UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

RustyTennakoon Kim has power in her strikes and Böhm's striking defence is terrible. Kim has had finishes against better competition also fought the better opposition overall. So I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Kim can finish Böhm.

* Edited at 05.10.2023, 12:28 PM ET *

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Pls uppercut ko bigi boy

@Rah123 - you understand that Matt the immortal Brown is like a skeleton of his old shelf still fighting in the UFC and when he should've retired a long time ago. What happens to skeletons when he hit them... ?

Answer: they break !   weak chin Brown will be forced to retire

Too bad this can't be in Charlotte. Was looking forward to seeing Dern. 😢

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Bigi Boy will have no answer for how Jailton enters into his takedowns and will expose himself to a submission in one of the first grappling exchanges.

Rodriguez vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R3
This is a big step up for Garry and he has been gun-shy in some fights, but he can outlast D-rod and is probably the more technical guy.

Williams vs. Sherman
Karl Williams, TKO, R2
At first I thought Williams easy, but he is untested and Sherman can at least move well for a heavyweight. But Karl has more power and can wrestle, whereas Sherman has really bad defensive wrestling, so I still think he takes it.

Smith vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
I don't like the way Smith reacts to getting hit anymore, the way he lost to Ankalaev tells me he most likely only has a few more fights left, while Walker is hittable he is on the better end of his career.

Rodriguez vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
Ian Garry uses his better striking to out point D-Rod to a clear decision. Potential for too quick of a turnaround for Garry however you have to like his ability to maintain composure and technique at this stage of his career. D-Rod brings enough power to make his pressure and gritty approach respectable at all times, Garry will most likely be a touch too fast in the end.

Ulberg vs. Potieria
Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R2
Expecting Ulberg to be the better striker in a fight that most likely remains standing. Potieria tends to break down in his engagements after the first round, where Ulberg will have been able to figure out his timing and last something to put him away.

Means vs. Morono
Alex Morono, DEC
Means could be on his last fight. if Alex figures out how to get past his range and put his hands together he may crack him before the final bell, however I think the younger and prime fighter will stay patient after a knockout in his last one and find a unanimous decision.

Brown vs. McGee
Court McGee, DEC
McGee will take advantage of Matt Brown's almost non existent takedown defense these days. Court can play it safe and clinch and grapple his way to a clear decision.

Williams vs. Sherman
Karl Williams, DEC
Karl Williams by superior grappling as Chase Sherman has no idea what he's doing on the mat. I'm not quite sure Williams has the finishing ability yet in his career so I'm picking decision.

Stamann vs. Silva de Andrade
Cody Stamann, DEC
I look at each and they both only really lose to the best in the division. Douglas is the older fighter however the tape shows me he has intangibles that I think can overcome what Stamann does, whose approach and timing can be predictable, Silva matches his pace and his power wins in the moments. It's just as easy to see Stamann winning with pace and boxing, though.

Levy vs. Rodriguez
Pete Rodriguez, TKO, R1
Rodriguez seems to carry a lot of power and an ability to land it, he's moving down for the first time to LW against Levy. While Levy can stay technical and use his range and grappling, his defensive deficiencies will get him hit while trying to find space in the small cage against Rodriguez's pressure.

Kim vs. Böhm
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
I thought I'd never pick Ji Yeon Kim in a fight in the UFC but here we are. This fight could likely be very close and will undoubtedly go to decision, Fire Fist will edge it with experience.

Green vs. Battle
Gabe Green, DEC
Green in his prime against a developing Battle. Battle is too hard to finish for the level that Green brings, wanting to see the ceremonial face offs for this one. Battle does have size but for now I'm feeling Green will edge it, though promotionally the UFC want to develop Battle and get him wins.

Clark vs. Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa, SUB, R1
Lisboa has already fought and experienced the level of competition of Valentina (Kickboxing) and Norma Dumont, her ground game is good enough to catch Clark in something in one of the early scrambles. Could easily see a decision as well. Maybe one of my dogs on the card but I can't ever side with a fighter with an onlyfans unless it's against a taxi driver or someone else who also has one.

