UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

LMFAO he changed it from China to russia

@sezmaster Jreynolds is the resident betting expert here. Come to him with betting tips 

look at Jreynolds man, so inspirational 

I think Canada gets two on this card. 

Zahabi is going to get the hometown love from the judges and Mallot shouldn't need more than 2 rounds to get rid of Fugitt, who is a decent opponent but not on his level anywhere IMO. 

@gliese58i 

appreciate the feedback. Working on that audio as we speak! Who you got tonight?! 

@Joshjeffords 

respect! Appreciate it! 

Someone get Ali on the phone we need to get Kid Dynamite booked for UFC Boston

Nunes vs. Aldana
Irene Aldana
knockout

Nunes vs. Aldana
Amanda Nunes, DEC
dog or pass

I don't know how everyone is giving Amanda that much of a chance. Similar to Valentina, her biggest asset is her fight IQ and gameplans; but their weapons are too limited, and rely too much in few weapons that sets up the rest of her game. Amanda depends on landing that initial calfkick, and when she's in trouble on the feet she relies on her takedowns (they're very good but also repetitive) that work on flatfooted opponents that have bad takedown defense or that are smaller (like Juli or Germaine). And it's proven that Irene's camp also has good strategies, and i'm sure they will come up with something to counter the few attacks that the champ has and that executes perfectly against lesser or more predictable opponents like Megan Anderson or Ronda Rousey (including that initial lowkick and the takedowns)

Irene, similar to her partner Alexa, has excellent takedown defense and superb clinch game, they have the best footwork in their respective divisions, and both arguably have better ground game compared to their striking. Aldana has very good side-to-side movement, which makes her very hard to shoot on her unless you're a 5'11 165-pounder with a 72-arm reach like Chiasson (and still Chiasson was arguably submitted with an armbar in the 1st round and then KO'd in the 3rd round). If Nunes takes her down, Aldana has an incredible guard also, and will land some elbows or land some upkicks from bottom after kicking away, so i won't be shocked if she submits Nunes in the later rounds. So i won't be shocked if Amanda fails every takedown or does nothing on the ground if she times 1 or 2 good takedowns

When it comes to standup, Amanda will start very good and spam her lowkick like she always does, and spam her overhand right. Probably uses southpaw stance in the 1st round, but will realize that is a bad idea cause it's not her forte and will need her 'a' game and traditional stance to fight an elite striker like this challenger has (Amanda could do that against Julianna cause Pena has low-level striking and with few variables). As soon as Amanda realizes those things don't faze Irene like it fazed every single opponent she had, cause Irene has a granite chin and excellent head movement and constant lateral footwork, Amanda will start to feel uncomfortable and everything will go down hill from there for the champ. I see Nunes breaking in this match, and it'll be as soon as she realizes her last weapon is nullified by Irene (the takedowns); reminiscing to Valentina using her last resort against Alexa (spinning kick) after Grasso completely nullified the rest of her attacks (left kick, right checkhook, clinch game, and double-leg takedown), resulting in a completely broken down Shevchenko getting finished

* Edited at 06.10.2023, 4:32 PM ET *

Edit: If you were asking what my bets are they are moneylines for Aoriqileng, Imavov and Olives.

* Edited at 06.10.2023, 4:28 PM ET *

@RustyTennakoon 

what’s a Hail Mary? Can you put lock next to ones you think are locks 

3 paragraphs to try and prove your point. Aldana was losing to Chiasson. If you think Nunes TDs and ground game is worse than Macy's I've got nothin for you

@JReynolds47 

First opponent

@JReynolds47 

what picks would you say are locks for this card?

Aldana has an arguably better ground game compared to her striking? she has an incredible guard? like??? am I getting baited or something? 

* Edited at 06.10.2023, 4:39 PM ET *