UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
I want Bigi Boi to win but I have to pick Almeida. He's gonna shoot for a takedown instantly and wrap up a submission. Jair has awful takedown defense and always will. I'll be rooting for Bigi Boi though.

Smith vs. Walker
Anthony Smith, SUB, R2
I'm a huge fan of both guys but I gotta lean Smith. Walker has that round 1 dangerous power and moves but Smith is a dog and will break Johnny if it gets out of the first. A true 50/50. I think Smith hits Johnny with something hard and then subs him in the second.

Rodriguez vs. Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry, TKO, R2
I could see Rodriguez knocking Garry out but I could also see Garry knocking him out. I'm gonna take Garry to win by Knockout and counter D-Rod with a huge punch. Garry got absolutely melted by one of the worst fighters on the roster in his last fight so I wouldn't be shocked if Rodriguez pulls off this upset honestly cause he's extremely good but he's a little too slow with his movement.

Means vs. Morono
Alex Morono, DEC
I gotta go with Morono here just cause he's way younger and Means looks done. I'm a huge Means fan and I hope he wins but I just don't see it

Brown vs. McGee
Court McGee, DEC
I'll take McGee to mix in takedowns and just put a pace on Brown to win a decision. 50/50 though.

Williams vs. Sherman
Karl Williams, DEC
Williams should be able to finish him cause Sherman has the worst ground game in the UFC but I have a feeling it's still gonna go to a decision.

Stamann vs. Silva de Andrade
Cody Stamann, DEC
I lean Stamann just cause he has great wrestling and can hold his own on the feet. The only thing I'm worried about is the strength and power of Douglas. Should be a close one but it'll be fun.

Ulberg vs. Potieria
Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R1
Lmao come on. Easy knockout for Ullberg. This isn't even a fair matchup. I guess that's what happens when you face an old man and KO him quickly.

Levy vs. Rodriguez
Pete Rodriguez, TKO, R1
Rodriguez is gonna close the distance and knock Levy out cold. Levy has decent range and a cool karate style but he's hittable.

Kim vs. Böhm
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
I like Kim I think he's actually ok for the bottom end of the division. UFC needs to cut Böhm already. BELLATOR didn't even want her...

Green vs. Battle
Gabe Green, DEC
Battle has awful tdd. Green can win on the feet and the ground.

Clark vs. Lisboa
Tainara Lisboa, DEC
Clark isn't very good. Lisboa should be able to beat her pretty easily.

Clark vs. Lisboa
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
Best part of this study was watching Shevchenko destroy Lisboa in Muay Thai 13 years ago.. Only way I see Lisboa winning this is if Jessica is injured.

Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R2
U 1.5

Smith vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, SUB, R3
O 1.5

Rodriguez vs. Machado Garry
Daniel Rodriguez, TKO, R2
U 2.5

Means vs. Morono
Tim Means, DEC
O 2.5

Brown vs. McGee
Matt Brown, SUB, R2
O 2.5

Williams vs. Sherman
Karl Williams, TKO, R1
U 2.5

Stamann vs. Silva de Andrade
Douglas Silva de Andrade, DEC
O 2.5

Ulberg vs. Potieria
Carlos Ulberg, DEC
U 1.5

Levy vs. Rodriguez
Pete Rodriguez, TKO, R2
O 1.5

So we've got 5 Orthodox v. Southpaw on this card--D-Rod/Garry, Means/Morono, Ulberg/Poteria, Green/Battle, and Levy/Rodriguez.  Lot of good openings for some of the striker-kicker and puncher-counter puncher matchups.  FYI

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 11:28 AM ET *

Thanks. 


I actually don't mind when people point out functionality I didn't consider.

I love the throwback feel of the main event. Two large fellas who are 100% dedicated to their style of fighting. Jarizinho is not about to be shooting for takedowns and looking for submissions regardless of who he fights. Almeida is going to strike to set up his takedowns only. He is not going to be engaging in any striking only battles if he can avoid it. 

This sets up a real fun dynamic for this fight. The winner will be who dictates where and how the fight takes place. I do not see Almeida out striking Jarzinho nor do I see Jairzinho out grappling Almeida if the fight hits the mat needless to say. 

I love a fight between two well rounded fighters as much as the next fella, I also like turtles, but sometimes a throwback feel to a fight where both fighters have 1 real clear avenue to victory can be really fun as well. 

