UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Font was 138.5

Fighters who miss weight are 50/50 historically. They have it archived on betmma.tips. where a bad cut could hinder you a weight advantage in cage (which you assume they have) can help you. I wouldn't go max betting chito just because font missed. If you like him prior to the weigh INS that's fine. 

it depends on the fighter. some guys(steven peterson) will not try their hardest to make the weight and come with an advantage come fight day.

some will really go for it(aspen ladd) and could be compromised because of it.

idk what font looks like. but if he tried his absolute best and missed the weight then that could compromise him

I only remember Moicano and the fight was at catchweight. @Tieoken

@jreynolds
True, like cowboy oliveria against will brooks where he weighed in at 161.5, clearly hadn't even tried to cut and preceded to finish Brooks. I think this favours Chito tbh as it makes it seem like something bad happened in Fonts camp

Does anyone use Bovada? Are you able to parlay props/totals on there or only ML? I swear it let me include props before but now it's only MLs

Fighters who missed weight last year were 14-13. Among the winners, the favorites were 9-3 .... Paulo Costa was the last main event to miss weight, but the fight was at light heavyweight .... Fact... On the same day of UFCVEGAS 53 last year Luana Carolina (fighter who missed weight) won the fight.  

You can parlay props but it has to be a certain amount of them, can’t be too many nor too less, it’s weird

I have 6 MLs, green/lainessse dngtd, Romanov/Sherman dngtd, and tiara by sub or decision. And none of the 6 MLs are involved with the fights for those 3 props. Anything stick out to why that isn't working? 

Rob Font (138.5)* vs. Marlon Vera (136)
* Font missed bantamweight limit by 2.5 pounds; fined 20 percent of purse>

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 3:24 PM ET *

Yeah I’m not sure, Bovada has some weird betting standards

I'll try again later. Maybe it's just in leeway of them updating lines. Or maybe they cut out props close to right day. Because I was setting these up throughout the week just to see what odds would be and it would let me parlay whatever. Just now I'm going to put the bets in it's not letting me. Weird

Thanks for doing that info dive @DC and @JoseLobo.

And as always, thank you @Card for the putting up the photos. You're a beast.

Alexander Romanov vs Chase Sherman 

Romanov SUB RD 1 

Not really anything to say here. This is a baaaaaaad mismatch. I think romanov has a pretty padded record for someone who is about to be 16-0, but he can wrestle quite well along with his good ground came so thats enough to get him far in the HW division. If he improves his cardio and striking (which it looks like hes lost a ton of weight, he looks great) I think he could be a top prospect. I dont really like his striking. Its kind of sloppy and he is quite hittable, but im not really too worried here. I want to say sherman has a punchers chance but he honestly has pillowfists for someone with 14/15 wins by ko. He also has a fraudulent 70% tdd. Most of his tds that he defended were from the cans that he beat and we all saw how easily collier took him down. ROmanov is an incredible wrestler and i think he will get sherman down with relative ease. I suppose romanov could get a gnp ko, but he is always looking for a sub on the ground and I think we could even see his patented forearm choke due to sherman’s lack of preparation and ground awareness. 

Daniel Da Silva vs Francisco Figuireido 

Da Silva KO RD 1

So this one seems simple, but its honestly a mess. Little figgy does not fight like his brother; he has the same striking stance, but he does not have the power and is more of a grappler. He doesnt throw a ton of volume and stays pretty hittable because hes got the figgy stance without the figgy skill. For what its worth, he has good tdd, but he can be taken down and ive seen him reversed against pretty poor guys. However, he could win this fight off of cardio, or at least make it a draw. Da silva reminds me of a flyweight randy costa with a more diverse skillset. He tries to kill you from the opening bell and hes pretty much first round or bust. All this being said, he is very skilled but has no control of his gas tank. On the feet, he is super aggressive and throws all types of spinning attacks or kill shots and throws everything will full power. He also is a black belt and has some wrestling in his toolbox. Hes just as aggressive on the ground as he is on the feet; in his most recent win, he took his opponent down in the first couple seconds, and then gnp’d him for about 3 minutes straight until the fight got called off. If hes the one getting taken off of his back, hes also very active. He will throw lots of elbows off of his back and has a bunch of triangles and armbars off of his back. Now, I love the activity from him, but he does not have a good gas tank. He was out-grappling jeff molina for most of the first round and once molina escaped (about 3 minutes in iirc) he laid on top of da silva for the rest of the round. Once it got to the second, he basically just walked into a punch and got himself koed. Now, figgy is not really a ko threat but he could sub him if da silva gets lazy. I dont rate little figgy tho. 