Retire please. You are too old

Guys do you think size plays and advantage in the Walker fight? Walker should be bigger. I like Anthony Smith but don't know what to make of him.

Mezzorrrrr.... Meeeezzzzooorrrrr... where are youuu

Bigi boy for absolute destruction. Pity on Jailton 

Uptil now I thought Biggi Boy had a chance. Now I know you have picked him I know he is dead man walking 

Walker got kod by Corey he should be a librarian or go back to dancing end of story.
Smith is so many levels above and most his recent losses are to titlists and an injury to a contender.

Like your breakdowns on these fights.

Curious why you don't think Smith has the power to finish Walker? Walker's chin can be non-existent and Smith only has 5 decisions in over 50 fights.

To me this fight has finish written all over it. These guys have 3 decision wins combined in 80 fights.

It feels more like a fight where Walker hurts Smith and makes him quit again or Johnny get's chinned. And even if Johnny doesn't go out cold Smith is live for the club and sub.

I think the co main is pretty over-discussed. Smith is washed, its simply Walker by KO. 

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
Malhadinhooooo, very excited for this fight and excited for Almeida to get himself near the top of hw finally. Such a monster and so exciting to watch. I think Bigi is underrated and obviously has the ko power to flatline Jailton but ultimately I don’t think that saves him from getting mauled and then subbed or ground and pound tko’d. I will say though if Bigi can read Jailton’s go to front kick into the takedown and time it with an uppercut or knee it could be lights out for Jailton

Smith vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
Really tough fight to pick, Lionheart is the ultimate vet and is overall better the Walker but Walker’s freak athleticism and unpredictability will find him a ko. Walker’s chin is a worry for me which is why this is a tossup but I still think he finds the finish

Rodriguez vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, DEC
This should be a nice showcase for Garry. Drod is a beast and has slick boxing but Garry is the cleaner and simply better striker. Garry can find success grappling too but either way should be a W for Machado

Ulberg vs. Potieria
Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R2
Absolute mismatch, don’t think Ihor is terrible but he is sloppy on the feet and Ulberg is a way too clean and powerful kickboxer. Ulberg will find the knockout here easily.

Means vs. Morono
Alex Morono, DEC
Means is tough but Morono simply outworks him on the outside

Brown vs. McGee
Matt Brown, TKO, R2
Battle of the vets, McGee is coming off of a brutal ko loss to Wells and I think his durability is fading. I’ll take The Immortal by ko in a dogfight

Williams vs. Sherman
Karl Williams, TKO, R2
Same prediction for this one as a few weeks ago when it was originally scheduled. Karl will handle Sherman and I think the 1st round is competitive but Williams has success wrestling and then finished Sherman when he inevitably gasses

Stamann vs. Silva de Andrade
Douglas Silva de Andrade, TKO, R2
Another tossup for me, Stamann is pretty well rounded and will have the wrestling advantage here but just has trouble pulling away in fights without a finish. Silva is very powerful and even though Stamann is yet to be ko’d I think Silva can find Cody’s chin in the pocket when they eventually trade. Could see Stamann winning with his wrestling but going to side with the dog here.

Levy vs. Rodriguez
Natan Levy, SUB, R2
Honestly not sure about this one. Rodriguez has solid boxing and power but we really haven’t seen how he looks past the 1st round. On other hand Levy has no cardio but will have an advantage on the ground. I slightly favor Levy because of that and think he can find the sub, also simply just don’t think Rodriguez is good

Kim vs. Böhm
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
Bohm lost to Leonardo thats all I needed to see for her to be an auto fade

Green vs. Battle
Bryan Battle, DEC
Battle gets it done at home. He got mauled last fight but Rinat is a monster and Gabe Green is nowhere near as good as him, Battle should be the better fighter and get the win

Clark vs. Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa, SUB, R2
Lisboa is a bit of an unknown but does have some submission wins and JRC does not have good sub defense as we’ve seen in her last two fights

