Topic: UFC Fight Night

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi

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Tapology
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03.08.2023 | 10:53 AM ET

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!
UFC Fight Night
  • Saturday 06.03.2023 at 06:00 PM ET
  • U.S. Broadcast: ESPN | Prelims: ESPN+
  • Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
  • Ownership: Endeavor
  • Venue: UFC Apex
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
  • Enclosure: Octagon
  • TV Announcers: Brendan Fitzgerald, Laura Sanko, Michael Bisping
  • Ring Announcer: Bruce Buffer
  • Post-Fight Interviews: Michael Bisping
  • MMA Bouts: 13
  • Promotion Links:
  • Event Links:
Bout   Info
Amir Albazi   defeats   Kai Kara-France   via Decision, Split   5 Rounds, 25:00 Total Bout Page
Alex Caceres   defeats   Daniel Pineda   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Jim Miller   defeats   Jesse Butler   via KO/TKO, Left Hook and Uppercut   0:23 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Tim Elliott   defeats   Victor Altamirano   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Karine Silva   defeats   Ketlen Souza   via Submission, Kneebar   1:45 Round 1 of 3 Bout Page
Elizeu Zaleski   defeats   Abubakar Nurmagomedov   via Decision, Split   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Daniel Santos   defeats   Johnny Munoz Jr.   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Don'Tale Mayes   defeats   Andrei Arlovski   via KO/TKO, Right Hook to Ground Strikes   3:17 Round 2 of 3, 8:17 Total Bout Page
John Castañeda   defeats   Muin Gafurov   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Muhammad Naimov   defeats   Jamie Mullarkey   via KO/TKO, Right Hook to Ground Strikes   2:59 Round 2 of 3, 7:59 Total Bout Page
Elise Reed   defeats   Jinh Yu Frey   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page
Da'Mon Blackshear   defeats   Luan Lacerda   via KO/TKO, Ground Punches   3:54 Round 2 of 3, 8:54 Total Bout Page
Philipe Lins   defeats   Maxim Grishin   via Decision, Unanimous   3 Rounds, 15:00 Total Bout Page

Responses Page 22

JReynolds47
JReynolds47
  • Location: Plano, Texas
  • Member Since: 2020.08.31
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05.28.2023 | 5:40 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 3 Perfect, 475 Points   |   Tied for 1265th

im 18 and i atleast do 100

"Jarno Errens is a future UFC champion, Мне нужна гора в моей жизни"

Crayz
Crayz
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05.28.2023 | 5:40 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points   |   Tied for 4045th

@IDPC7 🤣🤣😭😭 

"💰🌆"

Crayz
Crayz
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05.28.2023 | 5:47 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points   |   Tied for 4045th

@IDPC7 most of us will fail initially at gambling, even the best professional sports bettors learned through trial an error, i bankrupted myself twice in the earlier days with the same ignorant logic that rah uses, i thought that simply just picking who i thought would win would be enough…. duh, obviously not, otherwise we would all be running round in lambo’s! obviously the gambling game isn’t as simple as that.. that’s why we need to find a rough estimation of the chance each fighter has in any given matchup, then compare the chance we give them to the bookmakers chance, then make only +% bets! 

"💰🌆"

IDPC7
IDPC7
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05.28.2023 | 5:55 AM ET

Predictions: 6 of 13 Winners, 1 Perfect, 340 Points   |   Tied for 3215th

@Crayz  Completely agree brotha, trust me I was bankrupt before I learned how to find value and, learned that long parlays are not the way to go lmao

"let people sleep on me, and let the doctor wake 'em up" - Jamahal Hill

Rah123
Rah123
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05.28.2023 | 6:08 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points   |   Tied for 484th

The sad thing is that this CrayZ dude is writing pages and pages of explanations of his faulty betting theories. 

But he lacks the intelligence to understand that no one reads through his posts. Or that he is losing money every time he bets.

Take some advice from me son. Make real profit like I do. 

"Positivity is a positive"

Rah123
Rah123
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05.28.2023 | 6:10 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points   |   Tied for 484th

😆 all these page long explanations of value and percentages amd no one reads it. Lol

"Positivity is a positive"

Crayz
Crayz
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05.28.2023 | 6:10 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points   |   Tied for 4045th

@IDPC7 the big parlays will always be made for vegas brother you’re right💯 bookmakers want weak customers, they want the 8 leg parlay type of player, imo the only way to play parlays for longterm success is to make sure the parlay is 2 legs at most, and also none of those 2 legs are + lines. anything you like + money you just play that straight up, you’ll always get better results longterm playing your + money leans straight up. 2 leg parlays when both lines are like -250, those types of parlays are pretty solid, i wouldn’t make a habit out of them, but they’re definitely worth it on a couple cards a month💰

"💰🌆"

Rah123
Rah123
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05.28.2023 | 6:12 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points   |   Tied for 484th

Lol. Spoken like a true gambler who does not understand how to analyse a fight. The best money is always on multi leg parlays. 

