UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@gliese depends but Zalal isn't very thick or muscled up. 
So he'd be cutting 10 extra lbs of what little muscle he has left on his frame.

On the other hand Blackshear is quite strong, most of his wrestling is out strengthening the opponent. 
That's why Sabatello ran a technique clinic on him, you can't out strengthen techinally better wrestlers with high success.


Also Blackshear has been making massive improvements all around since going to Jackson Winks MMA, Zalal is also very young still finding his game. UFC knew what they were doing, this is a real test both ways.

* Edited at 08.10.2022, 1:04 AM ET *

Yeah I don't have that much material on Blackshear but I capped it around 60/40 in favor of Zalal. Got him at -110, line has moved a bit now. Should be a good dog spot for Blackshear if you think it will be close.

These are my early predictions. Could change with weight ins. Will do the prelims later.
This card is a little more tricky than I first thought but I think there are good reasons to pick each fight.

1. Vera (Decision)
This is probably the most difficult fight to pick on the card for me. Imo it basically comes down to 2 factors. Vera depends on scoring damage to win. Cruz depends on evasiveness, avoiding being hit and volume. So basically Cruz needs to keep distance and be mobile. And Vera needs to slow him down and hit him. Sounds simple lol! The main issue I think is that Cruz is now older and slightly less speedy. Also if Vera keeps hitting him with leg kicks as I think he will that will affect him. Cruz does not have the power to stop Vera and even if he out volumes him the damage will be more apparent from Vera's strikes. The wrestling/grappling will cancel each other out I feel and this will mainly be decided on the feet. It will be very close but I think I like Vera to take a close decison or a late finish.

2. Onama (KO)
Again a close one. But as much as I love Nate, I am going with Onama. He is big, has a reach advantage, may be faster, has a great chin and good cardio and will be the better striker. As we have seen Nate can get clipped and put out and when he charges forward he could eat a shot. I am sure Nate will try to force the pace and pressure Onama with volume and wrestling but I think at some point he will eat a shot and go down.

3. Silva (KO)
This fight could be closer than the odds suggest but I very much doubt we see the score cards. Silva should be able to crack GM3 and put him out, his striking and power is too good. But he does tend to get caught in submissions despite being a black belt so I am a little cautious. That said I expect him to keep it standing and smack up GM3 who definitely does not have a good chin and will be much slower.

4.  Azamat (KO)
I think too much should not be read into Azamat's last fight against Tafon. This is a very very different fight and Devin will not be able to do what Tafon did. Azamat has very good wrestling and sambo so should be able to defend the take downs and the striking skill is not close. He will be faster and much more powerful and should be able to put it on Devin.

5. Nunes (Dec)
My only real concern for this fight is the fact that when this was last scheduled Nunes pulled out with a stomach bug. I hope she has recovered fully because I think she is going to dominate Calvillo. Her takedown defence and get up game is good (and when she got taken down by Dern that was after a long break from fighting and with all the baby issues) Even if Calvillo gets her to the ground as I am sure she will once or twice she will not be able to do what Dern did. On the feet Calvillo gets pieced up and picked apart. She also quit last fight which was a terrible look and now has an Only Fans. Fade Fade Fade.

6. Yasmin (KO)
I don't know a whole lot about her opponent (seems decent) but she is short notice and I know that Yasmin is good. I really expect her to win this fairly easily and become a prospect in the division. Yasmin tends to finish fights.

Gabriel Benitez vs Charlie Ontiveros 
Gabriel Benitez, SUB, R2
The Caliber of opponents that are beating Benitez are on such a different level from Ontiveros. Honestly can't think of a reason why Ontiveros is still in the UFC out of all 8 of his losses he has been finished every time and I believe he will be finished once again in this spot. His defense is non existent although he does throw wild strikes at times, it may make Benitez hesitant at first but Benitez should be smart enough to take to the ground and get the job done there.

Why a pick about the fight can be changed after the weight ins? What do you see in the weight ins that chainge your mind about the fighter's skills

Quite a lot actually bro. If the fighter looks really dehydrated or unsteady thats may mean a bad cut, also if anyone needs to use the box that's a worry. Also sometimes you can just look at them and tell they are in trouble.

Also in the faceoffs you can get quite a lot of good info, including size difference and attitude on fight day. It can mean something.

I'd recommend you watch DiehardMMA's post weigh in show (It's called the Undefeated Weigh In Show). Clint who hosts it does tend to overcall things and read too much into things, but it's still good insight. He also does a prop show called Total Takedown which is a really good breakdown of over unders. I rate that prop show especially. 

The thing about Quinlan is that the science is clear. What he tested positive for in the past (whether you think he cheated or had a tainted supplement (a real problem right now)) stays in your system in trace amounts for years. And this was such a fractional positive, that USADA knows to ignore it. Hence why Dana simply moved the fight out of the local commission. 

Call him a cheat, but this drug test isn't evidence of anything new.

https://www.delinquentmma.com/post/ufc-vera-vs-cruz-betting-guide

I don't know man.
Maybe you are right.
I personally never saw weight ins or face offs before. And I don't have a problem with picks or betting.
I always count the ability of the fighter.

Lukasz Brzeski vs Martin Buday 
Martin Buday, TKO, R2 
Really not been that impressed by either man, although the clinch work from Buday will play a factor in this fight because of the huge weight deficit. I can see as the fight goes on Brzeski will start to gas out because of it and Buday pouring more pressure on with the volume of his strikes aswell leading to a knockout for him halfway through the second round.

I can’t believe onama is -300 right now. He should win but man, idk if he should be that big of a favorite after last fight; his striking defense is an issue 

Nunes vs. Calvillo
Nina Nunes, DEC
Definitely a dog or pass situation. I'll stay away from this fight from a betting perspective. Not even sure how this fight made it this far up the card. Both ladies are coming off losing streaks. I suppose the wrestling edge goes to Calvillo. I feel Nunes can out strike her. should just be a greasy decision so I'll go with Nunes but I'm not confident in this fight at all.

Jauregui vs. Lucindo
Yazmin Jauregui, DEC
Should be a fun scrap between two young female prospects making their debut. Wasn't able to get much film from Lucindo, but she seems to be a pretty strong grappler with a grinding ground and pound style. Jauregui is a very aggressive striker that will walk you down and swarm you with pressure. My lean is Jauregui in this spot. I think she can use her footwork and throw some volume. If this fight gets to the mat, I would assume favors Lucindo. but I think Jauregui will be able to get up and keep this primarily standing.

Brooo I love Die Hard! It sucks that he’s in a slump right now though. 

does anyone know how blackshear is 

****, at least definitely not UFC level imo

@Baron do you think he stands any chance against zalal then because i dont find zalal to be bad 

Onama vs. Landwehr
David Onama, TKO, R1
close fight odds are too high on onama as nate is a ******* dog but i think onama finds it early and puts nate out

Nunes vs. Calvillo
Nina Nunes, DEC
take the dog or stay away

Jauregui vs. Lucindo
Yazmin Jauregui, TKO, R2
yazmin seems like a good prospect

Hill vs. Godinez
Lupita Godinez, DEC
hill cant win a fight and loopy has found herself

Zalal vs. Blackshear
Da'Mon Blackshear, DEC
just gonna take the dog here **** it he seemed to have relentless wrestling

Witt vs. Quinlan
Josh Quinlan, TKO, R1
steroid man gets the ko

Lipski vs. Cachoeira
Ariane Lipski, DEC
id stay away from this one because of how lipski looked on the scales last week