Hard to say Smith is washed when he's only lost is to Magomed Ankaliev who an elite fighter and Smith never beat the elite fighter, Also to add to that, People may say he did **** all agaist Ankaliev, He also did **** all against Jones and Rakic and that was a while back, Smith usully beat the non elite by finish and that what he still doing, Maybe this is the fight where he washed, Becuase Smith has been fighting for a while, But they're no evidence of it 

Tl:DR, It hard to say someone washed when they doing the same thing now as they're doing in they're prime in Smith case, Or in D-Rod case fighting the hardest guy in his career 

Almeida SUB rd 1
Almeida has 13 1st rd finishes and he can either KO Biggie Boi or choke him to sleep.  I think he takes Rozenstruik to the mat, softens him up, takes him to lala land.

Johnny Walker, TKO rd 3
Walker has come into his own the last couple fights while Smith is looking to get his first win in 2 years. Walker is no slouch on the mat either as a BJJ brown belt (Smith is a purple belt).  Smith has a lot of miles on that body and his strike differential is -1.38, so he's gonna get tagged.

Ian Garry, DEC
D-Rod is a tough opponent and has the tools to dispose of Garry, who is VERY hittable.  Both like to stand and bang, and both are tough, I dont see Garry KOing D-Rod, but I also dont see D-Rod turning up the intensity and giving Garry fits.

Alex Morono, DEC
Tim Means is getting old.  He's the second oldest fighter on the card.  He's also coming off 2 losses.  I really think age is Mean's biggest enemy.  A 33 year old Tim Means?  winner.

Court McGee, DEC
Senior Fight Night as the 42 year old Immortal faces off against the 38 year old Timex.  It's kill or be killed for Matt Brown, unfortunately, I just dont think he can pull the kill switch anymore. I dont believe Matt Brown has that KO power anymore. Court can grind him down on points.

Karl Williams, DEC
Karl Williams is better than Chase in every department.  The problem is, Karl's finish rate sucks.  I can see Karl taking Chase down multiple times and scoring points for 3 rounds.

Cody Stamann, DEC
Cody has a positive strike differential, better strike accuracy, better strike defense and 91% of Andrade's attacks come from standing, so this is going to be a back and forth affair with Cody getting the better of each round.

Carlos Ulberg, TKO rd 1
Carlos has 5 wins by KO; 4 1st rd finishes.  Potieria has 9 wins by KO; 12 1st rd finishes.  Needless to say, this fight will not go the distance.  But Ulberg has a +4.74 strike differential compared to Potieria's -0.73, which means Uilberg lands 5 punches for every 1 that Potieria lands.  Good night!

Natan Levy, DEC
Im not confident about this pick.  Pete Rodriguez is a wreckless striker, with 10.37 strikes landed per minute...but the dude absorbs 11.69 strikes per minute...that's a lot of damage both ways.  Rodriguez has 100% takedown defense which will be tested Saturday, because Levy attempts 5.37 takedowns per fight.  I dont think Levy can secure a finish and I dont think Rodriguez can deal with all the wrestling.

Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
If there is a fighter in a "MUST WIN" scenario, it's Ji Yeon Kim.  Coming off a 4 fight losing streak, its sionara for Kim if she loses to Bohm.  the UFC is offering Kim a layup here, lets hope she doesnt **** it up.

Gabe Green, DEC
Battle is bigger, taller, a slightly more accurate striker, but sloppy strike defense and a proclivity to be taken down.  you'd think Battle likes to fight on the ground, but only 1% of his significant strikes come from the ground.  I think Green outworks Battle and uses takedowns for control securing a DEC win.

Tainara Lisboa, TKO rd 3
I have lost all confidence in Jessica-Rose Clark.  Lisboa has the reach advantage, Lisboa has a finish rate of 100% compared to Clark's 45%.  

* Edited at 05.10.2023, 7:43 PM ET *

Except Henry actually won you mutt. Aljo is the luckiest son of a gun being gifted every fight he lost.

Please tell me your picks. I want to replace Mezzor with you. Tell me so I can bet the otherside quickly before the lines move