UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Look, it's really strange to see Rah, Andrew and Baremaras talking **** to each other and, all of a sudden, being friends and agreeing about nearly everything.

If it's the same person with 3 different accounts, I don't know, but they do seem to really know about MMA. These 3 + Ayy are always dropping great betting tips here.

The thing is their style of betting is based on who is the better fighter. Sometimes, we get great lines, sometimes, we don't.

For instance, guys right here are discussing about Umar. Yeah, I think he wins, cause he has better kicks, knows how to move in the octagon and has that wrestling pedigree that we can't deny. On the other hand, Raoni has the power advantage, but is much older, doesn't move that well and doesn't seem to have a better gas tank than Umar.  Should Umar be that much of a favorite ? Hell no, but it is what it is. It's better to take Umar as a parlay piece or even the over 1.5 for this fight (it'll be probably around the same value as the ML on Umar). Umar Sub or Decision is also a great bet imo. 

We should be working here to make great money for all of us. I've only been here for a short time, but I'm learning with the best. 

Ok I'm a bit slow. Which is mini Eddie?

Lol thank you and I hear you. We should all be working together to rip the bookies a new one this year. Especially after all the shady **** we had to deal with last year... from freak injuries to betting scandals to the God awful judges and reffing... we deserve payback... and that starts this weekend!

As for Bananas and Andrew, yeah true we started off on the wrong foot and argued a lot. But we actually think alike so we have actually become freinds and allies. And we actually often have very similar picks.

Similarly with me and Ayy.. we went at each other a while ago.. but now I respect his opinion a lot and actually like him. I guess opinions can change.

Oh now I get it. Lol! Good call 

* Edited at 01.09.2023, 11:14 AM ET *

i'm the modern O.J. Simpson. I will gladly put the figurative black glove on just to prove I'm not rah or andrew or any of the people currently posting or anyone posting in support of me. Gregory can check my IP as long as he doesn't reveal it to anyone (that would literally be doxxing) and see for himself it doesn't match

is it so hard to believe there's 3 geniuses that mostly agree with their picks? the only hard part to believe about this situation is that 3 geniuses are choosing to share their wisdom on tapology of all places but yes, we're here to do exactly that: make this a better place for everyone.

also about betting, lines, units etc if you guys are going to keep 1 thing and 1 thing only from my posts I suggest that you only keep the actual prediction comments/analysis I post every now and then on fights that intrigue me whenever I get free time. I understand material possessions at the end of the day do not mean much and betting at the end of the day has a certain amount of luck factored into it by default (it wouldn't be fair otherwise would it?) so just for the love of the game, the love of the sport and the love of the actual competition that is taking place, my only suggestion is: if you're going to pay attention to 1 thing from everything I say, let it be my prediction comments and if you're going to attack me let it be my actual analysis that you're attacking

* Edited at 01.09.2023, 11:47 AM ET *

My bets for this weekend I’m rocking with:

Umar x rebecki x basharat as the banker easy money to be made

Soriano x umar x basharat FDGTD x rebecki FDGTD

Basharat FDGTD x rebecki FDGTD x umar fight over x 1.5 imavov fight over 1.5

And I’ve got a few other smaller stake bets but these are mainly the ones I’m backing nicely 

Umar is just better than barcelos everywhere respectfully I can see a 30-27 for him in this fight I don’t see him completely dominating him because barcelos is no scrub but he will get the better of him in pretty much every department and win the majority of the rounds 

rebecki is an absolute dog once it hits the ground he will be looking to finish the fight  and from what I’ve seen of fiore he has simply not been tested he’s fought scrubs and rebecki is not the guy he wants to be tested against first because his main strength will be completely neutered out I’m predicting a first round finish for Rebecki