Yohan Lainesse vs Gabe Green 

Green SUB RD 2 

I think this is actually one of the better fights on the the card. Both these guys are always violent af. Green is actually a solid fighter but he has very poor fight iq. On the feet, hes a brawler; he gives you 0 breathing room and throws constant leg kicks and works the body overall. Now, i dont like how hittable he is, especially against someone with lainesse’s power. We saw he can take great advantage of people with bad striking defense when he fought bunlinson on the contender series. Honestly, Gabe green kind of reminds me of burlinson. He also has a very good ground game. Its deceptive but he constantly attacks heel hooks and he can chain subs together very well on the ground. For Yohan, I really like what I see from him overall, but he also has things I dont like. He is a kickboxer who likes to fight at a distance and try and land kill shots. I would say hes technical but hes not really, he will just try and take your head off after landing a couple good strikes to the body or legs. However, he does have a good variety of strikes, i dont want to downplay that. His tdd and sub defense also looks solid and ive seen him get some good takedowns of his own and even attack submissions. However, Yohan’s own striking defense isnt that great. When he fought evan cutts, he kept trying to land an overhand right and was getting his face beaten up. He did win the fight but its not good to just see him be sloppy; you can only get so far with ko power. The biggest criticism I have against him is his gas tank. As early as 4 minutes into a fight Yohan will start to gas. He has always been able to make it to a decision when necessary but i really dont like that against a cardio machine who doesnt give you breathing room. Yohan doesnt fully gas but the stance changes, the movement and fancy strikes slow down, basically you can tell and i think its a bad style matchup for him. However, he does have good power and green could be stupid enough to just eat a shot and get koed. 

Natan Levy vs Mike Breeden 

Levy SUB RD 2 

I think Levy will win this fight, but i think the odds are kind of weird. Im not totally sure where levy is in terms of skill level. He has a really well rounded game but he didnt look all that great in his debut. Granted, rafa is a solid fighter but i suppose levy is a little green. However, breeden himself is also green. Despite being older and having more experience, he hasnt looked like hes learned that much since his original dwcs experience. Breeden is mostly a striker. He has decent power but when i watch his regional fights i get pretty frustrated because he will hurt his opponents and then it becomes a long, drawn out process where he takes like 40 second to get the finish. Breeden’s stirking defense is also really bad; he got pieced up by anthony romero and then hernandez absolutely wiped the floor with him. Breeden just doesnt block shots. I will say, Breeden actually has pretty good tdd so that could make things interesting for the grappler in levy. Levy can strike and grapple but hes still pretty green in those areas. On the feet, hes got a karate background and even though he is low volume, he is pretty good at finding the target. However, he will sometimes overcommit on a strike and get clipped. His chin is ok for the most part but i ahev seen him hurt before. To be honest, if Breeden hurts him, the way most of his ko’s go, i think levy will be able to clinch up for the most part and breeden will give him too much time to recover. Breeden does have good tdd but levy is quite strong. He doesnt rush anything on the ground and is able to use his strength to muscle people to the ground. His bjj is pretty solid and I dont really know the extent of breedens knowledge on the ground so i think levy will finish him. 

Gina Mazany vs Shana Young 

Young DEC 

This is such a greasy fight, I hate it. Both fighters are very low level and mazany specifically has a hole that can be exploited but i dont know if shana is actually skilled enough to finish her lol. Mazany is all offense and no defense. On the feet, she gets hit to hit her opponent and she really doesnt take damage that well. She is actually a decent wrestler, but shes not able to hold her opponents down for very long amount of time (hence the high number of takedowns she scores in her fights) and she can be taken down pretty easily herself. The biggest hole in her game however is her gas tank. As long as her opponent is tough and gives some resistance to her wrestling, she will eventually gas out. Plus, shes also fighting at 125 instead of her normal class, 135 (so is young but at least she has fought there before the ufc where mazany has just recently gone down) so that makes her gas tank even worse. For young theres really not much good to say. She doesnt have good striking, she doesnt have a good ground game, and shes not really ufc level (neither is mazany tho). However, she is decently tough. Shes been, quite frankly, outclassed in most of her ufc fights but shes also been fighting way better competition then you have mazany who is gassing and losing to people like cachoiera. Even though she lost, young did have some success in reversing alpar so im hoping she can at least create scrambles to gas out mazany. This pick is a reach but i think it has a good chance of happening. 

Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario 

Taira DEC 

Most people have sub but i actually think this will go to the scorecards. Despite candelario having a pretty rough weight cut, his sub defense is quite good. When he fought pac man, he basically outstruck him on the feet while defending sub and td attempts the whole fight. Now, thats pretty much how i see this fight going except is see taira winning. Candelario has wrestling in his back pocket, but i dont see him using it offensively, only to scramble or get back up after getting taken down. Candelario has horrendous tdd but he does have a good get up game. Still, this just seems like a bad matchup for him. Taira isnt a great striker, but he has some solid power. Its not horrible striking, but its nothing very flashy. Carlos is the much better striker so if taira decides to start out on the feet it could get bad. Taira is a very good wrestler however. He fights in a shootboxing style and has very good wrestling and bjj. He has beautiful transitions and once he gets his opponents down hes very good at holding them down. He could get a sub because carlos had a tough cut, but carlos has shown pretty good sub defense and awareness on the ground thus far, so i see this going to the cards.

Rob Font vs Chito Vera 

Font DEC 

Now yes, Font had a bad weight cut in what was already going to be a close fight, but im still going with him. Yes, there is a lot of bias in this choice, but i really do think he is better than vera. Chito is a good fighter but he is very inconsistent. Hes winning fights but what I mean by this is sometimes the output just isnt there. Hes also pretty hittable because he likes to brawl. Chito has a very versatile striking arsenal but he does get hit a lot. He also will sometimes just not throw enough volume and rely on a late finish to win. I know font had the bad weight cut and aldo made him look very chinny, but I really do not see chito getting a ko. I could maybe see a sub but again, its much easier said than done. Chito isnt a great wrestler but he does have it in his pocket. If he does go for takedowns, font has a great get up game so i dont see marlon taking the aldo patch to victory. Aldo made font look like he had 0 grappling but in reality its a lot harder to do that to font than you would think. I think chito will come to brawl anyways. Font is the much more technical striker and he fights behind his jab. His jab is one of the best in the ufc and hes able to land on it consistently. Font is also very high volume and works the legs and body very well too. It will be close, but i think font will pick chito apart for 5 rounds. 

Andrei Arlovski vs Jake Collier 

Collier KO RD 2

Here is my hot take this week. I think its really cool seeing andrei have success at such an old age. Its even more special when you factor in people were calling for retirement years ago. Because of all his experience, hes changed from trying to finish the fight and has adapted his style into point fighting. Andrei’s cardio and chin havent improved, he has just mastered how to throw effective strikes and win on the scorecards because of his experience. However, I think father time will catch him eventually. While I dont have any reason to fade him, I dont think collier is a good matchup for him. Collier may not be very good, but hes got a lot of qualities that make him stand out more than your average **** HW. Collier used to be a MW; because of that, he is faster than most HWs and he has been surprisingly high volume thus far. Collier does not have good technique and he is pretty hittable, which could be concerning because that is how andrei has dealt with most sloppy volume punchers thus far. However, in his most recent fight he looked pretty improved. Yes, it was against the ultimate can chase sherman, but collier got right in his face and didnt show respect and was able to land heavy and then get a takedown and get a finish there. I think if he fights the same way, it will make andrei uncomfortable and he will get a finish. Andrei’s chin is still the same, if you hit him hard enough, you can crack. We saw chase sherman hurt him pretty badly, but didnt have the iq or gas tank to finish. I really think collier will step on the gas pedal if he hurts andrei. He also said he would wrestle if he saw the opportunity and while andrei has good tdd, if collier catches him off guard like he did chase then he could get a td and finish there too. 

