UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Yeah Moises is not a big lightweight but that's in my opinon where BSD's advantages ends. Well that and being a home favorite in front of a fanatical crowd but I don't expect that part of it to face a vet like Moises.
I could see BSD go out there and just blitz Moises who tends to fight cautiously. But BSD will have get it done in rd 1 or Moises will take over with a striking toolbox that includes striking defense, something that BSD had none of, as well as superior grappling skills and likely better cardio as well.

Gane vs. Spivac
Ciryl Gane, TKO, R3
Ciryls gonna keep his range and dog him

Fiorot vs. Namajunas
Manon Fiorot, DEC
I think Fiorot can piece her up

Saint-Denis vs. Moisés
Benoit Saint-Denis, SUB, R1
Saint-Denis is an animal! This will be a great one

Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Volkan Oezdemir, TKO, R2
Slug fest, can see it either way

Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
William Gomis, TKO, R3
Gomis

Charriere vs. Zecchini
Morgan Charriere, TKO, R2
Charriere shows the young buck up

Lapilus vs. Loughran
Taylor Lapilus, DEC
Lapilus the certified hype train stopper

Loosa vs. McKee
Ange Loosa, DEC
I see Loosa taking him down and not trying to stand with McKee. Lowkey hoping McKee cracks him but I think it goes to decision.

Cornolle vs. Edwards
Nora Cornolle, TKO, R2
Edwards is getting knocked, god she's boring

Basharat vs. Rodrigues
Farid Basharat, DEC
Basharat

Fairn vs. Cavalcanti
Jacqueline Cavalcanti, DEC
Cavalcanti

I was joking about the Loosa part. He probably wins. But it will be close

Fiorot vs. Namajunas
Manon Fiorot, DEC
Pat Barry wanted Rose to move up because he wants more Bunda. But that will slow her down.

Saint-Denis vs. Moisés
Benoit Saint-Denis, DEC
BDS is a bad man.

Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Bogdan Guskov, TKO, R1
It's tiiiiimmmmeeeeee ... for No Time. Retire.

Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
William Gomis, DEC
Thrmey aren't giving Gomis a fight he will lose. Wrestling upside too

Charriere vs. Zecchini
Morgan Charriere, TKO, R2
Pirate eats vegetable

Lapilus vs. Loughran
Taylor Lapilus, DEC
Another over rated CW guy

Loosa vs. McKee
Ange Loosa, DEC
Another over rated CW guy

Cornolle vs. Edwards
Nora Cornolle, DEC
Cornholio wins

Basharat vs. Rodrigues
Farid Basharat, DEC
Coming up a weight class against a Basharat? No thanks

Fairn vs. Cavalcanti
Jacqueline Cavalcanti, DEC
The question is will there be a finish or not?

I like Loosa in this fight but I don't like how he looked on the scale. Came in late, made weight with help of the screen but looked quite drained and stressed at the same time. I'll be interested to see how his cardio holds up if it goes long.
I could seer Rhys drag him into deep waters and drowning him. On the other hand if a member of the audience coughs without covering their mouth it might put Rhys on his back if he hasn't already been dropped from his habit of sticking his chin in the air and eating punches.

I could see the Loosa/McKee fight being one of those decisions where it comes down to control vs damage. The way I see the fight going is Rhys throwing everything he can on the feet, stinging Loosa here and there, and getting taken down and control for a couple of minutes each round. 

Could legitimately see Rhys being the first guy to finish Loosa too. I know he survived JDM, but Ange has been getting rocked in pretty much every fight since before his contender series showing, his recovery is what's been saving his ass each time. Nearly getting put out by Artem reach Fletcher is a pretty bad look, but maybe that was just a really poor showing by Ange, we'll see.

Gane vs Spivac
Cyril Gane, TKO, R2
Here they are. The results of UFC France. Why do you think they made this match in France? Easy. French put Garlic into everything. So the Vampire will be weak. Gane wins.

* Edited at 09.01.2023, 4:52 PM ET *

Gane v Spivac will be a onesided affair whoever wins. Perfect for backers of whoever wins to come on here and loudly proclaim that only absolute morons could have had such a silly idea as to pick the other guy.

Fiorot vs. Namajunas
Manon Fiorot, DEC
Efosa changes his pick to first rd KO Fiorot!

Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Bogdan Guskov, TKO, R2
"First round he's tired, 2nd round he plays dead" Mike

Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
Yanis Ghemmouri, DEC
Mike picks via split decision

@mmaparlay yeah he last fight was so concerning. That can was beating her to the punch in every exchange before doing whatever happened to her knee. It didn’t even look like Nora hit her

Due to the competitive decision contest between Erin Blanchfield and Taila Santos last week, I believe if the winner of this fight can find the finish, they can swoop in for the next title shot at Women’s Flyweight. This will be Namajunas’s first fight since losing her Strawweight title in a lackluster performance last summer to Carla Esparza and her Flyweight debut. However, she’s matched up with probably her most dangerous striking test since Jędrzejczyk. Will this be Namajunas’s reaching new heights at a new weight class or Fiorot’s continued dominance and the emergence of a new French MMA star?

Stand Up Phase: 
Whomever can control the striking exchanges will control most of this fight. Fiorot (SP) brings her unique Karate based kickboxing style into this with blistering combinations and a strong sidekick to keep distance. She also uses an OBK to attack her OPPs front leg, stifling them and disrupting their timing. Then she uses her own great timing to land quick jabs and combinations before moving back out of range from counters. Namajunas (OX) uses lots of movement and feints to confuse her OPPs allowing her to land jab and quick combinations. She mixes low and high attacks well which allows her to land devastating high kicks. Both have good head movement and are defensively sound when playing with range. I see Fiorot giving Namajunas many problems in the striking if Namajunas can’t address the sidekick and jab of Fiorot. Fiorot seems to have a clear speed advantage, so Namajunas would need to have better timing and movement to avoid the kicks or use a CH when Fiorot tries a sidekick to the knee. 

Clinch Phase:
Fiorot, being the naturally bigger fighter, will most likely use her strength advantage to overwhelm Namajunas in the clinch. Both have strong TD defense on the cage and in open space, but Fiorot seems to have more variety with TDs, being able to use throws and trips. Namajunas has good timing with shots and OLT which she can mix in with her striking to keep Fiorot guessing during striking exchanges. I predict Namajunas will have to mix in more strikes within the clinch to slow down Fiorot and find opportunities TDs. 

Ground Phase:
Namajunas has shown better control and variety of Subs on the ground in the past. Both are active when they are on bottom, electing to return to their feet quickly upon being taken down. When on top, Namajunas has shown better ability to advance position and guard passing. Fiorot seems content staying within her OPPs guard, but she lands the far more vicious GnP between the two. I believe Fiorot would choose to keep tight and find her feet instead of playing with Namajunas’s guard, however if Fiorot hurts Namajunas she will most likely go for the finish if it hits the ground. Namajunas has great control off her back and could make it very interesting by chaining a variety of Sub attempts, testing the Sub defense of Fiorot. 

Prediction: Namajunas wins by 2nd Round Sub
This is a hard one to predict due to Namajunas being able to reach insane heights when the lights are the brightest. I predict Namajunas having decent success on the feet, forcing Fiorot to make the choice of finding a TD in desperation. This will allow Namajunas the opportunity to scramble and find the submission. 

Abbreviations:
SP: Southpaw 
OX: Orthodox 
OBK: Oblique Kick 
OPP: Opponent 
CH: Check Hook 
TD: Takedown 
OLT: Outside Leg Trip 
GnP: Ground n pound

Now that you have given your seal of approval to Jocelyn Edwards I will be sure to pick her. Thank you

Gane vs. Spivac
Serghei Spivac, SUB, R1
I've changed my pick like 10 times with this fight but I have to go with Spivac. I think he's much improved and one takedown and it'll be over shortly after. Gane is very quick and Spivac hates to be hit but I just think at some point Gane will get tripped up by Spivac and it's game. I wouldn't be surprised if Gane just flatlines him though.

Fiorot vs. Namajunas
Rose Namajunas, DEC
I'm taking Rose for the upset. She can mix in grappling as well and as long as she doesn't take huge shots from Fiorot I think she can win this. Fiorot is good but she's gonna be exposed soon in the grappling. Rose is moving up so i don't know if she will be strong enough but we will see.

Saint-Denis vs. Moisés
Benoit Saint-Denis, TKO, R3
I think Saint-Denis can get a late finish here. Moises is more talented but Benoit is a dog and won't give up and doesn't have to worry too much about getting knocked out. I don't think he subs Moises but I think he can get him down, stay safe, and ground and pound him.

Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Volkan Oezdemir, TKO, R1
I actually think that Volkan can hurt Guskov very badly in the first round and finish him. We've seen Guskov give up and finished on the regional scene. That step up in competition is huge. From regional to top 10 pretty much.

Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
William Gomis, DEC
Gomis will make this very close per usual but he will get the job done.

