necessarily have to retire when you have absolutely nothing left and in my opinion based on his Fanbase, sponsors and business ventures like the Dog Breeding business Garbrandt could continue to have a good lifestyle without having to fight again.

@AyyLmaonnaise 

damn didn’t know that about Saidyoukub. Always on top of that inside info. Thanks!

Lol I had Fremd by Sub as a prediction on Tap but that doesn’t mean I bet the house on on that specific outcome. I had a freebet so I parlayed Fremd to win. I’m not obligated to give specifics on my bets, I don’t reveal everything on Tap

That’s the last time I’m addressing you Foppa. Leave me alone, and stop calling people ******s it’s inappropriate 

* Edited at 08.13.2023, 7:31 PM ET *

im real tempted to change my pick to omalley can def just see him planting a 1-2 on aljo and putting him out

Sean has no shot he got 30-27 yan.

Anyone hear about any additional bouts potentially in the pipeline? 10 bouts on a ppv card seems pretty low.

Brad Katona vs the winner of Rico DiSciullio vs Cody Gibson on this card too, as that the other ultimate fighter fight

Edit: I google searched the ultimate fighter and change my comment, I don’t watch the ultimate fighter so I don’t really know much about it, just want kniferusty comment to make sence

* Edited at 08.13.2023, 8:21 PM ET *

@DamienHandel420 

yes it’s Katona vs. TBA for the bantamweight bout

Yeah I can’t lie pretty upset with the amount of cancellations on this card, I was excited to see those fights play out they were probably gonna be some of the best ones on the card.

Is Natalia Silva a lock?

@Naylor 

Natalia’s TDD is impressive. Her striking is high level for the division & I expect her to win in impressive fashion. I have 2.5 Units on her which for me is $25K

FWIW I think Lee may have beaten Barber because of the TDs but it should be be exceedingly arduous for Lee to TD Silva

* Edited at 08.13.2023, 8:40 PM ET *

Sterling vs. O'Malley
Aljamain Sterling, SUB, R2
Sterling strikes and grapples in the first creating a feeling out process as Sean manages to defend the early take down but in the 2nd Sterling find the back and chokes him out.

Zhang vs. Lemos
Weili Zhang, SUB, R3
Zhang out grapples Lemos and also having the ability to hit hard no the feet is just gonna make this easier for her. Probably makes it to the 3rd and Zhang grabs the choke.

Magny vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R2
Ian is training with Rowe a mini Magny. Plus its Magny you know the drill. 

Vera vs. Munhoz
Pedro Munhoz, DEC
Munoz doesn't get rocked. has good grappling and technical striking. Aldo and Cruz beats Vera if he cant find the finish. The same is the case here, Munoz wins a decision unless Vera finds the finish and that is hard to do against Munoz and its a 3 rounder. yikes for Vera. his only chance is to be aggressive and active in his striking.

Lee vs. Silva
Natália Silva, TKO, R2
Silva is actually competent 

Moroz vs. Silva
Karine Silva, SUB, R1
Silva avenges her loss they are at different points in their careers now 

* Edited at 08.13.2023, 9:45 PM ET *

pedro might just be the hardest counter to vera great chin, power, good wrestling nd doesnt gas but i see marlon making close enough for the judges to rob pedro they want vera at the top so if o'malley losses to aljo they can get him right back in their with that matchup