Andre Fili vs Joanderson Brito 

Fili KO RD 2 

I actually feel pretty good about a fili finish here. Brito is a tough guy but he is such a brawler. He relies on his power to get him the win and disregards striking technique and defense. Fili is somewhat of a brawler himself, but he is much more effective at it than brito. In fact, this matchup is just weird in the first place; if brito had beaten algeo i would feel more confident in him winning this but he heavily disappointed me in that fight. I wasnt surprised that he lost, but he shown poor fight iq. He gassed out and when he had algeo on the ropes, he went for takedowns instead of a finish. Now, I suppose he does have a punchers chance on the feet because fili has shown to be httiable sometimes but i think fili is the overall better striker and he has way more experience than brito does. I mean fili is a guy whos always one win away from top 15 and hes fighting a dwcs guy who lost his debut; just seems crazy from a matchmaking standpoint. From a stylistic standpoint, I get it tho. I thought brito had some skill but hes been pretty disappointing so far in the ufc. Idk if hes just a can crusher or if he just hasnt found his footing yet but he looked good on tape. He would utlize his ground game more and had pretty slick bjj. I think andre may ko him because brito is very hittable and fili’s striking looked sooooooo good against pineda before the eyepoke. If you make yourself hittable against fili, he will tee off on you.  

Jared Gordon vs Grant Dawson 

Dawson KO RD 3 

This is the hardest fight on the card to call for me. Ive been switching between this pick all week but i think i have settled on Dawson. Dawson is a really good prospect and hes switched camps from one good one to another in ATT. I think dawson has really good potential, but hes very unrefined imo. Hes been able to have this much success thus far because his wrestling base is very very good, but the overall skillset needs some sharpening before he can hang with the big boys. His striking is okay but it gets kind of sloppy sometimes. Because of this, he also gets hit a lot more than he should be. His wrestling can also be sloppy sometimes but hes able to counter this because he grapples like hes glue. Once hes on you, hes very hard to get off. He will chain wrestle you and he also has good bjj. His body triangle is very tight and hes always readjusting it so he makes it very difficult to get out. Hes also finished 11 fights by sub so hes dangerous there as well. If he didnt gas out in his last fight, I would be pretty confident in him winning here. Its weird because ive seen his other decisions and while he does slow down, he was still able to notch takedowns and outstrike his opponents to win the fight. However, ricky glenn has a knack for gassing out prospects (see the gavin tucker fight) so maybe that was just a one off performance or maybe dawson just fought the one guy who knew how to out scramble him. It is concerning though because jared gordon can bring the fight to him everywhere. Jared gordon is a very underrated prospect. I think the biggest thing that sets him back is his chin. Its not glass, but hes lost all 4 of his fights by ko. Dawson isnt really a ko threat, but he has some power and he has been spending time at Sanford/ATT so that may help improve on his striking. Jared just has to protect himself because he has been koed by pretty much exclusively bjj guys in the ufc. Jared is a beast on the feet however. He throws high volume and despite the chin issues, protects it quite well with his 59% striking defense. He utilizes lots of leg kicks (something i have seen dawson struggle with before like when he fought julian erosa) and throws lots of combinations to the body and head. Jared’s weakness comes in grapplers but hes got good enough bjj and wrestling to be competitive, which is why i fear my dawson pick in this spot. Jared gordon has great cardio from training at Sanford and for the most part its held up (besides the silva fight where the body shots started to kill him but he was also throwing insane volume that whole fight) so if he scrambles and stuffs the takedowns, dawson could start to slow down (I really have no idea what will happen because im SURE they went straight to work on that after the glenn draw). Gordon will likely give up lots of takedowns but it will be interesting to see the ground work. Most people have a very hard time getting up when they fight dawson and gordon did get controlled for half the fight when he fought solecki. Gordon is also a brown belt under john danaher so i really dont see him getting subbed here. Gordon wins this fight the same way he beat solecki; where he got grappled for half the fight until solecki gassed, and then he could kind of take over. However, I think dawson is young and will learn from that glenn draw. I think he will be able to outgrapple gordon and maybe get a ko. However, a gordon upset would not surprise me in the least. 