Charriere vs. Zecchini
Morgan Charriere, DEC
I think this will be a close fight. I don't like looking at MMA records without going way into detail on them but 9 losses is a horrible look but I do think he's better than Manolo because Manolo likes to get overaggressive and that's going to get him taken right down.

Lapilus vs. Loughran
Taylor Lapilus, DEC
Lapilus is way better and has way more experience and went 3-1 in the UFC already. Stuff the takedowns and he wins this. Loughran is a can crusher but seems to be decent at doing that.

Loosa vs. McKee
Ange Loosa, DEC
I wanted to pick McKee but I just can't. If he worked on his tdd then I'd pick him to win but getting taken down with ease by striker Alex Morono is a horrible look. McKee has decent volume but lacks power. I do think McKee is talented though.

Cornolle vs. Edwards
Joselyne Edwards, DEC
Edwards should win due to having way more experience and has better striking. Coin flip though.

Basharat vs. Rodrigues
Farid Basharat, DEC
Farid has Rodrigues covered literally everywhere. Should win every round vs him. Rodrigues is a decent fighter but decent won't beat the Bash Bros.

Fairn vs. Cavalcanti
Jacqueline Cavalcanti, DEC
An amateur MMA fighter could probably beat Fairn..I think I'm joking? I'll never pick her to win a UFC fight. Cavalcanti is pretty good and she should roll here.

Fiorot x Namajunas and BSD x Moises are gonna be good opportunities for live betting imo.

I wasn't that much surprised with Fiorot' striking against Chookagian tbh. Rose is way better on the feet, but the problem with her is on the mental side. If she looks good in rd 1, I might put some money on her.

As for the BSD fight, I'll wait to see how Moises will deal with BSD's physicality and explosiveness in rd1. 

If Rose looks good in rd1 she will quickly be even money, then -200. That's the problem with livebetting a fighter that wins rd 1. 

Gane vs. Spivac
Ciryl Gane, TKO, R1
Gane keeps his distance with body kids and jabs for about 3 mins. Then he hurts the body and then styles on Spivak and puts a slow, plotty Spivak to sleep with ease.

Fiorot vs. Namajunas
Manon Fiorot, DEC
Fiorot, too big, too strong. Will dominate the clinch and out hustle rose in valuable scrambles. 29-28.

Saint-Denis vs. Moisés
Benoit Saint-Denis, SUB, R3
First two rounds will be close. Saint-Denis will shoot a couple takedowns and get one or two. Rounds will close. 3rd round Saint-Denis hurts him and gets the back finishes the RNC.

Oezdemir vs. Guskov
Volkan Oezdemir, DEC
Oezdemir will stay on the outside and win with volume. He will stay away from the power of Guskov. Guskov doesn't have much skill just lots of power.

Gomis vs. Ghemmouri
William Gomis, DEC
I can see Gomis losing this because his fights are always close. However, I think he will win with volume and land a bit more damage. 29-28.

Charriere vs. Zecchini
Morgan Charriere, TKO, R2
Charriere is a large favorite here. He hand speed is just exquisite, puts Zecchini out in 2 with a three piece combo.

Lapilus vs. Loughran
Caolán Loughran, DEC
Lapilus is just a bit of a bot imo. I think loughran will dominate in the pocket and come out with the decision. 29-28.

Loosa vs. McKee
Rhys McKee, TKO, R2
Ange Loosa like to swing with power. I can see McKee working the outside and countering off that power. McKee will get himself a knockdown in round 2 and secure the win. 30-27.

Cornolle vs. Edwards
Joselyne Edwards, DEC
Don't know either of these fighters. Edwards has the same nickname as Yair Rodriquez so I will go with her.

Basharat vs. Rodrigues
Farid Basharat, DEC
Rodrigues is dangerous but Basharat will stay on the outside and simply out-point him for 3 rounds. 30-27.

Fairn vs. Cavalcanti
Jacqueline Cavalcanti, DEC
Cavalcanti should get this 40 year old 6-5 figher outta there. Knowing womens mma she probably loses. I got her taking a split decision 29-28.

Yeah, I get that, but what I tried to say is that, if she looks good in rd 1, then I won't need to wait for the round to finish in order to bet her. 

If it was a technical thing about her, it would be way easier to figure it out, but we know the mental side plays a huge part in this game. That's why I didn't bet her yet. 

Fair enough, and if you're on a low delay that could be great. I can't rely on having low delay streams though, often it's 1 minute or so. I just lower the stake instead if a fighter isn't reliable.

I'm surprised Imavov is not on this card,  am I missing something!?