UFC 282: Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Mitchell vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, TKO, R2
Going with Topuria him. He's better on the feet and won't have to face a huge reach disadvantage as in the Herbert fight. He might also be able to stuff the majority of Bryce's takedowns, so what Bryce will have to offer other than that ?

Perrin vs. Rosas Jr.
Raul Rosas Jr., SUB, R3
I'm going with El Niño Problema here, but we could see a major upset. Perrin is not that high level, but he has good ground game and he'll probably be better on the feet... The thing is Raul loves to wrestle, so if sticks to that on this one it'll be better for him.

Ponzi was going to smoke Lawler. Morono is a great replacement who now has a phenomenal opportunity. 

I'm extremely torn on Topuria/Mitchell. My picks have been pretty terrible all year so I'm almost certainly going to get that one wrong. 

Dosent Rosas-Perrin and Salvador-Da Silva feel axactly like Yazmin-Istela and Marshall-Rojo from last week

Till vs. Du Plessis
Darren Till, TKO, R2
Surely after all this time off recovering and training with Khamzat for so long you would think Till's takedown defense has gotten somehow better. If it has the KO is there Till's striking is so much crisper than Du Plessis and the chin of Du Plessis is always up in the air begging to get cracked.

Mitchell vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, SUB, R2
Topuria will destroy Mitchell with body shots in the first round and as he starts to go for more Mitchell shoots in for badly timed takedown causing him to get caught in a guillotine.

Rozenstruik vs. Daukaus
Jairzinho Rozenstruik, TKO, R1
Daukaus has finally reached his ceiling and its nowhere near rankings. If Rozenstruik let's his hands go it should be over sooner rather than later.

Curtis vs. Buckley
Joaquin Buckley, DEC
Curtis is too stationary in his fights and needs his opponents to stand still while picks his shots. The athleticism and footwork of Buckley will make a big difference in this fight leaving Curtis extremely frustrated like he was in his last fight.

da Silva vs. Salvador
Vinicius Salvador, TKO, R1
Da Silva literally has 0 fight IQ and gets way too over excited when he has his opponent hurt and for that reason Salvador will counter Da Silva. Sending Da Silva home getting finished in all of his UFC fights.

Darren Till by KO....interesting.

Błachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Magomed Ankalaev, TKO, R2
I hate Ankalaev's style but he's gonna decapitate both Jan and Glover and set up a massive fight with Jiri on his return.

Pimblett vs. Gordon
Paddy Pimblett, SUB, R3
I don't think people realize how big of a step up this is, Gordon is 4-1 in his last 5 with the only loss being to Grant Dawson. I think Paddy wins a controversial decision that could've gone either way.

Till vs. Du Plessis
Dricus Du Plessis, DEC
Hope I'm wrong but can't pick Till, he looks out of shape and has had a million injuries. Du Plessis is unorthodox but legit. I predict a kinda depressing knockout here.

Mitchell vs. Topuria
Ilia Topuria, TKO, R1
Out cold

Shahbazyan vs. Lungiambula
Edmen Shahbazyan, SUB, R1
Edmen ITD at even odds is money.

Absolutely hate this fight for Bryce... Want him to win so bad but Topuria is just too darn good. All around stellar athlete. Gonna be a hell of a fight though. Hoping Bryce Proves us all wrong

Pimblett vs. Gordon
Paddy Pimblett, SUB, R2
praying for gordon to figure out how to crack for this one

Till vs. Du Plessis
Darren Till, TKO, R2
I really feel like im missing something with DDP, I really can not understand the hype. He's got good power but abysmal footwork and cant even open his eyes when a punch is coming much less move his head

Shahbazyan vs. Lungiambula
Edmen Shahbazyan, TKO, R1
two of the front-running-est front runners

Silva vs. Brown
Erik Silva, DEC
just a few more years on erick silva and hell be champion guys i promise

Just a heads up... TJ Brown's line went from +150 to now a pick-em... most of the public and Tapology is on Silva so tread carefully betting that fight. Silva should be a -180 or something like that so I'm not sure what is going on.

Btw, Paddy will eventually meet his "Marlon Vera" one day soon but Jared Gordon is not that guy.  Topuria however...

* Edited at 12.07.2022, 3:46 PM ET *

silva is just unknown. 

and he is older for a debutant

thats probably why they took the + money on tj brown

Topuria would behead paddy, the ufc isnt making that fight any time in the next 8 or so years

Paddy and Topuria at the same conference... oh boy.

UFC 282 Press Conference

Who:Jan Błachowicz| Magomed Ankalaev| Paddy Pimblett| Jared Gordon| Darren Till| Dricus du Plessis| Bryce Mitchell| Ilia Topuria
When:Thursday, December 8 at 8pm ET/5pm PT (doors open at 4pm PT)
Where:MGM Grand Garden Arena
Watch:LIVE on UFC.com, YouTube, Facebook and Twitch

* Edited at 12.07.2022, 3:54 PM ET *

Curtis is probably the safest, most profitable bet from this card, aside from Billy Quarantillo. It seems fairly even on paper giving their similar reaches, both being southpaws and have heavy hands, but Chris carries a stronger resume with more experience and while I don’t find him particularly interesting, is the more technically sound of the two men. You look at the people Chris has beaten compared to Buckley and it’s night and day. Buckley also has inconsistent performances even in fights he wins (struggled in the first round against Impa and almost lost his fight with Arroyo) and is too wild for his own good. He also has a 34% striking accuracy, while Curtis is 58%. Considering Buckley’s issue getting caught in the middle of a crossfire and having generally sloppy footwork, I could only really see this going in his favor if he landed the hard shot first, which is probable, but still very unlikely. 

Oh, btw, if you look up Chris’s stats on the UFC’s official website, it states that Chris fights from orthodox….despite the fact he is clearly a southpaw. ***? 

* Edited at 12.07.2022, 3:57 PM ET *

I'm lazy so I'll just repost what I said about Brown elsewhere about a week ago to give some context to what is happening to the line. This was before the Krause stuff exploded:

TJ Brown is a moderate dog vs Erik Silva at UFC 282. He is 3 years younger (32 vs 35) and an american wrestler, main training partner of Bryce Mitchell. Also trained under Krause.
Silva background in traditional martial arts in Venezuela, karate etc. started training at his dad's gym in Venezuela, stopped for a bit then trained at his dad's new gym in Costa Rica.

Brown has 25 professional mma fights vs 10 for Silva. It's Silva's UFC debut, 6th UFC fight for Brown. Silva though he has some skills on the mat, was easilly taken down by one can he faced on the regional scene (can't find much footage of him overall). Unknown how Silva performs cardio wise across a potential 3 rounds since he's finished his last 5 in the first.
Brown has 2.5 inches of reach advantage according to tap.

TLDR hard fight to cap with the lack of info on Silva but there is just such a wealth of statistics that all point in favor of Brown that I think he's worth money as a dog, I bet him at +136 but his lines are getting bet down.

@gliese58i, thanks for the info.  

Guys, don't underestimate Steven Koslow's skills

Yeah Curtis is a good bet, 2n round ko smells like money.

I just realized this but they made Rosas the featured prelim fight. They clearly want his hype train to work