Matchmaking (mostly post-UFC 276.2: Yair vs. Ortega)

So the MMA gods found the one way Yair could win the main event definitively and yet not surge into the lead for the next FW title shot. Personally I think the idea of Volk fighting whoever wins Oliveira/Makhachev to be laughable. Maybe if Oliveira wins but the fighter moving up should fight a legit contender first so I wouldn't make it. If the division hasn't made progress by the time his hand heals they could rethink it but I see plenty of contenders ready for LW. 

I like the idea of Yair/Emmett for an interim title to put pressure on Volk to defend (or vacate) because I see plenty of contenders at LW but that makes matching the 5 undefeated FW prospects difficult without sacrificing at least 2 in a fight vs. each other. 

Allen, Evloev, Mitchell, Topuria, and Lerone Murphy are the order I would rank prospects. Jung might retire, Max might be done at FW, Ortega's out for awhile so that leaves Kattar, Ige, and Barboza who are all coming off losses but would still be good "scalps" for the prospects, and Yair and Emmett to match up with Allen and Evloev. So: 

Yair vs. Allen
Emmett vs. Evloev
Mitchell vs. Ige   I rank Kattar higher but I just think Ige would be more fun plus see next line
Topuria vs. Kattar  because I'm a fan of Mitchell and I think Kattar beats both
Lerone Murphy vs. Barboza 

Burgos vs. the winner of Sodiq/Giga
Jourdain vs. Hooker

Algeo vs. Erosa

Lemos vs. Marina or Rose
Waterson vs. loser of Vlismas/Ricci
Ducote vs. Karolina 

Well this has certainly been a ****** couple of weeks for the main event favorites. 

Paddy has a wide range of options. Azaitar (2-0 UFC) seems the best matchup but not my choice. Time to find out how his star power handles a probable loss because I have 4 fighters on my cheat sheet of LWs listed just below Paddy and Azaitar who could all beat Paddy so why not give him someone he should lose to? The 4 fighters I mentioned are Jamie Mullarkey, Mike Davis, Matt Frevola, and Des Green. Green especially, along with Jalin Turner and Fiziev are probably the worst stylistic matchups for him but I could see Paddy hanging with those who mainly want to grapple**** him like Dawson or Solecki, or possibly even Madsen and Gillespie. I saw someone suggest Jim Miller and while I don't think that would go well for him, it's certainly as winnable as some of the others I've mentioned and I don't think a loss to someone that experienced and/or highly ranked would damage his star power as long as he doesn't get trucked. 


My choice would be Joe Solecki. 

Pearce and Wood would actually be a good matchup test for both: How does Pearce handle a better striker with good tdd and how does Wood handle a bigger pressure grappler now that he's moved up to FW. 

Dawodu would be a good matchup for Pearce but I think that fight would be pretty boring. 

I find that in a vacuum it's better to match up winners with winners and losers with fighters coming off a loss. Doesn't have to be a hard and fast rule but should usually be followed. So many matchmakers (On To The Next One for example) seem to break this guideline for the majority of their picks and I, for one, don't agree with it. With more experienced fighters or in shallower divisions it's more likely to be necessary but for at least WW thru BW, it's far more likely that it can be followed.

Matt Frevola vs paddy would be a banger and not a crazy step up for paddy. That should be next