I think this all comes down to the first round. In more way than 1. If Jairzinho can stuff 3 or 4 takedowns in the opening frame it will be great for his style of fight. However, with Jairzinho being such a counter striker it will give Almeida time to catch his breath and find another opportunity to shoot in. This will lead to him finding a takedown eventually. Yeah Jairzinho has never been submitted but that is not because he is impossible to submit or anything silly, a lot of that was based on the style of grapplers that he has faced thus far. 

Even if Jairzinho stuffs some early takedowns I see Almeida getting him down and submitting him eventually. Jairzinho's best bet to win is landing a precise and perfect counter to a sloppy takedown or a telegraphed strike, most likely a kick from Almeida

I think 8 out of 10 times Almeida wins this fight and most of those wins would be via submission or ground and pound from the back mount. 

Either way it will be a fun throwback style HW fight! That or it will be a staring contest as Jairzinho is all about counter striking and Almeida will be looking for the perfect time to shoot a takedown but is hesitant to set it up with his strikes in fear of being countered. I pray that is not the case!

@gliese58i
No worries man, have a good one !

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 11:52 AM ET *

Green vs. Battle
Gabe Green, TKO, R2
After watching tape I would have to say Gabe Green is much more well rounded than Bryan Battle. If Green fights like he did against Ian Garry with forward pressure he will stop Battles kicks from being effective and I think will knock out any fight IQ Battle might have after a couple clean shots to the head.

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 12:44 PM ET *

https://www.ufc.com/news/jairzinho-rozenstruik-all-positivity-main-event-ufc-fight-night-charlotte

I think ostansofty reported it lol

im going p rod d rod for my **** it pick so bet the opposite

Means vs. Morono
Alex Morono, DEC
Means is just gonna get lit up for 3 rounds. He's not as fast he was and he's regressed in every aspect. Morono is actually a top 20 welterweight so I see him winning a non competitive decision

Williams vs. Sherman
Karl Williams, DEC
Chase Sherman is a bum. Enough said

Stamann vs. Silva de Andrade
Cody Stamann, DEC
Close fight. I really like Douglas but I feel like he's gonna outworked in this one. Cody is well rounded but doesn't do anything super well. But I think if he can avoid the power and keep it well rounded he will win a easy decision

Levy vs. Rodriguez
Natan Levy, SUB, R2
Pete is an exciting guy and is always will be appreciated for sending Mike Jackson to the shadow realm, however he is not UFC ready. Especially in the grappling department where that will get tested. I think Levy gets him down early and often before getting a sub in the 2nd

Kim vs. Böhm
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
Both are bad but there is levels to trash. And as far as it goes Kim is the higher level bum. She actually has some decent hands despite being pretty slow. She has good volume as well. For Bohm I struggle to find anything good about her. Awful striking, worse grappling, horrific clinch game etc. Everything is just bad. She hasn't won a round in the UFC so far and not against what you'd call stellar competition. Should be 30-27 Kim

Green vs. Battle
Bryan Battle, DEC
Hard to say here. Both guys are about in the same tier but have different skillsets. Battle likes to play the point fighting game. He uses his length well and likes to counter. Green is the opposite, he's looking to come forward and land big shots on you from the jump. In the process he leaves himself open but it's mostly effective. Overall I think Battle will be able to fight from the outside and pick Green apart

Clark vs. Lisboa
Jessica-Rose Clark, DEC
This is a tough one. I'd probably pick Lisboa if she didn't have that horrific record against opponents with winning records but alas she's only won against cans. I think JRC wins a sloppy decision

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 3:00 PM ET *

Levy vs. Rodriguez
Pete Rodriguez, TKO, R1
Natan Levy is the more technical striker but has holes in his defense and gasses himself out quickly. Pete Rodriguez is a good power striker and from what short amount of minutes I've seen him fighting is the more dominant wrestler which if his gas tank is tested should prove beneficial if this gets out of the 1st round.

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 3:19 PM ET *

Ulberg vs. Potieria
Carlos Ulberg, TKO, R2
Ulberg much more seasoned technical fighter and will pick apart Potieria. Ihor does have decent hail mary attacks but I don't think they will get to Ulberg.

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 4:28 PM ET *

Bro his name is Ostan softy. What do you expect. I don't know where these clowns come from.

On a more positive note Tartara is back after getting banned on both Tapology and Sherdog. Lol.

Also where us Mezzor. Since he left I haven't been doing so good with my picks 

* Edited at 05.09.2023, 4:59 PM ET *

@rah true point. I have a feeling tartar sauce time will be short lived too🤣