Basharat is just a beast he’s got very creditable grappling and  his striking reminds me abit like the old McGregor just without the one punch knockout power he sets up his shots very nicely and doesn’t leave himself too open to be countered 
And I really do think he gets the finish here from what I’ve seen from mendonca he’s got the speed and power to cause a lot of people problems but he is young and reckless and does leave himself open a lot to be hit which I think basharat will capitalise on massively I’m predicting either a second round or late third stoppage for basharat here 

Let us know what you think people and best of luck  to everyone on weekend wether you a hater or not I hope we all smash it this weekend time to kick the ufc year off properly 

I'll just say that in terms of when people join Tapology, there could be outside factors that cause several people to join at the same time. For example if someone influential in the betting community made a tweet about Tapology, or something like that, you could see a bunch of people register that day to check it out.

I have no idea why any particular person on this thread registered when they did. Just pointing out that sometimes there might be common factors that a) aren't simply a coincidence, but b) don't mean there's something nefarious going on.

I don't personally bet on combat sports. A long time ago I messed around a little bit for fun, but it's probably been over 10 years since I've placed an MMA bet.

With that caveat, my opinion is that talking about units is generally the more sensible way to look at things. Obviously a lot of people like to boast about how big their bankroll is and how much they won. That's human nature, so it's not surprising that a lot of people like to talk dollars and not units.

But units is how you can compare apples to apples in terms of how one person that might have $1,000 is doing vs. another person that might have $100,000. And when you talk about risk management and how to think mathematically about your betting, it makes more sense IMHO to do that in percentages (e.g. units) rather than absolute dollars.

Just my perspective!

Me either. I rarely might bet with a local friend a $20 or something of that nature but that’s about it.

In other words...
nothing is going to change... !?

only thing that needs to change is you getting permanently banned

* Edited at 01.09.2023, 2:12 PM ET *

Gastelum vs. Imavov
Nassourdine Imavov, DEC
imavov is very well trained

Cachoeira vs. Eubanks
Priscila Cachoeira, TKO, R1
didnt even know sijar eubanks was in the ufc still

https://coub.com/view/31oc0z

Javid Basharat is not bad. But despite this he showed +/- a close fight with Trevin Jones, which is terrible striker. Basharat shoot on points Gravley and Jones, but its so bad strikers. 
And how you can rate Mateus Mendonca striking technique, if his last full fight was more than 2 years ago, and the fight on the DWCS lasted less than a minute? In my opinion during this time he still managed to show that he is not as terrible as he was 2 years ago.

Mendonca has been fighting Muay Thai matches during the 2 year gap he had from MMA so it's not like he totally abandoned the sport 

I think Mendonca has everything it takes to be a legit prospect in the UFC but I simply do not think the experience is there, Basharat is on a whole other level when it comes to the grappling and offensively his striking is really good as well.  He does hang his chin up in the air a lot which might be an issue against Mendonca but as long as he sticks to the grappling and makes it out of r1, I think he's going to win a comfortable decision or even a submission potentially

also, Tony Gravely and Trevin Jones are waaaay better than their records suggest. 

Trevin Jones especially is a pretty good striker but his grappling and fight iq are a bit lacking. specifically, Jones has huuge wins over touted prospects like Valiev and Bautista while his UFC losses are against top tier dudes like Barcelos and Kakhramonov who had to rely on his wrestling to win. plus, a lot of his regional losses are ******** split decision losses that he should have won, realistically trevin jones' record should be something like 16-6 with 3 of those losses being to elite guys

Tony Gravely on the other hand even during his comeup fighting regionally, he's still only lost to suuuper high level guys. Ricky Bandejas, Merab, Patchy Mix all these dudes would go on to have very successful careers. also worth noting that tony gravely is 5'5 and has to fight with a severe size disadvantage in almost every single contest he's in.


now, if you wanna argue that the odds are skewed and basharat shouldn't be that huge of a favorite, I agree completely - that seems to be the betting theme on this card with dudes being waaay bigger favorites than they should be

* Edited at 01.09.2023, 3:38 PM ET *