Darren Elkins vs Tristan Connelly

Elkins DEC 

So this is a pretty weird one. Connelly is one of those “how did they end up in the ufc” guys. Hes old and hasnt fought that much, but hes most known for being the 145er who beat michel pereira on short notice. He won the fight but it was one of those flukey, circus show fights that we see every now and then. He had a long layoff and came back to fight a beast in patrick sabatini who beat his ass everywhere. Conelly isnt a great striker, but hes very good at getting comeback submissions; most of his wins are 3rd round or later finishes. I dont think he will be able to sub darren elkins because, as much tread as there may be on the tires, he can still defend submissions well. Darren elkins can also wrestle and he has still maintained his cardio too. My one problem is “the damage” doesnt take damage all that well anymore. He looked absolutely terrible against cub but luckily, cub is far ahead skill wise than conelly. Darren’s chin has been cracked even in his past two wins, but he was able to outpace his opponents. I think thats what going to happen here. Connelly lost all that weight he put on against pereira and he looked pretty chinny at his actual weight class too. He also didnt look very good at stopping take downs. Granted, sabatini is a beast wrestler but thats not a good sign against someone like elkins. The striking exchanges may get ugly, but i trust elkins to just spam takedowns and out pace connelly. 

Krystof Jotko vs Gerald Meerschaert 

Meerschaert SUB RD 3 

I actually really like this fight. Despite jotko being an incredibly dull fighter, he knows how to win fights and gerald always has entertaining fights (or at least they end in finishes). Jotko is a very solid vet but he showed he cant really beat top 15 guys so he remains the stepping stone for the next level. When you look at his record, hes really not being great fighters as only his 4 most recent wins are names i even recognize. I dont want to take away from his skill, but hes not beating the best level of people. Jotko is a point fighter and he has a great selection of strikes. One thing that was really interesting to me is jotko’s tdd. On paper, it looks fantastic but the more you get into it, the more it looks like gerald will be able to get him down easier. Jotko has many fights where hes defended more than 10 takedowns but at lot of them are against horrible wrestlers/people with poor ground games. Even when he fought the first real grappler in a while in misha cirkunov, he was able to defend most takedowns but gave up 5 in the third round. One thing that really stood out to me was the strike count; jotko somehow was even on significant strikes with misha cirkunov. I know gerald isnt a great striker, but hes definitely better than misha. Gerald has basic kickboxing skills but he should have beaten eryk anders in what was primarily a stand up affair. Gerald is not a great wrestler, but he is always able to get the fight where he wants. He was able to get makhmud muradov down multiple times who, despite the performance, has pretty good tdd. One thing i dont like about Gerald is he is always submission over position. He has pretty high level bjj but he was giving up rounds to stolzfus before getting the comeback sub. However, I really think gerald will find way; I think hes a lot better than people give him respect for.

Hahahaha Font didn't make weight. 🤣😭

Before I go off on my own and try to start a DFS style thread. I thought I'd see if a lot of people do DK/FanDuel here.

Who are you core plays and who are your dark horses for points? 

Personally my weird play is I have opposite lineups with Lainesse and Gabe Green. Green has stellar output and I think he scores way above par with a win even if he doesn't get a finish, and on the other side Lainesse is live for an early KO. Considering they are both cheap and both guaranteed earners with a win I had to have plays with both of them.

Then I also have Font in a lot of my safe lineups because even in a loss his output will almost certainly earn his chalk in points.

do you play any cash games (dubs or 50/50 or triple ups) and if so do you employ the stack the main even strategy. A loser with 5 rounds better than a loser with 3 rounds type of approach if you see the main event going to decision? 

Dont be afraid to stack a fight in a GPP either. wins way more than you'd think. One of my subscribers shipped the big GPP back in 2020 for 120K all because he stacked Algeo and Lamas in the same line. Algeo was by far the highest scoring loser that night and even outscored a few winners with his output. 

https://twitter.com/SharkHuntersDFS/status/1299920784635441153?s=20&t=pKYN5DpxASWbdTwvx--W_Q

* Edited at 04.29.2022, 4:39 PM ET *

I usually play 3-5 GPP and do the same # in higher stake double ups or single entry game. I'm positive in those, but very down when considering GPP on average. Had a few good hits $100+ but mostly a lot of losses. I prioritize big points and who I think could be big points but less overall picks over confidence in the GPP. I had to talk myself out of the Jotko ledge on this fight, because I think he's going to be a very low drafted pick for his price. But ultimately I think he's just going to average 70-80 points even with a win and it's not worth the salary at that point.
I'm considering stacking Font and Vera in one GPP. But Lainesse vs Green are in opposite plays in the $15 GPP. One will score high and the other probably very low lol.

My most fun GPP line i have so far is Romanov Taira Font Collier Gordon Connelly. Not many attempt to play 3 dogs in one line. Risk reward. but if the dogs are barking tomorrow it could be great