But of course you don't understand that with your 0.5% points and predictive values meaning nothing. And of course you will never make real money

"Positivity is a positive"

Crayz
Crayz
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05.28.2023 | 6:13 AM ET

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points   |   Tied for 4045th

@Rah123 i’ve realised that you’re just a bot bro, low IQ type of person or just a troll, i won’t be conversing with you anymore as i don’t want my brain to suffer a loss of IQ points, goodluck with all your foreseeable action! 

"💰🌆"

Rah123
Rah123
  • Member Since: 2022.06.18
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05.28.2023 | 6:32 AM ET

Predictions: 8 of 12 Winners, 5 Perfect, 550 Points   |   Tied for 484th

Good luck broke boy 👍 

"Positivity is a positive"

gliese58i
gliese58i
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05.28.2023 | 8:42 AM ET

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points   |   Tied for 22nd with 3 others

Well, that escalated quickly.

"Be Joseph Pyfer" - Sherdog

Xconchris
Xconchris
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05.28.2023 | 8:52 AM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 7 Perfect, 625 Points   |   Tied for 122nd

I put 5 dollars into a slot machine once. Didn't enjoy it. Haven't gambled since 😆

"Dont take life too serious, you will never make it out alive."

Gregory
Gregory
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05.28.2023 | 12:11 PM ET

@Rah123  @Crayz  @baremaras  @IDPC7 ok you've all made it clear where you all stand. please do not escalate it any further so that we don't have to suspend people for ruining this thread.

"I live, I die, I live again."

Andrew1047
Andrew1047
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05.28.2023 | 12:24 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 500 Points   |   Tied for 934th

Rah is correct, multiple leg parlays are where the big money making is at. 
This user is suspended from posting until 9 years, 8 months, 3 weeks, 14 hours, and 59 minutes from now.
el222
el222
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05.28.2023 | 12:40 PM ET

Predictions: 9 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 600 Points   |   Tied for 185th

Crayz just laid the blueprint for how to talk to an idiot. absolute masterclass 

* Edited at 05.28.2023, 12:41 PM ET *

Andrew1047
Andrew1047
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05.28.2023 | 12:55 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 500 Points   |   Tied for 934th

Apart from what he said was incorrect.

This user is suspended from posting until 9 years, 8 months, 3 weeks, 14 hours, and 59 minutes from now.
gliese58i
gliese58i
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05.28.2023 | 12:56 PM ET

Predictions: 10 of 13 Winners, 5 Perfect, 680 Points   |   Tied for 22nd with 3 others

Big parlays will always be the biggest winners and the smallest probability of a win. It's no different from the stock market. The best long term plan is to invest in global index funds but you'll never be the one making the most money in a single year compared to someone who takes all their money and invest in just one or a few stocks, you'll just be consistently average which over times gives a greater return than having streaky results.

The thing is people want to get rich quick, and that requires taking on enormous risk. It is truly the gambling approach. If you look at betting as more of a craft or a job, then you want to minimze risk and have steady income that wins out over time in 99/100 cases.

"Be Joseph Pyfer" - Sherdog

Crayz
Crayz
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05.28.2023 | 1:26 PM ET

Predictions: 3 of 9 Winners, 1 Perfect, 190 Points   |   Tied for 4045th

@Andrew1047 nothing i said was incorrect. what specifically do you believe was incorrect? 

if you parlay 

+300
+150
-150
-300
+250

essentially what you just did was combine 0.25 x 0.40 x 0.60 x 0.75 x 0.28 = 0.0126% …. which is +793551, the funniest thing about people who parlay all of these lines is, most of the lines don’t even hold the chance that’s implied hahah, so you’re getting +793551 but realistically you probably should’ve got an even bigger price because the +300 is probably more like a +350, and the +150 is probably more like a +175, and the -150 is probably more like -125, so the big price that you’re salivating over should be an even bigger price… if you think a +150 (40%) has a better chance than their line says, combining it with other lines obviously isn’t the mathematically best thing to do.

"💰🌆"

mattyg55
mattyg55
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05.28.2023 | 2:21 PM ET

I love when forums get overrun with gambling theories, so cool
Andrew1047
Andrew1047
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05.28.2023 | 2:53 PM ET

Predictions: 8 of 13 Winners, 4 Perfect, 500 Points   |   Tied for 934th

I guess I have to spell it out.

You're talking about "implied probability" of these odds but there's a problem with that. 

I know the real probability vs the probability the bookies tell me. I'll give you a recent example, the bookies had Pavlovich knocking out Blaydes in Round 1 at +350 (22%).  Me? I knew that **** was 90% and I hammered it. 

I also don't parlay +odds often in big parlays. I play 4-5 locks at big -odds, together they make close to + money and I drop 4 figures on it. That's how you consistently make money.

You're welcome. 

* Edited at 05.28.2023, 2:55 PM ET *

This user is suspended from posting until 9 years, 8 months, 3 weeks, 14 hours, and 59 minutes from now.

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